Official NFL Draft Thread - Bear Fans Only - and No Montucky!

bearsfan1977

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Enasic said:
I said I wouldn’t be opposed if they missed out on jeanty. Like if they went skattebo in round 3, I could see then drafting a speedy and more athletic RB in round 7 if they liked someone.
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I would not be happy if they used anything higher than a 5th round pick on Skattebo. It would be a wasted pick. I think he would be the 3rd best in that rb room, and it’s not that great of a room.
 
modo

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EDPeezy said:
I should have said in almost any scenario. I’m also more basing that opinion off your “You’d rather have less picks this draft“ statement. I get what you’re saying, but there are a lot variables and just on the surface seems like kind of a crazy thing to say. All drafts are different and the talent is spread differently so it just seems like a blanket statement when there’s more nuance to it.

Kind of going off on a tangent here, but people get too focused on rounds. Like there’s this magical drop that happens between 33 and 32. That’s the extreme example, but people do it to a lesser extent all the time. Rounds are meaningless. It’s the pick number that matters. People have this psychological thing with rounds.

There is not that big of a difference in how we look at pick 22 and pick 30. Of course there is some. It’s 8 spots. But now imagine there are only 22 teams. And know I can say one is a first round pick and one is a middle second round pick. That psychologically changes your expectation and projection for those players the way them both being late firsts doesn’t. People do that all the time.
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Its no secret the first round has a significantly much better chance of finding a probowler than other rounds.

Here is a study by the Times done in 2022

Tackle, QB and Edge had the highest disparity from round 1 to round 2 for Probowlers.

1745268232531.png
 
DefNextYear

DefNextYear

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modo said:
Its no secret the first round has a significantly much better chance of finding a probowler than other rounds.

Here is a study by the Times done in 2022

Tackle, QB and Edge had the highest disparity from round 1 to round 2 for Probowlers.

View attachment 45160
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Great graphic... the basis for why you don't trade up for anything but those premium positions.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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So was Tyler Warren considered a top prospect last year? Was just looking at his stats and he really didn’t do much at all his first 4 years and he’s older by a year or two than some of these guys.
 

Luke

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BaBaBlacksheep said:
There was an interview with the OL coach where he said his injury was a set back but that got pulled from YouTube
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thanks, I was just snooping around and saw that.
You've probably seen this or something like it, but the host is quoting Roushar about Braxton (2:30 mark) and Kiran (6:00 mark).

 

BaBaBlacksheep

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Luke said:
thanks, I was just snooping around and saw that.
You've probably seen this or something like it, but the host is quoting Roushar about Braxton (2:30 mark) and Kiran (6:00 mark).

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Yeah i have seen this quote several times and I think it’s wrong. I think he said something about competing for the starting job. But that interview got removed. So I am just going off memory
 
Les Grossman

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BaBaBlacksheep said:
So was Tyler Warren considered a top prospect last year? Was just looking at his stats and he really didn’t do much at all his first 4 years and he’s older by a year or two than some of these guys.
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He’s a 5th year senior who broke out is last year in college.

It’s not really talked about enough in his evals IMO
 

thenewguy

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Les Grossman said:
He’s a 5th year senior who broke out is last year in college.

It’s not really talked about enough in his evals IMO
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It's been talked about a lot. Friermuth, Brenton Strange, and Theo Johnson were all there before him and were drafted the last three years. They've had a ton of TE talent and bad passing offenses. He had 422 yards and 7tds the year before with another NFL TE on the roster and a team that passed for like 2500 yards
 
DefNextYear

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playthrough2001 said:
I’d take Conerly in this scenario, but there’s no way they’d pass on Jeanty at 10.
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I do expect Jeanty is a lock in the top 10, which is fine. I won't overthink adding a fun player even though I think the Bears are better just picking best RB available at 39 or 41 if they want one that badly. I think the wild cards are really picks 7-9... I don't think the Jets or Panthers would take him, but I think any of the 3 would be really interested in a trade. I think the only real threat is the Cowboys in that case... If Poles/Ben can't live without Jeanty. No one else should be thinking about a trade that high. Can't mortgage the future for a RB.
 
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