I'm not sure why people think Fowler can't live it up to this contract. I said an earlier post that he needed to amass 10-12 fWAR over the rest of the deal but as someone correctly pointed out it's really just 10 with WAR being valued at $8 mil/WAR. Dexter was a 4.7 WAR in 2016 and 3.3 WAR in 2015. Before coming to Chicago he played for some questionable teams in Houston and Colorado and didn't seem to get a lot of coaching. In Chicago he got that and he brings that with him to St. Louis. Now I don't think a lot about Matheny there but they do have talented coached and Dexter brings what he learned. I fully expect him to be a 4 WAR player in 2017 & 2018 and after that most of you get is gravy. If the Cardinals get 1 more big bat I think they nip at our heels all season and while I don't think they'll take the division I'd pencil them into the WC even without that bat. If you don't think Fowler makes them much better I think you're letting your emotions cloud your judgement.
edit: I realize you weren't on the negative side of this so when I say "you" it's the royal "you". Sorry for any confusion.
I know common "wisdom" is that 1 WAR= 8mil, but I don't think that is what winning teams pay. I guess if you look at all of the FA contracts and tally up the price per WAR and average you may get something close to 8mill per WAR. That just seems like a silly way to look at it though. All that really means is that when you take all of the horrible contracts, all of the great contracts, and all of the rest you get an average. Teams don't win by getting average contracts. They just don't. They win by getting better than value for their money in a vast majority of the deals.
I think for a contract to be considered good, you really want to pay closer to 5-6 million per WAR. If you are paying 8 you are doing just as good as the most contracts and that will put you right in the middle of the pack (read that as competing for a WC spot).
Here is what I mean (dropping the value of the WS win this season).
Zobrist signed a 4 year 56 million dollar deal. For you he needs 7 WAR to be a good deal. I think that is way to expensive. at 6 million per WAR he needs 9.333. He needs about 6 WAR over the next 3 years to get to 6 million per WAR. He needs 5 for yours. If Zobrist adds 5 WAR over the next 3 seasons are you going to call that deal a success. My guess is no you won't.
Team really need to pay 5-6 million per WAR to be doing well. If you are paying 8 million per WAR you are probably doing it wrong.
Fowler would have to get 13-14 WAR over the course of the 5 years to be a good deal. That is going to be 2.5-3 WAR a year for the course of the deal. If he gets 10 WAR over the 5 years, that is not a good deal. It is a deal that pushes you to the middle of the pact in baseball.
