Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[TC in Mississippi]

Problem I have with this is you're taking more payroll on and I'm not sure you're substantially improving. Like you wanna bring on Machado i'm all for that. I think that's a huge offensive impact at one of the worst positions the cubs had last year. Brantley is going to be 32 and the past 3 years combined he's been a 115 wRC+ hitter which is identical to the 115 Schwarber put up this year. Sure they are entirely different kind of hitters but the point there is the impact you're getting isn't really there. And Schwarber could finally break out next year making this conversation look even more silly.

I just don't see how the cubs are getting better removing Schwarber from their team. He's basically a top 60 hitter in baseball with enormous potential. If you're going for an upgrade IMO it's 3 positions. CF, C and SS. Now when I say C I don't think you fuck with Contreras too much but I'd bring in someone behind him that's better than Caratini. The cubs got a 85 tOPS+ out of C last year which other than pitchers was the worst position on the team. SS was second worst at 99 and keep in mind that's WITH Baez playing there quite a bit. CF is 104. 3B is 107 but that's mostly Bryant not playing. RF is 112, LF is 112, 2B is 121 and 1B is 123.

Solving SS is easy if you sign Machado. Solving CF is harder. I mentioned the idea of Fowler before. But other than him I don't see a lot of CF who can hit who are getting traded. Maybe Tommy Pham? Either way, that's where I'm putting my effort not trying to ditch Schwarber. I do think you have some leverage to potentially move Heyward to CF more and look for a RF. That was the idea behind Adam Eaton for say Happ and Monty I mentioned previously. However, I don't think the cubs have unlimited money as I mentioned before.

They are already on the hook for Heyward($20 mil), Lester($27.5 mil), Darvish($20 mil), Zobrist($12.5 mil), Chatwood($12.5), Morrow($9 mil), Rizzo($11.286), Cishek($6.5), Smyly($7), and Duensing($3.5). That's a combined $130 mil. When you bring in the guys likely with options, Hamels($20 mil), Quintana($10.5), Kintzler has a $10 team option which I assume they decline but a $5 mil player option I think he takes, Strop($6.25) and that combines to another $41.75 mil or roughly $171.5 mil before you even talk about arb. I'd estimate the cubs end up owing at least $40 mil in arb most of which goes to Hendricks and Bryant but you also have Baez and Schwarber both being first year eligible. So that would put you at $211.5 mil. Presumably Machado's getting around $30 mil a year and Harper likely will too.

The problem is last year if you spent more than $237 mil your first draft pick was lowered 10 spots on top of paying a 42.5-45% surcharge tax on top of the normal luxury tax. So, trading Schwarber who's going to still be relatively cheap to sign a FA who's not doesn't make sense in that regard either.

The penalties are different the first year and we have no idea how much money they want to spend. I read somewhere that the thinking is $20-$30 mil over the CBT but who knows? As far as CF Inciarte will likely be moved but was 2018 an outlier or not in terms of OBP? Pham is NOT getting moved, they love him in TB and got him for steal. I would prefer to keep Schwarber myself but he's the most valuable trade piece which is why he's ending up in all these opinion pieces.

 

[beckdawg]

The penalties are different the first year and we have no idea how much money they want to spend. I read somewhere that the thinking is $20-$30 mil over the CBT but who knows? As far as CF Inciarte will likely be moved but was 2018 an outlier or not in terms of OBP? Pham is NOT getting moved, they love him in TB and got him for steal. I would prefer to keep Schwarber myself but he's the most valuable trade piece which is why he's ending up in all these opinion pieces.

There's 2 different sets of penalties though. You're talking about just straight up luxury tax. But there's a second level to that to hit teams like NYY and LAA who were grossly overspending and just tanking the first level tax. The second level tax as far as I'm aware doesn't require you to be over the penalty for multiple years. It's just a hard cap that if you go over it you lose 10 spots on your first draft pick and pay a giant tax on top of the first tax.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...h-payroll-teams-with-lowered-draft-picks.html

 

[kapooncha]

Beck, starting to think you have some sort of man crush on Schwarber.

 

[Omeletpants]

Beck, starting to think you have some sort of man crush on Schwarber.

