Offseason discussion/rumors

Parade_Rain · Dec 23, 2016

Diehardfan said:
You obviously know more about this stuff than I ever would. A question...

While what you say makes sense, his swing last year wasn't a whole lot different than it was in 2015 when he hit .290 for St. Louis. Do you think he needs to be making such big changes at this point of his career?

People who want to be the best are willing to make big changes. Big changes often make a person go backward at first. Of course you take the 2015 Heyward. With the swing he had last season though, I'd work hard on some mechanical things, as even a little bit of improvement there can build his confidence. As the famous Williams' quote goes, "Hitting is 50% above the shoulders."

beckdawg · Dec 23, 2016

I sorta feel bad for David Rollins right now. He got claimed by the cubs.... again. He was DFA'd in Nov. by the M's. The cubs claimed him then was waived by the cubs trying to pass him through waivers. He got claimed by the rangers and waived and then claimed by philly and waived and then claimed by texas and waived and now back to the cubs.

CSF77 · Dec 23, 2016

Pitcher Seth Frankoff: The Cubs project the right-hander to start for Triple-A Iowa in 2017. He made eight starts for Carolina in Venezuela, and after a rough opener Oct. 7 when he served up five earned runs on four hits and one walk over one-third of an inning, he settled down. Frankoff had a solid four-game stretch from Oct. 18-Nov. 4 in which he did not give up an earned run and scattered seven hits and walked six over 22 innings. He signed a Minor League deal with the Cubs.

chibears55 · Dec 24, 2016

November 18, 2016: Selected off waivers by the*Chicago Cubs*from the*Seattle Mariners.

November 22, 2016: Selected off waivers by the*Texas Rangers*from the*Chicago Cubs.

December 2, 2016: Selected off waivers by the*Philadelphia Phillies*from the*Texas Rangers.

December 21, 2016: Selected off waivers by the*Texas Rangers*from the*Philadelphia Phillies.

December 23, 2016: Selected off waivers by the*Chicago Cubs*from the*Texas Rangers.

David Rollins LH pitcher

Guy been waived 5 times and claimed 5 times in a month
Twice each by Cubs and Rangers

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beckdawg · Dec 24, 2016

The Cubs have signed righty reliever Fernando Rodriguez, presumably to a minor league deal, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports. Rodriguez’s agency, J.M.G. Baseball, tweeted last week that their client had agreed to terms with an NL club. The Cubs have also added second baseman Jemile Weeks, catcher Ali Solis, lefty Daniel Moskos and shortstop Elliot Soto, also presumably on minor league deals.

CSF77 · Dec 24, 2016

Vill signed with the Pads. Good opportunity for him over there.

CSF77 · Dec 24, 2016

beckdawg said:
The Cubs have signed righty reliever Fernando Rodriguez, presumably to a minor league deal, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports. Rodriguez’s agency, J.M.G. Baseball, tweeted last week that their client had agreed to terms with an NL club. The Cubs have also added second baseman Jemile Weeks, catcher Ali Solis, lefty Daniel Moskos and shortstop Elliot Soto, also presumably on minor league deals.

The Cubs have signed righty reliever Fernando Rodriguez, presumably to a minor league deal, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports. Rodriguez’s agency, J.M.G. Baseball, tweeted last week that their client had agreed to terms with an NL club. The Cubs have also added second baseman Jemile Weeks, catcher Ali Solis, lefty Daniel Moskos and shortstop Elliot Soto, also presumably on minor league deals.

The 32-year-old Rodriguez has pitched for the A’s for the last three seasons, most recently posting a 4.20 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 40 2/3 innings in 2016. The Athletics outrighted him in October, likely thinking ahead to the tender deadline — Rodriguez has five-plus years of service time and would have been eligible for arbitration. Rodriguez had shoulder surgery in September, although typical recovery time would have allowed him to resume throwing by around now.

The 29-year-old Weeks collected 57 plate appearances with the Padres in 2016 and hit sparingly, missing much of the season to a hamstring strain. The former first-round pick is a career .271/.372/.373 hitter at the Triple-A level.

Solis is a 29-year-old, glove-first journeyman who’s made brief big-league appearances with the Padres and Rays. He played last season in the Red Sox system.

Moskos, now 30, is best known for being the fourth overall pick in the 2007 draft. He pitched last season for the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate in El Paso, posting a 3.39 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 61 innings of relief.

The 27-year-old Soto came up in the Cubs system but spent last season with the Marlins’ Triple-A club in New Orleans, batting .241/.358/.297 and splitting his time between second, shortstop and third.

TC in Mississippi · Dec 27, 2016

Posted this in the wrong thread before. Mea culpa.

So the Cardinals are supposedly in on Brian Dozier which, if last year wasn't an outlier, could make them quite a bit better but I don't buy it. Supposedly the Twins are asking for Reyes which would make zero sense for St. Louis. Now I've also heard Kolten Wong and Aledmys Diaz for Dozier but I'm not sure that makes much more sense and I'm not sure either are the kind of player Minnesota is looking for. My gut tells me that this is more of the Twins trying to drive the price up on the Dodgers but who knows?

TC in Mississippi · Dec 27, 2016

I thought this was fascinating

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-2016-chicago-cubs-and-their-most-similar-team/

The fact that the 103 win 2016 Cubs were the most statistically similar to the 90 win 2012 Rays just goes to show what a strange game baseball is.

JP Hochbaum · Dec 28, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
I thought this was fascinating

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-2016-chicago-cubs-and-their-most-similar-team/

The fact that the 103 win 2016 Cubs were the most statistically similar to the 90 win 2012 Rays just goes to show what a strange game baseball is.

