Offseason discussion/rumors

[anotheridiot]

I would dump Soler and his loafing, below average BA and defense and keep Almora who can play all OF positions

The first time Soler came to the states was the first time he did not play center field.

 

[anotheridiot]

I'm curious what the Rays would want for Drew Smyly. According to Marc Topkin...



Smyly strikes me as someone who could be a potential weapon out of the bullpen. His BB/K ratio was 27th best in the majors last season as a starter and that was down from the previous two years. With Wood a FA, Montgomery likely penciled in as the #5, and Chapman also a FA, the cubs are thin on LHP options. Rosscup will return from the DL. Conception and him seem like more AAA depth. Zastryzny is also around but not exactly proven.

$7 mil next year for Smyly is pretty pricey given his ERA/FIP was 4.88/4.49. So, I would struggle to see them getting a huge return. As for why the cubs would want him, his slider is filthy. People batted .212/.242/.411 with a 38.6% k rate. His 4 seam wasn't amazing but it was ok. Teams hit .252/.308/.413 vs that with a 21.1% K rate. That's pretty much MLB average. Teams killed his cutter though hitting .339/.375/.634. He also threw a change up that was hit for a little worse than average. In theory, putting him out in the pen would allow him to rely more on the 4 seam/slider combo. And of course there's similar upside to what Montgomery had when the cubs deal for him. If you get another 1 or 2 pitches going for Smyly, he's under contract until 2019 and has starter experience.

Among starters he was 27th in swinging strike rate just ahead of Arrieta and Lester. Clearly he has some things to work out but I'd love to see the cubs give him a chance to find himself in the bullpen with Bosio helping him similar to the way the Red Sox let Andrew Miller come into his own. I'd imagine his 91-92is 4 seam probably plays up to 94-95 in the bullpen and his slider would likely be even better when you only see it once or twice a game.

There are always intangibles, like how is this guy that wants to be a starter going to handle going to the pen. When you move someone to the pen, you are telling them you dont have good enough stuff to get the same hitters out three times. There is always going to be an adjustment. Hell, we have a Cy young candidate that is a starter that does not have that trust, even if he gave up 0 or 1 run unless he is throwing a no hitter.

 

[Omeletpants]

The first time Soler came to the states was the first time he did not play center field.

The notion of playing him in CF in any league is crazy. Did you see him loafing after balls and flopping around. Never mention Solr and CF in the same sentence again

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Yeah, I wouldn't put Soler in CF. Both Almora and Heyward are better defensive CF's. Too bad Soler didn't have a better year or we could have net a better controllable arm.

With his value relatively low, I'd probably keep Soler as a fourth OF until he increases his value.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The notion of playing him in CF in any league is crazy. Did you see him loafing after balls and flopping around. Never mention Solr and CF in the same sentence again

I thought the Cubs were the worst team in baseball and wouldn't win a playoff game?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Yeah, I wouldn't put Soler in CF. Both Almora and Heyward are better defensive CF's. Too bad Soler didn't have a better year or we could have net a better controllable arm.

With his value relatively low, I'd probably keep Soler as a fourth OF until he increases his value.

Soler is a perfect candidate for AL DH, IMHO. He can save his hamstrings and injuries by primarily being a hitter and yet can get out in the field and not be too much of a liability in IL play.

 

[CSF77]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/208456862/cubs-search-for-closer-after-aroldis-chapman/


Makes you think they may end up trading for Miller.

 

[fatbeard]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/208456862/cubs-search-for-closer-after-aroldis-chapman/


Makes you think they may end up trading for Miller.

I don't know...the asking price from the Yankees for Miller was Schwarber. The Cubs refused, wisely. Why would the Indians accept anything less, and why would the Cubs agree this time around?

 

[CSF77]

I don't know...the asking price from the Yankees for Miller was Schwarber. The Cubs refused, wisely. Why would the Indians accept anything less, and why would the Cubs agree this time around?

Less control.

