Offseason discussion/rumors

[The-0]

Wade Davis is the perfect kind of guy to mentor CJ Edwards on how to use his starter stuff (which is good) and turn that in to an elite reliever. While the cost is high, Soler simply never lived up to the type of status that he had as a minor leaguer. And considering a full year of Schwarber (which means less opportunity to play LF) and a hopefully rebounding Heyward, there simply wasn't much room to get Soler AB. If he does end up in Kansas City, I expect him to use the regular playing time he's likely to receive and become a solid regular OF.

I mean maybe the Cubs make a minor move (probably LaStella for a 3rd C type) in terms of adding a better LOOGY but I feel the lineup is mostly set

C Contreras, Montero
IF Rizzo, Zobrist, Bryant, Baez, Russell
OF Schwarber, Jay, Almora, Heyward, Szczur
SP Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Lackey, Montgomery
RP Davis, Edwards, Rondon, Grimm, Strop, Duesening (LH), Battle for spot (Rob Z, Pierce Johnson, etc)

Best guesses on top/notable minor leaguers
AAA - Chesney Young, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Caratini, Mark Zagunis
AA - Ian Happ, Duane Underwood, Trevor Clifton, Preston Morrison
A+ - Eloy Jimenez, Donnie Dewes, Thomas Hatch
A - EJ Martinez, Dylan Cease, Oscar de la Cruz

I still think we go after another starter. Save Montgomery for long relief and sixth starter before the all star break and at the end of the year.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Soler will probably get injured twice next year and play 100-125 games. Davis will probably be dominate in the NL in 2017. He's given up 3 HR's total in 2014, 2015 and 2016 combined.

We're going to be awfully tough again.


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[DJMoore_is_fat]

Newsflash: Theo wants to repeat. LOLOLOLOLO.

Time to tear this bad boy down. Too many old geezers like Javy, Addy, Bryant and Willie Contreras. Better get what we can get for them now.


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[Hammer]

Time to tear this bad boy down. Too many old geezers like Javy, Addy, Bryant and Willie Contreras. Better get what we can get for them now.

LOL, this seems like a post from 2025 or something.



Btw. noone should be mad about trading oft injured OF like Soler, even if the return is "just" a RP (a great one), especially since Cubs have even better OF prospect, Eloy Jimenez, in minors (he'll probably be majors ready in 2 years or so).

And considering Jimenez, is he more of a LF or RF prospect, I mean how good/bad is his defense.

 

[DanTown]

LOL, this seems like a post from 2025 or something.



Btw. noone should be mad about trading oft injured OF like Soler, even if the return is "just" a RP (a great one), especially since Cubs have even better OF prospect, Eloy Jimenez, in minors (he'll probably be majors ready in 2 years or so).

And considering Jimenez, is he more of a LF or RF prospect, I mean how good/bad is his defense.

Eloy as a prospect compares quite similarly to...Jorge Soler at that age. Strong arm, not great at routes or super quick, great potential power bat, physically imposing.

It's almost as if this year, with Eloy breaking out, they put Jorge in a time-machine.

 

[DanTown]

I agree, but Otani might not be available. This is a guy who should be in MLB baseball but the powers that be might be too obtuse to see that. All I'm saying is that Theo always has backup plans.

Wouldn't be shocked at all if Otani comes over and signs a one year deal. While there is some risk, there is almost MORE upside if he comes over and pitches extremely well.

 

[DanTown]

My hope is the Rockies, who's GM must feel some sort of pressure enough to give 5 years to a 31 y/o Ian Desmond to play 1B, lose early a little bit with a struggling Jon Gray and the Cubs do Arrieta for Gray in like late April.

 

[chibears55]

Its official
Soler for Davis



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[brett05]

My hope is the Rockies, who's GM must feel some sort of pressure enough to give 5 years to a 31 y/o Ian Desmond to play 1B, lose early a little bit with a struggling Jon Gray and the Cubs do Arrieta for Gray in like late April.

Why would Colorado ever do that? Better chance of the Cubs going 0-162 next year than that trade.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why would Colorado ever do that? Better chance of the Cubs going 0-162 next year than that trade.

