NL Cy Young Race: Arrieta vs. Greinke

[chibears55]

I am amazed when stats are silly unless it helps our guy win an award. :smh:

As of today the edge seems to be in Kershaw's favor. Better K's, Better k/9 Better BB/9, Better K:BB, better fWAR, better IP/GS, better FIP, Better xFIP, Second best scoreless streak of the three.

I tend to believe majority of voters still go by the old fashioned numbers for awards and HOF votes. .

For pitchers. .

Wins Era. Whip Ip. So. Cg. K. Qs.( not as old fashioned )

 

[brett05]

I tend to believe majority of voters still go by the old fashioned numbers for awards and HOF votes. .

For pitchers. .

Wins Era. Whip Ip. So. Cg. K. Qs.( not as old fashioned )

Given what has happened in recent years (King Felix) those days are gone it would appear.

 

[CSF77]

Grenke: 187.5 CYP (+12 for Dodgers leading the Division)
Arrieta: 177.5 (no bonus)
Kershaw: 155.7 (+12 also)

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).
VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Given what has happened in recent years (King Felix) those days are gone it would appear.

I tend agree with you but this could be closer than anyone thinks. Arrieta has a better FIP at 2.46 to Greinke's 2.72 and now less than 1/2 a run separates them in ERA. Arrieta could win as many as 21 or 22 games if he continues like he has while Greinke could hit 20. Wins shouldn't matter in Cy Young voting and obviously didn't with King Felix in the case you reference but will they here? Say they finish within within 1/4 run of each other. Will Greinke's incredible ERA + make the difference or will Arrieta's win total? I would put the odds against Arrieta at 70/30, with a lot of factors playing in, but I think it will be a very close race. Of course then you have Keith Law and Buster Olney shouting from the rooftops that it should be Kershaw over either one. This will be one of the most fascinating Cy Young races in many years.

 

[brett05]

Grenke: 187.5 CYP (+12 for Dodgers leading the Division)
Arrieta: 177.5 (no bonus)
Kershaw: 155.7 (+12 also)

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).
VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship

Uhm, What is this?

 

[brett05]

I tend agree with you but this could be closer than anyone thinks. Arrieta has a better FIP at 2.46 to Greinke's 2.72 and now less than 1/2 a run separates them in ERA. Arrieta could win as many as 21 or 22 games if he continues like he has while Greinke could hit 20. Wins shouldn't matter in Cy Young voting and obviously didn't with King Felix in the case you reference but will they here? Say they finish within within 1/4 run of each other. Will Greinke's incredible ERA + make the difference or will Arrieta's win total? I would put the odds against Arrieta at 70/30, with a lot of factors playing in, but I think it will be a very close race. Of course then you have Keith Law and Buster Olney shouting from the rooftops that it should be Kershaw over either one. This will be one of the most fascinating Cy Young races in many years.

I mean today as it stands I don't think it's that close for Arrieta. He's third. Kershaw dominates almost every category sans wins really and ERA. I agree it can be very close.
I said this last week, but there is now a change in it for me. The top three this year (Kershaw, Arrieta, Grienke) all are worthy Cy Young winners in just about any year. If you like pitching (I am a big time fan) than you have to be thrilled with what you are seeing.

Arrieta for MVP. That stance hasn't changed either.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I mean today as it stands I don't think it's that close for Arrieta. He's third. Kershaw dominates almost every category sans wins really and ERA. I agree it can be very close.
I said this last week, but there is now a change in it for me. The top three this year (Kershaw, Arrieta, Grienke) all are worthy Cy Young winners in just about any year. If you like pitching (I am a big time fan) than you have to be thrilled with what you are seeing.

Arietta for MVP. That stance hasn't changed either.

Arietta can't win the CY or MVP, but Arrieta can.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I mean today as it stands I don't think it's that close for Arrieta. He's third. Kershaw dominates almost every category sans wins really and ERA. I agree it can be very close.
I said this last week, but there is now a change in it for me. The top three this year (Kershaw, Arrieta, Grienke) all are worthy Cy Young winners in just about any year. If you like pitching (I am a big time fan) than you have to be thrilled with what you are seeing.

Arietta for MVP. That stance hasn't changed either.

For the sake of argument let's say Arrieta is an MVP candidate and he wins it. Would he be the first MVP winner to not make the All Star team?

I listened to Jon Heyman this morning and he thinks Bryce Harper is the overwhelming favorite for MVP playoffs or not. It's going to be interesting.

 

[Parade_Rain]

For the sake of argument let's say Arrieta is an MVP candidate and he wins it. Would he be the first MVP winner to not make the All Star team?

I listened to Jon Heyman this morning and he thinks Bryce Harper is the overwhelming favorite for MVP playoffs or not. It's going to be interesting.

Harper is the new Dawson.

 

[SilenceS]

Grienke has allowed 1ER or less in something like 16 games. That is pretty sick.

 

[brett05]

For the sake of argument let's say Arrieta is an MVP candidate and he wins it. Would he be the first MVP winner to not make the All Star team?

I listened to Jon Heyman this morning and he thinks Bryce Harper is the overwhelming favorite for MVP playoffs or not. It's going to be interesting.

