Offseason discussion/rumors

[fatbeard]

I agree with that for the most part. If they put Baez on the table teams would come calling after what he did last play offs. Just the gush fest Smoltz was giving him upped his value.

MLB GMs do not make decisions based on the hype generated by TV announcers.

 

[DanTown]

Two teams did this for Price with Drew Smyly and Norris.

Both of those pitchers are significantly worse than Price. Both teams got worse pitchers for more years of control. If you want to trade Jake for some future MOR, sub 2 WAR pitcher, I don't really see how that trade helps you either win in 2017 nor do I see how that trade helps you in the future.

And Detroit trade Smyly knowing they could "flip" Price if they weren't real contenders. And look at Smyly now: he's not even a full-time starter.

The Cubs can't trade Arrieta, a guy who has even less of a track record than Price, and expect to get back either a pitcher who is as good as him now nor can they expect to get back a guy who projects to be a 3-4 WAR pitcher in the near future. They can probably get back a Smyly or Norris but both of those guys are not TOR arms so I fail to see the value in that for the Cubs. The Cubs don't have a lack of quantity in terms of pitching prospects. At the very least, they can probably roll out three guys who get you at least 2 fWAR in 2018 and beyond in Hendricks, Lester, and Montgomery. What they lack is a guy who can replace Arrieta as a potential power arm who can win close to 20 games and be a 4+ WAR pitcher.

If the Cubs did something like Arrieta + Soler + Underwood for Paulino in Houston, that's something that intrigues me. But I'm not sure even that's enough to get one arm in Paulino. But that's the kind of deal you have to do with Jake: you have to attach younger guys to the deal and give the other team some sort of future value to the deal. Because Arrieta at this point isn't a strong enough pitcher/asset by himself to get teams to give you the quality arm that you want.

But I don't see this "the Cubs can't give Arrieta a long term deal" that everyone says. The Cubs gave Lester a six year deal through his age 36 season but while Jake is older, he has significantly less professional innings. Jake is at 1500 career innings while Lester was essentially 1800 professional innings between minors/pros/playoffs.

 

[JaySix]

I think some of you are nuts.

Replacing 40% of the rotation from a 103 win ws winner who will be the prohibitive favorites next season?

No chance.

I could see Montgomery in the rotation but he's best served next year as a 6th starter/swing man out of the pen.

The two areas of work will be:

figuring out cf.....internally with almora/heyward platoon (and hap in the wings) or go outside and try bringing back Fowler or another defensive minded leadoff Hitter type (span)

Bullpen....closer is up in air as rondon looked awful last 2 months and is Edwards really closer material?
Beyond that they need to figure out who fits where because maddon had no confidence in any of them come october.

Personally....my thoughts:

A pen with chapman/jansen at end really helps esp if we can have edwards/strop/montgomery/rondon in front of them with 1 lefty and 1 righty added

First you call people out for being nuts then you bring forward a scenario where we sign Chapman AND Jansen!?

Now I agree about not changing 40% of the rotation if it involves Arrieta but signing both Chapman and Jansen to FA sized contracts is just mad


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[Spunky Porkstacker]

First you call people out for being nuts then you bring forward a scenario where we sign Chapman AND Jansen!?

Now I agree about not changing 40% of the rotation if it involves Arrieta but signing both Chapman and Jansen to FA sized contracts is just mad


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I think he said previously either Chap or Jansen not both.

 

[JaySix]

I think he said previously either Chap or Jansen not both.

That makes sense, my bad


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[CSF77]

MLB GMs do not make decisions based on the hype generated by TV announcers.

How was Baez's D hype. It was pretty gold glove level and not many players could pull off his quick tags.

It did hurt that Smoltz was having a man crush on air for sure.

 

[ijustposthere]

Rumor has it that Montero was very nearly DFA'd and released this year. He rebounded some in the second half, but his availability combined with his inability to control the running game makes me think the FO might prefer to move on. They might have to eat a portion of his salary next year to make it happen, but that would allow them to bring in a more defensively-capable and healthy veteran.

I thought Montero was going to be gone before his comments. I have no doubt now. Will always love him though. He had two of the biggest hits in Cubs history.

 

[CSF77]

2017-18 list:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html


2019 F/A list:

Starting pitchers
Price *
Clayton Kershaw *
Matt Harvey
Dallas Keuchel
Shelby Miller
Garrett Richards
Jose Quintana

* Can opt out of current contract after 2018 season

It makes sense to make a splash then. Some really solid names up there. Darvish is the best name if he rebounds next year.

