Offseason discussion/rumors

[CSF77]

I don't disagree with any of that but I guess my issue is if you're the Cubs what would you offer? To me 5/$180 which might get it done is too much, so do you go 5/$150? I'm still wary there to be honest but Boras got Ian friggin' Kennedy 5/$70 and he profiles as a #5 starter, you'd have to figure Boras, who negotiated that deal, would be looking for more than double at the very least. Johnny Cueto is an interesting comp and he got 6/$130 with an opt out. Cueto was 2 years younger when he signed that deal but that really only pertains to the years. If Jake has a great season say 200 innings, an ERA and/or FIP in the 2-3 range and comparable K/9 and BB/9 as his career numbers he's going to get $27-$30 mil AAV, only the years are in question. So back to what he would take right now to put the risk on the Cubs instead of himself? A buyout of the last year of arb at $20 mil and then 5/$150? The other thing is who will be out there besides Arrieta. If Cueto has a above average to great year he will opt out and he'll be getting similar offers, maybe a touch less. Yu Darvish maybe just under that if he's healthy and productive for an entire season. It's really difficult decision for both the Cubs and Arrieta.

25 mil AAV is a fair Comp for him. It is a shade under Lester's AAV. But Lester came in younger and more accomplished.

 

[anotheridiot]

25 mil AAV is a fair Comp for him. It is a shade under Lester's AAV. But Lester came in younger and more accomplished.

I thought Boreass had his sights on the Kershaw numbers and will need to see at least one 30 in the contract.

 

[chibears55]

I don't disagree with any of that but I guess my issue is if you're the Cubs what would you offer? To me 5/$180 which might get it done is too much, so do you go 5/$150? I'm still wary there to be honest but Boras got Ian friggin' Kennedy 5/$70 and he profiles as a #5 starter, you'd have to figure Boras, who negotiated that deal, would be looking for more than double at the very least. Johnny Cueto is an interesting comp and he got 6/$130 with an opt out. Cueto was 2 years younger when he signed that deal but that really only pertains to the years. If Jake has a great season say 200 innings, an ERA and/or FIP in the 2-3 range and comparable K/9 and BB/9 as his career numbers he's going to get $27-$30 mil AAV, only the years are in question. So back to what he would take right now to put the risk on the Cubs instead of himself? A buyout of the last year of arb at $20 mil and then 5/$150? The other thing is who will be out there besides Arrieta. If Cueto has a above average to great year he will opt out and he'll be getting similar offers, maybe a touch less. Yu Darvish maybe just under that if he's healthy and productive for an entire season. It's really difficult decision for both the Cubs and Arrieta.

If I were Hoyer/Epstein, I'd go 5/125 with a 6th yr mutual option. Take it or leave it offer.
But I'd break it down to
30
30
25
20
20
This way they don't tie themselves down to big money later when other Arbs and FA kick in with their younger players..
Plus he would be easier to trade if they need to go that route with him.

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[CSF77]

I thought Boreass had his sights on the Kershaw numbers and will need to see at least one 30 in the contract.

After last year he will not sniff 30 mil. Boras got Strasberg a 25 mil AAV and he is younger.

I believe the whole 30 mil plus is bull. Grenkie got it but that got a GM fired. Kershaw was much younger when he got it.

I do not see a market for a 32 yo starter that may or may not be an ace getting 30 mil. Teams have to now deal with a soft cap that hampers their their flexibility. Even the Red Sox had to trade out to get under it. And they are a top 3 market.

So I don't see a market forming for Jake where teams will be jumping up and down ready to toss this mythical pay day his way.

 

[CSF77]

If I were Hoyer/Epstein, I'd go 5/125 with a 6th yr mutual option. Take it or leave it offer.
But I'd break it down to
30
30
25
20
20
This way they don't tie themselves down to big money later when other Arbs and FA kick in with their younger players..
Plus he would be easier to trade if they need to go that route with him.

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That is a 25 AAV but I just don't see them touching 30 mil in a year.

Jon is signed til 2020 with a 2021 option. That is the window that I believe they will aim for. It keeps them together for the duration and makes sense with Jake's age. 4 with a 5th option.

Then the question becomes if Jake is better or equal to Jon in their view point. If they give Jake more after Jon had the stronger season then what does that say to Jon? We under paid you?

 

[CSF77]

Last 2 years:

Jake: 426 IP 9 SO/9 2.62 BB/9
Jon: 407 IP 8.93 SO/9 2.19 BB/9

They are pretty much at the same level over their span together. I believe they should make the same AVV. Jon got a 30 mil up front in a bonus.

"6 years/$155M (2015-20), plus 2021 option
signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/14
$30M signing bonus ($15M due 4/15/15, $2.5M due 12/31/18, $2.5M due 12/31/19, $10M due 9/15/20)
15:$15M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M, 18:$22.5M, 19:$22.5M, 20:$15M, 21:$25M mutual option ($10M buyout)
2021 option guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 IP in 2019-20)
full no-trade protection
perks: suite on road, private air travel up to 25 hours per year"

But a contract structured along those lines. 30 mil bonus. 15 paid up front with the remaining 15 mil in payments each year. Then 2017: 15 mil, 2018 20 mil, 2019 22.5 mil 2020 22.5 mil with a 25 mil 10 mil buyout in 2021. Rest the same as Jon got.

