Now that the season is over

[CSF77]

The new manager will know the best choices on the roster to lead off are Baez and Hoerner. This Rizzo shit needs to end. Hippie ball will end. You are being paid to be a middle of the order hitter and drive in runs, not walk and not get driven in.

You are paying Heyward 20 plus million a year and he cant hit in pressure situations. Yeah, great lineups, someone has to hit 7th, but you are not fielding 160 million dollars worth of position players yet.

It all adds up to terrible signings, starting with Heyward, saving dollars passing on the stones of Wade Davis, Chatwood, Darvish, the nose, deciding to pay Strop. its been one bad decision after another.

Theo and Jed seem to be accepting some responsibility by promoting Jason McLeod to the brain trust in free agent signings, I just cannot see any more coming. The only thing we do not know about this roster is how it will play when motivated differently, held accountable, reminded of guessing pitches with two strikes and getting called out. It will probably take a half a year to break this Maddon curse.

To be fair.

Yu Darvish 22M
Jason Heyward 21M
Craig Kimbrel 16M
Jon Lester 15M in 2020. down from 22.5 (saves 7.5M)
Anthony Rizzo $14.5M club option (or $2M buyout due 1/15/20)
Tyler Chatwood $13M
Kyle Hendricks $12M
Jose Quintana $10.5M club option ($1M buyout)
Daniel Descalso $2.5M
David Bote $950,000
124.95M
All they are locked into next year.

If they DFA Russell and Almora Jr and back fill with Nico and Kemp it makes a savings on Arb players.

Arb cases: Bryant expected 16M
Baez 8M
Schwarber: 6M
Happ Super2 so I would expect 2M

So Almora would be going into Arb1 and they should DFA him. Russell most likely gets 3M and same thing. DFA.

All said and done they would be at 156.95M before looking into rebuilding the pen and deciding on the OF and 1 SP.

On Heyward he was dragged down leading off. 47 wRC+ Everywhere else he was at 102 or higher.

Layman's terms: leading off 129 AB .147 BA. Every were else: .242 While not great it worked against him.

Rizzo put up a 216 wRC+ in his lead off stint. It was only 44 PA but all of his production spiked. SO/9 went down.

So it might be worth just letting him lead off next year because it works. They have Nico but I would rather have the sophomore slump not be leading off.

So in reality they can add 50M next year. If they try to stay in house with the pen as much as they can it will go far.

Kimbrel 9th
say they invest into Dellin Betances for the 8th.
Chatwood as a long relief.
Rest are controlled league min players. (6)

Pen might tack on 12 mil

Replacing Castellanos: This is the tricky part. If they went Brett Gardner 8M and Happ (2M) cheaper than resigning Nick (20-25M)

Rotation.

Going cheap it puts the budget at 176.95M. That puts them in play with Cole. Even 30M keeps them at 206M.

But we really don't know what direction Theo goes here. He might trade Schwarber for Whitt and try to push Nico into CF and change the dynamic of the team.

 

[anotheridiot]

Payroll salary to lester is still 20 million, the 5 million signing bonus goes to next years number as it has his entire career here. Last year he put us on the hook for 27.5 million.

The one guy that got extended this year was Bote, 15 million over 5 years, somehow that might have also ticked a few players off.

They just need to get these starters they have left on board with Contrares or hope the electronic zone happens sooner than later. Otherwise, Willson might be someone that needs to go.

 

[Steve_A]

Ryu has been stable sense returning.
Procello has been a even year pitcher now for 5 years. 148-118 4.36 ERA in the AL. That drops a run in the NL. I'm concerned with his 6.6 SO/9. That is not something to invest into.

Ryu has a 2.0 BB/9 and a 8.1 BB/9. You know who has that?
Kyle Hendricks 2.0 BB/9 7.6 SO/9

The top arm regardless if Stras opts out is Cole and he should get near 300M
Wheeler 3.3 BB/9 8.7 SO/9. He is a 80M arm.

So all said and done. If Ryu is undervalued? Good that means discount.

You just can't swallow things can ya?

