Offseason discussion/rumors

[beckdawg]

This is the issue: adding a #4-5 type as you are suggesting is low priority.

No I said Blair's got Mid rotation talent... ie #3. And even if he's a back of the rotation starter, why is that no longer a priority? It's great to have top end talent but depth is what wins. The cubs had great pitching but frankly none of it was elite on the level of Scherzer or Kershaw. The difference was the cubs had quality from #1 through #5. The cubs don't have depth at the top levels of their farm system. And as that pertains to Arrieta, it's fun to talk about the possibilities but who's to say they even can replace him? Maybe Archer never is traded. Maybe Gray isn't. Maybe you end up with a rotation of Lester Hendricks, Montgomery and 2 yet to be determined internal products.

The point here is Candelario isn't going to bring you back a huge return. He's just not that high of a ceiling. It doesn't matter who you pair him with he's not returning you a #1 or #2 starter and you're certainly not getting someone who's controlled for 3-4 years and is that quality unless you're including Candelario in a much larger package. Blair very well could end up like Jake Odorizzi. They both had similar prospect status and both were roughed up a little their first showing in the majors. And I'm not even sitting here saying Odorizzi is that amazing. He's a decent #3 starter. But that has value. Candelario on the other hand holds almost no value outside of being a trade piece.

Now if you want to argue Candelario is worth more than Blair then fine. I think that's a defendable position. Maybe you like Max Fried more than Blair because he has a higher top end. Maybe you argue Blair and Fried is fair for Candelario given some of Blair's luster is gone and Candelario killed it in AAA last year. But I honestly don't see a scenario where you're getting a top starter for Candelario. I'd much rather see them trade for 1-2 guys with mid rotation potential and hopefully coach them into better results. One of the reasons I brought up Blair is he largely fits the cubs profile for pitchers. Despite poor MLB results his contact profile went 21.0%/50.0%/29.0% for soft/med/hard which isn't far off Hendricks's career 22.3%/52.1%/25.6% rates. His minor league GO/FO rate at 1.13 which is around the 44% rate the cubs tend to prefer. And he had an 8.3 k/9 and a 3.1 bb/9 in the minors. That walk rate is a bit high but it's not terrible. And let's be honest, if the numbers are amazing no team is trading a 24 year old starter.

The reality here is what's the risk for the cubs? Worst case you end up with a trade like Stewart for DJ LeMahieu where Candelario turns into essentially what LeMaieu has with Colorado. But like LeMahieu, Candelario isn't going to be that player with chicago. And frankly, I don't see what holding on to him does for you. His depth isn't really needed for the MLB level and I can't see how even if he dominates AAA again his value some how goes up because he had a 155 wRC+ in AAA already. You're not topping that realistically. And it's not like he's going to see every day PAs at the MLB level to drive up his value. Dealing him now allows you more time to work with whomever you acquire for him. Bosio has gotten more out of far less talented pitchers than it would take for him to turn things around.

 

[DanTown]

We don't know if last year was a age issue or a blip. Up to that point his numbers were respectable.

He had a FIP of 4.45 in 2015 and had a FIP of 6.01 in 2016. He just turned 35. His velocity is down as well. Classic "got old fast".

 

[brett05]

No, Shields is awesome....Make an offer...any offer....please!!!

 

[CSF77]

No, Shields is awesome....Make an offer...any offer....please!!!

Besties then right?

 

[CSF77]

No I said Blair's got Mid rotation talent... ie #3. And even if he's a back of the rotation starter, why is that no longer a priority? It's great to have top end talent but depth is what wins. The cubs had great pitching but frankly none of it was elite on the level of Scherzer or Kershaw. The difference was the cubs had quality from #1 through #5. The cubs don't have depth at the top levels of their farm system. And as that pertains to Arrieta, it's fun to talk about the possibilities but who's to say they even can replace him? Maybe Archer never is traded. Maybe Gray isn't. Maybe you end up with a rotation of Lester Hendricks, Montgomery and 2 yet to be determined internal products.

The point here is Candelario isn't going to bring you back a huge return. He's just not that high of a ceiling. It doesn't matter who you pair him with he's not returning you a #1 or #2 starter and you're certainly not getting someone who's controlled for 3-4 years and is that quality unless you're including Candelario in a much larger package. Blair very well could end up like Jake Odorizzi. They both had similar prospect status and both were roughed up a little their first showing in the majors. And I'm not even sitting here saying Odorizzi is that amazing. He's a decent #3 starter. But that has value. Candelario on the other hand holds almost no value outside of being a trade piece.

