Offseason discussion/rumors

[beckdawg]

Sale is another league than Jake. For one, he has 3 years of control left at a very affordable price. Pretty unheard of for someone of his caliber. That's why the return was so insane.

And I literally showed you an example of Price who's basically the same type of pitcher you would expect Arrieta to be with 1 year of control returning a similar package to what I'm saying he's worth. Sorry man but if you think Arrieta is only worth 2 middle tier prospects you're out of your mind. I brought up Sale because in terms of value the past 3 years Arrieta had similar fWAR. Obviously he has less control and he's older but the point remains that sale brought the #1 prospect and a top 40 prospect plus 2 others. If he's worth that, Arriea is worth 80% of that.

I agree with you that if they have a deal lined up for Archer, then trading Jake makes a ton of sense. However, Smyly is not Archer. He's a lot fucking worse than Archer is. So if you're trading Jake in the hopes of getting Smyly, that's a big fucking pass. If it's Archer or someone of similar capability, then that's fine.

You're missing my point with Smyly. He doesn't need to be Arrieta. He needs to essentially be Lackey. Is it really that difficult to buy an AL pitcher with a career 3.74/3.82 ERA/FIP being 3.50-ish ERA NL pitcher especially behind the cubs defense? If you look at this in terms of fWAR, Arrieta produced 3.8 fWAR to Lackey's 3.1. So, if you humor the argument that Smyly can be as productive as Lackey what you're talking about is the difference between a 4-ish win Arrieta and a 3-ish win Smyly. In the regular season that's almost nothing. But as I said, my point wasn't that you make those 2 deals and stop. My point was if you can't re-sign Arrieta and you make this move you are on better footing to improve with a 3rd trade be that now or at the trade deadline. And the difference here is assuming Smyly pitches that way, when Lackey leaves after 2017 you already have Smyly there as an in house replacement for him plus presumably you've either dealt for someone to replace Arrieta long term or you still have the pieces to do so.

And don't get super caught up on Smyly. He's an interesting name to me but he's honestly just a place holder for someone who can produce similar value to Lackey. For example, I could see the cubs going after someone like Patrick Corbin instead coming in off a down year. I wouldn't touch Shelby Miller personally but he's another option. As I mentioned Gray is an option. There's 4-5 others who I think realistically can produce a similar season to what you expect out of Lackey. But the short term point if you trade Arrieta is to find decent depth to replace him immediately. I think the cubs would make the playoffs with Lester Hendricks essentially Lackey x2 and Montgomery. So, the medium term goal is replacing Arrieta's performance for the playoffs. Ideally yes you'd do that with someone like Archer now but that's not really how trades work. You have to be ready to make the moves when the guys are actually available. Maybe that's at the trade deadline instead.

 

[brett05]

If the market dictates it and he stays his trajectory, yes. You are talking about a pure stud with little flaws in his game. The Cubs TV contract is up in 2019 and they are probably going to get the largest contract in history since they won the series.

If I still gambled, I'd clean you out on that prediction. The Contracts that the Dodgers got are done. That ain't happening for anyone else.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/...ought-tyson-ross-to-wrigley-field-for-a-tour/

Interesting...

 

[brett05]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/...ought-tyson-ross-to-wrigley-field-for-a-tour/

Interesting...

If I were Ross, I'd take the rehab with the Cubs.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/...ought-tyson-ross-to-wrigley-field-for-a-tour/

Interesting...

There is a money point where signing Ross is a no brainer depending on his medicals. I've heard a lot of talk that if he were even close to getting healthy the Padres would have kept him but I don't buy that. First there's a team that's shedding as much salary as they can and he was going to make about $11 million in 2017 which will be his walk year barring an extension. They had no intention of signing him and the risk involved in keeping him and trying to flip him at the deadline if he turned it around was more than made sense to them. He's going to get 1 year offers with incentives but the Cubs are World Champs and are going to be one of the stronger teams to make an offer and if he bets on himself 2 good years will get him more in FA than 1 and the Cubs could have an advantage in beefing up that second year. Health and structure of the deal are key but I wouldn't at all surprised to see Ross in a Cubs uniform.