Now this depends on if Fowler resigns. If he does it opens up Happ for a trade. He fits into a traditional lead off role that they desire. I would equate him to Torres in value. To that I would add Pierce Johnson and Underwood. Both really are long shots with Chicago but would add depth to Cleveland's. As we saw their lack of pitching depth most likely opened the door for the Cubs to pounce with their starters going on short rest. Having a starter quality arm to goto when injury happens. They lost their #2 late season. That affected them.

Now on figuring worth of Miller in prospects? Well a potential closer for a top 100 lead off prospect and 2 protectable arms is a pretty solid return. We are not talking a TOR starter with control.

 

[DanTown]

my assumption for the Cubs is they retain their bullpen but it ends up with CJ Edwards as the closer come 2018 and the Cubs let Rondon and Strop walk when he's a FA. Kenley Jensen sounds really good but the problem becomes a matter of cost and long term what you're trying to do.

 

[fatbeard]

my assumption for the Cubs is they retain their bullpen but it ends up with CJ Edwards as the closer come 2018 and the Cubs let Rondon and Strop walk when he's a FA. Kenley Jensen sounds really good but the problem becomes a matter of cost and long term what you're trying to do.

The Cubs sounded content to slot Montgomery into the rotation before the WS was even decided. They have also sounded content to let Edwards go into the season as slotted as the closer. Maybe that is the 2017 plan, and they move for a failed starter and try to develop their own Miller that way. Although now that I write that I am reminded that Edwards himself was a starter in the minors.

Anyway, Hoyer made some comments today that implied they were not going to go out and spend record money for Jansen or Chapman.

 

[CSF77]

my assumption for the Cubs is they retain their bullpen but it ends up with CJ Edwards as the closer come 2018 and the Cubs let Rondon and Strop walk when he's a FA. Kenley Jensen sounds really good but the problem becomes a matter of cost and long term what you're trying to do.

Jed pointed out it was the issue of October baseball that made them deal when they did. Rondon had a really good string but in terms of shut down stuff he really was not at that level of dominance. I would equate him to a blue collar worker doing his routeen job. But in Oct that job is not the same. So they went with Chapman and Edwards who were more dominate pitchers.

I believe that the price tag will be higher in trades closer to the dead line vs in the off season. Take Cleveland. They need to deal out due to pay roll concerns. So they are in need more so than the buying team right now. So the price lessens for the same player that got a bigger price when the need was reveresed with a play off pending.

It is all about timing more so than player set values.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

I think Edwards could became a dominant closer as early as 2017. He has nasty stuff. His fast ball and curve ball are filthy.

We'll need a lefty reliever in the pen to replace Montgomery and Chapman. Hopefully we can re-sign Wood.

Rondon and Strop will determine the fate of our pen next year. If one or both struggle, we'll be buyers again at the dead line.


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[Parade_Rain]

Less control.

Now this depends on if Fowler resigns. If he does it opens up Happ for a trade. He fits into a traditional lead off role that they desire. I would equate him to Torres in value. To that I would add Pierce Johnson and Underwood. Both really are long shots with Chicago but would add depth to Cleveland's. As we saw their lack of pitching depth most likely opened the door for the Cubs to pounce with their starters going on short rest. Having a starter quality arm to goto when injury happens. They lost their #2 late season. That affected them.

Now on figuring worth of Miller in prospects? Well a potential closer for a top 100 lead off prospect and 2 protectable arms is a pretty solid return. We are not talking a TOR starter with control.

Pierce Johnson and Duane Underwood are possibly in Wrigley in 2018 as Arrieta and Lackey replacements. I'm not sure why you would deliberately try to kill the pitching wave of talent unless I have the time line wrong.

 

[CSF77]

Pierce Johnson and Duane Underwood are possibly in Wrigley in 2018 as Arrieta and Lackey replacements. I'm not sure why you would deliberately try to kill the pitching wave of talent unless I have the time line wrong.

