brett05
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I think KJ gets at least $15 million per for at least 4 years
I think KJ gets at least $15 million per for at least 4 years
DJMoore_is_fat
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This is true. Without Fowler we collapsed before the All-Star break. But Fowler will probably get a huge deal and I'm not sure going forward that would be smart money. Eventually we'll have some of these big deals catch up with us. Zobrist and Lester were huge for us in winning a title - no way we win with out those guys. But what will their production look like three years from now when we are still paying them a ton? You can only have so many of those guys before you turn into the Yankee's.
TC in Mississippi
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I agree. Best guess is Jansen get 4/$60 mil and Chapman get 5/$85 mil. Melancon being older than either and not quite as accomplished will get somewhere in the 3/$42 mil range.
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Zobrist can be traded in the 4th year. The new TV deal will be accomplished by the time Lester is done. The team is winning. They will be very profitable, even with these bigger contracts. And yes, some guys do have to be traded at some point while draft picks move up. C'est la vie.
TC in Mississippi
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Agreed on the contracts but in the cases of Lester and Zobrist both appear appear poised to outperform their deals easily in terms of WAR and even in a practical sense. Zobrist is still likely to be at least somewhat valuable in his final year and I'd be surprised if Lester was much worse than a solid MOR starter in 2020 and you could pay him to go away in 2021 if he isn't. I think Fowler could outperform a deal but with the glut of OF both on the MLB roster and coming within the next 2-3 years he does pose something of a logjam problem. It's not an easy decision and I'll understand it either way.
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How many years is the expectation for Fowler's contract?
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Trade bait for pitching?
I really hope he's back. But am sure the right decision will be made regardless.
TC in Mississippi
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Everything I'm hearing is 4
fatbeard
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Diehardfan
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Ok..four years. Fowler's what, 30? Let's see...he'll be 34 when it runs out. Didn't they sign some guy named Zobrist to a big deal? Wasn't he 34 at the time of signing? Age should not even be a factor. I mean you got a guy who fills multiple holes in the lineup, on defense and with the bat plus he's very good on the bases....I see no reason not to go after him.
beckdawg
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Not sure you can be so firm as this. It all depends on price. If he's at a reasonable price you can then always move on from cost controlled young players.
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If that's the case, the Cubs won't sign him. If they could get 4 with a trade clause after 3, I could see it.
TC in Mississippi
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No, I get it and something like that could certainly happen. From Fowler's point of view though he has a ring and now it's time to get paid and provide for his family. I'm not going to get into the argument of how much money you need for your family as that's a personal one for the player. If the Cubs offered 4/$60 mil Fowler might consider it but I'm not sure they would offer that and I'm not sure someone, in a very weak FA OF market, might not offer more. It's going to have to play out and my gut is he isn't back. I would love to be wrong.
DanTown
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The combination of both a QO offer and Hammel being declined for essentially eight million tells me the Cubs don't want to just let Dex walk for nothing. I assume if the price gets too high that he's gone but I can see a world where they move Soler for a back of the rotation or good bullpen arm and then keep Fowler and essentially platoon Almora with the three OF (plus Bryant, Zobrist). Also keeps your really dynamic lineup (Dex/Kyle/KB/Rizzo/Zobrist/Russell) mostly intact and now you also lessen the pressure on Heyward and Contreras if they're batting 7 and 8 a lot.
And I do think that they were all set to move on from Dex but the Cubs value chemistry more than a lot of analytic teams and if you front load Fowlers deal, you can definitely afford it. I mean without Dex, you're one injury to a 36 y/o Zobrist away from having no qualified lead off hitters unless you move one of your big bats down.
And I do think that they were all set to move on from Dex but the Cubs value chemistry more than a lot of analytic teams and if you front load Fowlers deal, you can definitely afford it. I mean without Dex, you're one injury to a 36 y/o Zobrist away from having no qualified lead off hitters unless you move one of your big bats down.
DanTown
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He qualifies for a No trade after 3 as a 10-5 guy anyway.
DanTown
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You have to project his years in CF at age 31-35. I can see why the Cubs would be hesitant to rely on him but they also saw Heyward fall off completely and Almora hasn't taken that next step offensively for the Cubs liking. I think the Fowler thing really surprised them because if they wanted Dex long term on a four year deal, why no give one to him last off-season?
DanTown
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Declining Hammels option and not trying to keep Dex makes little to no sense because there simply isn't a player outside of Fowler and the two closers this offseason that makes sense to spend that money on. The only other move this could be related to is Otani being posted; then I could see the Cubs spending a ton on him. Theo historically has been aggressive with Japanese pitchers (Dice, Tanaka) and Otani is the youngest and best of them all.
Diehardfan
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I'm not sure they didn't try. If you remember, Fowler came in at the start of ST right after the fouled up transaction in Baltimore. At that point he had zero leverage, I'm guessing the one year/option deal came from Fowler's people.
anotheridiot
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He did not get a long term deal since it was going to cost a draft pick after the cubs gave him the 15.6 Qualifying offer. I thought the cubs were not going to do that to him again, but they did. He has 5 days to get a long term deal or actually take the QO this time, instead of losing three million again.
DanTown
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Keith Law puts Fowlers value at around 4/90. That's quite a jump from the numbers people around here are talking about and makes him very expensive for a team like the Cubs that likely has a 2-3 WAR CF at the minimum in Almora if they don't sign Fowler.