Offseason discussion/rumors

[DanTown]

Eh... he talked about this. Coming up in Colorado's system they taught him to play shallow for whatever reason. The big change that improved his defense was he started positioning deeper. He essentially decided to do it on his own but the cubs basically were in agreement that it was a good idea. He's always had the tools to have good range but the problem he used to have was balls would get hit over his head because he was positioned so shallow. The defensive metrics knocked him hard for that.

I mean he's not Willie Mays out there but I don't think he's going to fall off a cliff.

Shocking that an impending FA would claim that he, not the team that is on the forefront of positioning players and using data to eliminate outs, would take credit for his all of the sudden passable defense. You saw something similar with Grienke in Arizona - sometimes it's really hard to scout the players on very good teams because your new team won't have the same data/information to know to play Fowler in better positions. You also are getting Fowler's age 31-35 seasons so you're not getting a prime CF in terms of defense.

And it doesn't have to be a cliff for him to fall off either; if he doesn't have a half of baseball where he hits like a MVP candidate, I question his ability to provide value on that deal. I also think his injury history is a concern too.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I love Dex, but I think people don't realize how much the Cubs and their insane positioning group creates the defense they have. His defense only became passable with the Cubs because his range went from massively negative to slightly positive and the Cardinals don't have that system for him to walk in to. While his bat was good here, it was also incredibly streaky and it's always easier to get out of a slump when you're surrounded by great players because teams, even when you're struggling, still have to throw you strikes. He also derives a lot of value from baserunning and I'm not sure I trust a guy at age 32+ to give me highly positive baserunning value while playing every day in the outfield.

I love Dex, I think he was insanely valuable for the Cubs these past two years, but to give him 5/80 and give up a first round pick seems insane to me. Cardinals basically need Dex to be a 3+ WAR guy every year of this deal and if he's not that because his defense slips + time off due to an injury like he has every year, this deal can get away from you quickly. Someone is going to come in and tell me that $8 million / WAR is the current market rate and while I think I have even used that number in the past, I think that number is far too high to evaluate any deal and I was wrong when I did. Looking at what St Louis is paying for, I think they need Dexter to be about 15 WAR or else they've drastically overpaid the market (especially losing a first round pick).

I don't think there's much chance that he doesn't earn the deal. With $80 mil you're talking that you need 10-12 WAR, just over 2 WAR/yr, but the Cardinals are obviously hopping for more the first 2 years. If he compiles 8 WAR in the first 2 and 6 in the last 3 he'll have given them a value deal.

 

[brett05]

Wanted to talk about these 2 bits. Firstly, if we're not talking about ways to acquire pitching what's the point of this thread?

The point of the thread is to discuss offseason moves and rumors. The thread has been derailed many, many times. But it's ok.

 

[brett05]

Happ, Jimenez and Candelario are almost certain MLB talent. I think Zastryzny is an MLB pitcher but to what level I have no idea. Cease and De La Cruz have TOR type arms and velo but young pitching is never a sure thing. Everyone else is a crapshoot to be honest. They're probably somewhere in the bottom half but 15-25 is probably about right.

Probably in the 15-25 range depending on who you like. Happ and Jiminez are good at the top but the rest is mostly a lot of depth than stand out stars right now. If they are lucky that depth develops into stars but right now guys like Eddy Martinez could really go either way. Plus, A lot of their depth is pitching now which is risky both injury and actual development. If I'm remembering correctly, something like 20% of top 100 pitching prospects actually turn out to be around average. So, you can imagine how arms that aren't as highly though of yet fair.

Which honestly is just fine and dandy. It's rare to be a Dodger/Red Sox. They are striking now while it is hot over this window.

 

[anotheridiot]

cubs have a hole to fill at leadoff, but I think we can get past that with the 6 great bats in the lineup everyday. Fowler does not respond well to big long deals. He wont finish that contract in St Louis. Personally, I am glad he is signed somewhere and not throwing a wrench in the plans again. I would have preferred to see Heyward in center last year and more playing time for Soler so he could show his worth instead of being dealt away. I wont remember Fowler for he goes we go, I will always remember him as the guy that tore up Schwarbers knee thinking he was all world center field and running into left to catch a ball the first week of the season.

