Offseason discussion/rumors

[DanTown]

I'm not sure they didn't try. If you remember, Fowler came in at the start of ST right after the fouled up transaction in Baltimore. At that point he had zero leverage, I'm guessing the one year/option deal came from Fowler's people.

The Cubs at no point last year had serious discussions with Fowler about him being a long term option. I'm saying that the results of certain players (him, Heyward, Almora, Soler, Baez, Schwarber knee) have all combined to make them re-evaluate.

 

[fatbeard]

Keith Law puts Fowlers value at around 4/90. That's quite a jump from the numbers people around here are talking about and makes him very expensive for a team like the Cubs that likely has a 2-3 WAR CF at the minimum in Almora if they don't sign Fowler.

Some people have sugarplum dreams about what WAR actually costs on the FA market.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Some people have sugarplum dreams about what WAR actually costs on the FA market.

I have no illusions despite saying I thought 4/$60 was fair. WAR is about $8 mil per win right now but you have to look at length of contract. I don't think Dex will ever sniff 4.7 WAR again but I do think he'll be a very good player. So if you say 3.5 for each of the next two years and then 2.5 for the last two that would be a total of 12 WAR valued at $96 mil and jibe with Law's number. If I'm a FO though I'm not that optimistic as his great numbers the last 2 years could have something to do with the team he plays for.

 

[DanTown]

Some people have sugarplum dreams about what WAR actually costs on the FA market.

Dexter Fowler has a different price for all 30 teams based on oppirtunity cost and need being different for each team. There is a also a difference between what someone is worth and what someone would sign for.

 

[DanTown]

I have no illusions despite saying I thought 4/$60 was fair. WAR is about $8 mil per win right now but you have to look at length of contract. I don't think Dex will ever sniff 4.7 WAR again but I do think he'll be a very good player. So if you say 3.5 for each of the next two years and then 2.5 for the last two that would be a total of 12 WAR valued at $96 mil and jibe with Law's number. If I'm a FO though I'm not that optimistic as his great numbers the last 2 years could have something to do with the team he plays for.

To be clear, WAR in FA is eight million but WAR in terms of overall money spent is drastically less due to the incredibly high value of young players so while 5-90 is theoretically good FA value, I'm not sure it's good value in terms of baseball value.

If you spend eight million a win in FA, you'd run out of money well before you run out of potential wins.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

To be clear, WAR in FA is eight million but WAR in terms of overall money spent is drastically less due to the incredibly high value of young players so while 5-90 is theoretically good FA value, I'm not sure it's good value in terms of baseball value.

If you spend eight million a win in FA, you'd run out of money well before you run out of potential wins.

Agreed. You can't pay everyone a contract based on WAR but you can pay some of them that way. Totally depends on circumstance of the individual team. So while I did the math and Law's salary projection made sense, I'm also not sure there's a team that will pay that although there certainly could be.

 

[brett05]

Keith Law puts Fowlers value at around 4/90. That's quite a jump from the numbers people around here are talking about and makes him very expensive for a team like the Cubs that likely has a 2-3 WAR CF at the minimum in Almora if they don't sign Fowler.

Keith Law is putting a fairly large premium on a down class bump

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Keith Law is putting a fairly large premium on a down class bump

He's looking at premium WAR value assuming WAR at $8 mil per. I get it but how many clubs can afford to do something like that for an aging player that will likely be in LF by 2019 if not sooner? There might be a team like that out there but I still say 4/$60 is a lot closer.

 

[fatbeard]

Keith Law is putting a fairly large premium on a down class bump

Somebody will pay, although not as much as Law thinks. Winning the WS is a nice feather in your cap heading into FA, just ask Pablo Sandoval.

 

[SilenceS]

Besides the usual suspects, seems the Braves are looking to make a splash. New ball park and dont want to waste Freddie Freeman and Terehan clock anymore. There talent is starting to bubble up to the majors.

Chris Archer is on the block. It would cost a ton though. He is basically signed through his prime years for around 40 million. It seems every media person thinks the Cubs are going to trade Schwarber except the actual Cubs. They say if he does get traded, its going to be for an impact big league player.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

5. Kenley Jansen – Cubs. Five years, $85MM. In 2009, Dodgers executive De Jon Watson convinced a 6’5″ light-hitting, strong-armed A ball catcher to convert to the pitcher’s mound. Now, armed with a cutter reminiscent of Mariano Rivera, Kenley Jansen is one of the best relievers in baseball. Though he’s not quite as flashy as Chapman, Jansen sports better control and his own dominant strikeout rate. He battled an irregular heartbeat in 2011-12, but was fortunately able to beat that issue with surgery four years ago. Should the Dodgers balk at a historic contract for Jansen, the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers could serve as alternative

 

[Mr. Cub]

As for awards....

We have 2/3 finalists for the Cy with Lester and Hendricks along with Scherzer

Maddon a finalist for MOY with Roberts and Baker.

Bryant for MVP with Seager and Murphy.

