Offseason discussion/rumors

[CSF77]

Under selling Castro? He's a sub .300 OBP guy who is chronically prone to defensive mental errors. Castro is one of the more harmful players you'll find. I'm not sure it's possible to have under sold him.

Mkay? He was traded for Adam Warren who couldn't hold a gig and was sent back.

So here was Adam's statement:

Asked why things did not go better in Chicago, Warren paused for a few seconds.

“I just didn’t pitch well,” he said. “I have a lot of opinions on why it didn’t go well. I think, mainly, I never really had a set role. It’s tough because I pride myself on my versatility, but not really knowing when you’re coming in — that was the hardest thing, the unpredictability.’’

Later, he elaborated on why it was an adjustment coming from the Yankees, whose manager, Joe Girardi, typically had established roles for relievers.


The bottom line was Castro had more value than a middle reliever. And he held more value that year.

So yes it was a undersell.

 

[beckdawg]

My main issue with him is 88 hits in 62 IP. He is getting wrecked in the majors. I'm sorry he feels bust.

If he wasn't a "bust" he wouldn't be a FA. It's more about whether or not you can fix what is wrong. Largely his issue has been his fastball gets hit harder than a normal player. However, he actually does have an out pitch and a lot of guys in AAA don't even have that. I never take issue with a team trying to fix a player if they already possess a good out pitch because if they can iron out some of his set up for that out pitch he becomes a much higher ceiling player.

The point isn't that you give him a shot day 1 in the majors. The point is he's someone you offer a minor league deal to and hopefully iron out some of his issues there.

 

[SilenceS]

Under selling Castro? He's a sub .300 OBP guy who is chronically prone to defensive mental errors. Castro is one of the more harmful players you'll find. I'm not sure it's possible to have under sold him.

Castro was the product of poor coaching with uncanny eye to hand. He was brought up way to young. Castro barring injury will come close to 3000 hits. The Cubs messed up with Castro. He is still a player.


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[SilenceS]

I agree with this for the most part. Zobrist is your starter at 2B and Baez is the super-sub, then come playoff time you put Jay in for defense and hope the bat comes through. People forget that not all players come out of the gate like Kris Bryant.

Zobrist is on the cusp of not playing more than a 130 games a year. We have to give him a week break after the all star game. Baez is hungry. He got put in his place. I am a better. I will bet on Baez. I am his biggest fan boy


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[beckdawg]

Castro was the product of poor coaching with uncanny eye to hand. He was brought up way to young. Castro barring injury will come close to 3000 hits. The Cubs messed up with Castro. He is still a player.


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Personally think Castro is a player playing in the wrong era. If he had played in the 80's or early 90's before OBP became so in vogue he'd be viewed much differently. His problem is largely what he does well isn't really what teams are looking for anymore.

 

[SilenceS]

Personally think Castro is a player playing in the wrong era. If he had played in the 80's or early 90's before OBP became so in vogue he'd be viewed much differently. His problem is largely what he does well isn't really what teams are looking for anymore.

I don't disagree. The Yankees seem to think of him as their future. I'm happy for him.


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[beckdawg]

I don't disagree. The Yankees seem to think of him as their future. I'm happy for him.


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Not sure how highly they think of him. Maybe it's a lot but they also have Torres and Mateo as huge MI prospects near the majors. My guess would be both are likely to supplant him. I sort of see them taking him on as a buy low guy and if he can get hot he's a good trade piece at a deadline.

 

[TL1961]

Mkay? He was traded for Adam Warren who couldn't hold a gig and was sent back.

So here was Adam's statement:

Asked why things did not go better in Chicago, Warren paused for a few seconds.

“I just didn’t pitch well,” he said. “I have a lot of opinions on why it didn’t go well. I think, mainly, I never really had a set role. It’s tough because I pride myself on my versatility, but not really knowing when you’re coming in — that was the hardest thing, the unpredictability.’’

Later, he elaborated on why it was an adjustment coming from the Yankees, whose manager, Joe Girardi, typically had established roles for relievers.


The bottom line was Castro had more value than a middle reliever. And he held more value that year.

So yes it was a undersell.

Addition by subtraction.

The Cubs knew they had to get his bad D and unfocused head out of the lineup, and they did. The team was far, far better off.

 

[CSF77]

Torres may end up at 3B. Mateo is a natural SS. They should be fine in the IF.

 

[TL1961]

I don't disagree. The Yankees seem to think of him as their future. I'm happy for him.


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His days as a starter in NY are numbered.

 

[CSF77]

If he wasn't a "bust" he wouldn't be a FA. It's more about whether or not you can fix what is wrong. Largely his issue has been his fastball gets hit harder than a normal player. However, he actually does have an out pitch and a lot of guys in AAA don't even have that. I never take issue with a team trying to fix a player if they already possess a good out pitch because if they can iron out some of his set up for that out pitch he becomes a much higher ceiling player.

The point isn't that you give him a shot day 1 in the majors. The point is he's someone you offer a minor league deal to and hopefully iron out some of his issues there.

