Offseason discussion/rumors

[chibears55]

When I say a LaStella trade, I'm more or less talking about something like to the Angels for one of their defensive C or something to that effect.

If he doesn't want to play anywhere else, then he's competiting for a roster spot and if he doesn't make it, Cubs probably force him to retire because they really don't want him to go down to Iowa and take AB from either Candelario or Young (who if you keep in AA sits behind Happ).

I still think they might look to bring in saltamachia

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[Omeletpants]

Because of what you just said
Wouldn't surprise me if Maddon considers putting Heyward in leadoff spot to see better pitches with Bryant after him...

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Cause Maddon highly values the 4-3 ground out

 

[chibears55]

Fowler got 5 years 82.5 million and a full no trade clause. I thought his value was at 3 to 4 years and 14 million. I am really shocked he got 5 years and a full no trade clause. When did the Cardinals lose their minds? I guess a Cubs WS and losing two players to the Cubs last off-season broke them.

I really think Fowler may be one of the best things to happen to the Cubs. He played well for the Cubs, helping win a WS during his prime years. Then he signed a 5 year deal, as he exists his prime, with a full no trade in the division, and it is highly unlikely he will live up to that contract.

I really believe this was Cardinals way to try and stick it back to cubs for taking Heyward ..
So..they went high to make sure they got him

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[pseudonym]

With Fowler gone, who will take the #1 slot, and lead off? I saw someone say Heyward, BLECH. Really? Any other thoughts? Zobrist would be the next highest OBP after Fowler, I think, but he's not starting every game, right?

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

My point was not about anything you specifically might have predicted. There were a bunch of absurd predictions that had Fowler settling for a contract that was 60% of his actual value. Just bizarre: http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/showthread.php/83103-Fowler-says-he-will-be-free-agent

You read some bizarre on the internet? OMG!!!

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Cause Maddon highly values the 4-3 ground out

LOL. Or the 30-foot moonshot deep in the infield to the 2B?

 

[TL1961]

I really believe this was Cardinals way to try and stick it back to cubs for taking Heyward ..
So..they went high to make sure they got him

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It had nothing to do with that.

How is it "sticking it to the Cubs:", by signing a guy the Cubs weren't trying to sign?

The Cards addressed a glaring need. They had nobody who can play a decent CF, and they also helped leadoff and can move Carpenter to 3rd and take more advantage of his OPS. (If he doesn't pout and insist on battling leadoff as he has done in the past.)

GM's don't last long making moves based on "revenge".

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I know common "wisdom" is that 1 WAR= 8mil, but I don't think that is what winning teams pay. I guess if you look at all of the FA contracts and tally up the price per WAR and average you may get something close to 8mill per WAR. That just seems like a silly way to look at it though. All that really means is that when you take all of the horrible contracts, all of the great contracts, and all of the rest you get an average. Teams don't win by getting average contracts. They just don't. They win by getting better than value for their money in a vast majority of the deals.

I think for a contract to be considered good, you really want to pay closer to 5-6 million per WAR. If you are paying 8 you are doing just as good as the most contracts and that will put you right in the middle of the pack (read that as competing for a WC spot).

Here is what I mean (dropping the value of the WS win this season).
Zobrist signed a 4 year 56 million dollar deal. For you he needs 7 WAR to be a good deal. I think that is way to expensive. at 6 million per WAR he needs 9.333. He needs about 6 WAR over the next 3 years to get to 6 million per WAR. He needs 5 for yours. If Zobrist adds 5 WAR over the next 3 seasons are you going to call that deal a success. My guess is no you won't.

Team really need to pay 5-6 million per WAR to be doing well. If you are paying 8 million per WAR you are probably doing it wrong.

Fowler would have to get 13-14 WAR over the course of the 5 years to be a good deal. That is going to be 2.5-3 WAR a year for the course of the deal. If he gets 10 WAR over the 5 years, that is not a good deal. It is a deal that pushes you to the middle of the pact in baseball.