Considering they are indifferent leagues did the stat correct for that? Because the hitting can't really be that comparable if it didn't.

CSF77 · Dec 28, 2016

Fact that team won 90 in that div says a lot

czman · Dec 28, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
I thought this was fascinating

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-2016-chicago-cubs-and-their-most-similar-team/

The fact that the 103 win 2016 Cubs were the most statistically similar to the 90 win 2012 Rays just goes to show what a strange game baseball is.

This is terrible. The run differential of these teams is not even close. The BABIP and BABIP allowed are not even close.

The Rays were league average in run scoring in the AL, and the Cubs were well above average in the NL. That alone is huge.

The Cubs had almost 3x the WAR as the Rays. That is insane.

The fact this guy tried to normalize offensive numbers for an AL team and NL team but nothing for the fact one has a DH is just silly.

Garbage in garbage out.

TC in Mississippi · Dec 29, 2016

MLB Network Radio has been reporting in its updates for 2 days that the Cubs and Arrieta are working on a contract extension. Now I'm sure their working on a contract for 2017 to avoid arbitration but an extension? Seems off to me and I can't find another source reporting it. Anyone else hear anything about this?

chibears55 · Dec 29, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
MLB Network Radio has been reporting in its updates for 2 days that the Cubs and Arrieta are working on a contract extension. Now I'm sure their working on a contract for 2017 to avoid arbitration but an extension? Seems off to me and I can't find another source reporting it. Anyone else hear anything about this?

Espn had a brief segment on it with extension mentioned. .
Heard it on espn radio too..

I can see them trying to extend him with Lester and Hendricks being the only ones under team control pass 2017, but it probably won't get done cause im sure Arrieta looking for 6 to 7 yrs guarentee and cubs probably wont go pass 5.
But
If their able to lock him down, still leaves 2 open spots for younger arms via trade or FA.

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CSF77 · Dec 29, 2016

Only way he is getting 7 years is if the Cubs have buy outs after the 5

anotheridiot · Dec 30, 2016

TC in Mississippi said:
MLB Network Radio has been reporting in its updates for 2 days that the Cubs and Arrieta are working on a contract extension. Now I'm sure their working on a contract for 2017 to avoid arbitration but an extension? Seems off to me and I can't find another source reporting it. Anyone else hear anything about this?

Bore-ass said they were talking extension since before the winter meetings I thought it was always the case that Jake only wants the talks in the off season and now its his final year of arbitration, it makes sense for Jake to want his long term deal and generations of guaranteed money for his family.

You look at his numbers and his loss of control in a few different ways. Most of us did not see location trouble like some experts did, we just saw mad movement that was out of control. He was still there helping the cub starting pitching to destroy the team ERA competition, 2.956 Max Scherzer, 2.958 Cubs starting pitchers as a TEAM, and its pretty clear the cubs would want this done to avoid the competition during next off season.

chibears55 · Dec 30, 2016

Here is my opinion on why Arrieta should consider taking a Cubs offer now and why teams might shy away from offering him a 20+ mil deal for 6 to 7 yrs.

First in 2018 , he will be 32 YO.. I think many teams will be hesitant to want to tie themselves up with years and pay big money to a guy at that age.. big risk in owing a SP 20+ mil at age 36 37 38 39.

The other thing I think will make teams hesitate in making him a big offer in yrs and money. .

His last 15 regular season starts replicated more of his Orioles days then his super human performances the previous season and half.

So, for him he needs to decide if he wants to risk his contract year on wheather or not he will be closer to what he was the first half of 16 or ri s k he'll be the way he finished the year.

Obviously for teams, if he shows any signs of being just a regular mid rotation starter, then they'll balk at paying him big money and years especially when you consider his age into it.

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TC in Mississippi · Dec 30, 2016

chibears55 said:
Here is my opinion on why Arrieta should consider taking a Cubs offer now and why teams might shy away from offering him a 20+ mil deal for 6 to 7 yrs.

First in 2018 , he will be 32 YO.. I think many teams will be hesitant to want to tie themselves up with years and pay big money to a guy at that age.. big risk in owing a SP 20+ mil at age 36 37 38 39.

The other thing I think will make teams hesitate in making him a big offer in yrs and money. .

His last 15 regular season starts replicated more of his Orioles days then his super human performances the previous season and half.

So, for him he needs to decide if he wants to risk his contract year on wheather or not he will be closer to what he was the first half of 16 or ri s k he'll be the way he finished the year.

Obviously for teams, if he shows any signs of being just a regular mid rotation starter, then they'll balk at paying him big money and years especially when you consider his age into it.

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I don't disagree with any of that but I guess my issue is if you're the Cubs what would you offer? To me 5/$180 which might get it done is too much, so do you go 5/$150? I'm still wary there to be honest but Boras got Ian friggin' Kennedy 5/$70 and he profiles as a #5 starter, you'd have to figure Boras, who negotiated that deal, would be looking for more than double at the very least. Johnny Cueto is an interesting comp and he got 6/$130 with an opt out. Cueto was 2 years younger when he signed that deal but that really only pertains to the years. If Jake has a great season say 200 innings, an ERA and/or FIP in the 2-3 range and comparable K/9 and BB/9 as his career numbers he's going to get $27-$30 mil AAV, only the years are in question. So back to what he would take right now to put the risk on the Cubs instead of himself? A buyout of the last year of arb at $20 mil and then 5/$150? The other thing is who will be out there besides Arrieta. If Cueto has a above average to great year he will opt out and he'll be getting similar offers, maybe a touch less. Yu Darvish maybe just under that if he's healthy and productive for an entire season. It's really difficult decision for both the Cubs and Arrieta.