 

[CSF77]

I thought Montero was going to be gone before his comments. I have no doubt now. Will always love him though. He had two of the biggest hits in Cubs history.

If he leaves it is a minor issue. Contreras was even catching Jake. Lester was the only one that was paired up at the end.

All they need is a D first back up.

 

[ijustposthere]

If he leaves it is a minor issue. Contreras was even catching Jake. Lester was the only one that was paired up at the end.

All they need is a D first back up.

I know, that's why I felt he was gone anyway. His injuries limited him, and there's no way Contreras shouldn't be the everyday starter. If they keep him as the vet backup, cool, but there's cheaper options for that. Not to mention he'd probably become Lester's personal catcher and teams would run wild on them. Even more so than now.

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[CSF77]

I know, that's why I felt he was gone anyway. His injuries limited him, and there's no way Contreras shouldn't be the everyday starter. If they keep him as the vet backup, cool, but there's cheaper options for that. Not to mention he'd probably become Lester's personal catcher and teams would run wild on them. Even more so than now.

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Contreras is a equalizer. His snap to first is as deadly as he is to 2nd. Jon is fast to the plate but guys get long leads against him.

I would work on his timing to the plate more than anything. Holding the ball for a extra sec throws of a runners timming.

 

[WindyCity]

Personally, I take another run at the World Series with Jake in 2017, and if he walks after that and the Cubs get nothing so be it.

That is what happens on good teams.

 

[WindyCity]

If he leaves it is a minor issue. Contreras was even catching Jake. Lester was the only one that was paired up at the end.

All they need is a D first back up.

I would get Contreras to move in with Lester for the entire offseason. He has to be his catcher with how badly people want to run on Lester.

 

[CSF77]

Lester has said he was willing to work with him but Joe didn't let it happen when Ross was on the DL. Something to do with he is the future. Joe had Montero catch him instead. That was when Contreras was rough. Not the same guy he became. Add to it they had to give Ross something to do vs being a bench coach.

I believe they will be fine together.

 

[beckdawg]

Following up on the Fowler/QO thing...

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/...ine-mutual-option-for-2017-enter-free-agency/

Whether they pursue him or not, the Cubs will make him a qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline to do so. The one-year offer is for $17.2 million, and will presumably be declined by Fowler. If he declines and signs with another team, and if the free agent compensation rules remain in place this offseason, the Cubs will get a compensatory draft pick next year.

 

[Diehardfan]

Lester has said he was willing to work with him but Joe didn't let it happen when Ross was on the DL. Something to do with he is the future. Joe had Montero catch him instead. That was when Contreras was rough. Not the same guy he became. Add to it they had to give Ross something to do vs being a bench coach.

I believe they will be fine together.

He's still rough. Lester throws a lot of stuff down low, a few of them 58 footers....I like the kid, but he needs a lot of work in keeping pitches in front of him.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

I thought Montero was going to be gone before his comments. I have no doubt now. Will always love him though. He had two of the biggest hits in Cubs history.

Thats why I was a little surprised to hear his comments. Yeah the dude didn't play much, but he sure as hell contributed.

 

[CSF77]

He's still rough. Lester throws a lot of stuff down low, a few of them 58 footers....I like the kid, but he needs a lot of work in keeping pitches in front of him.

He has made some outstanding grabs. I believe his pass ball was on a signal mix up. But his blocking skills are excellent when he knows it is comming.

I believe you should call for a slider in the dirt when it is no or low risk for a big inning if it goes through. Asking for a dirt ball with a guy on 3rd you are asking for problems.

 

[WindyCity]

He has made some outstanding grabs. I believe his pass ball was on a signal mix up. But his blocking skills are excellent when he knows it is comming.

I believe you should call for a slider in the dirt when it is no or low risk for a big inning if it goes through. Asking for a dirt ball with a guy on 3rd you are asking for problems.

I just think they have to have Contreras catch him.

Unless they want to sign a veteran catcher, but then they are eating a ton of Montero money.

 

[fatbeard]

I know, that's why I felt he was gone anyway. His injuries limited him, and there's no way Contreras shouldn't be the everyday starter. If they keep him as the vet backup, cool, but there's cheaper options for that. Not to mention he'd probably become Lester's personal catcher and teams would run wild on them. Even more so than now.

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Montero as a backup is fine during the regular season, but the problem is that if the Cubs run into the wrong type of team (like the Indians) in the playoffs they simply can't afford to play him. They need a viable veteran backup who can call a game, play solid defense, and still control a running game. A.J. Ellis comes to mind as a potential option.