 

[beckdawg]

Think the cubs will be very active in trade talks this offseason but I'm not so sure it's going to be the top tier guys people drool over. I'd honestly like to see some more trades like the Montgomery for Vogelbach deal. In that vein, Candelario seems like the perfect candidate. He just inched into mlb.com's top 100 after hitting .333/.417/.542 in AAA. Dude can rake but he's really not going to be a franchise changing player and obviously he probably doesn't make the cubs opening day roster. But like Vogelbach that makes him a very intriguing guy because it's rare for teams to have top 100 type players who are MLB ready but can't make it with the team they are on.

I've mentioned this before but I think something like Candelario for Max Fried from the braves makes a ton of sense. They need someone to hold down 3B until the 16 year old Kevin Maitan is ready and I don't see the 31 year old Adonis Garcia as that guy. They have 3 LHP in that are rated higher than Fried(Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard, Joey Wentz) as well as Kyle Muller who's one spot behind Fried. Cubs need LHP bad as almost all their talent is RHP. Fried was set back by TJS but at 22 could move quickly through AA/AAA. It'd sort of be like drafting a college pitcher in that regard.

Whether or not the braves do that deal who knows but I think something such as this move could be very interesting for the cubs.

 

[FirstTimer]

If I'm the Cubs and I have the resources, I re-sign Chapman. I think going for Jansen is "over thinking" the issue a bit. Chapman was a stud for us. He's a physical specimen. Something about Jansen comes off as "over weight reliever that eventually breaks down."

In either case. Chapman was extraordinary for us and really bought into Maddon and the clubhouse.

Re-sign him and move forward. Unless I'm missing where Chapman doesn't want to re-sign with the Cubs I don't quite understand the need or want to move on from him.

 

[anotheridiot]

I dont think Chapman is a good fit. Three in a row and he was only hitting 98 or 99. You seriously need to consider what this fastball is going to be in the third year of a deal, let alone fourth or fifth when its topping out at 98. Honestly, I think Carl Edwards Jr gets a better shot at closer than Rondon. They might have ruined him. Kind of off the radar with the big two closer prizes is Melancin. I could see the cubs going his route or possibly trading across town.

As far as moving players, Villanueva was in the Szczur category this year, he broke his leg and never came back. He should be in the mix but I really do not know if teams are going to help the cubs out much with their system guys because not trading for them is helping the league by picking them clean when there is no room on the 40 man and more are left unprotected.

 

[fatbeard]

If I'm the Cubs and I have the resources, I re-sign Chapman. I think going for Jansen is "over thinking" the issue a bit. Chapman was a stud for us. He's a physical specimen. Something about Jansen comes off as "over weight reliever that eventually breaks down."

In either case. Chapman was extraordinary for us and really bought into Maddon and the clubhouse.

Re-sign him and move forward. Unless I'm missing where Chapman doesn't want to re-sign with the Cubs I don't quite understand the need or want to move on from him.

I think it's one thing to rent an alleged domestic abuser for a half-season WS run, and another thing entirely to marry him yourself and pay 5/85 for the pleasure.

 

[FirstTimer]

I think it's one thing to rent an alleged domestic abuser for a half-season WS run, and another thing entirely to marry him yourself and pay 5/85 for the pleasure.

Eh, whatever. I think it's a little late for the Cubs to play the morality card. Pay the dude, keep him in line. Keep winning.

 

[fatbeard]

Eh, whatever. I think it's a little late for the Cubs to play the morality card. Pay the dude, keep him in line. Keep winning.

I wasn't looking at it in terms of morality, but risk. The risk that Chapman has another domestic incident between August-November is pretty small, and if he does he's gone as a FA at the end of the year anyways. The risk that Chapman has another domestic incident through 2021 is substantially higher, and if that happens the FO has a toxic, untradeable, and expensive asset on its hands. It seems to me that the risk of Jansen eating his way to mediocrity is a much smarter one to take.

 

[FirstTimer]

I wasn't looking at it in terms of morality, but risk. The risk that Chapman has another domestic incident between August-November is pretty small, and if he does he's gone as a FA at the end of the year anyways. The risk that Chapman has another domestic incident through 2021 is substantially higher, and if that happens the FO has a toxic, untradeable, and expensive asset on its hands. It seems to me that the risk of Jansen eating his way to mediocrity is a much smarter one to take.

The Cubs traded for him right?

I'm re-signing Chapman and taking my chances. Chapman is talented enough some team will take the risk on if it goes south. The Cubs have more money than God to play with right now. They can afford a risk.

If the link is true you're paying essentially the same money for Jansen or Chapman.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I wasn't looking at it in terms of morality, but risk. The risk that Chapman has another domestic incident between August-November is pretty small, and if he does he's gone as a FA at the end of the year anyways. The risk that Chapman has another domestic incident through 2021 is substantially higher, and if that happens the FO has a toxic, untradeable, and expensive asset on its hands. It seems to me that the risk of Jansen eating his way to mediocrity is a much smarter one to take.

I don't think they will re-sign Chapman, but if they were to do so per FirstTimer's wishes, they could agree to a morals clause in his contract.