Now if you want to argue Candelario is worth more than Blair then fine. I think that's a defendable position. Maybe you like Max Fried more than Blair because he has a higher top end. Maybe you argue Blair and Fried is fair for Candelario given some of Blair's luster is gone and Candelario killed it in AAA last year. But I honestly don't see a scenario where you're getting a top starter for Candelario. I'd much rather see them trade for 1-2 guys with mid rotation potential and hopefully coach them into better results. One of the reasons I brought up Blair is he largely fits the cubs profile for pitchers. Despite poor MLB results his contact profile went 21.0%/50.0%/29.0% for soft/med/hard which isn't far off Hendricks's career 22.3%/52.1%/25.6% rates. His minor league GO/FO rate at 1.13 which is around the 44% rate the cubs tend to prefer. And he had an 8.3 k/9 and a 3.1 bb/9 in the minors. That walk rate is a bit high but it's not terrible. And let's be honest, if the numbers are amazing no team is trading a 24 year old starter.

The reality here is what's the risk for the cubs? Worst case you end up with a trade like Stewart for DJ LeMahieu where Candelario turns into essentially what LeMaieu has with Colorado. But like LeMahieu, Candelario isn't going to be that player with chicago. And frankly, I don't see what holding on to him does for you. His depth isn't really needed for the MLB level and I can't see how even if he dominates AAA again his value some how goes up because he had a 155 wRC+ in AAA already. You're not topping that realistically. And it's not like he's going to see every day PAs at the MLB level to drive up his value. Dealing him now allows you more time to work with whomever you acquire for him. Bosio has gotten more out of far less talented pitchers than it would take for him to turn things around.

OMG this is a novel not a response.

Ok this is my view point. You wouldn't plug Montgomery in and trade Arrieta and back fill a stop gap #5 right after winning the series. That would make no sense at all.

The same applys to trading for a unproven starter and claiming he is a #3 starter before he has even pitched at that level.

It has little to do with value in a trade. Sure if they did a move like that and plugged him in as the 5ish starter it would be fine. That would put him into the same situation Hendricks was in and it would be up to him to make it more.

But if you are expecting him to just come in a solve the loss of Jake before he has proved that he can even compete on that stage? Little bit of a reach there.

That is why I viewed him as a 5. Hendricks came in as a 5 also. He took that and ran with it and got into the CY young voting. Not really knocking his talent but you have to be realistic. Theo is not going to plug a unproven into Jake's role on this team at this point. They would have to tank next year before he did a minor staff rebuild.

 

[beckdawg]

Theo is not going to plug a unproven into Jake's role on this team at this point.

You're acting like they have a choice. There's all of 2 names that might replace someone like Arrieta on the market and they are Gray and Archer. Candelario is not going to net you Gray largely because Oakland has Matt Chapman who's quite similar in terms of value. TB already turned down 3 top 100 prospects for Archer. It's fairly safe to say he's not going anywhere anytime soon. In terms of prospects, Blair was a 55 grade pitcher the last year he was prospect eligible. There's all of 3 pitchers with a 60 grade or higher in Reyes, Glasnow and Giolito.

Additionally, the cubs aren't just replacing Arrieta. You have to replace Lackey too. It's easy to view Ross as potentially that guy which as I've said I'm fine with. But the reality here is he may be the best pitcher the cubs can acquire in the next two years so it's entirely plausible he might be the one replacing Arrieta in which case the conversation is about who your 5th rotation member is. I'd much rather see someone like Blair than Ryan Williams, Zastryzny or Jen-ho Tseng. He has more upside. I doubt Clifton is ready but even if he is Blair is a better prospect. Cease and De La Cruz are unlikely to be ready and haven't proven they can throw 100+ innings.

And even if you like some of those players better, having depth is never a bad thing. Literally the only argument I see against this is if you're some how able to acquire something better with Candelario but as I already outlined, that's quite unlikely. I mean seriously what's the down side here? Even if they don't plug someone like Blair in right away, having someone with his talent at AAA just gives you depth behind your starting 5 in case of injury which is frankly more valuable than Candelario who probably doesn't make the majors with the cubs even with an injury.

 

[beckdawg]

The Braves and Mariners have announced a trade involving younger assets. Atlanta will receive lefties Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows, while Seattle will pick up outfielder Mallex Smith and righty Shae Simmons. Seattle has designated righty Cody Martin to clear roster space.