Nothing wrong with a minor league deal. I just feel like they are just chasing a old pick. If something works out then hat is fine.

My problem is they do not have a plan A after coming up short on Ross. This move is forgettable

 

[CSF77]

Even in Boston they had more misses developing pitching. Lester is a abnormality from them. They have a track record of developing hitting so what they are doing now is not new.

Chasing a old pick that failed. Not really remarkable from them. Most of their pitching developments came up short and they ended up using other means to acquire pitching.

 

[beckdawg]

I just feel like they are just chasing a old pick.

Well that's sort of the issue though. There are no sure things out there. And I'm not saying they shouldn't look to make more reliable deals as well but Drew Pomeranz(along with a PTBNL that was Jose Torres) was traded for Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski. Pomeranz was the 2010 #5 overall pick who prior to 2016 had a 4.60/4.48 ERA FIP and 7.67 k/9 4.17 bb/9. Alonso some what famously was the cause of trading Rizzo but he's no where near the player he was thought to be even in 2015 where he posted 1.1 fWAR over 402 PAs. Rzepczynski is a pretty good loogy but he's not amazing.

Point here being you don't find gems like this if you're not looking. This front office liked Kelly enough to draft him 30th overall and then subsequently trade for him in Hoyer/Jason McLeod. Certainly some players just aren't as good as you think but it's not like he fell out of favor under Hoyer's watch in SD. He was traded 3 years after Hoyer left. Maybe it's just a case of a new front office not seeing a proper way to use someone. And obviously Bosio has been someone who can pull more out of pitchers than most pitching coaches. Maybe he doesn't work out but you really have little to lose.

 

[beckdawg]

Even in Boston they had more misses developing pitching.

I mean you could basically take out Boston and put every major league team in this. Very few teams reliably develop pitchers. That was obviously the idea behind drafting so heavy on hitters. For example, look at Atlanta right now. They are obviously trying to build via pitching and have made a ridiculous amount of trades for pitching when rebuilding as well as spending a lot of their high round picks there. A number of those guys are just going to fail. Some will fail early and have the team give up on them and then wander around to another team and possibly make something. That's just the way things go.

But as I said before, you're not just going to find anyone with no obvious flaws sitting around. Even ross had large injury concerns.

 

[CSF77]

Some teams or let's say the focus of some organizations is pitching. Tampa was good at this and is still producing pitching. Pittsburg has produced pitching and has taken fallen short pitchers and pulled their potentials. NYM also has done this.

Those teams did not just back into it. They focus on it more. That is why they are good at it.

Jed and Theo are just tossing darts at the wall randomly and are playing chaos theory vs creating a focus. They are really good at taking talent and bringing out potential. That is where they excell.

So ya the whole reclaim on Kelly may work out because that is what they do well. He really needs to get away from his fastball usage though. Maybe goto a cutter/curve mix where his fastball can be used as a off pitch.

Sometimes changing his approach is a major factor. He hen you have to look at mechanics. See if he is tipping his pitches. Etc.

He sounds like a project but it is not like they have this wealth of high ended pitching talent.

 

[beckdawg]

Some teams or let's say the focus of some organizations is pitching. Tampa was good at this and is still producing pitching. Pittsburg has produced pitching and has taken fallen short pitchers and pulled their potentials. NYM also has done this.

Those teams did not just back into it. They focus on it more. That is why they are good at it.

Jed and Theo are just tossing darts at the wall randomly and are playing chaos theory vs creating a focus. They are really good at taking talent and bringing out potential. That is where they excell.

So ya the whole reclaim on Kelly may work out because that is what they do well. He really needs to get away from his fastball usage though. Maybe goto a cutter/curve mix where his fastball can be used as a off pitch.

Sometimes changing his approach is a major factor. He hen you have to look at mechanics. See if he is tipping his pitches. Etc.

He sounds like a project but it is not like they have this wealth of high ended pitching talent.

I mean you can call it chaos theory vs creating a focus but the fact remains teams that "focus on pitching" do it by volume. It's not like the teams you're talking about hit on every pitching prospect anywhere near as well as the cubs have on hitters. For example if we use the first 10 rounds as realistic expectations for a player who might actually make it the rays have drafted the following...

2005 4 118 Jeremy Hellickson (minors) RHP
2006 4 109 Alex Cobb (minors) RHP
2007 1 1 David Price (minors) LHP
2007 8 245 Matt Moore (minors) RHP
2011 1s 52 *Blake Snell (minors) LHP
2014 2 72 Brent Honeywell (minors) RHP

Those are the noteworthy names. Full list is in spoiler tag to avoid a huge lengthy post. But that's 6 names out of 62 players drafted rounds 1-10 over 12 draft classes. Is that really any worse than throwing shit at the wall on guys who are closer to the majors but haven't succeed on their draft promise? And if we're being real here, Cobb, Moore and Hellickson haven't really killed it mostly due to injury and Snell and Honeywell are both still prospect-ish. Price was the #1 overall pick so they really are suppose to hit big on that.

