I am not so sure. Do you think the Cubs are willing to go over the caps?
I know you're not asking me this but I feel like chiming in. I think it depends on what you mean by willing to go over the cap because that's a rather vague statement. In the strictest definition I have 0 doubt they are willing to go over the cap. they did it in 2016 if memory serves though only barely. The better question is how far are they willing to go over the cap? Personally I believe they wont go above $246 mil this year or $40 mil over the luxury tax in any given year. I don't believe any team will do that because the penalties are even more severe if you are that far over costing an additional 42.5% tax for one year over and 45% any further year plus you lose 10 spots on your top pick unless your top 6.
Another questions that is better is how long would they go over the cap? The normal luxury tax penalty starts at 20% goes to 30% year to and 50% year 3. I'm not 100% sure where i feel they fall on this. I sorta think they aren't going to just be the yankees and eat that penalty. I think they'd be smarter and stagger deals to give them a year off every once and a while. Realistically if you're smart about the deals you take I think large market teams can make one big ticket signing every other year. Most big deals are 6-7 years so by the third time doing this typically the first guy you sign to one of these deals is out.
With that being said, I think around the time Bryant and other start getting paid you're going to have to have a reset year or two to retool a bit. Simply put they have too many good players all going to hit FA within a short window. Some of them are going to have to go. But if you draft well and potentially deal the right guys for the right return before they hit FA I think you can sustain for quite awhile.
A lot of people don't like their farm system but personally i think that's a bit short sighted. They don't have any huge stars but they have a ridiculous amount of useful guys who probably are going to make it to the majors. And the thing people fail to take into account is some percentage of guys who make the majors are going to out play their tools. Just as an off the top of my head example, no one thought Jose Ramirez was going to be a top 10 player in baseball.
Their pitching is in a lot better place than their hitting. They really had quality arms from A-AA this year at every spot in a rotation. Most of it is guys who will fall some where between Alec Mills and Kyle Hendricks rather than true top of the rotation types but they do have a number of guys who were below A ball with real talent. Albertos lost his command totally but the stuff was still there. That's what is crazy about his season because he had 38 k's in 30.1 innings which is a 11.28 k/9. Problem was he had an ungodly 65 walks in those same innings for a 19.28 bb/9. While that is clearly troubling to an extent it's easy to forget he's still 19 and doesn't turn 20 until next month. Marquez could be a top of the rotation type arm if everything pans out. And Richard Gallardo who they just signed as an IFA is really interesting.
As for their bats, I don't see much more than bench players out of AA/AAA unless Eddy Martinez breaks out and I'm not holding my breath there. They got some potential starters in A/A+ though most aren't likely stars. It's really Miguel Amaya, Aramis Ademan, Brennen Davis, Cole Roederer, Nelson Velazquez and some of the other 2015 IFA signing class your looking at as being the next window. Davis and Roderer if they put it together can be stars. Amaya is a really interesting C prospect. Ademan doesn't necessarily strike me as a star but could be a solid regular. Velazquez I need to see more on but the guy has big power and interesting tools.