Atlanta is hording all the pitching prospects... Gohara was Seattle's #5 prospect(LHP) and is a 50 grade. Burrows is also a LHP and he's a 45 grade. Smith was a fairly well regarded CF prospect. He was one of the bigger pieces in the Justin Upton to SD trade. That now gives the braves a whopping 9 50 grade or higher pitching prospects which doesn't include Blair, Wisler, Teheran and Foltynewicz who are are all young and roughly that quality or better. The cubs have all of 5 guys with a 50 grade or higher.

Also the M's are apparently working on another deal likely for Smith.

 

[CSF77]

You're acting like they have a choice. There's all of 2 names that might replace someone like Arrieta on the market and they are Gray and Archer. Candelario is not going to net you Gray largely because Oakland has Matt Chapman who's quite similar in terms of value. TB already turned down 3 top 100 prospects for Archer. It's fairly safe to say he's not going anywhere anytime soon. In terms of prospects, Blair was a 55 grade pitcher the last year he was prospect eligible. There's all of 3 pitchers with a 60 grade or higher in Reyes, Glasnow and Giolito.

Additionally, the cubs aren't just replacing Arrieta. You have to replace Lackey too. It's easy to view Ross as potentially that guy which as I've said I'm fine with. But the reality here is he may be the best pitcher the cubs can acquire in the next two years so it's entirely plausible he might be the one replacing Arrieta in which case the conversation is about who your 5th rotation member is. I'd much rather see someone like Blair than Ryan Williams, Zastryzny or Jen-ho Tseng. He has more upside. I doubt Clifton is ready but even if he is Blair is a better prospect. Cease and De La Cruz are unlikely to be ready and haven't proven they can throw 100+ innings.

And even if you like some of those players better, having depth is never a bad thing. Literally the only argument I see against this is if you're some how able to acquire something better with Candelario but as I already outlined, that's quite unlikely. I mean seriously what's the down side here? Even if they don't plug someone like Blair in right away, having someone with his talent at AAA just gives you depth behind your starting 5 in case of injury which is frankly more valuable than Candelario who probably doesn't make the majors with the cubs even with an injury.

The trade in itself is fine. Placing expectations on him to replace Jake is where i disagree.

But to put out a situation that is plausible:

They pull the trade and he goes into competition with Montgomery for the 5. He wins and Mike goes back to his role and they drop the weakest lefty left over. Not speculating on who. As the season progresses he fits into his role and gets into the play off rotation discussion over Lackey. Does well in the play offs and is not over his head.

Then you may have a inhouse solution. But there is this whole process of cards falling right for it to happen.

That is why I never can sit back and say a non major league pitcher can fill in for Jake. That is what he is today. If the Cubs were in rebuild mode then that would be another situation. But the Cubs are not in the south sider's situation. Been there done that.

 

[beckdawg]

The trade in itself is fine. Placing expectations on him to replace Jake is where i disagree.

Not sure where you came to this conclusion. All I ever said was he had mid-rotation potential. I can almost guarantee you he will never be as good as Arrieta. He doesn't have that sort of stuff. My entire motivation here was more about filling out the #3-5 area of the rotation longer term. And while you could argue Arrieta is the cubs #3 pitcher, he's not a #3 pitcher. He's more talented than that. So of course he doesn't replace Jake but that was never the point. It is more about having enough talent to go 5-6 deep with mid-rotation level talent for the next 2-3 years at a minimum while also not having a ridiculous amount of money tied up there.

Having that depth might actually allow you to front load money on Arrieta and actually re-sign him since you would be able to fairly cheaply fill out the back of the rotation for the next several years and obviously it's always good in case of pitcher injury.

 

[beckdawg]

Also the M's are apparently working on another deal likely for Smith.

2:47pm: Smith “appears bound for Tampa,” Crasnick adds on Twitter.

One would guess for one of their starters.

Edit:

#Mariners acquire LHP Drew Smyly from Tampa Bay for OF Mallex Smith, INF Carlos Vargas & LHP Ryan Yarbrough.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

One would guess for one of their starters.

Edit:

#Mariners acquire LHP Drew Smyly from Tampa Bay for OF Mallex Smith, INF Carlos Vargas & LHP Ryan Yarbrough.

Jerry Dipoto wins the offseason. The AL West is going to be fun to watch.

 

[beckdawg]

Jerry Dipoto wins the offseason. The AL West is going to be fun to watch.

I'm pretty sure he scours message boards for trade ideas with the amount of moves he makes. Either that or the M's scouting and what not was garbage when he got there and they are just cleaning house.