Noob seems to shoot his mouth off a lot

 

[TL1961]

Problem I have with this is you're taking more payroll on and I'm not sure you're substantially improving. Like you wanna bring on Machado i'm all for that. I think that's a huge offensive impact at one of the worst positions the cubs had last year. Brantley is going to be 32 and the past 3 years combined he's been a 115 wRC+ hitter which is identical to the 115 Schwarber put up this year. Sure they are entirely different kind of hitters but the point there is the impact you're getting isn't really there. And Schwarber could finally break out next year making this conversation look even more silly.

I just don't see how the cubs are getting better removing Schwarber from their team. He's basically a top 60 hitter in baseball with enormous potential. If you're going for an upgrade IMO it's 3 positions. CF, C and SS. Now when I say C I don't think you fuck with Contreras too much but I'd bring in someone behind him that's better than Caratini. The cubs got a 85 tOPS+ out of C last year which other than pitchers was the worst position on the team. SS was second worst at 99 and keep in mind that's WITH Baez playing there quite a bit. CF is 104. 3B is 107 but that's mostly Bryant not playing. RF is 112, LF is 112, 2B is 121 and 1B is 123.

Solving SS is easy if you sign Machado. Solving CF is harder. I mentioned the idea of Fowler before. But other than him I don't see a lot of CF who can hit who are getting traded. Maybe Tommy Pham? Either way, that's where I'm putting my effort not trying to ditch Schwarber. I do think you have some leverage to potentially move Heyward to CF more and look for a RF. That was the idea behind Adam Eaton for say Happ and Monty I mentioned previously. However, I don't think the cubs have unlimited money as I mentioned before.

They are already on the hook for Heyward($20 mil), Lester($27.5 mil), Darvish($20 mil), Zobrist($12.5 mil), Chatwood($12.5), Morrow($9 mil), Rizzo($11.286), Cishek($6.5), Smyly($7), and Duensing($3.5). That's a combined $130 mil. When you bring in the guys likely with options, Hamels($20 mil), Quintana($10.5), Kintzler has a $10 team option which I assume they decline but a $5 mil player option I think he takes, Strop($6.25) and that combines to another $41.75 mil or roughly $171.5 mil before you even talk about arb. I'd estimate the cubs end up owing at least $40 mil in arb most of which goes to Hendricks and Bryant but you also have Baez and Schwarber both being first year eligible. So that would put you at $211.5 mil. Presumably Machado's getting around $30 mil a year and Harper likely will too.

The problem is last year if you spent more than $237 mil your first draft pick was lowered 10 spots on top of paying a 42.5-45% surcharge tax on top of the normal luxury tax. So, trading Schwarber who's going to still be relatively cheap to sign a FA who's not doesn't make sense in that regard either.

Tommy Pham is not a CF. Tommy Pham is an angry, me-me-me guy. No thanks.

 

[kapooncha]

Noob seems to shoot his mouth off a lot

More like shooting my fingers off since I'm typing, not speaking.

 

[beckdawg]

I've said all I really need to on Schwarber so I'm not going to continue beating that drum but if you think they would trade him you're crazy. He had more fWAR than Rizzo in 150 fewer PAs for crying out loud. You're not replacing him with someone better. Harper was worth 0.3 fWAR more with 185 more PAs and is going to be 10 times as expensive. If the front office makes that sort of move I'll lambast them for being stupid because that would be a terrible use of resources. Like wise the aforementioned Brantley was worth 0.3 fWAR more in 121 more PAs. He's probably only 5x more expensive in FA. And keep in mind people seem to think this was a bad year for Schwarber. What's a "everything goes right" type year look like?

That's why I'll sit here and sing his praises. The fact that we're even having a conversation with him and Happ in the same tier is unfathomable to me. Schwarber walked more in terms of bb%, he struck out less, his iso was higher, his BABIP was lower, he hit for a higher average, he had a higher OBP, he had a better slugging%, he had a better wRC+, he had a better wOBA, his BsR stat on fangraphs was higher, in the OF this year Happ was -7 DRS and -5.6 UZR/150, Schwarber was +2 DRS and 14 UZR/150. If you just narrow that down to LF for Happ albeit only 276.0 innings he was +1 DRS and 12.4 UZR/150. In other words, Schwarber was better in pretty much any metric you want to use in 2018. Schwarber is basically a few changes vs LHP away from being a 4+ win player. Happ is a few changes away from being an average MLB player at around 2 wins.

