Official NFL Draft Thread - Bear Fans Only - and No Montucky!

bearsfan1977

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I said I wouldn’t be opposed if they missed out on jeanty. Like if they went skattebo in round 3, I could see then drafting a speedy and more athletic RB in round 7 if they liked someone.
I would not be happy if they used anything higher than a 5th round pick on Skattebo. It would be a wasted pick. I think he would be the 3rd best in that rb room, and it’s not that great of a room.
 

modo

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I should have said in almost any scenario. I’m also more basing that opinion off your “You’d rather have less picks this draft“ statement. I get what you’re saying, but there are a lot variables and just on the surface seems like kind of a crazy thing to say. All drafts are different and the talent is spread differently so it just seems like a blanket statement when there’s more nuance to it.

Kind of going off on a tangent here, but people get too focused on rounds. Like there’s this magical drop that happens between 33 and 32. That’s the extreme example, but people do it to a lesser extent all the time. Rounds are meaningless. It’s the pick number that matters. People have this psychological thing with rounds.

There is not that big of a difference in how we look at pick 22 and pick 30. Of course there is some. It’s 8 spots. But now imagine there are only 22 teams. And know I can say one is a first round pick and one is a middle second round pick. That psychologically changes your expectation and projection for those players the way them both being late firsts doesn’t. People do that all the time.
Its no secret the first round has a significantly much better chance of finding a probowler than other rounds.

Here is a study by the Times done in 2022

Tackle, QB and Edge had the highest disparity from round 1 to round 2 for Probowlers.

1745268232531.png
 

DefNextYear

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Its no secret the first round has a significantly much better chance of finding a probowler than other rounds.

Here is a study by the Times done in 2022

Tackle, QB and Edge had the highest disparity from round 1 to round 2 for Probowlers.

View attachment 45160
Great graphic... the basis for why you don't trade up for anything but those premium positions.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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So was Tyler Warren considered a top prospect last year? Was just looking at his stats and he really didn’t do much at all his first 4 years and he’s older by a year or two than some of these guys.
 

Luke

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There was an interview with the OL coach where he said his injury was a set back but that got pulled from YouTube

thanks, I was just snooping around and saw that.
You've probably seen this or something like it, but the host is quoting Roushar about Braxton (2:30 mark) and Kiran (6:00 mark).

 

BaBaBlacksheep

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thanks, I was just snooping around and saw that.
You've probably seen this or something like it, but the host is quoting Roushar about Braxton (2:30 mark) and Kiran (6:00 mark).


Yeah i have seen this quote several times and I think it’s wrong. I think he said something about competing for the starting job. But that interview got removed. So I am just going off memory
 

Les Grossman

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So was Tyler Warren considered a top prospect last year? Was just looking at his stats and he really didn’t do much at all his first 4 years and he’s older by a year or two than some of these guys.
He’s a 5th year senior who broke out is last year in college.

It’s not really talked about enough in his evals IMO
 

thenewguy

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He’s a 5th year senior who broke out is last year in college.

It’s not really talked about enough in his evals IMO
It's been talked about a lot. Friermuth, Brenton Strange, and Theo Johnson were all there before him and were drafted the last three years. They've had a ton of TE talent and bad passing offenses. He had 422 yards and 7tds the year before with another NFL TE on the roster and a team that passed for like 2500 yards
 

DefNextYear

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I’d take Conerly in this scenario, but there’s no way they’d pass on Jeanty at 10.
I do expect Jeanty is a lock in the top 10, which is fine. I won't overthink adding a fun player even though I think the Bears are better just picking best RB available at 39 or 41 if they want one that badly. I think the wild cards are really picks 7-9... I don't think the Jets or Panthers would take him, but I think any of the 3 would be really interested in a trade. I think the only real threat is the Cowboys in that case... If Poles/Ben can't live without Jeanty. No one else should be thinking about a trade that high. Can't mortgage the future for a RB.
 

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