I think you just illustrated why you can't win by signing multiple FA. For the most part $8 mil/WAR is what those guys cost and if you tried to field a team of them you'd have a $400 mil payroll. In order to offset the costs of the inevitability of having to plug holes with FA you have to have young, controllable players that make way under that number or get a player to sign a contract early forgoing or postponing a big payday in favor of security. The Cubs have done both and signed FA in areas of need. The entire infield is ridiculously underpaid because of the cost control measures of the CBA with the MLBPA. Bryant, Russell and Baez by the pre-arbitration years and Rizzo by one of those security over big money deals. Rizzo is going to make $7 mil in both 2017 and 2018 and I don't think anyone would argue that he is woefully underpaid and yet it was his decision based on the avenues available to him. I look at it as a balance of underpaid and fairly paid players you seem to feel that it's fairly or near fairly paid players and overpaid players. I just disagree with your assessment.

 

[brett05]

How much you pay per war means nothing really. If you paid as an example say Fowler for his one year in 2016 $300 million dollars. Was there value in that deal? Financially no. Realistically yes, you won the WS and he was a major part of that. Go the other way and pay Fowler the minimum. Is there value? tons. Does it matter? No. You won regardless of what he was paid.

 

[fatbeard]

You read some bizarre on the internet? OMG!!!

Speaking of bizarre things on the internet, how's your broken heart doing?

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Speaking of bizarre things on the internet, how's your broken heart doing?

Awful. After Urias tossed a No-No against us in the NLCS, things just haven't been the same.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

How much you pay per war means nothing really. If you paid as an example say Fowler for his one year in 2016 $300 million dollars. Was there value in that deal? Financially no. Realistically yes, you won the WS and he was a major part of that. Go the other way and pay Fowler the minimum. Is there value? tons. Does it matter? No. You won regardless of what he was paid.

In the end it is kind of meaningless. You couldn't possibly pay Mike Trout what he's worth and there's already talk of guys like Bryce Harper getting $400 mil plus deals. The point was, at least for me, that you have to game the system and develop players to win. That's why I've been so impressed with Rick Hahn and your boys. He just made an instant farm system out of one amazing asset and an overvalued one.

 

[85Bears]

I'll always wish Dex well and look forward to him getting a standing O when he comes back to Wrigley. Only thing that rubs me the wrong way is in his press conference: "It was an honor just to be even considered to be in the Cardinals organization. I feel like this team has a chance to win the World Series, and that was a big part in coming here."

Really, Dex? Really?

Oh well, I guess he has to say stuff like that now. But man...

 

[CSF77]

I believe Szczur will get the 25th man if he doesn't get traded. No options is no options.

He was #2 in PH last year and that is what you want from a sub.

Line up wise:

Schwarber=> Bryant or Zobrist
Jay=> Almora
Heyward=> Bryant or Zobrist

Now that is where Baez gets his AB's at 2B/3B.

Now on the surface you would think LaStella>Szczur now. But we are talking about a 25th man. Basically with Baez there are no AB's there. At that point you are looking at emergency or PH duty. All things concidered here the only guy that would kill them is Baez injured.

I would go with Szczur. Trade LaStella if he whines. Candi AAA for emergency.

Then sign a UI to stuff in AAA just in case.

 

[anotheridiot]

I would take Kawasaki over Stella whiney *****. **** him right off this team already. Yeah, its a problem with only having Baez to cover 2B, 3B and SS the way Maddon manages games, but I would think Contrares remembers enough about third base to play there in a pinch with Montero still here and Schwarber to catch. Thats why Stella might stick here yet again. I dont think Maddon is too excited about naming Baez everyday anywhere, so they will tend to not look for another utility guy.

I still think they are trying to find a taker on Montero though, but the taking team probably only wants to pay 2 or 3 of the 14 million owed to him.

I still hoped they were able to sign Villanueva back to a minor league deal though.

 

[Omeletpants]

I loves me some LaStella

 

[CSF77]

They really need a guy that can play SS in a pinch.

 

[beckdawg]

With Fowler gone, who will take the #1 slot, and lead off? I saw someone say Heyward, BLECH. Really? Any other thoughts? Zobrist would be the next highest OBP after Fowler, I think, but he's not starting every game, right?

Someone mentioned awhile back that Schwarber might lead off. Don't remember if it was the front office, maddon or just speculation on bleacher nation. He's clearly not a prototypical guy for it but he's a very patient hitter.

 

[CSF77]

Maddon wanted it but the numbers guys argued against it

 

[TL1961]

Maddon wanted it but the numbers guys argued against it

"It"?