Offseason discussion/rumors

[SilenceS]

Then pay him more.

I already covered the money in a previous post.

Thanks for not reading.

Great insight. Hope you conveyed with Rory before that rebuttal.

 

[SilenceS]

No. It's also right now.

No, its 2019 when they are going to get a top 3 TV contract. Dont try to compare TV money to whats going on now. That is completely stupid.

 

[FirstTimer]

Great insight. Hope you conveyed with Rory before that rebuttal.

What was there to rebut? The entire premise was Jansen vs Chapman. As I said if the money is essentially equal(base don the link that was posted) I'd rather have Chapman. It's not like there will be an elite arm on the market for what Chapman turned down. Again, you're not reading or understanding the premise.

 

[FirstTimer]

No, its 2019 when they are going to get a top 3 TV contract. Dont try to compare TV money to whats going on now. That is completely stupid.

Again, you're missing the point. The Cubs have more money than God to play with right now. They will have even more in 2019 yes, but it's not like their budget would be broken by giving Chapman the proposed contract if at the same time (AGAIN) the context is Jansen for basically the same amount of money.

I don't know whether you're intentionally being dense in terms of understanding the context or not. I'm using the mlbtraderumors predicted FA signings and amounts that put Jansen(5/85) within $5 million of the total Chapman(5/90) contract over the life of each..so like $1million a year.

 

[SilenceS]

Again, you're missing the point. The Cubs have more money than God to play with right now. They will have even more in 2019 yes, but it's not like their budget would be broken by giving Chapman the proposed contract if at the same time (AGAIN) the context is Jansen for basically the same amount of money.

I don't know whether you're intentionally being dense in terms of understanding the context or not. I'm using the mlbtraderumors predicted FA signings and amounts that put Jansen within $5 million of the total Chapman contract over the life of each..so like $1million a year.

You keep not reading that people think Jansen is the safer signing and he isnt going to get as much as Chapman. Your whole premise of retardism has been. "They have a lot of money. Take a risk, bro". Its dumb. The Cubs dont operate like that. Its not monopoly money.

 

[FirstTimer]

You keep not reading that people think Jansen is the safer signing

And I somewhat disagree. TC had a very good post that I can agree with and see his angle. That's fine.

My issue now is that some people are bringing up the money(in general) as a deterrent(Diehard). That's pretty stupid if at the same time he's fine with signing Jansen for basically the same amount.

Jansen's arm likely has less pitches on it for a career so there's that as well. If you can get Chapman under contract though who has been a more dominant pitcher for essentially the same price as Jansen, I would do it. Throw in a morality clause and keep a guy who seemed to really buy into the culture around.

Look, if Chapman walks and the Cubs get Jansen I won't throw a fit..shit happens..that's free agency but I'd rather roll with Chapman again given his performance and the inclination he's bought in and turned it around.

and he isnt going to get as much as Chapman..

Ok. Great prediction. Again, the premise was based around the link that was posted.

 

[SilenceS]

And I somewhat disagree. TC had a very good post that I can agree with and see his angle. That's fine.

My issue now is that some people are bringing up the money(in general) as a deterrent(Diehard). That's pretty stupid if at the same time he's fine with signing Jansen for basically the same amount.

Jansen's arm likely has less pitches on it for a career so there's that as well. If you can get Chapman under contract though who has been a more dominant pitcher for essentially the same price as Jansen, I would do it. Throw in a morality clause and keep a guy who seemed to really buy into the culture around.

Look, if Chapman walks and the Cubs get Jansen I won't throw a fit..shit happens..that's free agency but I'd rather roll with Chapman again given his performance and the inclination he's bought in and turned it around.

Ok. Great prediction. Again, the premise was based around the link that was posted.

Here is an article from Fangraphs. I agree with their premise. Im not gonna bust balls over it. Im just not a big believer in spending a ton on a closer and I just dont trust Chapman if he loses any velocity.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-sign-a-closer/

 

[FirstTimer]

Here is an article from Fangraphs. I agree with their premise. Im not gonna bust balls over it. Im just not a big believer in spending a ton on a closer and I just dont trust Chapman if he loses any velocity.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-sign-a-closer/

Fangraphs says Jansen will get more than Chapman....FWIW....and argues that he would be "worth it"

What do you want or expect the Cubs to do at closer this offseason?

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Here is an article from Fangraphs. I agree with their premise. Im not gonna bust balls over it. Im just not a big believer in spending a ton on a closer and I just dont trust Chapman if he loses any velocity.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-sign-a-closer/

You might not be a believer in spending a lot on a closer but if you look at the past few post seasons -- the teams in the end have had dynamic closers. LA had Jansen and made it to the NLCS. The Indians have Allen/Miller and won the pennant. We had Chapman and won the World Series. Last years Royals won the WS with the best bullpen in recent memory.

You can't always find those elite relievers with out paying up the ass for them. And yes, if Chapman signs a 4 year deal -- the last two he'll be an albatross (probably). Some times you have to pay now and suffer later.

Having said that, if Jansen is going to get $85M -- no way we sign him. 4-years/$60M? Maybe. Same thing with Chapman. If somebody pays him 4-years/$80M -- it won't be us.