I'm in total agreement with you here. The Rockies are going all in or they wouldn't be signing a guy with draft pick compensation attached like Desmond. Also they can't sign pitching due to where they play so they have to develop it and Gray looks to be the best guy to fall in their laps in a long while.

 

[beckdawg]

Now that it's official... I still don't know how I feel about it. If Davis hadn't been injured with elbow problems last year I'd get it and be happier about it. Presumably the cubs have run over the medicals and feel comfortable so I suppose there is that. If we want to look at upside here, the cubs didn't wait til midseason and get gouged again for bullpen help. If Davis is healthy him for Soler is probably fair and a lot less painful than the Chapman deal. And if Davis bolts after the season the cubs do recoup probably a 3rd round pick.

I guess my biggest annoyance with the issue is they have talked for 5 years now about young pitching. And then when push comes to shove they've continually dealt pieces away for other things. At this point, I honestly feel like we're just in for the long haul of waiting on Clifton and Cease and the rest of the young guys to develop. I could see them maybe gambling on an unproven young guy if the price is cheap(Henry Owens and Archie Bradley come to mind) but I see no realistic way they land a proven young guy right now without something drastic like deal Baez.

 

[Omeletpants]

Its official
Soler for Davis

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now I can stop talking about this slug. Hope he makes the 4pm flight to KC

 

[beckdawg]

Also of note, the cubs bullpen situation after 2017 is becoming messy. This is the final year on Strop and Davis(barring extension). 2018 is the final year on Rondon. 2019 is Grimm's final year. Edwards is around til after 2022 so least there is that.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Well sure but some people here seem to want to trade Jake for a bag of balls which would essentially eliminate any chance of winning the 2017 WS.

Ok, that's asinine. I suggested trading Arrieta IF they pulled off a deal for Archer neither of which is going to happen. I also suggested moving him for a near ready starting pitcher who could contribute in 2018 and beyond. I'm not sure anyone suggested trading Arrieta for less than market value.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now I can stop talking about this slug. Hope he makes the 4pm flight to KC

Fangraphs had a piece on this trade earlier today http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-win-win-trade-of-jorge-soler-and-wade-davis/

You hated him so much that it made me seem like a fanboy of Soler's which I have never been. I wrote this on another site in response to the Fangraphs comparison of Soler to Trumbo. I might as well just post it here verbatim:

Wow. Mark Trumbo, and an upside if he turns into Justin Upton? Obviously those comps are a far cry from the guy people thought Soler would become. As recently as a year ago I heard people projecting him to 30-35 HR/year with a slash of .290/.350/.600 and a .360-.375 wOBA similar to his small sample size rookie debut and now the comp is Trumbo with the upside being Upton? That's a precipitous fall from grace right there. Clearly if that's the thinking in scouting circles right now, and Davis is healthy right now, this is a very fair trade. I was already thinking it was but those are sobering comps.

To be fair, I've never been a guy that thought Soler would be anything more than a slightly above average player, maybe making an All Star game or two in a ten year career, but I did think he would be what we called when I was a kid a "lunch bucket player". A guy that trotted out there every day, would start on all but the elite teams and put up some nice power numbers. Come to think of it maybe I did think he was Upton or something close. The bottom line is I never thought he had that "thing" that you see in guys like Bryant, Baez or Russell. That baseball instinct that just makes you better and more likely to succeed. I'll be sad that he didn't get to where I thought he would with the Cubs, not surprised that he didn't get where others thought but I'll also really hope that he can prove himself in Kansas City.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Now that it's official... I still don't know how I feel about it. If Davis hadn't been injured with elbow problems last year I'd get it and be happier about it. Presumably the cubs have run over the medicals and feel comfortable so I suppose there is that. If we want to look at upside here, the cubs didn't wait til midseason and get gouged again for bullpen help. If Davis is healthy him for Soler is probably fair and a lot less painful than the Chapman deal. And if Davis bolts after the season the cubs do recoup probably a 3rd round pick.

I guess my biggest annoyance with the issue is they have talked for 5 years now about young pitching. And then when push comes to shove they've continually dealt pieces away for other things. At this point, I honestly feel like we're just in for the long haul of waiting on Clifton and Cease and the rest of the young guys to develop. I could see them maybe gambling on an unproven young guy if the price is cheap(Henry Owens and Archie Bradley come to mind) but I see no realistic way they land a proven young guy right now without something drastic like deal Baez.

