Offseason discussion/rumors

[CSF77]

I personally like Schwarbs at 2, Bryant at 3, and Rizzo at 4. I don't like Contreras at 5 until he improves his approach at the plate. Wouldn't mind seeing Zob at 5. Ideally, Heyward gets back on track and can serve as a leadoff guy. He does have a good eye.

Contreras went .282/.357/.488
Zobrist: .272/.386/.466

Zo has an ideal OBA but what the whole view point of the article was Schwarber was a excellent base runner.

I believe Joe will view the lead off as a solid base runner vs a SB threat. with a solid OBA. Schwarber should sit near .400.

Contreras should hit 7th if the pitcher hits 8th. This is to lower his AB's.

Heyward should be used to split up Russell and Contreras at the bottom of the order.

The real question is if Jay is a better lead off vs Schwarber. The article said Jay is so so in his base running. So all thing taken you want Schwarber over him. Add to it the lead off gets the most AB's. You want your best hitters getting the most AB's. That is Schwarber, Bryant and Rizzo. Not Jay or Heyward.

 

[Omeletpants]

You want your best hitters getting the most AB's. That is Schwarber, Bryant and Rizzo. Not Jay or Heyward.

Is it possible that Heyward get no ABs?

 

[Raskolnikov]

Is this posted in the wrong thread? Or in repsonse to something way back?

What does any of this mean?

Arrieta went through with a grren letter coastal carolina tattoo yesterday for a bet with la stella on college world series.

this is titled "offseason discussion and rumors?" no?

 

[beckdawg]

Interestingly, the cubs are set to pay a luxury tax for last season($2.96 million). My guess is that they can probably drop below that this season but it's a bit scary given the way that increasingly makes FA's expensive. Likely explains some of their more cost effective moves this offseason.

 

[TL1961]

Arrieta went through with a grren letter coastal carolina tattoo yesterday for a bet with la stella on college world series.

this is titled "offseason discussion and rumors?" no?

I wasnt saying it "failed to qualify" for the thread. I was wondering if you were responding to someting elsewhere, as it seemed to be a response, but never referenced what it wss responding to

 

[CSF77]

W/ regards to Contreras, didn't he get off to a very hot start and then started to fade towards the end including the series against the Dodgers and Indians? All I remember is that it appeared he was getting hitting lessons from Baez.

Bottomline is that I trust Zobrist more than I do Contreras which is why I suggested having Z bat higher in the lineup than Contreras.

Scouting reports were in on him. All players go through readjustments.

My reasonings for lower is based off he needs to be a catcher first. Not a hitter first. That needs to be his mindset until he is settled in as a pro

 

[Raskolnikov]

I wasnt saying it "failed to qualify" for the thread. I was wondering if you were responding to someting elsewhere, as it seemed to be a response, but never referenced what it wss responding to

I think its pretty fucking self explanatory that it was referring to Arrieta getting a tattoo?

You have the internet don't you? I suppose you needed a link, to the homepage of just about every sports site in the country. Just because you are ignorant of something doesn't mean you have to give people shit.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Scouting reports were in on him. All players go through readjustments.

My reasonings for lower is based off he needs to be a catcher first. Not a hitter first. That needs to be his mindset until he is settled in as a pro

Yes...I think I agree with him 7th, and putting the catcher in the standard spot in front of pitcher given that the 2B and SS are going to hit 20+ homeruns.

 

[beckdawg]

Following up on my previous comments about cubs having to pay luxury tax... that becomes a problem rather quickly. Brett from bleacher nation did a rough calculation that suggests as of today they are about $8 mil off next year's tax. This is a problem for several reasons. The first is any QO player the cubs lose will return only a post-4th round pick. On top of that, any QO player they sign will cost them $1 mil in IFA bonus pool as well as a draft pick. $8 mil may seem like plenty of cushion but if the cubs acquire anyone at mid season that cuts into that and if they re-sign Davis/Arrieta, the way they are calculated is based on AAV of a players contract. So, that could likely impact that as well.

It's difficult for me to see a reality where they can let either of Arrieta and/or Davis walk for a post-4th round pick. To put into perspective what that is, since the current regime has taken over you're talking about Anthony Prieto, Trey Masek, Justin Steele, Ryan Kellogg and Bailey Clark being 5th round picks. The best of that group is Steele who presently rates as #23 on the cubs top 30. Clark came in at #30.

 

[Raskolnikov]

The #4 round pick will just not be a deterrent in the free agent market for Arrieta, essentially making him a free agent. They can still be a fair bidder and the home advantage team.

They don't need anyone mid-season, and likely have a plan. If I were them I would try to dip below the tax for a year before they have to deal with Baez/Russell/Schwarber/Bryant.

There will come a point of no return where they just have to live with the tax, the 10,000 playoff seats, and an albatross of a roster for a few years. Maybe that all makes Arrieta out of the plans, which I think is a damn fool idea if you want to go the dynasty route.