 

[SilenceS]

If I still gambled, I'd clean you out on that prediction. The Contracts that the Dodgers got are done. That ain't happening for anyone else.

Technically, this could be the case but its because the Dodgers and their low percentage of viewers they got could cause the issue. Its a new age and streaming has taken over, but the Cubs are going to come out fine and they still are going to get a huge sum of money from it.

 

[brett05]

Technically, this could be the case but its because the Dodgers and their low percentage of viewers they got could cause the issue. Its a new age and streaming has taken over, but the Cubs are going to come out fine and they still are going to get a huge sum of money from it.

Amen

 

[anotheridiot]

Jake should be getting around 17 million this arbitration. He was both un hittable and un catchable for parts of last season. So much movement the ball would be out of the zone by the time it got to the plate. I dont think the cubs are going to want any part of a 10/300 Bore-ass is going to be looking for, so if you get a deal, you take it since its the last year you will have him. Going in with Lester, Hendricks, Lackey, Monty and a couple of #5 projects should be good to start the year. But just like the Royals demanded ML ready player, I think the cubs would demand that pitcher as well.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jake should be getting around 17 million this arbitration. He was both un hittable and un catchable for parts of last season. So much movement the ball would be out of the zone by the time it got to the plate. I dont think the cubs are going to want any part of a 10/300 Bore-ass is going to be looking for, so if you get a deal, you take it since its the last year you will have him. Going in with Lester, Hendricks, Lackey, Monty and a couple of #5 projects should be good to start the year. But just like the Royals demanded ML ready player, I think the cubs would demand that pitcher as well.

I swear I will never understand fans vilification of Scott Boras. He offers his clients a path to generational wealth and very often follows through if the players keep their end of the bargain with their play. If I had a son that was a top draft prospect I would advise him strongly to look to Boras for representation.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I swear I will never understand fans vilification of Scott Boras. He offers his clients a path to generational wealth and very often follows through if the players keep their end of the bargain with their play. If I had a son that was a top draft prospect I would advise him strongly to look to Boras for representation.

That's great, if you're a client. If you're the fans, he's generally sent his players to other teams and is partially a cause of much higher ticket prices.

 

[brett05]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Boras

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That's great, if you're a client. If you're the fans, he's generally sent his players to other teams and is partially a cause of much higher ticket prices.

I get the team aspect, no one wants to see their guys leave for another team, but all Boras is doing is relying on market forces to make his clients the most money they can get. They can certainly go against him, Brett and I have argued over the extent of that over the years but some definitely do, but if maximum dollars is their goal he achieves that for his client more often than not. I have a hard time faulting a guy who works his butt off to achieve and then expects to get paid top dollar for it. Also I don't agree that Boras, or those like him, have much to do with raising ticket prices. Tickets are market commodities, they are subject to the laws of supply and demand and are sold for what the market can bear. Often their priced lower than the what the market for them should be which is why most large market teams have a financial stake in their own secondary markets. They can keep primary market tickets lower, almost as a panacea to fans, while still making money on the higher ticket prices in the secondary market. The bottom line is that tickets will be eventually be sold for what the market can bear. If the money wasn't there for big salaries owners wouldn't pay them, or in the cases where they do they're not owners for very long (Frank McCourt I'm looking at you). Blaming agents, or even blaming players who want to maximize their earnings, just doesn't make a lot of sense for me

 

[Parade_Rain]

