Gotta say, I'm feeling pessimistic on what the Bears did with the #1 pick today. Looking at Panthers adding Chark... this is somewhat what we were begging Poles to do last year for Fields. Add some veteran receiver talent, not a Pringle or ESB. Get a good o-line in place. Panthers obviously can't replace DJ Moore but they've done pretty alright considering. It's a very good situation for a rookie QB to step into. Big hypothetical retrospective, but:
Poles is too nice I think, has a good relationship with the Panthers. He said he didn't know what Texans or Colts would do, while he knew the Panthers organization. Who cares! You're playing poker, there should be nerves involved dealing a 1st. DJ is sweet and I'm excited, but you could have landed not as ideal alternatives; Hopkins for 2nd and future 2nd, Chark/Thielen combo Panthers snatched for nothing, etc. Or JSN at whatever pick we eventually landed at of course.
I think a case can be made when trading from #1, you go the least amount back from #1, while receiving an additional 1st in return. I'm sure you could have gotten a swap, a 2nd rounder, and a '24 1st with the Colts. Which puts you at #4, with two 1sts next year. Now you sit in Will Anderson/Jalen territory worst case scenario.
Is it ideal for the Panthers, who wanted to give the big haul for the #1? No. But you're not trying to create ideals for your competitors, on or off the field. Not trying to put their mind at ease. Especially when the value of the Bears return depends on their future record. Now whoever is the Colts QB, be it Bryce (too small), Stroud (needs system in place), or Richardson/Levis (too raw), they're not going to do well with the Colts after looking at what Matt Ryan or Foles did last year. Colts are a structural mess. Rookie QB's traditionally have bad first years if they play, and the Colts are desperate. Desperate is GREAT. I think you want to play the odds of poor playing rookie QBs, by diversifying your '24 first rounders over multiple teams.
From #4, you trade back and get one more '24 1st. Arizona becomes your trade rival in this situation, and any trade partner will leverage Arizona with yourself. But its not such a threat, because then Will Anderson falls in your lap. Bottom line, Raiders/Panthers/Titans trade a '24 1st and a 2nd. I think the Panthers with Richardson/Levis are worse than with Young/Stroud. Titans are on a downward trajectory, Raiders same thing.
Basically, '23 draft we sit at #9 with two early 2nds (Kancey or Abewore?). And next year's draft you swoop in for the king's ransom: a Colts 1st, Panthers/Raiders/Titans 1st (with Richardson or Levis starting), and your own. I think that's two top 10 likely, maybe even top 3 (Marvin Harrison Jr territory). In poker you can't guarantee what's going to happen, but you play the odds. With three 1sts, you are announcing your arrival as a serious threat to the league. Maybe you improve in '23, now you're adding 3 blue chippers following that season. You open up possibility for Caleb if Fields doesn't work, you open up trading/working future 1sts.
I get a sense along with wanting to make fair deals for his trade partners, Poles also gets impatient when he can't see the next move waiting ahead. Claypool was that, and DJ less so but a little similar (him calling DJ a blue chip player). I think if you value the draft, the flexibility and top level players it opens up for you, you don't give away a future 1st for DJ, a #32 for Claypool. You trust the receiver will come, but in meantime max out the value of those 1sts by creating uphill battles for your opponents.
Can't help but feel we now risk Panther's '24 pick being middle of the road, and essentially we have DJ and some 2nd rounder in '25 as our bounty. Suddenly our huge opportunity turns out "fine" but we miss taking the league by the balls