Good riddance, at least now he is on a team where more cub fans can hate him.

 

[brett05]

cubs have a hole to fill at leadoff, but I think we can get past that with the 6 great bats in the lineup everyday. Fowler does not respond well to big long deals. He wont finish that contract in St Louis. Personally, I am glad he is signed somewhere and not throwing a wrench in the plans again. I would have preferred to see Heyward in center last year and more playing time for Soler so he could show his worth instead of being dealt away. I wont remember Fowler for he goes we go, I will always remember him as the guy that tore up Schwarbers knee thinking he was all world center field and running into left to catch a ball the first week of the season.

Good riddance, at least now he is on a team where more cub fans can hate him.

Is this a serious post or a great troll job impersonation?

 

[DanTown]

I don't think there's much chance that he doesn't earn the deal. With $80 mil you're talking that you need 10-12 WAR, just over 2 WAR/yr, but the Cardinals are obviously hopping for more the first 2 years. If he compiles 8 WAR in the first 2 and 6 in the last 3 he'll have given them a value deal.

I think there's no chance he's going to be a 4 WAR guy in any season of this deal. I think he tops out at 3 next year if he's lucky and quickly falls to a 1-2 WAR guy.

And I don't think them getting 12 WAR for 80 million + giving up a draft pick is what I consider good value for multiple reasons. The first is that even if Fowler is a 4 WAR guy next year, what does it do for them? If they win an extra three-four games, what does that do for them? They won 86 games last year and lost the division by nearly 20 games. Add to it, the decline years is when the Cardinals are more likely to compete to win (hopefully) yet they're going to be paying Fowler a lot of money to potentially play LF. I mean they just got out of the Matt Holiday contract and it's like "let's get right back in". Considering the other money they have to fairly average players already eating up their payroll (Cecil, Leake), I just question how Fowler truly ever helps them win. Secondly, I don't think it's just some given he gets to 10+ WAR. Last year by all measures was the first time Dexter ever had a year with that much value; the question you ask yourself is how likely is a guy to repeat that. Some guys (Jose Bautista) have a career year in the late 20s/early 30s and change the arc of their career and other guys who have a career year (Angel Pagan, Jacoby Ellsbury) and that's it. With Dexter, I tend to believe he's more Pagan than Bautista for reasons I outlined earlier: I don't trust his legs to hold up and continue to give him excessive value as a baserunner (12th in baseball), I don't trust his range to continue to be ok in CF without the Cubs and their positioning gurus, and I don't trust his bat to continue to provide a ton of value. My final reason for this being poor expenditures is the draft pick. Giving up the 18th (Colorado had already forfeited a pick) pick in the draft is a fairly sizable loss in terms of prospect value and in terms of dollar for slot to use later. Draft picks are obviously super valuable because it's a great way to get cheap labor that vastly outproduces it's cost. I tend to believe that if you're going to sign anyone who costs you draft compensation, you have to be playing for a realistic chance at the WS; anything less is giving up too much value in a draft pick.

Summary: Considering where the Cardinals are, where the Cubs are, where the other teams in the division are or plan to be going, I simply think the Fowler deal has far too much risk and long term potential harm for future spending to justify for a team like St. Louis.

Three predictions I'll make and we can check back on them
1. Heyward will produce both more WAR and a better WAR / $ ratio
2. Fowler will never have a 3 WAR (rolling average of bWAR, fWAR, and bpWAR) season in that deal
3. Fowler will fail to better 12 WAR (rolling average) for the life of the deal

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Cubs were never bringing him back unless it was a similar deal to last year.

No shit.

 

[brett05]

I think there's no chance he's going to be a 4 WAR guy in any season of this deal. I think he tops out at 3 next year if he's lucky and quickly falls to a 1-2 WAR guy.