 

[chibears55]

Beginning to wonder if Epstein getting a little gunshy in trading his hitting prospects.
Or
Is he just sitting on a plan Noone is considering to come up with some future pitching




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[TC in Mississippi]

Beginning to wonder if Epstein getting a little gunshy in trading his hitting prospects.
Or
Is he just sitting on a plan Noone is considering to come up with some future pitching




Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

I just don't think there's anyone out there to deal for. By trading Smyly the Rays are indicating clearly that they aren't moving Archer, at least not now, and there just aren't a lot of pitchers out there worth the get.

 

[CSF77]

I just don't think there's anyone out there to deal for. By trading Smyly the Rays are indicating clearly that they aren't moving Archer, at least not now, and there just aren't a lot of pitchers out there worth the get.

It more like the price tag is too high and Smyly was a easier deal to make.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure where you came to this conclusion. All I ever said was he had mid-rotation potential. I can almost guarantee you he will never be as good as Arrieta. He doesn't have that sort of stuff. My entire motivation here was more about filling out the #3-5 area of the rotation longer term. And while you could argue Arrieta is the cubs #3 pitcher, he's not a #3 pitcher. He's more talented than that. So of course he doesn't replace Jake but that was never the point. It is more about having enough talent to go 5-6 deep with mid-rotation level talent for the next 2-3 years at a minimum while also not having a ridiculous amount of money tied up there.

Having that depth might actually allow you to front load money on Arrieta and actually re-sign him since you would be able to fairly cheaply fill out the back of the rotation for the next several years and obviously it's always good in case of pitcher injury.

I don't disagree with you on that. My feeling is they are in a winning window and their hitting is cheap. So adding proven talent on the staff makes sense just because the have a discount going in the field.

Now as the hitting starts to get pricier the pitching talent that they have been stocking up should be ready and the reverse may become true.

I'm fine if they made that deal. But they will still need a legit 3 regardless.

 

[beckdawg]

I just don't think there's anyone out there to deal for. By trading Smyly the Rays are indicating clearly that they aren't moving Archer, at least not now, and there just aren't a lot of pitchers out there worth the get.

Think a better way to say this might be the juice isn't worth the squeeze so to say. I think there's some interesting arms but prices might just be too high.

I'm still wondering what Atlanta is doing though. I get the concept of loading up on pitching and keeping what works but they're getting a bit ridiculous at this point. Surely they have to make another deal for at least an OF who can presumably play CF because their OF depth looks fairly grim. I already made the case for a cubs/braves deal so I wont dive back in but I do wonder if Szczur would interest them. He seems pretty redundant for the cubs and may be squeezed off the roster by La Stella and Szczur lacks options. Seems like with Hannemann and Zagunis in AAA he's not that needed.

 

[chibears55]

I just don't think there's anyone out there to deal for. By trading Smyly the Rays are indicating clearly that they aren't moving Archer, at least not now, and there just aren't a lot of pitchers out there worth the get.

I get for 2017 there realistically only 1 rotation spot open (Montgomery)if they wanted to add there and keep Montgomery in bullpen (my preference)
But
I thought for sure they'd at least try and add a couple quality AA starters to have ready for 2018.


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[beckdawg]

One other interesting thing about the whole ATL situation, if this image from a braves forum is accurate, that means they have 7 unprotected guy eligible for the rule 5 draft after this season(all the guys in red) as part of their top 30 guys. That's a fair amount of guys to have to move to your 40 man or leave unprotected. Given Wisler, Sims, Fried and Blair are on their 40 man already and probably wont make the 25 man I don't think it's that outlandish to suggest those guys may be available to some extent. Probably not all of them but those guys make the most sense to move in order to fill out some of the rough sides in their offense.

 

[CSF77]

Think a better way to say this might be the juice isn't worth the squeeze so to say. I think there's some interesting arms but prices might just be too high.

I'm still wondering what Atlanta is doing though. I get the concept of loading up on pitching and keeping what works but they're getting a bit ridiculous at this point. Surely they have to make another deal for at least an OF who can presumably play CF because their OF depth looks fairly grim. I already made the case for a cubs/braves deal so I wont dive back in but I do wonder if Szczur would interest them. He seems pretty redundant for the cubs and may be squeezed off the roster by La Stella and Szczur lacks options. Seems like with Hannemann and Zagunis in AAA he's not that needed.

I'm not sure where Szczur fits in myself. He was #2 in PH's last year so you would expect a team placing value on his services. But he is a 25th player on a roster at this point. His speed degraded early. He is now best in LF and lacks the power to fill that role. So his calling card now his his PH ability.

I doubt teams would trade for that myself. Sign to a 1 mil 1 year deal I believe.