Offseason discussion/rumors

[TC in Mississippi]

Could be Ross, but I think someone posted Hammel isnt getting a lot of love around the league.

Which is really kind of shocking unless teams are convinced something is wrong with him. I really had him pegged at 4/$44 million or so. He's a reliable innings eater that is sometimes better than that. I saw something recently that teams are only interested in him for a 1 year deal at less than the $10 mil Andrew Cashner got. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

 

[CSF77]

No, I dont think Edwards will be the skinny little kids either, but size might take away some of what is making him explosive now. I never wanted CC Sabathia because I figured there was going to be no way he can continue to use that high holdem leg kick on the windup unless he lost 20 pounds per year.

Adding weight didn't affect Pedro Martinez. Age got him. But the LAD put him in the pen due to his size. Then traded him to the Expos. Big mistake.

 

[CSF77]

Ross is holding up the market. Cubs are thinking bringing back Wood to spot start if they fall short

 

[CSF77]

Which is really kind of shocking unless teams are convinced something is wrong with him. I really had him pegged at 4/$44 million or so. He's a reliable innings eater that is sometimes better than that. I saw something recently that teams are only interested in him for a 1 year deal at less than the $10 mil Andrew Cashner got. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Age. He will be 34 and teams believe he has lost off his fastball. Add to it his history has been fall apart after the ASG. Even his new work out plan did little to stymie the drop off.

The fact he was not even a part of the play off roster is not helping his value.

 

[DanTown]

Which is really kind of shocking unless teams are convinced something is wrong with him. I really had him pegged at 4/$44 million or so. He's a reliable innings eater that is sometimes better than that. I saw something recently that teams are only interested in him for a 1 year deal at less than the $10 mil Andrew Cashner got. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I wouldn't call him an innings eater when he's been around 160-170 in his career and never actually gotten to 180 innings. He's also going to be 34 and he has struggled to get along with Maddon a few times so imagine him with a less pleasing manager and a team winning less games.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wouldn't call him an innings eater when he's been around 160-170 in his career and never actually gotten to 180 innings. He's also going to be 34 and he has struggled to get along with Maddon a few times so imagine him with a less pleasing manager and a team winning less games.

I'm not disputing any of that. I'm still surprised at the complete lack of interest in an era where guys like Ian Kennedy get $70 mil. That's all. I'm not even a big Hammel fan.

 

[anotheridiot]

Which is really kind of shocking unless teams are convinced something is wrong with him. I really had him pegged at 4/$44 million or so. He's a reliable innings eater that is sometimes better than that. I saw something recently that teams are only interested in him for a 1 year deal at less than the $10 mil Andrew Cashner got. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Cashner took a bet on himself deal, almost like Edwin Jackson took in Washington. Cashner still expects to make the big money when he proves he is back to form. Hammel is what he is and I dont think he is top 5 on any team right now, but any injury around the league and he will get a call.

I dont know why Travis is not getting offers though. His bat was great when he was a starter, but its the case of the league buying that he is not starter material anymore with his struggles against righties.

 

[CSF77]

He is a cutter pitcher. That pitch has been known to reduce the speed of their fastball.

He doesn't even have a quality curve or slider so all factors looked at his best chance for success is in a pen.

 

[CSF77]

Add to it cashner has age in his favor. I still believe he would make a top end closer. He was bringing 98 heat when in short stints vs 93-94 in longer stints.

IMO Theo evaluated him as a BP pitcher and let the trade for a starting 1B go through. If Cash was a TOR without any hang ups then Shark would have been traded instead.

 

[beckdawg]

Atlanta is still interesting to me. Reportedly the braves have been eyeing some 2B/3B types such as Trevor Plouffe, Aaron Hill, Brandon Phillips and Brian Dozier. That largely makes sense because they are currently starting a poor defensive 32 year old Adonis Garcia at 3B who hit .273/.311/.406 last year and is a career .274/.307/.430 hitter overall. The elephant in the room would largely be Candelario for the cubs. He's almost certainly ready for MLB PAs after hitting .333/.417/.542 in AAA last year and .291/.379/.462 in AA the year prior.

Their starting rotation appears to be Julio Teheran, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, R.A. Dickey and Mike Foltynewicz. They will likely start the year with Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims all in AAA and all well regarded prospects at one point. They will also likely have Max Fried in AA with an eye toward quick promotion(he's 23 but was set back by TJS). And that's before you dive into their more A ball type guys such as Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Joey Wentz, Touki Toussaint, and Kyle Muller who are all top 20 guys for them.

I guess I'm just wondering what the cubs are planning for Candelario. He has basically 0 shot with the cubs. Even if Bryant gets hurt you're playing Baez at 3B and if both are hurt they likely still have La Stella around. It feels a lot like the second coming of Vogelbach in which case it's just a matter of when he's dealt rather than if. Just seems to me something like Candelario for one of those AAA guys makes a ton of sense to both sides. Candelario doesn't appear like he's going to be a star but should be solidly above average. None of Newcomb, Sims, Blair, and Wisler appear to be TOR guys with the possible exception of Newcomb if he figures out his command issues. Other 3 are fairly solidly mid rotation guys. My pick would probably be Blair and he sort of seems the more likely given he's the oldest and his above average pitches aren't that spectacular. Most grade his fastball as a 55 or a 60, his curve as a 50-55 and his change up as a 55. That's some what on par with a guy like Trevor Clifton to give some perspective.

