Offseason discussion/rumors

[Diehardfan]

My opening night lineup prediction vs. Cardinals and Wainwright..

C. Montero
1B. Rizzo
2B. Zobrist
SS. Russell
3B. Bryant
LF. Schwarber
CF. Jay
RF. Heyward
P. Lester

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I have no idea about the rest of the lineup I can assure you Montero will only catch Lester in emergency situations. He couldn't throw me out going 90'...what's he gonna do when Lester allows runners 15' leads or if someone drops down a bunt. This is where Ross will be missed...Contreras has to be Lester's guy by default.

 

[chibears55]

I have no idea about the rest of the lineup I can assure you Montero will only catch Lester in emergency situations. He couldn't throw me out going 90'...what's he gonna do when Lester allows runners 15' leads or if someone drops down a bunt. This is where Ross will be missed...Contreras has to be Lester's guy by default.

Montero gonna get. the start against a tough RH in Wainwright..

I think we seen the last of Lester having a personal Catcher.. Ross was something that happened because the two worked together before and that was Maddon way of getting Montero a day off and Ross a start.

I think this year were going to see Contreras get most of starts but Montero will start against most tough RHers.

I don't think we're going to see any pitcher have their own personal Catcher again..

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[beckdawg]

I think in general people are too down on Almora. He hit .277/.308/.455(101 wRC+) in his first 117 PAs. While that's not amazing production, Baez only hit .273/.314/.423(94 wRC+) over 450 PAs and previously had another 309 in 2014/15. In my eyes, going into 2017 they are largely similar players. Based on their 2016 results you expect more out of their glove than their bat but both have done enough with the bat to be decent. Now I want to be clear, Baez has a far higher theoretical upside than Almora. So, people are rightly enthusiastic about Baez. All I'm saying here is Almora arguably played better in his limited 2016.

It's weird to me that people aren't that excited about Almora. This was a guy who was supposed to be amazing with a glove and was still a work in progress as a hitter and he went out from the start as a better than league average hitter. You'll hear a lot about how great Kevin Kiermaier is and deservedly so. He's a career .258/.313/.425 hitter.
Billy Hamilton is another strong defensive CF. He's a career .248/.297/.334 hitter. Leonys Martin again another strong defender is a career .252/.305/.366. Now Almora isn't quite Ender Inciarte in terms of OBP(.292/.337/.385) but he's shown more power and that's not just a sample size thing. Almora hit .290/.322/.416 in the minors. Almora's never going to be Schwarber or Bryant but the only CF who's close to them is Mike Trout. Kevin Pillar was a top 10 CF hitting .266/.303/.376(80 wRC+) last year.

I think Almora's going to be playing a lot. But then I also think a lot of guys will be playing a lot. Part of the reason they are talking about running a 6th starter as part of the staff be that Ross or some other guy is to limit wear on players during the season. The same applies to hitters. Why grind the team down with 7-8 guys getting 700ish PAs? Assuming they go with a 12 man bench again, you can roughly split the 5935 non-pitcher PAs last year down to roughly 500 PAs per player. Now surely there will be injuries and maybe you give some guys more like 600-650 PAs but there is enough overall talent to play basically any combo you want and the cubs likely still win the division while also not grinding their guys down.

 

[PickSix]

Your boy Almora needs to get it going. I've got autographed baseballs and caps from his days at Kane County that I need to sell on eBay when he makes the HOF.

 

[CSF77]

Jay and Almora should be in competition for the starting gig in S/T. So performance should dictate who starts on opening day.

But I see it as upper management wants the added range that Heyward in RF and Almora/Jay provide in CF to lessen the demands put on Schwarber in LF.

I'm expecting you see Almora starting unless he just struggles in S/T then they go with Jay and Almora as Schwarber's D replacement.

So it really is not about finding AB's for Baez will be the focus vs protecting Schwarber.

Later year, when they feel more confident with Schwarber's recovery then I expect more experiments going on.

 

[SilenceS]

Jay and Almora should be in competition for the starting gig in S/T. So performance should dictate who starts on opening day.

But I see it as upper management wants the added range that Heyward in RF and Almora/Jay provide in CF to lessen the demands put on Schwarber in LF.

I'm expecting you see Almora starting unless he just struggles in S/T then they go with Jay and Almora as Schwarber's D replacement.

So it really is not about finding AB's for Baez will be the focus vs protecting Schwarber.

