Offseason discussion/rumors

[czman]

Did I not praise the Montgomery trade? As for being spoiled, we're in the "offseason discussion/rumors" topic. I'm simply talking about what I'd like to see the cubs do. That was literally the point in me starting this thread. Honestly, I don't see why people are getting so defensive as though no one can question a decision the front office has made. I mean it's not like I will be sitting in the 2017 IST's complaining for days on end about them trading for Wade Davis. I just want to see the cubs build depth in a weak area. I'm sure if you asked Jed and Theo they would say that is their goal. And frankly, I'm sure if they don't come away with some players there this offseason they would consider that a failure too because that is their stated goal.

The problem, and why I think so many people are jumping on you a bit, is that you are not talking about what they should do. You are stating they don't have enough cost controlled arms going forward and they need to add some. The reasonable statement is no one has enough cost controlled arms going forward. There are only so many dollars, picks, and trades. The Cubs team is not perfect. I am not sure if I would say you "sound spoiled", but I see why he said it. I think you just sound like a child playing a baseball video game.

The Cubs choose to stock up on hitting and trade for pitching. It has brought them one WS. They will be contenders this year.

I think everyone would agree the Cubs will need some pitching. It is hard to come by and damn expensive. If they can find some they might be a dynasty. The fact is dynasties in baseball in the modern era are very rare. I am going to keep my expectations reasonable. I suspect that trading for Davis now is cheaper than trading for a closer at the deadline. Additionally Solar may have declining value if the outfield stays healthy as he may not ever see the field if he stays here.

For the record I didn't like the Chapman trade either at the time. I still think they gave up a lot for him. I would rather have had Miller or not traded away as much. I wasn't in the room with the negotiators and it is obvious that they needed a closer in hindsight. So maybe they did overpay. We just don't have enough information about what the actual options were and winning a WS means something.

Lastly, I have said this before. I think some current Cubs fans have a skewed idea of how many prospects actually succeed and how much they are actually "worth" to a team. I am sure people can say X% of Y level prospects make Z all-star games. That does not mean they understand at an emotional level. Many times facts don't register on the emotional level and the gut reaction to to sports tends to be far from logical. I think the over valuing comes down to two things.

1) The really bad years where all we had to look forward to was minor leaguers.
2) The fact so many of these guys have come up and done so well.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There was hope last weekend that two-way Japanese superstar Shohei Otani would be on his way to the major leagues after next season, but it may be time to pump the brakes on that optimism. Major league officials met with international scouting directors Tuesday and informed them that there will be no special treatment for Otani under the new collective bargaining agreement, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). Thus, if the right-handed ace/left-handed hitter’s current team – the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters – does make him available to major league clubs after next season, the international rules included in the CBA will significantly limit his earning power.

As the CBA stipulates – and as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan details – teams only have between $4.75MM to $5.75MM per year to spend on international free agents who are under 25. They can trade for up to 75 percent more spending room, meaning $8.3MM to $10MM is the most any club would be able to allocate to Otani. Moreover, Otani wouldn’t have the ability to become a major league free agent until he has six years of service time. That further takes away incentive for him to immigrate to the majors until at least after the 2019 season, when he’ll be 25.

Under the prior CBA, international restrictions would have only applied to Otani until he turned 23. His 23rd birthday is next July, meaning he could have been in position to sign a mega-deal a year from now had the previous rules stayed in place.

“Just when Otani was about to come over, they changed the rules” a major league scout who works in Japan told Jim Allen of Kyodo News.

Otani has garnered significant hype as a pitcher, even generating Noah Syndergaard comparisons, thanks in part to a fastball that can touch 102 mph on the radar gun. He dominated in Nippon Professional Baseball last season with a four-pitch mix, recording a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 3.87 K/BB in 140 innings. Otani broke out as a hitter, too, with a stellar .322/.416/.588 line and 22 home runs across 382 plate appearances. As a result, the NPB named him both the best pitcher and top hitter of the 2016 season. Now, to the chagrin of MLB fans, it seems Otani will remain a member of the NPB for at least three more seasons.

I've heard a bunch of opinions on this and while MLB is saying absolutely no to an exception for Otani right now most observers are also quick to point out everything is negotiable. This is a player who would help the game of baseball, possibly the second best pitcher in the world after Kershaw, and you would hope some smart people figure that out especially after both the player and the player's team said on Monday that he would be posted and playing in MLB in 2018. If they hold to the rules they're going to look bad and it will hurt any new posting agreement with the NPB, of which they currently don't have one as it's negotiated year to year. I'm not going to hold my breath on Otani, chances are that baseball will be it's usual obstinate self, but I would never say never given some of the mitigating factors.