That is what I'm predicting Theo offers him.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm bored with this offseason. Some shit needs to actually happen. Feels like the white sox and their corresponding trade partners are the only ones doing anything this offseason. I know there's not a lot in FA but figured there'd be at least several more trades.

 

[CSF77]

I'm bored with this offseason. Some shit needs to actually happen. Feels like the white sox and their corresponding trade partners are the only ones doing anything this offseason. I know there's not a lot in FA but figured there'd be at least several more trades.

It was just a bad season for F/A. Add to it most teams are not selling the farm like the Sox did. Twins with Dozer is hot button.

In general it sucked. Too many RH power bats at the same time which is messing that market up. Then not enough TOR arms which is killing that market. Sox decided to strike on that market and can again. Rest of the teams are sitting still.

I was feeling this off season would be meh.

 

[chibears55]

I'm bored with this offseason. Some shit needs to actually happen. Feels like the white sox and their corresponding trade partners are the only ones doing anything this offseason. I know there's not a lot in FA but figured there'd be at least several more trades.

I said a couple years ago when people were complaining about what the Cubs were doing as far as stacking up on future prospects..

Teams were locking in their good young players, so when you look ahead to future FAs, were not going to see many good ones available.especially those under 30.

Trades... Unfortunately for Cubs it the Sox selling young pitching Sale and maybe Quintana, otherwise I'm sure the Cubs would of had a great chance of landing him.
Nobody else selling their young pitching now, which is mainly because they see there nothing available via future FA and their holding onto their own.

So,seeing where the Cubs are at with position players and having control of most of them thru 2020,2021.. You gotta feel good about that.
Gotta hope at deadline, maybe a team or two will look to cash in on a hot young pitcher for young hitters..

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[CSF77]

I said a couple years ago when people were complaining about what the Cubs were doing as far as stacking up on future prospects..

Teams were locking in their good young players, so when you look ahead to future FAs, were not going to see many good ones available.especially those under 30.

Trades... Unfortunately for Cubs it the Sox selling young pitching Sale and maybe Quintana, otherwise I'm sure the Cubs would of had a great chance of landing him.
Nobody else selling their young pitching now, which is mainly because they see there nothing available via future FA and their holding onto their own.

So,seeing where the Cubs are at with position players and having control of most of them thru 2020,2021.. You gotta feel good about that.
Gotta hope at deadline, maybe a team or two will look to cash in on a hot young pitcher for young hitters..

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I'm just waiting on what Ross does. The Jake issue will work it self out. Theo shouldn't go higher than they went with Jon. If Jake wants a higher pay day than that they need to move on from him.

 

[anotheridiot]

I said a couple years ago when people were complaining about what the Cubs were doing as far as stacking up on future prospects..

Teams were locking in their good young players, so when you look ahead to future FAs, were not going to see many good ones available.especially those under 30.

Trades... Unfortunately for Cubs it the Sox selling young pitching Sale and maybe Quintana, otherwise I'm sure the Cubs would of had a great chance of landing him.
Nobody else selling their young pitching now, which is mainly because they see there nothing available via future FA and their holding onto their own.

So,seeing where the Cubs are at with position players and having control of most of them thru 2020,2021.. You gotta feel good about that.
Gotta hope at deadline, maybe a team or two will look to cash in on a hot young pitcher for young hitters..

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I was able to buy into this theo deal, but these last two offseasons of replacing the young hitters with Heyward, Fowler, Jay, and I am sure we will see some other veteran invited to spring training is where the problem lies. We have a 155 million dollar pitcher that cannot throw the ball to the bases and a 184 million dollar outfielder that forgot how to hit and needs to completely reinvent his swing. This year a stop gap in Jay in case Almora struggles in center, but what seems to be Zobrist, Schwarber, or Baez sitting instead of just putting Heyward back in center field like last off season.

All we should be seeing are moves with pitching and watching the rest of the national league try to catch up.

 

[CSF77]

I was able to buy into this theo deal, but these last two offseasons of replacing the young hitters with Heyward, Fowler, Jay, and I am sure we will see some other veteran invited to spring training is where the problem lies. We have a 155 million dollar pitcher that cannot throw the ball to the bases and a 184 million dollar outfielder that forgot how to hit and needs to completely reinvent his swing. This year a stop gap in Jay in case Almora struggles in center, but what seems to be Zobrist, Schwarber, or Baez sitting instead of just putting Heyward back in center field like last off season.

All we should be seeing are moves with pitching and watching the rest of the national league try to catch up.

Jay and Almora have equal splits vs L/R. It would be more about competition between the two who gets the start.

RF in Wrig is one of the hardest RF's in baseball. If they felt it was not a major factor then they would have left Soler there.

