***OFFICIAL*** SUPER WILDCARD WEEKEND IGT - Jan 9 & 10th

[KoreanBear]

Imagine if indy kicked a field goal on that 4th down, or if the kicker didn't miss..

 

[TL1961]

I’ll say it again, I was big time wrong on Rivers. I would have put money on his arm being done by week 5.

Me too.

And as fo rthis game, I would have put money on him fumbling or throwing an INT on one of the two most recent drives, and he didn't. Granted on one drive they ran every play, but he got the job done. I expected the opposite.

 

[BearsJR]

Me too.

And as fo rthis game, I would have put money on him fumbling or throwing an INT on one of the two most recent drives, and he didn't. Granted on one drive they ran every play, but he got the job done. I expected the opposite.

Wait, the pick is coming.

 

[TL1961]

LOL! No, it’s not greater than 50% its half! 25% chance of scoring twice a 2 point conversion, even if your 50% chance is correct. He had 75% chance of losing. Instead of 99% chance of tying.

Percentages divide between tries!

You don't understand at all what you are talking about.
I said EACH try is better than 50% chance of succeeding. Therefore if the FIRST is successful, you can avoid the second two point try and kick and get to 15. Fail on the first, and your chances of 14 total is STILL greater than 50%. They tried it twice, made it once, and were as well off as they would be if they kicked twice. And gave themselves a chance at 15 they would never have if they kicked twice.

Not only did you not understand it before it happened, you are still arguing against it after it resulted in the same number of points.

Do you run th erisk of failing twice? Of course. Nobody argues there is a guarantee. Simply that the odds are with you to at least get the 14.

 

[KoreanBear]

I think that's a fumble

 

[TL1961]

Final two minutes, but no review on the fumble?

 

[TL1961]

I think that's a fumble

I do too - and it should be an automatic review.

 

[KoreanBear]

Wait but can bills challenge if they don't have a time out?

 

[KoreanBear]

Final two minutes, but no review on the fumble?

I think they didn't review because it wasn't called a TO

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

Fumble . Wow lol good game

 

[10veitout]

That is a fumble.

 

[pablovi]

You don't understand at all what you are talking about.
I said EACH try is better than 50% chance of succeeding. Therefore if the FIRST is successful, you can avoid the second two point try and kick and get to 15. Fail on the first, and your chances of 14 total is STILL greater than 50%. They tried it twice, made it once, and were as well off as they would be if they kicked twice. And gave themselves a chance at 15 they would never have if they kicked twice.

Not only did you not understand it before it happened, you are still arguing against it after it resulted in the same number of points.

Do you run th erisk of failing twice? Of course. Nobody argues there is a guarantee. Simply that the odds are with you to at least get the 14.

That’s exactly what I’m arguing, the chance to make it two times is a lot less than 50%. It’s 25%. The odds of getting it once is 75%. If you fail the first try it goes down to 50%, both a lot less than 99% in kicking twice.

That’s the point! It’s a higher risk for the same reward.

 

[pablovi]

Fumble . Wow lol good game

Let’s hope they say it’s a fumble. But the ruling on the field is hard to overcome.

 

[KoreanBear]

That is a fumble.

STFU










Jk

 

[KoreanBear]

Lol thats bs

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

Nagy would have been looking at value meals on his Denny’s menu

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

Wow. Bills got screwed.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

That looked like a pretty clear fumble didn't it?

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

That looked like a pretty clear fumble didn't it?

Awful officiating. His knee was off the field, clearly

 

[TL1961]

That’s exactly what I’m arguing, the chance to make it two times is a lot less than 50%. It’s 25%. The odds of getting it once is 75%. If you fail the first try it goes down to 50%, both a lot less than 99% in kicking twice.

That’s the point! It’s a higher risk for the same reward.

OK. My final word. Your chances of 14 points - which means making it ONCE - are greater than 50%.
Your 15% applies to the chance of getting SIXTEEN. That entirely misses the point.

They have a >50% chance of the FIRST two point conversion, and then can kick.
Miss the first, and they then still have a >50% chance of the second conversion to get the same 14 they would get at best if kicking twice.

Done.