They've only traded 3 players of any note in Soler, Vogelbach and of course Torres whose the one I think will end up being a bit of a regret but we weren't winning the World Series without a closer and Chapman was probably the best choice given the parameters. I'm with you though, I wanted young pitching and still do but I think they've decided to pay for pitching unless or until someone like Cease or De La Cruz steps up and proves he's a big leaguer. Personally I wanted Archer but they want 5 players in return and that ain't happening.

 

[Hammer]

...but I see no realistic way they land a proven young guy right now without something drastic like deal Baez.

IMO, they still have nice pieces in minors like OF Jimenez and IF Happ.

But in the end, they'll probably just go after an ace like Bumgarner or young talent like Otani in 2018, and they'll never have young SP core, but more rely on FA and trades to cover pitching depth (both starters and relievers).


Also, I think this team is kinda set from field positions standpoint for long(er) term future...
C Contreras
1B Rizzo
2B Baez
SS Russell
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber
RF Jimenez (minors)
CF Heyward/Almora

 

[beckdawg]

You hated him so much that it made me seem like a fanboy of Soler's which I have never been. I wrote this on another site in response to the Fangraphs comparison of Soler to Trumbo.

Part of what made Soler valuable as a prospect was people thought he'd be an average RF. He does have a cannon but scouts apparently were very wrong about this route running. The potential for his bat is obviously still there. But as we cubs fans know, where you play makes a big difference on value(See: Schwarber). The other aspect was always health with Soler. I wouldn't be shocked if Soler puts together 1 or 2 monster years eventually. But the difference between that and someone who's consistently great is a big deal. Fowler is sort of a good example of this. If he'd been able to stay on the field in Houston and Colorado he'd likely have been a super star. Instead, he bounced around a bit until finally staying healthy with the cubs.

I think we'd be having a much different conversation if Soler was a player in the early 2000's. Game has sort of moved away from players like him. Defense in the outfield is all the rage.

 

[beckdawg]

They've only traded 3 players of any note in Soler, Vogelbach and of course Torres whose the one I think will end up being a bit of a regret but we weren't winning the World Series without a closer and Chapman was probably the best choice given the parameters. I'm with you though, I wanted young pitching and still do but I think they've decided to pay for pitching unless or until someone like Cease or De La Cruz steps up and proves he's a big leaguer. Personally I wanted Archer but they want 5 players in return and that ain't happening.

People say this often but I don't particularly believe it. There was maybe 1 game(game 5 of the WS) where I felt Chapman made the difference in winning/losing in the playoffs. And part of the talk the front office had made was about finding the next Miller/Davis. I'm sure they are still looking at LH relievers but trading a usable piece away for a proven guy isn't really doing that.

I guess my thing is just that relievers are so up and down that you can't predict them. Davis has been a hell of a pitcher when healthy but he wasn't healthy last year. So, the gamble is on health. Maybe the front office has data suggesting relievers are more valuable than I think. I mean clearly their moves suggest this. But the previous iterations of the cubs(2015 and prior) were building bullpens with spare parts and I never really felt they were bad. Sure you'd end up with he occasional Coke or Veras but those guys didn't cost the 2015 cubs vs the Mets or Cards.

 

[FrankieLyrical]

Part of what made Soler valuable as a prospect was people thought he'd be an average RF. He does have a cannon but scouts apparently were very wrong about this route running. The potential for his bat is obviously still there. But as we cubs fans know, where you play makes a big difference on value(See: Schwarber). The other aspect was always health with Soler. I wouldn't be shocked if Soler puts together 1 or 2 monster years eventually. But the difference between that and someone who's consistently great is a big deal. Fowler is sort of a good example of this. If he'd been able to stay on the field in Houston and Colorado he'd likely have been a super star. Instead, he bounced around a bit until finally staying healthy with the cubs.

I think we'd be having a much different conversation if Soler was a player in the early 2000's. Game has sort of moved away from players like him. Defense in the outfield is all the rage.

Without looking at numbers, I felt like Soler played much better in the field this year than last. Do stats back up that eye test?