I don't know, maybe there's some larger deal still out there that you would include Candelario in but I'm just not sure he moves the needle enough as the #2 piece in a deal.

 

[CSF77]

Atlanta is still interesting to me. Reportedly the braves have been eyeing some 2B/3B types such as Trevor Plouffe, Aaron Hill, Brandon Phillips and Brian Dozier. That largely makes sense because they are currently starting a poor defensive 32 year old Adonis Garcia at 3B who hit .273/.311/.406 last year and is a career .274/.307/.430 hitter overall. The elephant in the room would largely be Candelario for the cubs. He's almost certainly ready for MLB PAs after hitting .333/.417/.542 in AAA last year and .291/.379/.462 in AA the year prior.

Their starting rotation appears to be Julio Teheran, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, R.A. Dickey and Mike Foltynewicz. They will likely start the year with Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims all in AAA and all well regarded prospects at one point. They will also likely have Max Fried in AA with an eye toward quick promotion(he's 23 but was set back by TJS). And that's before you dive into their more A ball type guys such as Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Joey Wentz, Touki Toussaint, and Kyle Muller who are all top 20 guys for them.

I guess I'm just wondering what the cubs are planning for Candelario. He has basically 0 shot with the cubs. Even if Bryant gets hurt you're playing Baez at 3B and if both are hurt they likely still have La Stella around. It feels a lot like the second coming of Vogelbach in which case it's just a matter of when he's dealt rather than if. Just seems to me something like Candelario for one of those AAA guys makes a ton of sense to both sides. Candelario doesn't appear like he's going to be a star but should be solidly above average. None of Newcomb, Sims, Blair, and Wisler appear to be TOR guys with the possible exception of Newcomb if he figures out his command issues. Other 3 are fairly solidly mid rotation guys. My pick would probably be Blair and he sort of seems the more likely given he's the oldest and his above average pitches aren't that spectacular. Most grade his fastball as a 55 or a 60, his curve as a 50-55 and his change up as a 55. That's some what on par with a guy like Trevor Clifton to give some perspective.

I don't know, maybe there's some larger deal still out there that you would include Candelario in but I'm just not sure he moves the needle enough as the #2 piece in a deal.

I'm feeling they will figure it out. If it turns out to be another Montgomery type of return I'll be satisfied.

To be honest that is what I expect to be their adgenda with their excess depth. Extra 1B got a MR/SP. high quality extra MI got you a top end closer rental. 4th OF got you a closer 1 year rental.

So I expect it would go along those lines. Now in view of this a guy like Candi is nice to keep just because you never know what you will need come July. Either use or use as trade bait to fill another need. He is MLR so he holds value because he is ready for every day action.

A ideal trade is to use Candi and then add a top end arm lower in the farm. Say they decided to use Ceace as the head line. But then added Candi to the deal. Say the team they were dealing with lacked a quality 3B solution right now. Then they traded a TOR with control. They would be getting back most likely a top 100 arm and a fringe top 100 3B. Not a bad move for a small market team to pull.

 

[brett05]

I'm feeling they will figure it out. If it turns out to be another Montgomery type of return I'll be satisfied.

To be honest that is what I expect to be their adgenda with their excess depth. Extra 1B got a MR/SP. high quality extra MI got you a top end closer rental. 4th OF got you a closer 1 year rental.

So I expect it would go along those lines. Now in view of this a guy like Candi is nice to keep just because you never know what you will need come July. Either use or use as trade bait to fill another need. He is MLR so he holds value because he is ready for every day action.

A ideal trade is to use Candi and then add a top end arm lower in the farm. Say they decided to use Ceace as the head line. But then added Candi to the deal. Say the team they were dealing with lacked a quality 3B solution right now. Then they traded a TOR with control. They would be getting back most likely a top 100 arm and a fringe top 100 3B. Not a bad move for a small market team to pull.

I don't see a controlled TOR going to the Cubs for Candi and Cease. Just not nearly enough from the Cubs.

 

[beckdawg]

A ideal trade is to use Candi and then add a top end arm lower in the farm.

I don't really agree. The cubs already have lower level arms that are worth a damn. They need arms ready in the next year or two. That's why Blair is interesting to me. He's sort of similar to Montgomery as he's was a top 100 prospect not long ago but he sort of disappointed early. He doesn't have enough upside where he's an impossible to trade for but he has enough to be worth while. My feeling is more you get someone with some mid rotation ability who's near ready.

 

[CSF77]

I don't see a controlled TOR going to the Cubs for Candi and Cease. Just not nearly enough from the Cubs.

Depends, if it is the A's and they try to sell Grey? I think they pull that deal.