Happens quite a bit actually. Here's Cy and MVP winners to not make the AS Game
2010 Felix Hernandez AL Cy Young
2007 Jimmy Rollins NL MVP
2006 Justin Morneau AL MVP
2004 Johan Santana AL Cy Young
1999 Chipper Jones NL MVP
1998 Sammy Sosa NL MVP
1996 Juan Gonzalez AL MVP
1996 Pat Hentgen AL Cy Young
1993 Greg Maddux NL Cy Young
1991 Terry Pendleton NL MVP
1990 Doug Drabek NL Cy Young
1989 Robin Yount AL MVP
1989 Bret Saberhagen AL Cy Young
1988 Kirk Gibson NL MVP
1987 Roger Clemens AL Cy Young
1985 Bret Sabergagen AL Cy Young
1984 Rick Sutcliffe NL Cy Young
1983 John Denny NL Cy Young
1983 LaMarr Hoyt AL Cy Young
1982 Pete Vuckovich AL Cy Young
1979 Mike Flanagan AL Cy Young
1979 Willie Stargell Co-NL MVP
1978 Dave Parker NL MVP
1978 Gaylord Perry NL Cy Young
1976 Jim Palmer AL Cy Young
1973 Jim Palmer AL Cy Young
1969 Mike Cuellar Co- AL Cy Young
1967 Mike McCormick NL Cy Young
1956 Don Newcombe NL MVP & Cy Young
1935 Hank Greenberg AL MVP

Bryce's numbers are out of this world and I agree that the Nats would be worse without him, but so would the Cubs and the Cubs are a playoff team.

 

[Mr. Cub]

1998 Sammy Sosa didn't make the All star team???

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Happens quite a bit actually. Here's Cy and MVP winners to not make the AS Game
2010 Felix Hernandez AL Cy Young
2007 Jimmy Rollins NL MVP
2006 Justin Morneau AL MVP
2004 Johan Santana AL Cy Young
1999 Chipper Jones NL MVP
1998 Sammy Sosa NL MVP
1996 Juan Gonzalez AL MVP
1996 Pat Hentgen AL Cy Young
1993 Greg Maddux NL Cy Young
1991 Terry Pendleton NL MVP
1990 Doug Drabek NL Cy Young
1989 Robin Yount AL MVP
1989 Bret Saberhagen AL Cy Young
1988 Kirk Gibson NL MVP
1987 Roger Clemens AL Cy Young
1985 Bret Sabergagen AL Cy Young
1984 Rick Sutcliffe NL Cy Young
1983 John Denny NL Cy Young
1983 LaMarr Hoyt AL Cy Young
1982 Pete Vuckovich AL Cy Young
1979 Mike Flanagan AL Cy Young
1979 Willie Stargell Co-NL MVP
1978 Dave Parker NL MVP
1978 Gaylord Perry NL Cy Young
1976 Jim Palmer AL Cy Young
1973 Jim Palmer AL Cy Young
1969 Mike Cuellar Co- AL Cy Young
1967 Mike McCormick NL Cy Young
1956 Don Newcombe NL MVP & Cy Young
1935 Hank Greenberg AL MVP

Bryce's numbers are out of this world and I agree that the Nats would be worse without him, but so would the Cubs and the Cubs are a playoff team.

Good work. I was just kind of wondering out loud. I guess I expected there would be some but that's quite a few.

 

[Parade_Rain]

1998 Sammy Sosa didn't make the All star team???

Nope.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/allstargame/history/results/_/year/1998

 

[CSF77]

Uhm, What is this?

On ESPN. Bill James came up with the equation.

 

[brett05]

On ESPN. Bill James came up with the equation.

I respect the heck out of James, but his equation seems ultra "winged" to me. Kill So, and make a stat like wins 6 times the value. My guess is very few use that when voting.

 

[CSF77]

I respect the heck out of James, but his equation seems ultra "winged" to me. Kill So, and make a stat like wins 6 times the value. My guess is very few use that when voting.

Modern era is not putting value into a pitcher winning games for a team. This era is too over concerned with what a pitcher is supposed to be doing (Fip) vs what he is doing (ERA)

That formula seems pretty balanced. Gives weight to wins and losses. IP and runs given up. SO's. Doesn't give weight to BB given up.

Not perfect but does cover a lot.

I do believe win/losses should be a factor when looking at the cy young. Modern era frowns on it but it is a traditional stat and the award was named after the all time wins leader. You can't just toss it out.

 

[CSF77]

Grenke: 187.5
Arreta: 177.5
Kershaw: 165.3

Regardless the equation pretty much is showing what most think. 3 horse race.

 

[brett05]

Grenke: 187.5
Arreta: 177.5
Kershaw: 165.3

Regardless the equation pretty much is showing what most think. 3 horse race.

It does, but it flips the tower a bit as right now Kershaw is number one. I showed the categories he is leading or dominating in.

I think win/loss has a weight in a season, more so long term than short but not to the excess James did it. He not only regards it but made it 6 times more powerful. Sad really for me.

Finally, Cy was way more than just wins.

 

[CSF77]

6*W - 2*L. So it is weighed heavy into wins but losses also factor but to a lesser degree.

I think he made this formula to keep the traditionalists at bay as they weigh wins ERA and SO as the top 3 stats. IP to a lesser degree as the formula factors in.

Not a fan that walks doesn't factor.

It is more of a old school based input. Some will look at it if on the border on who they pick.

My opinion is if Grenke keeps his ERA under 1.60 it is his. If not his other off stats are inferior to Arreta and Kershaw. Kershaw just has SO's as his power point. That weighs heavy into FIP. But that should not out weigh that he is not even in the top 3 in the NL in wins. I believe that factors him out.

Arreta leads in wins. Top 3 in SO and ERA. You have to look at the whole package and he is strong at all.

He has a clear shot at it.