I get the team aspect, no one wants to see their guys leave for another team, but all Boras is doing is relying on market forces to make his clients the most money they can get. They can certainly go against him, Brett and I have argued over the extent of that over the years but some definitely do, but if maximum dollars is their goal he achieves that for his client more often than not. I have a hard time faulting a guy who works his butt off to achieve and then expects to get paid top dollar for it. Also I don't agree that Boras, or those like him, have much to do with raising ticket prices. Tickets are market commodities, they are subject to the laws of supply and demand and are sold for what the market can bear. Often their priced lower than the what the market for them should be which is why most large market teams have a financial stake in their own secondary markets. They can keep primary market tickets lower, almost as a panacea to fans, while still making money on the higher ticket prices in the secondary market. The bottom line is that tickets will be eventually be sold for what the market can bear. If the money wasn't there for big salaries owners wouldn't pay them, or in the cases where they do they're not owners for very long (Frank McCourt I'm looking at you). Blaming agents, or even blaming players who want to maximize their earnings, just doesn't make a lot of sense for me

"Cause" is not "blame". Thank you.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

"Cause" is not "blame". Thank you.

My apologies. Others do blame. Are players wanting more money a cause for higher operating expenses that lead to high ticket prices? Sure, I just believe the money will go somewhere and I prefer it go to the players that work hard for it. That's all.

 

[DanTown]

That's great, if you're a client. If you're the fans, he's generally sent his players to other teams and is partially a cause of much higher ticket prices.

Player salaries on an individual level have very little if any bearing on the price of baseball tickets. Those two markets (the price of baseball tickets and player's wages) are mostly independent of each other.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/12/20/early-video-of-jason-heywards-apparent-swing-changes/

As i've said before I'm not a mechanics guy so someone else can probably provide more insight than me but that does look smoother than his previous swing.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/12/20/early-video-of-jason-heywards-apparent-swing-changes/

As i've said before I'm not a mechanics guy so someone else can probably provide more insight than me but that does look smoother than his previous swing.

From what I see Brett @ Bleacher Nation hits all the fine points:

Heyward’s hands are in tighter, which leaves the bat more vertical and his elbow bent and closer to his body; Heyward’s lead shoulder is slightly more open, which, together with the hand position helps create a quicker path to the ball; Heyward’s lower half appears to be more open in his right leg, and slightly rotated forward in his left leg, yielding an overall more open approach. It would seem that staying open a little longer could allow Heyward to better get his hands in on pitches on the inner third.

You also undoubtedly noticed the lower, almost Rizzo-like hand position before Heyward starts his swing. That ever-evolving aspect of Rizzo’s swing was designed to make him quicker to the ball, for what it’s worth.

This is not dissimilar to what they were working on last year which I wish I could find video of. One of the things the piece points out though is the importance of muscle memory in rebuilding a swing. I have said before and I maintain that Heyward's wrist injury, coming at a point where he was just starting to face real pitching, interrupted that process and when he tried to go back to his old, flawed swing it became something worse that either. I have never had much doubt that Heyward will bounce back. Guys with that kind of talent, character and work ethic don't fall of the map at 26 and when you look at his numbers 2016 was a clear outlier. Sometimes causes for outlier years are fairly complex and not easy to understand.

 

[beckdawg]

Philly traded for Clay Buchholz. Cost was Josh Tobias who's not even in mlb.com's top 30 philly prospects. Seems like a good buy low case for them. If Buchholz turns around they can easily deal him at the deadline.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Philly traded for Clay Buchholz. Cost was Josh Tobias who's not even in mlb.com's top 30 philly prospects. Seems like a good buy low case for them. If Buchholz turns around they can easily deal him at the deadline.

I question this from the Red Sox side, it was a salary dump but maybe a short sighted one. Puts a lot of eggs in Drew Pomeranz' basket.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wouldn't mind Buccholz in our rotation if we got him cheap.

Well, if he's any good for Philly he'll be right there for ya at the deadline. He's making $13.5 mil this year and is a FA for 2018. As someone who watches a lot of Boston baseball I've seen enough of him that I don't want him on the Cubs but as Red Sox fan second I think it was a shortsighted move in trading him and eliminating some much needed pitching depth.