 

[CSF77]

I don't really agree. The cubs already have lower level arms that are worth a damn. They need arms ready in the next year or two. That's why Blair is interesting to me. He's sort of similar to Montgomery as he's was a top 100 prospect not long ago but he sort of disappointed early. He doesn't have enough upside where he's an impossible to trade for but he has enough to be worth while. My feeling is more you get someone with some mid rotation ability who's near ready.

It is very rare where teams trade prospect for prospect. The norm is proven for projectable where a team trades a known for a group of potentials. The main driving factor in those deals is moving future or current contract to get cheaper talent.

The Vogelbach deal was a guy that had no spot on the Cubs and future in the league was limited. He is basically 1/2 a player. High impact bat with no place to hide. Montgomery is a swing guy. He may become more if he can get his BB/9 respectable. His SO/9 makes him a interesting option for a 2nd lefty.

To be honest if it wasn't for both Jake and Lackey taking a hike at the same time I would be happy letting Mike prove himself this year and stains pat.

This was a reason why I was musing making Edwards convert over to starter this next off season and then extending Davis. Let Jake walk then and get a pick.

That would put the staff at Lester/Hendricks/(F/A)/Montgomery/Edwards with a few options at AAA.

If Underwood and Clifton perform strong this year then the situation changes where you may see one called up early.

So I kinda agree with going after Ross. If he takes another gig then resign Wood for the same role. Then think on Edwards starting with Underwood and Clifton that much closer.

Even if Underwood ends up a BP arm it frees up Edwards to convert back to a starter. Add to it Black looked pretty nasty in winter ball. He may make himself a strong option next year.

Talent is not a problem in the pen. It almost feels like it might force a starter conversion due to the excess depth.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Depends, if it is the A's and they try to sell Grey? I think they pull that deal.

Beane and company love catchers. I'd expect Caratini in any deal for Gray. That said I don't think they'll move him until the deadline. They'll want him to rebuild his value some before moving him.

 

[beckdawg]

It is very rare where teams trade prospect for prospect. The norm is proven for projectable where a team trades a known for a group of potentials. The main driving factor in those deals is moving future or current contract to get cheaper talent.

It's not that rare. I mean you're talking about trades like Rizzo for Cashner. They happen. The point is most of the guys in AAA for Atlanta really aren't "prospects" anymore. Blair and Wisler have both debuted and disappointed. Sims just wasn't as good as his height of his prospect status would suggest and has fallen off. There's a difference between trading for those guys and attempting to trade for say Anderson Espinoza for example.

The reason it's even rare to begin with is most teams don't have enough redundancy to make trades of young player for young player. Both the cubs and braves are mirrors of each other. Cubs have a ludicrous amounts of hitting and need pitching badly and Atlanta is just the flip and both have more than enough to cover their strength at the MLB with young players.

 

[CSF77]

It's not that rare. I mean you're talking about trades like Rizzo for Cashner. They happen. The point is most of the guys in AAA for Atlanta really aren't "prospects" anymore. Blair and Wisler have both debuted and disappointed. Sims just wasn't as good as his height of his prospect status would suggest and has fallen off. There's a difference between trading for those guys and attempting to trade for say Anderson Espinoza for example.

The reason it's even rare to begin with is most teams don't have enough redundancy to make trades of young player for young player. Both the cubs and braves are mirrors of each other. Cubs have a ludicrous amounts of hitting and need pitching badly and Atlanta is just the flip and both have more than enough to cover their strength at the MLB with young players.

This is the issue: adding a #4-5 type as you are suggesting is low priority. Just about every year you can go and get a starter like that for 8-10 mil. Even right now they could offer Hammel 10 mil to flip 150 innings again.

In other words that talent is not hard to get.

Replacing Arrieta is another story all together. If you are looking at a #3 type and don't want to part with top talent then IMO you drive after Ross as option 1. Option 2 is resign Jake. Option 3 is look at a guy like James Shields. Sox are stuck with him for 22 mil. 2 years at 10 mil each and a 2 mil buy out. I'm betting Jerry would make a exception to rid himself of that mistake for a minor return if the Cubs soak the deal.

 

[DanTown]

This is the issue: adding a #4-5 type as you are suggesting is low priority. Just about every year you can go and get a starter like that for 8-10 mil. Even right now they could offer Hammel 10 mil to flip 150 innings again.

In other words that talent is not hard to get.

Replacing Arrieta is another story all together. If you are looking at a #3 type and don't want to part with top talent then IMO you drive after Ross as option 1. Option 2 is resign Jake. Option 3 is look at a guy like James Shields. Sox are stuck with him for 22 mil. 2 years at 10 mil each and a 2 mil buy out. I'm betting Jerry would make a exception to rid himself of that mistake for a minor return if the Cubs soak the deal.

I wouldn't take James Shields for free. You implying that Shields is a #3 in a rotation? There's literally no evidence to say that's true.

 

[CSF77]

I wouldn't take James Shields for free. You implying that Shields is a #3 in a rotation? There's literally no evidence to say that's true.

We don't know if last year was a age issue or a blip. Up to that point his numbers were respectable.