Both have major issues with their BB ratios. That issue needs to be controlled before they are concidered. Trevor Clifton I believe is the best pitching prospect in the system. Respectable walk ratio and strong strike out rates. He is almost a sure bet.

As a faster option I would look at Ryan Williams. Again it is more to do with his BB ratio. If a starter goes down I expect him called first.

Underwood has time. He has a good shot to fix his control issues. Johnson is more of a long shot. First he needs to stay healthy then prove that he can command the strike zone.

 

[CSF77]

I think Edwards could became a dominant closer as early as 2017. He has nasty stuff. His fast ball and curve ball are filthy.

We'll need a lefty reliever in the pen to replace Montgomery and Chapman. Hopefully we can re-sign Wood.

Rondon and Strop will determine the fate of our pen next year. If one or both struggle, we'll be buyers again at the dead line.


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Wood is doubtful. Some of the thoughts out there believe a team will try to get him to start again. He still is young and he has had previous success in that role.

Finding a replacement for a late inning lefty really is not a major concern. They need is a guy that can go a full inning if needed. Rob Z proved he was that guy. Then they need a left handed spec. If you look at Rosscup's splits he was crushed by righties but lefties struggled off of him. He is off the 60 now and they should look at him in that role.

 

[CSF77]

Center of attention: With Dexter Fowler likely leaving via free agency, the Cubs need to fill center field and find a new leadoff batter. Albert Almora Jr. is one in-house option, but Epstein said they may look elsewhere for an outfielder.

"I wouldn't rule out the job being his, but I think it would be more likely that we would acquire someone to complement him and allow him to grow into the job more gradually," Epstein said.

The Cubs do have some depth in the outfield with Jorge Soler, who was limited to 86 games because of injuries. Could the Cubs use Soler to acquire more pitching?

"We don't have any untouchables, but I still think there's a lot more in there offensively," Epstein said of Soler. "He hasn't had the season yet where he's put it all together and hit 30 home runs and been a force in the middle of the lineup. It's so obviously in there, we'd like to see him reach his full potential with us if possible."

 

[brett05]

Soler is a perfect candidate for AL DH, IMHO. He can save his hamstrings and injuries by primarily being a hitter and yet can get out in the field and not be too much of a liability in IL play.

Soler's biggest issue is his value is pretty darn low. And without regular playing time it's going to be near impossible for the value to be built back up. Realistically could Soler even net a top 100 spec?

 

[brett05]

Less control.

Now this depends on if Fowler resigns. If he does it opens up Happ for a trade. He fits into a traditional lead off role that they desire. I would equate him to Torres in value. To that I would add Pierce Johnson and Underwood. Both really are long shots with Chicago but would add depth to Cleveland's. As we saw their lack of pitching depth most likely opened the door for the Cubs to pounce with their starters going on short rest. Having a starter quality arm to goto when injury happens. They lost their #2 late season. That affected them.

Now on figuring worth of Miller in prospects? Well a potential closer for a top 100 lead off prospect and 2 protectable arms is a pretty solid return. We are not talking a TOR starter with control.

You take away any teams #2 starter and they have issues. I'm not sold that Cleveland has depth issues in the rotation.
I don't think the offer you have as Happ as the center piece gets the conversation even started.

 

[brett05]

Jed pointed out it was the issue of October baseball that made them deal when they did. Rondon had a really good string but in terms of shut down stuff he really was not at that level of dominance. I would equate him to a blue collar worker doing his routeen job. But in Oct that job is not the same. So they went with Chapman and Edwards who were more dominate pitchers.

I believe that the price tag will be higher in trades closer to the dead line vs in the off season. Take Cleveland. They need to deal out due to pay roll concerns. So they are in need more so than the buying team right now. So the price lessens for the same player that got a bigger price when the need was reveresed with a play off pending.

It is all about timing more so than player set values.

Given that it looks like good pitching is even more rare than it was, I think the opposite especially with such an awful FA class right now. Miller's value has gone up, not down, especially with his post season performance. There would be plenty of teams wanting to have him which increases the price more so.