And I don't think them getting 12 WAR for 80 million + giving up a draft pick is what I consider good value for multiple reasons. The first is that even if Fowler is a 4 WAR guy next year, what does it do for them? The decline years is when the Cardinals are more likely to compete to win yet they're going to be paying Fowler a lot of money to potentially play LF. Secondly, I don't think it's just some given he gets to 10 WAR. Last year by all measures was the first time Dexter ever had a year with that much value; the question you ask yourself is how likely is a guy to repeat that. Some guys (Jose Bautista) have a career year in the late 20s/early 30s and change the arc of their career and other guys who have a career year (Angel Pagan, Jacoby Ellsbury) and that's it. With Dexter, I tend to believe he's more Pagan than Bautista for reasons I outlined earlier: I don't trust his legs to hold up and continue to give him excessive value as a baserunner (12th in baseball), I don't trust his range to continue to be ok in CF without the Cubs and their positioning gurus, and I don't trust his bat to continue to provide a ton of value.

Three predictions I'll make and we can check back on them
1. Heyward will produce both more WAR and a better WAR / $ ratio
2. Fowler will never have a 3 WAR (rolling average of bWAR, fWAR, and bpWAR) season in that deal
3. Fowler will fail to better 12 WAR (rolling average) for the life of the deal

I'll take opposite on all of them mins 3 and change that to the value of current WAR which is 10 and take the over.

 

[CSF77]

Who cares to be honest. Cubs did not want to tie up contract on him. What he does is his own business. He got paid good for him

 

[DanTown]

Getting back to the Cubs, you have to feel they have maybe a move or two left in terms of adding a C to the 40 man and adding a few arms but the 25 man roster seems fairly close to set

Hitters - 12 most likely
Locks - 11
Montero, Contereras, Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Zobrist, Heyward, Schwarber, Jay, Almora
Bubble Guys - 1 spot available
Candelario, LaStella, Szczur

Pitchers - 13 most likely
Locks - 11
Hendricks, Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Montgomery, Rondon, Strop, Davis, Edwards, Uehara, Grimm

Bubble - 2 spots
Zastryzny, Johnson, Smith, Duensinng, Leathersich

I feel that either LaStella or Szczur goes in a deal for a 3rd C or a fringe starter.

 

[Adipost]

All this Fowler hate is laughable. I don't know the exact stats, but I'm sure the Cubs were one of the top teams scoring first last season thanks partly to DF .500+ OBP in the first inning. Not only that, his pitches per at bat was 4th best in all of baseball. He routinely made the pitcher work 7-8 pitches which directly benefited Kris Bryant.

 

[SilenceS]

Fowler was very streaky, but he kept the OBP up which helped. He had a great second half his first year with the Cubs and another great first half last year. He had sub par other halves. He is a good played, but the Cards had to give up a lot to get him. 80 mill and a first is a lot for him. Im glad the Cards gave it up.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Getting back to the Cubs, you have to feel they have maybe a move or two left in terms of adding a C to the 40 man and adding a few arms but the 25 man roster seems fairly close to set

Hitters - 12 most likely
Locks - 11
Montero, Contereras, Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Zobrist, Heyward, Schwarber, Jay, Almora
Bubble Guys - 1 spot available
Candelario, LaStella, Szczur

Pitchers - 13 most likely
Locks - 11
Hendricks, Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Montgomery, Rondon, Strop, Davis, Edwards, Uehara, Grimm

Bubble - 2 spots
Zastryzny, Johnson, Smith, Duensinng, Leathersich

I feel that either LaStella or Szczur goes in a deal for a 3rd C or a fringe starter.

Szczur I can see, La Stella not so much. It's not that I don't think the Cubs would move him but rather that my question would be who would take him? Don't get me wrong he's a nice little player, he gives you a contact bat off the bench, can play 2B and 3B and could probably cover one of those positions for a month or two in case of injury. My issue is where his head is at. This is a guy who has seriously considered quitting the game twice, initially refused a AAA assignment last year and made the statement that the only team in baseball he wanted to play for was the Cubs, and that didn't include their minor league teams. You can wonder if he meant all that or was just having some kind of hissy fit/meltdown but how the hell do you know for sure? Even if the Cubs put him on the phone with the inquiring team to assure them that he was excited to be playing for them how would you know whether to believe him? I'm telling you from my time in managing people I would not. I think he's either a Cub or he goes away.