I get that people think the team needs more of a lead off hitter vibe and frankly I agree but trading away Schwarber isn't making the team better. They are going to need to get that out of CF, RF or 2B and shuffle the various players around accordingly.

 

[CSF77]

And keep in mind people seem to think this was a bad year for Schwarber.

I take issue with this bias. That was his best WAR output ever and what is the gauge stating it is anything. Much less bad. Is it bad compared to what they think he could be? Well that is bullshit. Until he has put up contestant quality years you have nothing to compare him against. Except what he has done.

He put up some decent numbers and it translated over to wRC+.

But I feel change will be tied to if a player is heading in the right direction or not.

What Theo said was vague but I'm thinking it comes down to the youth developing or not.

fWAR
Baez: 2.2/2.3/5.3 Progressing with experience
Schwarber: 1.9/1.6/3.2 omitted the injury so I see progression.
Contreras: 2.3/3.3/2.6 Took a dip
Heyward: 1.0/1.0/2.0 well moved up but still a poor showing. Bet Theo regrets 4 combined WAR over 60 mil paid...
Happ: 1.9/1.5 Moved backwards.
Almora: .6/1.1/1.1 Seems flat here but he added 156 more PA from last year. That is a step back with increased play.
Russell: 3.4/1.5/1.4 Bingo. Gotta go. That is falling.


Others: (Basically for laughs honestly)
Bryant: 6.1/7.9/6.7/2.3...OMG... J.K.
Rizzo: 5.2/4.9/4.0/2.9 Actually...well they wont do anything but they do need to keep a eye here. He might have peaked early.
Zobrist: 4.0/.4/3.6 Heading up again.

So I see it as Russell has to blow. Almora is a platoon split and not a starter. Vastly overrated. Say the same about Heyward. Not starter quality.

Neutral guys: Contreras and Happ for the most part. Happ hasn't been good yet. But Contreras has starter level WAR.

Rizzo is trending downward. May affect his long term standing honestly. I think he need a strong year next year or they may end up making a change.

 

[DanTown]

My best hope for the off-season

- Trade Schwarber, Mike Montgomery, Addison Russell for Tyler Rogers, Nick Gordon, two of their young pitcher/hitters

This solves the issue of getting a cost controlled reliever but the key to this deal is Rogers; a lefty who has shown a consistency to pitch and get guys out. Low walks, good stuff. 4 years of team control is insanely valuable. For the Twins, they get a middle of the order DH who can give them more consistent power and as weird as it sounds, Montgomery would slide right into their rotation. The Russell for Gordon swap is basically two guys who stalled out at various levels getting new starts. Gordon would get to continue develop and makes sense to replace Zobrist's roster spot.

- Sign Manny Machado

Machado v Harper is a great debate but Machado has the added benefit of not costing a draft pick while also giving the team more infield flexibility, a necessity in the world post Russell basically being off the team now. Machado as a contract makes sense as you feel that he has the athleticism to still play a good 3B or SS while potentially moving to 1B in 2022 when the Cubs have to make a hard and expensive decision on Anthony. The thing I always harp back on Rizzo with it: there have been 87 1B who have 1500+ PA between the ages of 32 and 37. The median fWAR of that group is 6.9 and in the top 10, you have two known steroid users (McGwire and Palmerio) and another (Bagwell) who was as suspected as you get. I love Tony but if you're signing either Machado or Harper, the expectation has to be they age out at 1B as an expensive but still productive hitter. I have no problem signing Machado and letting him figure it out down the line.

- Sign Joakim Soria (if available) and Jesse Chavez, sign Jake McGee

The Cubs need to bolster the overall depth of their bullpen and while you can't expect Chavez to be the guy he was but you have to assume he's still a solid reliever. With Soria, you have another reliever who has closer experience and help with dealing with Morrow's back issues. McGee is a guy who had an awful year in Colorado but with the history of Hickey, you still think he has enough in the tank to not be the guy he was this year. Just a year ago he was a sub 3FIP reliever in Coors.