Ryu's era on the road is one run higher / his strike out rate falls by 3 points on the road /
3 years of 150 innings plus in his career / 33 year old injury prone guy / does not scream a must add.

Discount or not he's too risky.

 

[CSF77]

You just can't swallow things can ya?

Ryu's era on the road is one run higher / his strike out rate falls by 3 points on the road /
3 years of 150 innings plus in his career / 33 year old injury prone guy / does not scream a must add.

Discount or not he's too risky.

I feel you on this and if he is looking for more than 5/80 Hard pass

The reason to add is because he knows how to pitch and that ages well.

 

[Ari Bear]

1. They did ok keeping Kintzler around, I would say its one or the other. They hurt themselves using Phelps so much, it kicked his option to 5 million.

2. Q was our strongest pitcher for a while, its really sad to say, but we have an all star catcher and it seems like the only starter that wants to throw to him is Lester so Willson can field everything. He is our 3 now so since they wont let Rea or Mills or Alzolay earn a rotation spot, pretty sure Q will stay.

3. No, should have let Hamels walk this year. Maybe he will sign for 12, I dont think he will get more than that elsewhere.

4. No free agents. Nico gets second base, no room for anyone else. They might deal Schwarber, sign Nick to play left and find a center fielder, but it wont be a big name. Heyward needs to play right field.

5. anyone but Joe. I wish they would have talked Rossy into managing in Iowa to get some experience.

6. Better because of a new voice, no participation ribbons and someone that knows how to handle a bullpen.

Number 4 doesn't make us better.
Number 3 Q? He is good to have in the bottom of the rotation. That's it.

 

[CSF77]

Number 4 doesn't make us better.
Number 3 Q? He is good to have in the bottom of the rotation. That's it.

For 10.5M he put up decent production. He is getting shit because of his cost. And honestly this is a hard reason why Tom Ricketts should move on from Theo.

He is doing the same mistakes that he did with Boston. Came in and kicked ass then trades killed him.

 

[anotheridiot]

Number 4 doesn't make us better.
Number 3 Q? He is good to have in the bottom of the rotation. That's it.

Are you ever going to give a legitimate shot for Mills, Rhea or Alzolay to earn a spot in the rotation?

That is the achilles heel of this club, developing starting pitching. Had one in Cease, dealt that away, Mills seems to do well, so did Underwood for 4 innings last year, Underwood got delegated to the pen in Iowa, started this year with a consecutive outs streak, never got brought up.

But, lets get out there and get Cole, Rhea, Wheeler, woulda coulda shoulda with Verlander last year. Do you really believe a team that has fallen on their faces for two years straight with a top payroll in baseball is going to follow the same course and still have mad spending? I hate to break it to you, but its not going to matter with the network, fans are going to get it whether a retool, rebuild or rerun happens.

There is going to be 1 extra player on the roster next year, but then a cap that you can only have 13 pitchers, who need to work both sides of the plate now with a three hitter minimum. The only way you get around that is last out of an inning. But whoever somebody will need to get two or all three outs in an inning

 

[CSF77]

Are you ever going to give a legitimate shot for Mills, Rhea or Alzolay to earn a spot in the rotation?

That is the achilles heel of this club, developing starting pitching. Had one in Cease, dealt that away, Mills seems to do well, so did Underwood for 4 innings last year, Underwood got delegated to the pen in Iowa, started this year with a consecutive outs streak, never got brought up.

But, lets get out there and get Cole, Rhea, Wheeler, woulda coulda shoulda with Verlander last year. Do you really believe a team that has fallen on their faces for two years straight with a top payroll in baseball is going to follow the same course and still have mad spending? I hate to break it to you, but its not going to matter with the network, fans are going to get it whether a retool, rebuild or rerun happens.

There is going to be 1 extra player on the roster next year, but then a cap that you can only have 13 pitchers, who need to work both sides of the plate now with a three hitter minimum. The only way you get around that is last out of an inning. But whoever somebody will need to get two or all three outs in an inning

Internal pitching option are better off starting out in long relief then dominating then forcing upper management to give him a opertunity.

Mills is ok. But as a MLB starter then the league will adjust. And then the true ugly will come out.