 

[SilenceS]

I've heard a bunch of opinions on this and while MLB is saying absolutely no to an exception for Otani right now most observers are also quick to point out everything is negotiable. This is a player who would help the game of baseball, possibly the second best pitcher in the world after Kershaw, and you would hope some smart people figure that out especially after both the player and the player's team said on Monday that he would be posted and playing in MLB in 2018. If they hold to the rules they're going to look bad and it will hurt any new posting agreement with the NPB, of which they currently don't have one as it's negotiated year to year. I'm not going to hold my breath on Otani, chances are that baseball will be it's usual obstinate self, but I would never say never given some of the mitigating factors.

I have never seen Otani, but I can only assume he is this guy.

 

[Omeletpants]

Cubs pick up Caleb Smith from Brewers:

The Cubs made a deal with the Brewers after the Rule 5 draft acquiring lefty Caleb Smith. Milwaukee selected Smith from the Yankees during the draft so Smith has to be on the Cubs 25 man roster for the entire season. He was a 14th round pick in 2013 and will make the jump from Double-A to the big leagues. He'll be the Cubs long man taking Mike Montgomery's role. He can also be a spot starter compiling a 3.41 ERA in 4 minor league seasons.

 

[CSF77]

Smith ran a 3.4 BB/9 8.3 SO/9 for the most part a starter in the Yanks system. Seems they are going to stretch RobZ out at AAA this year.

 

[The-0]

What are the plans for la Stella? Bat compares favorably to a guy like Darwin Barney. Seems like he would have some value.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Just throwing this out there -- Wade Davis is a better closer than Chapman. The only relievers who I might take over Davis are Kenley Jansen, Zach Britton and Andrew Miller. Davis is a top 5 closer and I would probably put him 4th, with Chapman 5th.

Davis's cutter is fucking insane. Nobody on earth can hit it. His Big Three (Fast ball at 95, cutter and curve ball) combination is disgusting. He's going to be absolutely dominant in the NL next year.

I hope teams enjoy Edwards at 97 with Davis on deck behind him.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

What are the plans for la Stella? Bat compares favorably to a guy like Darwin Barney. Seems like he would have some value.

If La Stella isn't back, Ommy's gonna have a shit fit.

 

[Omeletpants]

If La Stella isn't back, Ommy's gonna have a shit fit.

agreed

 

[CSF77]

Jake Arrieta‘s agent, Scott Boras, says he will discuss an extension with the Cubs next month when the two sides exchange arbitration figures, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets. There have been rumblings of extension talk for over a year between Arrieta and the Cubs, but the two sides haven’t reached a deal, and reportedly hadn’t come close to one as of last April.

After his brilliant Cy Young season in 2015, the 30-year-old Arrieta was modestly — but only modestly — disappointing in 2016, posting a 3.10 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 197 1/3 innings. He’s had three straight strong seasons in Chicago, though, and still appears likely to cash in if he waits until he’s eligible for free agency at the end of next season. He’s currently set to make a projected $16.8MM next season through the arbitration process.

There’s ample precedent for extensions for star pitchers with five-plus years of service time — Boras negotiated a $175MM deal for Stephen Strasburg last May, and he would probably aim in that direction for Arrieta, who has had more recent success than Strasburg but is also two years older than Strasburg was at the time of his deal. Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels and Homer Bailey have also signed nine-figure deals with five-plus years of service time.

 

[CSF77]

I would think he would want a 5 year deal. Last year hurt his chances at a mega deal.

I'm thinking with Otani blocked for 3 years this makes sense. I wouldn't go further with him at all. Maybe 5/125

 

[chibears55]

@BleacherNation: Sounds like Cubs are close to a one-year deal with Koji Uehara in the $6 million range.

42 YO RH reliever from Boston
Not sure how much he has left in tank
though he hasn't been used a lot last couple years innings wise.


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[chibears55]

I would think he would want a 5 year deal. Last year hurt his chances at a mega deal.

I'm thinking with Otani blocked for 3 years this makes sense. I wouldn't go further with him at all. Maybe 5/125

Id offer 3yrs with 4th and 5th mutual option

Teams arent going to offer him at 32 5 yrs guarentee for 20+ per. .