- Decline Hamels option and resign him to a 2/28, give him a full no-trade

If you decline the option on Hamels, the Rangers pay the six million. In this scenario, the Cubs get Hamels for two years and Hamels makes decent money (he'd actually make 2/34 where as the Cubs exercise the option, he only makes 20 million in 2019). He was the reason team stayed a float in the second half and with the question marks with Darvish and Chatwood, there is simply no way to let him walk out the door.

Your 2019 Cubs

vs LHP
Zobrist - LF
Bryant - RF
Rizzo - 1B
Machado - SS
Baez - 2B
Contreras - C
Almora - CF
P
Bote - 3B

LaStella, Happ, Caratini, Heyward bench

Vs RHP
Zobrist - LF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Machado - SS
Baez - 2B
Contreras - C
Heyward - RF
P
Happ - CF

LaStella, Bote, Caratini, Almora bench

SP
Lester
Hendricks
Hamels
Quintana
Darvish/Chatwood/Smyly

RP
Soria, Chavez, Strop, Morrow, Cishek, Edwards, Rogers (LHP), McGee (LHP)

 

[CSF77]

Sano has never held a positive DEF value...ever. fWAR: 2.0/1.2/2.4/0.0

He is kinda a bum and couldn't hold Schwarber's jock after that showcase.

That is the epitome of moving backwards. He is on the fast track to learning Japanese right now.

 

[fatbeard]

I've said all I really need to on Schwarber so I'm not going to continue beating that drum but if you think they would trade him you're crazy. He had more fWAR than Rizzo in 150 fewer PAs for crying out loud. You're not replacing him with someone better. Harper was worth 0.3 fWAR more with 185 more PAs and is going to be 10 times as expensive. If the front office makes that sort of move I'll lambast them for being stupid because that would be a terrible use of resources. Like wise the aforementioned Brantley was worth 0.3 fWAR more in 121 more PAs. He's probably only 5x more expensive in FA. And keep in mind people seem to think this was a bad year for Schwarber. What's a "everything goes right" type year look like?

That's why I'll sit here and sing his praises. The fact that we're even having a conversation with him and Happ in the same tier is unfathomable to me. Schwarber walked more in terms of bb%, he struck out less, his iso was higher, his BABIP was lower, he hit for a higher average, he had a higher OBP, he had a better slugging%, he had a better wRC+, he had a better wOBA, his BsR stat on fangraphs was higher, in the OF this year Happ was -7 DRS and -5.6 UZR/150, Schwarber was +2 DRS and 14 UZR/150. If you just narrow that down to LF for Happ albeit only 276.0 innings he was +1 DRS and 12.4 UZR/150. In other words, Schwarber was better in pretty much any metric you want to use in 2018. Schwarber is basically a few changes vs LHP away from being a 4+ win player. Happ is a few changes away from being an average MLB player at around 2 wins.

I get that people think the team needs more of a lead off hitter vibe and frankly I agree but trading away Schwarber isn't making the team better. They are going to need to get that out of CF, RF or 2B and shuffle the various players around accordingly.

I'd stick with Schwarber for another year, too. I still think there's MVP-type magic in that bat but we haven't seen yet, for whatever reason.

 

[CSF77]

Decline Hamels option and resign him to a 2/28, give him a full no-trade

If you decline the option on Hamels, the Rangers pay the six million. In this scenario, the Cubs get Hamels for two years and Hamels makes decent money (he'd actually make 2/34 where as the Cubs exercise the option, he only makes 20 million in 2019). He was the reason team stayed a float in the second half and with the question marks with Darvish and Chatwood, there is simply no way to let him walk out the door.

I really just either cut or resign. I doubt they get tricky.

In general they are retaining Joe. They will fund him a play off quality team. Even if it goes over.

Here is my hard line guess.

They resign Chavez and Hamels. Both for 1 year.

That sets the rotation at Lester/Hendricks/Hamels/Darvish/Qutania

They need to add a stable closer. This will be viewed as a luxury. They will address with Morrow and Strop. Cishek and Chavez were providing stability in injury. Smyly replaces Wilson. 5 guys and then they can make minor adjustments. My personal idea is Holland on a incentive deal. Would pay off.

Then the biggest issue. Retool the O.

CF would have to be a platoon or Heyward and Almora. Both together is a net loss.

Schwarber is trending right. Have to sit on him.

Happ...Who knows he has looked like Schwarber's trend. 3 fWAR in full time could be in reach.