Later year, when they feel more confident with Schwarber's recovery then I expect more experiments going on.

Whats the competition? Jay is not a starter on most teams. Almora is a great defensive player if he hits well. Call me a Baez fan boy but he was the NLCS MVP and his defense in the infield is amazing, Maddon called it before anyone besides maybe me and I am a fan boy. He also has the straight poenteial to give you 30 plus homers woith gold glove defense. Who has that? Maybe two teams? My thing is Baez was almost 3 fWAR player last year. We are lucky if Schwarber give us that with 40 plus homeruns because his defense is going to be a negative. I am only saying this. Maddon loves Baez and we dont win the World Series without him. Not in one instance, in general. Plug in his work ethic and I dont see how he is just plat ton in Maddons eyes.. He is legit one of Maddons favorites.

 

[CSF77]

Like I said it has more to do with protecting Schwarber by limiting the demands put on him in LF. His injury involves lateral movement which is used more playing in the OF. So lessening the range he needs to cover by having 2 GG quality players next to him pays off more.

You are not going to get the same results with Zobrist or Bryant in RF.

And yes players struggle when teams figure out the holes in their swings. Then they go through a readjustment phase. Baez went through it and Rizzo. Bryant is just not human so we can skip him.

That is why I said later year when they feel Schwarber has crossed all of his he T's and dotted the i's then you will see more of Heyward in CF and Zo or Bryant in RF. Earlier season you would see Zo at LF to give Kyle more off days.

Baez is going to get his playing time but he is not the starter. He is there for his flexibility.

 

[chibears55]

@TheCCO: On this in day 2011, #Cubs traded Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Hak-Ju Lee, R.Chirinos, Sam Fuld to Rays for Matt Garza, F.Perez, Zac Rosscup

I still think this was one of Hendry worse trade...
He had an aging team coming off a 70+ win season and he trades young talented prospects mainly for a guy who was all hype. Which replaced lilly in rotation

That should of been the off season IMO, when Hendry should of started the house cleaning and trading away all the over 30s for youth.. He would've gotten a nice haul with some of those guys.


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[CSF77]

Maddon loves Baez and we dont win the World Series without him. Not in one instance, in general. Plug in his work ethic and I dont see how he is just plat ton in Maddons eyes.. He is legit one of Maddons favorites.

VS SFG: .375/.412/.563
VS LAD: .318/.333/.500
VS CLE: .167/.167/.267

He was outmatched by the RHSP in CLE. In fact he had to bunt because it got so bad.

Don't get me wrong. I love his D but they are benching Zo over him. Not after Zo put up a .357/.419/.500 in the series.

I believe it comes down to RHP vs LHP that dictated Joe's line up. Baez plain crushes LHP. Zo's splits favors him hitting left handed. So you are going to see some mix and matches to keep them all fresh for the grind.

If we were only talking about D then sure you want Baez every day. But that is not the driving factor in the season, endurance carries more weight. In the play offs with elimination it became a greater factor as every game mattered.

Over the long term you will expect Baez to gain a stable situation but I feel that will be based off of Zo's production and his durability. It will me more of a natural progression vs a forced issue.

 

[CSF77]

@TheCCO: On this in day 2011, #Cubs traded Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Hak-Ju Lee, R.Chirinos, Sam Fuld to Rays for Matt Garza, F.Perez, Zac Rosscup

I still think this was one of Hendry worse trade...
He had an aging team coming off a 70+ win season and he trades young talented prospects mainly for a guy who was all hype. Which replaced lilly in rotation

That should of been the off season IMO, when Hendry should of started the house cleaning and trading away all the over 30s for youth.. He would've gotten a nice haul with some of those guys.


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Would be nice but we would be talking about locking up Archer long term vs Arrieta. I believe that trade Jim pulled because he felt his job would be in jeopardy if he didn't make a push for a contender. That year was a stand back and evaluation year for the Rickett's. After that season they decided to start fresh.

 

[SilenceS]

@TheCCO: On this in day 2011, #Cubs traded Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Hak-Ju Lee, R.Chirinos, Sam Fuld to Rays for Matt Garza, F.Perez, Zac Rosscup

I still think this was one of Hendry worse trade...
He had an aging team coming off a 70+ win season and he trades young talented prospects mainly for a guy who was all hype. Which replaced lilly in rotation

That should of been the off season IMO, when Hendry should of started the house cleaning and trading away all the over 30s for youth.. He would've gotten a nice haul with some of those guys.