Spoiler

2005 1 8 Wade Townsend (minors) RHP
2005 2 56 Chris Mason (minors) RHP
2005 3 88 Bryan Morris (minors) RHP
2005 4 118 Jeremy Hellickson (minors) RHP
2005 6 178 Greg Reinhard (minors) RHP
2005 7 208 Mike Wlodarczyk (minors) LHP
2005 9 268 Derek Feldkamp (minors) RHP

2006 2 47 Josh Butler (minors) RHP
2006 3 79 Nicholas Fuller (minors) RHP
2006 4 109 Alex Cobb (minors) RHP
2006 7 199 Ryan Reid (minors) RHP
2006 8 229 Tyree Hayes (minors) RHP

2007 1 1 David Price (minors) LHP
2007 2 65 Will Kline (minors) RHP
2007 3 95 Nick Barnese (minors) RHP
2007 4 125 David Newmann (minors) LHP
2007 8 245 Matt Moore (minors) RHP

2008 2 47 Kyle Lobstein (minors) LHP
2008 6 173 Shane Dyer (minors) RHP
2008 9 263 Shawn Smith (minors) LHP

2009 6 199 Devin Fuller (minors) RHP
2009 9 289 Kevin James (minors) LHP

2010 2 66 Jake Thompson (minors) RHP
2010 4 131 Austin Wood (minors) RHP
2010 5 161 Ian Kendall (minors) RHP
2010 6 191 Jesse Hahn (minors) RHP
2010 8 251 Merrill Kelly (minors) RHP

2011 1 24 *Taylor Guerrieri (minors) RHP
2011 1s 42 *Jeff Ames (minors) RHP
2011 1s 52 *Blake Snell (minors) LHP
2011 1s 59 *Grayson Garvin (minors) LHP
2011 2 89 Lenny Linsky (minors) RHP
2011 6 210 Jake Floethe (minors) RHP
2011 7 240 Ryan Carpenter (minors) LHP
2011 10 330 Jacob Faria (minors) RHP

2012 4 152 Nolan Gannon (minors) RHP
2012 6 212 Damion Carroll (minors) RHP
2012 10 332 Sean Bierman (minors) LHP

2013 1 29 *Ryne Stanek (minors) RHP
2013 6 188 Stephen Woods (minors) RHP
2013 8 248 Roel Ramirez (minors) RHP
2013 9 278 Austin Pruitt (minors) RHP
2013 10 308 Aaron Griffin (minors) RHP

2014 2 60 Cameron Varga (minors) RHP
2014 2 72 Brent Honeywell (minors) RHP
2014 3 96 Brock Burke (minors) LHP
2014 4 127 Blake Bivens (minors) RHP
2014 7 217 Mike Franco (minors) RHP
2014 9 277 Chris Pike (minors)
2014 10 307 Brad Wallace (minors) RHP

2015 4 118 Brandon Koch (minors) RHP
2015 6 178 Benton Moss (minors) RHP
2015 8 238 Reece Karalus (minors) RHP
2015 10 298 Sam Triece (minors) RHP

2016 3 90 Austin Franklin (minors) RHP
2016 4 120 Easton McGee (minors) RHP
2016 5 150 Mikey York (minors) RHP
2016 6 180 Zack Trageton (minors) RHP
2016 7 210 J.D. Busfield (minors) RHP
2016 8 240 Kenny Rosenberg (minors) LHP
2016 9 270 Peter Bayer (minors) RHP
2016 10 300 Spencer Jones (minors) RHP

 

[beckdawg]

Baez is a superior defender with a 30 plus home run bat and already NLCS MVP at 23. Happ is a switch hitter. The Cubs arent trading Baez unless its an unreal package. Also, post where the rumors come from.

This is hella late but I actually stumbled upon where i think it came from...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-the-dodgers-a-second-baseman/

also...

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/...n-dozier-javier-baez-mark-trumbo-notes-011917

 

[TC in Mississippi]

This is hella late but I actually stumbled upon where i think it came from...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-the-dodgers-a-second-baseman/

also...

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/...n-dozier-javier-baez-mark-trumbo-notes-011917

To be fair on the Dave Cameron piece he explains in detail why a trade between the clubs won't happen so I don't why people have their dander up. He just show that there is a fit in theory but not in practice as these are two teams fighting each other to be the best in the NL.

 

[TL1961]

Zobrist is on the cusp of not playing more than a 130 games a year. We have to give him a week break after the all star game. Baez is hungry. He got put in his place. I am a better. I will bet on Baez. I am his biggest fan boy


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You are second, dude. ?

 

[SilenceS]

Not sure how highly they think of him. Maybe it's a lot but they also have Torres and Mateo as huge MI prospects near the majors. My guess would be both are likely to supplant him. I sort of see them taking him on as a buy low guy and if he can get hot he's a good trade piece at a deadline.

They have him until 2020. They have had talks if the prospects are ready. He would move to third.