I personally would want a corner OF here. I need an O force. So Harper is my guy.

Now in the infield I'm happy with Bryant/Baez/Zobrist/Russell/Contreras

Bote and LaStella are fine. They need a UI that can play SS and a back up catcher. Contreras was over used.

So: Major: Resign Cole and Harper.
Minor: Chavez/Holland (if under 8 mil)/SS/C

I'm not really a huge fan of Manny honestly. That forces Bryant to the OF.

 

[beckdawg]

Decline Hamels option and resign him to a 2/28, give him a full no-trade

If you decline the option on Hamels, the Rangers pay the six million. In this scenario, the Cubs get Hamels for two years and Hamels makes decent money (he'd actually make 2/34 where as the Cubs exercise the option, he only makes 20 million in 2019). He was the reason team stayed a float in the second half and with the question marks with Darvish and Chatwood, there is simply no way to let him walk out the door.

I strongly doubt the cubs would do that because it's pretty bad faith toward the rangers. If the cubs don't want to pay $20 mil on Hamels option they will likely just offer him an extension instead. That essentially voids the option year leaving the rangers not on the hook. If Hamels actually wants to be back like he said I could imagine them re-signing him to like 3 year $36 mil or something along those lines. That way it doesn't fuck over the rangers who the cubs have a good relationship with, it gives Hamels a bit of money he didn't already have and it gives the cubs more flexibility this coming year.

 

[Probie2429]

Key for the Cubs is the FO greenlighting going over the luxury tax this offseason. This is a major market and a team that is selling out games with high demand. They can afford it and thus they can go after one of Machado/Harper if they wish. TV deal should be coming soon anyway.

 

[Probie2429]

I'm not gonna predict that the Cubs sign Wainwright, but they will at least put feelers out. He like Verlander and Hamels needs a change of scenery.

 

[kapooncha]

I'm not gonna predict that the Cubs sign Wainwright, but they will at least put feelers out. He like Verlander and Hamels needs a change of scenery.

I'm still pissed Cubs couldn't get Verlander. That would have changed everything for us.

 

[CSF77]

I strongly doubt the cubs would do that because it's pretty bad faith toward the rangers. If the cubs don't want to pay $20 mil on Hamels option they will likely just offer him an extension instead. That essentially voids the option year leaving the rangers not on the hook. If Hamels actually wants to be back like he said I could imagine them re-signing him to like 3 year $36 mil or something along those lines. That way it doesn't fuck over the rangers who the cubs have a good relationship with, it gives Hamels a bit of money he didn't already have and it gives the cubs more flexibility this coming year.

I agree. That was supposed to quote. 20 mil is borderline on his 2018 overall. But in his stint in the NL it is good value.

I’m still on board with retention

 

[CSF77]

I'm still pissed Cubs couldn't get Verlander. That would have changed everything for us.

I don’t think that they were serious then. But the translated success pushed the Hamels deal. Honestly for what they traded it was a steal.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not gonna predict that the Cubs sign Wainwright, but they will at least put feelers out. He like Verlander and Hamels needs a change of scenery.

Why would they bother? They are 8 deep as is before touching the first AAA arm. This idea is a complete waste of payroll.

 

[CSF77]

Key for the Cubs is the FO greenlighting going over the luxury tax this offseason. This is a major market and a team that is selling out games with high demand. They can afford it and thus they can go after one of Machado/Harper if they wish. TV deal should be coming soon anyway.

If they go over it would be either for Harper or Machado.

Manny would be for 3B to move Bryant to the OF. If that happened then they would have to trade Schwarber. That is a lesser chance and would be reactive.

Now if I’m concerned with Bryant then I would rather save and sign Beltre and move Bryant to left as needed.

Harper makes the most sense then platoon CF with Heyward and Almora

SP wise hold the deck and push excess into MR. Chatwood/Smyly/Montgomery/Chavez. Last 4 Morrow/Cishek/Strop. Now Edwards I would trade. Sign Holland. That way I have 4 guys that have closer exposure. We saw how fast you lose that.

Just leaves a back up catcher and SS. Schwarber is fine in LF with Harper in RF. If they signed Beltre then they could move Bryant to LF as needed.

This really opens up Happ/Cartiani/Edwards up for deals.