Offseason discussion/rumors

[chibears55]

- Nationals replaced Espinosa with Adam Eaton so I'd call that fairly sizable.
- Giants added Melancon so they probably get more wins than previous just by nature of having more reliability in the 8th/9th.
- Dodgers are potentially going to more than double the 42 starts they got from Kerhsaw, Hill, and Urias

If that all you got, then I rest my case..
No NL team really bulked up and improved greatly this off season with trades or FA pickups..

Nationals may of added Eaton but it seems like that pissed of some of their players..

Melancon an improvement for bullpen but I don't see it as making a major difference for them..

They had all 3 starters in playoff..didn't help
I personally don't think Hill going to come close to what he did last year..which was a huge career year.
This will be Urias second go around, hitters will adjust to him
We will see if he can adjust to them..



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[TC in Mississippi]

Despite their flirtation with trading McCutchen it wouldn't surprise me to see Pittsburgh compete. McCutchen is likely to come out with a chip on his shoulder and if he's MVP quality that should give them and their young pitching staff a boost. St. Louis should be a WC lock and, if they did some nuts like sign Encarnacion, they'd be a threat in the Central. I know thus us going to sound crazy but I'm not convinced the Braves can't make some noise. If any of those young pitchers get untracked to go along with Teheran, Colon and Dickey that staff might keep them in games and Swanson could really blossom this year. In reality they're likely a year away but baseball is a weird sport and someone almost always surprises. The Mets basically stayed status quo despite the elation over Cesepedes resigning but they like to find late FA bargains and there are going to be some.

Still it probably comes down to the Cubs, Dodgers and Nats again but each has holes. The Cubs need another pitcher who can start games to both push Montgomery and be depth in case of injury. Starting rotations rarely go two years without major injury much less three. The Dodgers look impressive with the resigning of Jansen and Turner but 2B is still an issue and I'm not sure how good the rotation is for a regular season or how many innings Rich Hill will give them. The Nats look to have a solid rotation given health but who's closing out games? Catching is also massive hood. I also don't buy Adam Eaton in CF as his metrics there are not great. At this point I'll probably pick the Cubs in the NL but the Dodgers should be very close and I wouldn't overlook the Mets or Giants. The Nats have underachiever written all over them.

Oh and I wouldn't sleep on the Rockies either. I'm not sure they're a threat in the West but if either the Dodgers or Giants fall prey to injuries you never know.

 

[TL1961]

As far as FA, Encarnacion is out there, and Cards fans want him!

 

[beckdawg]

With the recent re-signings the dodgers move on top in fangraphs projected war at 53.1. Cubs are at 51.7. They have a slight edge(0.4 fWAR) in he bullpen which think might be wrong. I think I'd take he cubs current BP. The big edge is the 3.8 fWAR difference in rotation that mostly comes down to Kershaw. Cubs have a 2.8 fWAR edge on offense which doesn't quite feel enough. Projections are fairly conservative on Contreras and Schwarber.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

As far as FA, Encarnacion is out there, and Cards fans want him!

And they should. They would have a shot at dethroning the Cubs in the division with him.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

And they should. They would have a shot at dethroning the Cubs in the division with him.

I don't want anything to do with EE in our division, let alone the Cards.


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[Shawon0Meter]

The Wade Davis deal seems to have been the best thing the Cubs could've done. Chapman and Jansen got their big deals in exactly the places they wanted to be. Jansen even turned down more money from the Nationals to stay in LA. Cubs would've been looking at 5/90 probably to get one of those guys.

 

[CSF77]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/211008332/cubs-kyle-schwarber-appears-at-hopekids-event/

 

[CSF77]

And they should. They would have a shot at dethroning the Cubs in the division with him.

Line up would be nasty:

Fowler
Molina
Carpenter
EE
Piscotty
Grichuk
Diaz
Wong

Rotation is really not disturbing with Wainwright So-So. 4.62 ERA in that park is not TOR anymore.

So sure they will generate runs with or with out him but I see their glaring weakness being their staff.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Line up would be nasty:

Fowler
Molina
Carpenter
EE
Piscotty
Grichuk
Diaz
Wong

Rotation is really not disturbing with Wainwright So-So. 4.62 ERA in that park is not TOR anymore.

So sure they will generate runs with or with out him but I see their glaring weakness being their staff.

They have Lance Lynn back though and Reyes is going to their #1 sooner rather than later. For this year though I tend to agree. They're a TOR short.

 

[CSF77]

They have Lance Lynn back though and Reyes is going to their #1 sooner rather than later. For this year though I tend to agree. They're a TOR short.

We have seen that a team needs 3 TOR in a series now with a 4th guy to pitch 1 game. Cleve went with 3 and they were gassed the 2nd time.

Add to it the deepest pens weigh more than run generation.

I believe a run generation team plays more in the regular season where the talent is more watered down. In the play offs there are no bad teams. And even then a good enough team will not use their worst pitchers in high pressure competition.