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[beckdawg]

I think everyone would agree the Cubs will need some pitching. It is hard to come by and damn expensive.

Lastly, I have said this before. I think some current Cubs fans have a skewed idea of how many prospects actually succeed and how much they are actually "worth" to a team.

Wanted to talk about these 2 bits. Firstly, if we're not talking about ways to acquire pitching what's the point of this thread? I mean we all know the cubs have fabulous hitting. They have arguably one of the best 5 young players at every position in the infield as well as LF and possibly RF if Heyward fixes what broke last year. Legitimately the only question the cubs have offensively is depth at C and the CF platoon. Do I need to qualify everything first by saying the "hitting is great but..."? Have at any point I suggested acquiring pitching is easy because I'm fairly certain I've said multiple times I realize it's difficult. If people want to engage in talk about CF/C fine I'll talk that but it's frankly not that important. Pitching has been been will continue to be the longest term issue with the cubs. So, of course that's what I'm going to bring up when talking about improving the team which is the point of the thread. If that makes someone spoiled or whatever term you'd prefer to use then I just don't get it.

As to the second point, I'm not implying the cubs necessarily should have kept any player to actually keep them. The point was always in reference to your first point that pitching can be hard to acquire and expensive when you do. You can't trade what you don't have. If someone wants to argue that Chapman/Davis are worth the price that's fine. I've stated my feelings on this already so I don't see the need to go back into it. And frankly, it doesn't much matter either way because it happened already. I can guarantee you I wont be lamenting the Davis trade a month from now but the conversation started the day it went down and it was still fresh on my mind and brought back memories of the Chapman rental which I obviously wasn't a fan of.

Going forward, trades are going to get painful. Teams might settle for Happ and Jiminez but they will ask for Baez for any real front line starter. That's just the world we live in logistically now.

 

[beckdawg]

@BleacherNation: Sounds like Cubs are close to a one-year deal with Koji Uehara in the $6 million range.

42 YO RH reliever from Boston
Not sure how much he has left in tank
though he hasn't been used a lot last couple years innings wise.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I527 using Tapatalk

Like this. He's quite strong against lefties. They hit .139/.200/.278 against him last year. He's a bit of a reverse split guy but also probably is decent enough to pitch to some rightis.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

@BleacherNation: Sounds like Cubs are close to a one-year deal with Koji Uehara in the $6 million range.

42 YO RH reliever from Boston
Not sure how much he has left in tank
though he hasn't been used a lot last couple years innings wise.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I527 using Tapatalk

WTF the guy is 42 years old? Why don't we just pursue Eric Gagne while we're at it?

 

[Omeletpants]

Wonder where the Cubs farm system ranks now?

 

[beckdawg]

Wonder where the Cubs farm system ranks now?

Probably in the 15-25 range depending on who you like. Happ and Jiminez are good at the top but the rest is mostly a lot of depth than stand out stars right now. If they are lucky that depth develops into stars but right now guys like Eddy Martinez could really go either way. Plus, A lot of their depth is pitching now which is risky both injury and actual development. If I'm remembering correctly, something like 20% of top 100 pitching prospects actually turn out to be around average. So, you can imagine how arms that aren't as highly though of yet fair.

 

[beckdawg]

Like this. He's quite strong against lefties. They hit .139/.200/.278 against him last year. He's a bit of a reverse split guy but also probably is decent enough to pitch to some rightis.

To add to this, the past 3 years Koji has had a .167/.213/.336 average against LH with a 29.9% k rate. That K rate is 14th best among all pitchers with min 70 innings pitched behind Dellin Betances, Will Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Kershaw, Cody Allen, David Robertson, Jansen, Sale, Bumgarner, Davis, McCullers, Darvish, and Zach Duke .

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Probably in the 15-25 range depending on who you like. Happ and Jiminez are good at the top but the rest is mostly a lot of depth than stand out stars right now. If they are lucky that depth develops into stars but right now guys like Eddy Martinez could really go either way. Plus, A lot of their depth is pitching now which is risky both injury and actual development. If I'm remembering correctly, something like 20% of top 100 pitching prospects actually turn out to be around average. So, you can imagine how arms that aren't as highly though of yet fair.

Happ, Jimenez and Candelario are almost certain MLB talent. I think Zastryzny is an MLB pitcher but to what level I have no idea. Cease and De La Cruz have TOR type arms and velo but young pitching is never a sure thing. Everyone else is a crapshoot to be honest. They're probably somewhere in the bottom half but 15-25 is probably about right.