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He would have been fired instantly. Hendry had one last gasp to make a playoff team or the writing was on the wall. You can look back on the trade and say bad trade even though Garza was pretty good for us. But, the guy who every one thought was going to be something was Hak Ju Lee. He got injured and was never the same player. Archer came over in the Derosa trade which Cubs fans bashed Hendry for and Archer had big question marks then. He had little control and no one knew if he could stay a starter. Guyer is a replacement level player. You can say in hindsight because of Archer, but Hendry was not going to be part of a rebuild. Ownership was not going to allow it.

 

[CSF77]

That trade was Archer for Garza. Garza became Edwards and Grimm.

You have to look at the whole evolution.

I feel it turned out fine.

 

[CSF77]

Speaking of that. Is there any chance that they push Edwards back into a starter?

 

[chibears55]

Would be nice but we would be talking about locking up Archer long term vs Arrieta. I believe that trade Jim pulled because he felt his job would be in jeopardy if he didn't make a push for a contender. That year was a stand back and evaluation year for the Rickett's. After that season they decided to start fresh.

I understand he was still trying to contend with his guys on roster.
But he didn't really do anything to make that roster better..
His 2 key moves was replacing Lilly with Garza and Lee with Pena.
He just ended with a worse record.

All I'm saying is, I think he could of started unloading some of the older players for younger blood..
But if I recall, I seem to remember one knock on Hendry at the time was that he held onto certain players too long which wore their value out.

Don't get me wrong, I liked Hendry and thought he made some really good trades and signings..
I just didn't like the Garza trade because it didn't make sense to me at the time and Ill also add I didn't like the Pena signing.



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[TC in Mississippi]

Speaking of that. Is there any chance that they push Edwards back into a starter?

Everything I've seen indicates no. They think he's going to be their closer long term, possibly as early as next year.

 

[CSF77]

My thinking is it is easier to give a contract to Davis vs Arrieta moving forward.

I doubt Edwards will be this skinny kid over the duration of his career

 

[CSF77]

I understand he was still trying to contend with his guys on roster.
But he didn't really do anything to make that roster better..
His 2 key moves was replacing Lilly with Garza and Lee with Pena.
He just ended with a worse record.

All I'm saying is, I think he could of started unloading some of the older players for younger blood..
But if I recall, I seem to remember one knock on Hendry at the time was that he held onto certain players too long which wore their value out.

Don't get me wrong, I liked Hendry and thought he made some really good trades and signings..
I just didn't like the Garza trade because it didn't make sense to me at the time and Ill also add I didn't like the Pena signing.



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Fair enough. My opinion is when Tom took over the mandate was lower overhead. Getting Garza went against it but he came with control. That is what those moves were about. Getting rid of short term control and adding long term control.

Pena was a filler player. Lee was expiring. Add to it Lee rarely broke the 30 HR plateau. Solid hitter but far from a power threat.

 

[anotheridiot]

My thinking is it is easier to give a contract to Davis vs Arrieta moving forward.

I doubt Edwards will be this skinny kid over the duration of his career

No, I dont think Edwards will be the skinny little kids either, but size might take away some of what is making him explosive now. I never wanted CC Sabathia because I figured there was going to be no way he can continue to use that high holdem leg kick on the windup unless he lost 20 pounds per year.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm wondering if Ross is holding up the market a bit. He's arguably the best FA pitcher available with a number of guys still hanging around such as Hammel and Wood. There's also the idea that's been out there about TB and one of their starters. Seems like where ever he ends up signing the losers will be in the hunt. Chicago would appear to be his best option if money were the same. However, if he goes to Texas or Washington it's not hard to envision the cubs possibly going after Smyly/Cobb from TB or some of the other potential cheaper trade targets.

 

[SilenceS]

I'm wondering if Ross is holding up the market a bit. He's arguably the best FA pitcher available with a number of guys still hanging around such as Hammel and Wood. There's also the idea that's been out there about TB and one of their starters. Seems like where ever he ends up signing the losers will be in the hunt. Chicago would appear to be his best option if money were the same. However, if he goes to Texas or Washington it's not hard to envision the cubs possibly going after Smyly/Cobb from TB or some of the other potential cheaper trade targets.

Could be Ross, but I think someone posted Hammel isnt getting a lot of love around the league.