Alozay had issues last year in his rebound. Again you really want to see him going in middle relief then forcing management to give him a shot.

Rhea is a wild card. Seeing how he was not added to the 40 man I doubt that he is a Cub. He played in his home state and proved that he is healthy. He will catch on with a team like KC that has no aspersions in 2020 to compete.

If the Cubs go into 2020 to sell off and reload then yes Mills and Rhea are decent options as they sell Q/Bryant/Chatwood for the next wave.

But with the investment into Kimbrel that doesn't jive with pushing unproven starters out there.

I would expect for the Cubs to go after Wheeler.

 

[CSF77]

As is I really don't want to go into 2020 with Yu as the only guy that can brake 95MPH in the rotation.

 

[anotheridiot]

For 10.5M he put up decent production. He is getting shit because of his cost. And honestly this is a hard reason why Tom Ricketts should move on from Theo.

He is doing the same mistakes that he did with Boston. Came in and kicked ass then trades killed him.

Theo has a map, develop position players, buy pitching. It is what worked for him. When the title came in both towns and he starts buying position players and pitching, it goes to shit. Did it in Boston with Drew and Crawford, did it here with Heyward, stuck too hard with Russell when he proved he was a ******. He was given that title with Arizona selling off their team.

The problem is, though, that instead of retracing steps, they can blow this up too far.

Zobrist gone or really cheap, deal Heyward, two moves you are back to your developed core and back to buying pitching or a zobrist type 10-15 million guy for the outfield. How does that fix the offense? Dont know, other than you are back to your best players being the best paid players and eventually that scores points.

 

[CSF77]

Theo has a map, develop position players, buy pitching. It is what worked for him. When the title came in both towns and he starts buying position players and pitching, it goes to shit. Did it in Boston with Drew and Crawford, did it here with Heyward, stuck too hard with Russell when he proved he was a ******. He was given that title with Arizona selling off their team.

The problem is, though, that instead of retracing steps, they can blow this up too far.

Zobrist gone or really cheap, deal Heyward, two moves you are back to your developed core and back to buying pitching or a zobrist type 10-15 million guy for the outfield. How does that fix the offense? Dont know, other than you are back to your best players being the best paid players and eventually that scores points.

Well long story short.

Hope for a lose string. Get the 15th pick.

That is the season in a nutshell.

 

[CSF77]

Add to it going into the season.
No money sob sob.
No farm sob sob.
No closer sob sob
Payroll capped out sob sob

What did Theo do? Buy Descalso and pulled Hamels opt. Then spent on 'projects'. That never worked out.

They went into the season sitting on their hands. Joe made it interesting with the shit stack that he was dealt.

Blame it on Theo is you want to start pointing fingers. If he runs away to Boston I'm not going to cry. Give it to McLoyd. He is untapped potential.

 

[anotheridiot]

Theo wanted to see fire from the manager, not coddling players. Joe is just pissing Theo off these last few games putting Gimp Rizzo leadoff. Just keeps telling everyone it would have been different if he had a leadoff man. Petty shit. We had a leadoff man, Javy, hits .345 when he hits a fair ball, thats enough obp for me. Now there is Nico, does he get a shot, no. You think Theo is happy they tapped Nicos control early and he is batting 8th? Maybe Theo will fire him for the last cardinal series and go do it himself.

 

[Steve_A]

Add to it going into the season.
No money sob sob.
No farm sob sob.
No closer sob sob
Payroll capped out sob sob

What did Theo do? Buy Descalso and pulled Hamels opt. Then spent on 'projects'. That never worked out.

They went into the season sitting on their hands. Joe made it interesting with the shit stack that he was dealt.

Blame it on Theo is you want to start pointing fingers. If he runs away to Boston I'm not going to cry. Give it to McLoyd. He is untapped potential.

You can't really blame him for Hamels dude.
He was lights out for us last season with a 2.36 era and a 1.100 whip.
He looked like a slam dunk at the time especially when Corbin / Morton was the only true aces on the market.
Morton would have turned out better but how many teams fled from him due to injury concerns?

Descalso was puzzling since he'd only hit over .250 2 times with over 300 plate appearances.
Should have signed Flores / Cabrera / Walker for the kind of money he's making.