Schwarber is coming off major injury. Add to it they will let him catch some. Expect Zo getting time over there. Thus more AB's for Baez

 

[chibears55]

For those of you who were worried we'd lose him...breathe

@BleacherNation: BN: Cubs Reportedly Close to Re-Signing Munenori Kawasaki http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/01/03/cubs-reportedly-close-to-re-signing-munenori-kawasaki/ pic.twitter.com/RpS1vgbeED

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[chibears55]

Jay and Almora have equal splits vs L/R. It would be more about competition between the two who gets the start.

RF in Wrig is one of the hardest RF's in baseball. If they felt it was not a major factor then they would have left Soler there.

Schwarber is coming off major injury. Add to it they will let him catch some. Expect Zo getting time over there. Thus more AB's for Baez

I still dont think Schwarber will catch much if at all..

I think if he does, it will be late in games as a need and probably more towards the 2nd half of season.



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[TC in Mississippi]

I still dont think Schwarber will catch much if at all..

I think if he does, it will be late in games as a need and probably more towards the 2nd half of season.



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Well that's the big question isn't it? I think the Cubs want him to catch but they want his bat even more. They will not jeopardize his health just so he can can play the position but if he can physically take reps back there he's going to do it. If he's ready it wouldn't surprise me if they picked a pitcher and made Schwarber the personal catcher just like they had planned last year. Either way there will be another catcher on the roster when they break camp.

 

[beckdawg]

I still dont think Schwarber will catch much if at all..

I think if he does, it will be late in games as a need and probably more towards the 2nd half of season.



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Even if they just use him how they used Montero largely accomplishes a goal. Now, they aren't going to bench him like they did with Montero in the playoffs but what I mean is more that Maddon often pulled the starting catcher be it Ross or Contreras in favor of a LH bat later in games. You can rather easily do this with Schwarber in say the 6th or 7th inning and allow him to catch 1-2 innings. That limits the wear and tear on him but effectively allows you to carry 3 C's and all of the added benefits that come with that from a PH stand point. It also makes your OF defense better and while your C defense might take a bit of a hit there's less damage that realistically happens there.

You don't have to do that every day but it is a some what clever way to get everyone playing times.

 

[anotheridiot]

I still dont think Schwarber will catch much if at all..

I think if he does, it will be late in games as a need and probably more towards the 2nd half of season.



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So all people can say (with a minute sample size) is he sucks at catcher, but now you want him in there when the game is on the line?

I think Schwarber is a better catcher than left fielder. He is just one of those guys that get "hidden" in left field. You want your best defensive squad out there, its probably a different left fielder, and you seriously need to consider that Zobrist or Bryant will be in the outfield 5/7 games in the second half, that is if Maddon keeps them at third and second to cruise to the all star game start again. If he is not concerned about all star game votes this year, maybe the entire year.

 

[chibears55]

So all people can say (with a minute sample size) is he sucks at catcher, but now you want him in there when the game is on the line?

I think Schwarber is a better catcher than left fielder. He is just one of those guys that get "hidden" in left field. You want your best defensive squad out there, its probably a different left fielder, and you seriously need to consider that Zobrist or Bryant will be in the outfield 5/7 games in the second half, that is if Maddon keeps them at third and second to cruise to the all star game start again. If he is not concerned about all star game votes this year, maybe the entire year.

If im "all people"
I never said anything about him sucking..

I just dont think he needs to catch or worth the risk when they have 2 more then capable Catchers in Contreras and Montero to play everyday.



Only reason I say late in games to use him , would be in cases like extra innings or other situations where they use up both catchers and need him to catch.

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[Diehardfan]

If anyone thinks that there will be a lot of changes for the position players, think again. There's only two guys that are locked in at one position...Russell and Rizzo. Everyone else will do pretty much what they did last year, move around from spot to spot as needed. Many question Maddon's in-game X's and O's but you can't question the job he does getting everyone playing the right spot at the right time. The bonus is that it keeps all his players mentally tied to the games.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If anyone thinks that there will be a lot of changes for the position players, think again. There's only two guys that are locked in at one position...Russell and Rizzo. Everyone else will do pretty much what they did last year, move around from spot to spot as needed. Many question Maddon's in-game X's and O's but you can't question the job he does getting everyone playing the right spot at the right time. The bonus is that it keeps all his players mentally tied to the games.

Absolutely. This is Joe Maddon, it's what he does. I'm not sure who I was listening to on MLB Radio over the weekend, it may have been Jim Memelo, but they started talking about Kris Bryant and how he was eventually going to have to demand to be left at one position, preferably 3B, otherwise he would lose value in the years approaching FA. This was quite possibly the dumbest thing I've heard in a while. The guy has been in MLB for 2 years, he has won RoY and MVP in those 2 years and has compiled 15 (!) fWAR in those 2 years. If his baseball value is being hurt by his versatility then the ones doing the valuing are morons. I seriously couldn't believe what I was hearing so I kept listening and it was repeated. Yikes.