 

[SilenceS]

You might not be a believer in spending a lot on a closer but if you look at the past few post seasons -- the teams in the end have had dynamic closers. LA had Jansen and made it to the NLCS. The Indians have Allen/Miller and won the pennant. We had Chapman and won the World Series. Last years Royals won the WS with the best bullpen in recent memory.

You can't always find those elite relievers with out paying up the ass for them. And yes, if Chapman signs a 4 year deal -- the last two he'll be an albatross (probably). Some times you have to pay now and suffer later.

Having said that, if Jansen is going to get $85M -- no way we sign him. 4-years/$60M? Maybe. Same thing with Chapman. If somebody pays him 4-years/$80M -- it won't be us.

So, you just proved reliever are up and down every year? Look at the Royals bulloen


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[SilenceS]

Fangraphs says Jansen will get more than Chapman....FWIW....and argues that he would be "worth it"

What do you want or expect the Cubs to do at closer this offseason?

I'm not mad if they stay in house. Remember when Marmol was a must sign closer?


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[FirstTimer]

You might not be a believer in spending a lot on a closer but if you look at the past few post seasons -- the teams in the end have had dynamic closers. LA had Jansen and made it to the NLCS. The Indians have Allen/Miller and won the pennant. We had Chapman and won the World Series. Last years Royals won the WS with the best bullpen in recent memory.

You can't always find those elite relievers with out paying up the ass for them. And yes, if Chapman signs a 4 year deal -- the last two he'll be an albatross (probably). Some times you have to pay now and suffer later.

Having said that, if Jansen is going to get $85M -- no way we sign him. 4-years/$60M? Maybe. Same thing with Chapman. If somebody pays him 4-years/$80M -- it won't be us.

Here's the issue though, combining the FG and MLBTR articles that were posted what if the market dictates those prices are what Chapman and Jansen get?

What do you do as the Cubs for closer? What would you expect them to spend or do? I get not wanting to "overpay" but define "overpay". If you are paying what the market is demanding then is it an overpay? On the flip side why sit on your hands out of stubbornness in some sense if you need or want an elite closer and the market is saying you pay this? What's the other option available to the Cubs?

 

[FirstTimer]

I'm not mad if they stay in house. Remember when Marmol was a must sign closer?


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Marmol was not Jansen or Chapman.

If the Cubs stay in house what do you want to see at the backend of the bullpen?

 

[SilenceS]

Marmol was not Jansen or Chapman.

If the Cubs stay in house what do you want to see at the backend of the bullpen?

I complete faith in Rondon, strop, and Edwards. I would expect the Cubs to look for another lefty and if their is a power arm they like out there. Rondon and strop injuries and timing derailed the end of their season. Rondon was absolutely lights out for a year and a half before Chapman and injury


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[FirstTimer]

I complete faith in Rondon, strop, and Edwards. I would expect the Cubs to look for another lefty and if their is a power arm they like out there. Rondon and strop injuries and timing derailed the end of their season. Rondon was absolutely lights out for a year and a half before Chapman and injury


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Fair enough.

 

[chibears55]

Chapman and Jansen are the same age. Their numbers are nearly identical. They are very likely to get the same money. Personally, because of his extreme reliance on velocity with very little movement I think Chapman is a bigger risk particularly 3 years down the road when the velo decreases. Jansen relies less on velocity and more on a nearly unhittable cutter. Same results but inevitable decline is less likely to affect performance. That all said if Theo and company feel that for whatever reason Chapman is the better target then I trust them.

Just asking if you know, haven't really looked into him
But
Why wouldn't the Dodgers be looking to retain Jansen
They got money to spend

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[fatbeard]

Links for it was Schwarber or bust?

It's been talked for more than three months by everyone with a link inside the FO. Buster Olney talked about it for weeks up to the deadline, and it's been confirmed after the fact by pretty much everyone in the Chicago media. Frankly, I'm surprised you've managed to insulate yourself from it.

 

[chibears55]

Yankees are reported to have contacted Chapman already...

They don't spend on Chapman or Jansen not sure I'm comfortable with going back to Rondon again..
Cubs will probably be looking to deal for the hot closer come July

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[RacerX]

Admittedly I don't know enough about pitching values and stats as other on this MB, so i am wondering why there isn't a huge push for Melancon?

I ask for 2 reasons: (a) i believe he will be more affordable then Chapman/Jansen, and (b) I consider the local team here (SF Giants) to be very savvy when it comes to pitchers (despite their horrid bullpen in 2016) and they seem to be 100% focused on Melancon - according to the local rags it is a foregone conclusion that they sign him.

 

[beckdawg]

Admittedly I don't know enough about pitching values and stats as other on this MB, so i am wondering why there isn't a huge push for Melancon?

I ask for 2 reasons: (a) i believe he will be more affordable then Chapman/Jansen, and (b) I consider the local team here (SF Giants) to be very savvy when it comes to pitchers (despite their horrid bullpen in 2016) and they seem to be 100% focused on Melancon - according to the local rags it is a foregone conclusion that they sign him.

He's more "good" than "great." I don't think you would really go wrong in getting him but people these days seem to want that one dominant guy like Miller was for Cleveland. Melancon is more of just a one inning guy.