 

[SilenceS]

All this Fowler hate is laughable. I don't know the exact stats, but I'm sure the Cubs were one of the top teams scoring first last season thanks partly to DF .500+ OBP in the first inning. Not only that, his pitches per at bat was 4th best in all of baseball. He routinely made the pitcher work 7-8 pitches which directly benefited Kris Bryant.

I dont think anyone is hating on him except maybe anotheridiot. You think Fowler having that OBP and seeing those pitches are a result of him and not who was behind him? I mean you are going to see a lot of good pitches in the first when you have the MVP and another top 5 MVP behind him. Im guessing you are a Cardinals fan.

 

[SilenceS]

Szczur I can see, La Stella not so much. It's not that I don't think the Cubs would move him but rather that my question would be who would take him? Don't get me wrong he's a nice little player, he gives you a contact bat off the bench, can play 2B and 3B and could probably cover one of those positions for a month or two in case of injury. My issue is where his head is at. This is a guy who has seriously considered quitting the game twice, initially refused a AAA assignment last year and made the statement that the only team in baseball he wanted to play for was the Cubs, and that didn't include their minor league teams. You can wonder if he meant all that or was just having some kind of hissy fit/meltdown but how the hell do you know for sure? Even if the Cubs put him on the phone with the inquiring team to assure them that he was excited to be playing for them how would you know whether to believe him? I'm telling you from my time in managing people I would not. I think he's either a Cub or he goes away.

LaStella seems to think he is a starter in the league. I dont think so, but its nice to dream.

 

[Adipost]

I dont think anyone is hating on him except maybe anotheridiot. You think Fowler having that OBP and seeing those pitches are a result of him and not who was behind him? I mean you are going to see a lot of good pitches in the first when you have the MVP and another top 5 MVP behind him. Im guessing you are a Cardinals fan.

Actually, Fowler was more valuable to Bryant than the other way around. What made him special was working counts and taking a tremendous amount of walks. This gassed the pitcher with Bryant coming to the plate. And it forced the pitcher to go right at KB with a runner on first. The fact that Bryant batted behind Fowler makes DF pitch rate and walk rate even more impressive as the last thing the pitcher wanted to do was to walk Fowler.

 

[SilenceS]

Actually, Fowler was more valuable to Bryant than the other way around. What made him special was working counts and taking a tremendous amount of walks. This gassed the pitcher with Bryant coming to the plate. And it forced the pitcher to go right at KB with a runner on first. The fact that Bryant batted behind Fowler makes DF pitch rate and walk rate even more impressive as the last thing the pitcher wanted to do was to walk Fowler.

The pitcher was gassed by the first inning to the first batter? What? Rizzo forced pitchers to pitch to Bryant not Fowler. This is a weird view.



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[DanTown]

Szczur I can see, La Stella not so much. It's not that I don't think the Cubs would move him but rather that my question would be who would take him? Don't get me wrong he's a nice little player, he gives you a contact bat off the bench, can play 2B and 3B and could probably cover one of those positions for a month or two in case of injury. My issue is where his head is at. This is a guy who has seriously considered quitting the game twice, initially refused a AAA assignment last year and made the statement that the only team in baseball he wanted to play for was the Cubs, and that didn't include their minor league teams. You can wonder if he meant all that or was just having some kind of hissy fit/meltdown but how the hell do you know for sure? Even if the Cubs put him on the phone with the inquiring team to assure them that he was excited to be playing for them how would you know whether to believe him? I'm telling you from my time in managing people I would not. I think he's either a Cub or he goes away.

When I say a LaStella trade, I'm more or less talking about something like to the Angels for one of their defensive C or something to that effect.

If he doesn't want to play anywhere else, then he's competiting for a roster spot and if he doesn't make it, Cubs probably force him to retire because they really don't want him to go down to Iowa and take AB from either Candelario or Young (who if you keep in AA sits behind Happ).

 

[RacerX]

probably, not much if it's anything like the cub's previous ventures into oriental players. Seems like other teams bring in these guys and they're great additions. We get fukadome, fugikawa, choi, wada...wtf.

lol