 

[DanTown]

Following up on my previous comments about cubs having to pay luxury tax... that becomes a problem rather quickly. Brett from bleacher nation did a rough calculation that suggests as of today they are about $8 mil off next year's tax. This is a problem for several reasons. The first is any QO player the cubs lose will return only a post-4th round pick. On top of that, any QO player they sign will cost them $1 mil in IFA bonus pool as well as a draft pick. $8 mil may seem like plenty of cushion but if the cubs acquire anyone at mid season that cuts into that and if they re-sign Davis/Arrieta, the way they are calculated is based on AAV of a players contract. So, that could likely impact that as well.

It's difficult for me to see a reality where they can let either of Arrieta and/or Davis walk for a post-4th round pick. To put into perspective what that is, since the current regime has taken over you're talking about Anthony Prieto, Trey Masek, Justin Steele, Ryan Kellogg and Bailey Clark being 5th round picks. The best of that group is Steele who presently rates as #23 on the cubs top 30. Clark came in at #30.

The cut side of the new CBA is that there is no real money to be spent outside of the 25 man and the QO rules are so minimal anyway that the Cubs can "afford" to pay a pitcher like Arrieta (if he's back around a 4+ fWAR guy) a market deal and not worry about it.

 

[Omeletpants]

Winning next year is the #1 priority. You guys want to have total clarity on the next 5 years. I have faith in Theo's ability to adjust. If winning next year requires Airetta and the loss of what he brings in trade, I'm fine with that

 

[Raskolnikov]

Winning next year is the #1 priority. You guys want to have total clarity on the next 5 years. I have faith in Theo's ability to adjust. If winning next year requires Airetta and the loss of what he brings in trade, I'm fine with that

Thats true. Playing with house money, just try to repeat.

Can't pay everyone $200,000,000 though and eventually they are going to have to flip some guys for the next group of prospects similar to what the Blackhawks try to do, and decide what their core is going to be.

 

[CSF77]

I'll bet th y try to trade Montero. So I kinda expect him to get plenty of playing time to up his trade value. His replacement will be in AAA.

That should free up cash if anything comes up.

Outside of that I wouldn't concern ourselves with the penalites related to going over. If they feel that this year weighs more that the off season then they will do what it takes. Right now they are pretty set up and let payroll walk.

If we have learned anything is they will attach a QO to a player and let him bolt if he is looking at a mega. They will sign mega's on their own terms. Heyward was 26 and GG. Lester was their boy and you figured they would give him his pay day. Russell, Bryant and Schwarber should be taken care of. Rizzo already got paid and with Kyle you have to think that they may think on moving on if Rizzo wants mega cash.

So each situation is unique. You have to think of the other moving parts also.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Who's the backup catcher if they trade Montero? Don't say Schwarber.

Schwarber with Baez as the emergency.

 

[CSF77]

Victor Caratini

Team: Chicago Cubs ETA: 2018 Position: C/1B Age: 23 DOB: 08/17/1993 Bats: S Throws: R Height: 6' 1" Weight: 215 lb. Drafted: 2013, 2nd (65) - ATL
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Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 30 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45
After playing with Carlos Correa at the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Caratini planned on playing college baseball at Southern. A transcript snafu rendered him ineligible as a freshman, so he transferred to Miami Dade JC and hit his way into the second round of the 2013 Draft. A year after selecting him, the Braves shipped him to the Cubs in a deal for Emilio Bonifacio and James Russell.

Caratini played at both third base and catcher for Miami Dade, broke into pro ball at the hot corner and became a full-time catcher in 2014 (though he has gotten some time at first base this year to add to his versatility). He has improved significantly behind the plate and throws and receives well enough to stay there, though he has more work to do. He has a solid arm but must upgrade his accuracy.

A switch-hitter, Caratini focuses on making line-drive contact with an easy stroke rather than turning on pitches and driving the ball. He's strong but lacks loft in his swing, so his power comes in the form of doubles rather than home runs. Like most catchers, he offers little in the way of speed

 

[CSF77]

He should be the starting catcher in Iowa this year. He is a ideal back up. SH can cover 1B if needed.

 

[CSF77]

Sounds good to me CSF. But I don't want them to trade Montero for a bag of balls. I want them to put together a meaningful trade for something of significance. Don't trade just to trade.

I would trade to move his contract and get a B rated minor league player. It is about moving the contract.

 

[SilenceS]

Who's the backup catcher if they trade Montero? Don't say Schwarber.

@ CSF, I doubt very much Cubs re-sign Bryant. I love the guy but he's going to ask for a 10 year deal worth more than $300 million. Cubs could trade him a couple years before and probably get the biggest prospect haul in MLB history to rebuild their farm.

Sounds good to me CSF. But I don't want them to trade Montero for a bag of balls. I want them to put together a meaningful trade for something of significance. Don't trade just to trade.

Schwarber will catch again. I dont know why this is being fought by fans when FO have said this. Also, the Cubs arent trading Bryant. Its like saying you would trade Trout.

 

[SilenceS]

1) I didn't say they would trade Bryant today. They've got what, 5 more years of control right? Let him play 3 more seasons. And then see what things look like? By the time 2021 comes around, he might be asking for a 10 year, $400 million dollar deal. I don't believe in spending that kind of money on one player. They'd be better trading him and getting a king's ransom.

2) Schwarber will catch again but he's not going to be the backup catcher in 2017.

Quantity doesnt equal quality.