To be frank here I've been having a feeling the Dodgers will win it this year. That was before they spent recently. They have 2 legit TOR with Shaw and Hill. Urias should be finding his potential. They have a innings absorber in Maeda. Who pitched decently against the Cubs.

Over all I feel the Dodgers are a team that can win in a series with Cubs. They came pretty close as it is and if it went to game 7 Hill stymied them already.

The Cards have too many holes in their rotation. Their pen lacks a high leverage closer. Don't have a high leverage arm like Edwards early inning. Sure they can add more runs but that plays up more vs 2nd rate pitching.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Rich hill will come back down to earth next year

 

[CSF77]

Nothing says he will. He never was a primary curve ball guy. He was a fastball guy with a nice hammer. Now he is a primary hammer pitcher that changes speeds with it. his 4 seem at 90 mph explodes after being on a diet of slow benders.

I put him into Hendrick's territory right now. He is maximizing what he has. His shelf life is short but there is nothing that makes me think he will regress. Get a blister I'll believe. Those are common with breaking ball pitchers (Kerry Wood/trght spin slider always gave him blisters)

 

[DanTown]

Assuming the Cubs make a play at Tyson Ross, he fits perfectly in terms of depth and potential. Cubs can bring him along slowly (say June 1st) and then this way, if they make Montgomery the #5, Montgomery doesn't fly by his innings because he hasn't thrown over 100 innings in the majors. Then if Ross is healthy you roll a six man June/July/August. Also works as a way to preserve Lackey. Then make a choice on top four guys for the playoffs and likely move Montgomery to the bullpen for the playoffs.

 

[TL1961]

They have Lance Lynn back though and Reyes is going to their #1 sooner rather than later. For this year though I tend to agree. They're a TOR short.

Reyes will be #1 this year, followed by Martinez, Wainwright, Lynn, Leake. That is if Wacha gives them zero.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

We have seen that a team needs 3 TOR in a series now with a 4th guy to pitch 1 game. Cleve went with 3 and they were gassed the 2nd time.

Add to it the deepest pens weigh more than run generation.

I believe a run generation team plays more in the regular season where the talent is more watered down. In the play offs there are no bad teams. And even then a good enough team will not use their worst pitchers in high pressure competition.

To be frank here I've been having a feeling the Dodgers will win it this year. That was before they spent recently. They have 2 legit TOR with Shaw and Hill. Urias should be finding his potential. They have a innings absorber in Maeda. Who pitched decently against the Cubs.

Over all I feel the Dodgers are a team that can win in a series with Cubs. They came pretty close as it is and if it went to game 7 Hill stymied them already.

The Cards have too many holes in their rotation. Their pen lacks a high leverage closer. Don't have a high leverage arm like Edwards early inning. Sure they can add more runs but that plays up more vs 2nd rate pitching.

I agree that LA has a real shot at beating the Cubs in the playoffs. Frankly I think it's awfully tough to get to back to back WS much less win them so I won't be picking the Cubs this year. My issue with LA is a regular season one, particularly with Rich Hill. The blisters were not a one time occurrence with him as he has said the doctors told him he was prone to them. I don't see him pitching more than 120 innings or so which means reliance on Maeda and Urias after Kershaw which isn't necessarily a bad thing but is something to watch. In a playoff series Hill is a #2 without question but that division is going to be tough with the Giants as a legitimate threat and the Rockies as a pesky one. Arizona won't be the pushover they were in 2016 either even if they certainly are not contenders. I'll most likely pick them to win the pennant but ther is no NL team as good as the 2016 Cubs in this mix, including Chicago and LA.

 

[brett05]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/211008332/cubs-kyle-schwarber-appears-at-hopekids-event/

Adding Kyle to my Bryzzo love.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Adding Kyle to my Bryzzo love.

Such class. I've posted before that I don't really root for or become attached to individual players but this kid hooked me almost from minute one. There's something about him that's just genuine and honest. Oh and he can hit a little...

 

[brett05]

yep, good guys like these three helps break down a hatred wall I have for the club.

 

[CSF77]

I agree that LA has a real shot at beating the Cubs in the playoffs. Frankly I think it's awfully tough to get to back to back WS much less win them so I won't be picking the Cubs this year. My issue with LA is a regular season one, particularly with Rich Hill. The blisters were not a one time occurrence with him as he has said the doctors told him he was prone to them. I don't see him pitching more than 120 innings or so which means reliance on Maeda and Urias after Kershaw which isn't necessarily a bad thing but is something to watch. In a playoff series Hill is a #2 without question but that division is going to be tough with the Giants as a legitimate threat and the Rockies as a pesky one. Arizona won't be the pushover they were in 2016 either even if they certainly are not contenders. I'll most likely pick them to win the pennant but ther is no NL team as good as the 2016 Cubs in this mix, including Chicago and LA.

More about timing with Hill's usage. 120 inning is a fair assessment. But you have to realize they have McCarthy and Kazmir on the wings. This is a team that is capable of absorbing a injury