 

[Rixter]

They would be fucking idiots if they didn't try to sign Castellanos

I agree about Castellanos. But that doesn't mean Theo will. A lot of his moves make zero sense. He let Justin Wilson and Jesse Chavez (who signed with Texas for peanuts) walk last year, then Maddon had to bring young, untested arms into crucial situations late in the year. I've lost confidence in his judgement.

 

[Castor76]

You want a guy who over the past 4 seasons has a .308 OBP with no one on but has managed a .335 OBP with runners on? Picking out a stat that ignores Javy strikes out 30+% of time is the cherriest of cherry picking. Now, tell Javy to put the 1st or 2nd pitch into play and you'll have something. Surprisingly enough. on the 602 PA where he's put the 1st or 2nd pitch into play, his OBP is .405! His SLG in those PA is .714.

You can argue that I'm picking a stat where he can't strike out at all. That's correct. What it doesn't change is that the hyper aggressive approach works for most all hitters and hurt most pitchers. Garrett Cole has the lowest OPS against this season. His slash line against is .186/.234./.339. But when one of the first two pitches is put into play, his line against is .308/.316/.564. Even on the counts where he's up 0-1, his line against is .262/.281/.393.

 

[Steve_A]

I agree about Castellanos. But that doesn't mean Theo will. A lot of his moves make zero sense. He let Justin Wilson and Jesse Chavez (who signed with Texas for peanuts) walk last year, then Maddon had to bring young, untested arms into crucial situations late in the year. I've lost confidence in his judgement.

Wilson has been a bit better but he had control issues while he was here.
Can't blame him for having enough of him.
Chavez has an era near 5 this year.
Can't say he was wrong there as well.

 

[CSF77]

You can't really blame him for Hamels dude.
He was lights out for us last season with a 2.36 era and a 1.100 whip.
He looked like a slam dunk at the time especially when Corbin / Morton was the only true aces on the market.
Morton would have turned out better but how many teams fled from him due to injury concerns?

Descalso was puzzling since he'd only hit over .250 2 times with over 300 plate appearances.
Should have signed Flores / Cabrera / Walker for the kind of money he's making.

They had more pressing needs. Morrow had a injury history Strop was injured at the end of last year. They had Chatwood under contract already and Smyly returning. Descalso was pointless with Zo on the team.

I'm not saying that it was a bad idea to resign Hamels. But with payroll that strapped and the 8-9 was a trainwreck it was a more pressing need.

It feels like Theo didn't give much credence to a legit lead off or a Closer. And what happened during the year? He spent on a real closer and he just got don't saying the lead off was a real issue right now. No shit. I knew that a few years back.

Ok here is a 20/20 version.

2017 off-season. Resign Davis. Hard pass on Morrow and Chatwood. Pretty much a even deal. Strop still evolves into a decent set up.

Still sign Yu. He has proven his worth post injury.
Hamels as a signing was fine. The opt was questionable with Morrow assed out. With Davis under contract it would have made more sense.

 

[Omeletpants]

22 straight losses

 

[CSF77]

But looking at next year.

They should prioritize the team as
1. real lead off.
2. Set up that can close.
3. SP to replace Hamels.

Lead off has been a ongoing issue sense Fowler left. This team lost it's spark plug and Joe was not wrong when he said you go we go.

As far as a answer. Whit would be the top guy to trade for. Schwarber would look good on that team. Aft that they would want control and Happ also makes sense. 4 arb years for him. Toss in a 2nd tier pitching prospect the GTG.

After that I would want a LF. Whit could do it also but I would rather have more power out there.. Gardner IMO is ideal.

So the line up there.

Whit 2B
Gardner LF
Baez SS
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Contreras C
Heyward RF
Nico CF (Yes I would try this out)

Then sign Dellin Betances as the 8th inning arm. He has come off of injury and I could see a 1 year so he can build up value.
Baasically they have added 16-20 Mil at this point and gotten rid of 2 arb cases. They then off Almora Jr and Russell or use them as trade weight getting Whit. That point they could look into Wheeler.