Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[Probie2429]

Does Beltre intend to play next season? I would have to think it's either retire or play with the Rangers again.

 

[CSF77]

Does Beltre intend to play next season? I would have to think it's either retire or play with the Rangers again.

Prettty sure he said he would wave his no trade to play with the Cubs last year. It would be a Bote upg/insurance deal if they did.

As far as possible retirement …

"No," Beltre said. "I'm not thinking about next year yet. That's going to be in the offseason."

He seems on the fence honestly. He would have to have a chance at a ring to resign with Tex. If they are in transition that is not happening.

 

[CSF77]

After Colorado eliminated Chicago from the playoffs Tuesday, Cubs reliever Jesse Chavez reportedly declared to teammates, “If I’m not wearing this [uniform] next year, I’m done.” Whether the pending free agent, 35, still feels that way is unclear, but he did tell Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required), “I’m open-minded to anything,” with regard to a potential role on next year’s Cubs. Joining the Cubs, who acquired him from the Rangers in July, enabled Chavez to participate in the playoffs for the first time in his long career, Mooney notes. “This has been one of my favorite places to come since I broke into the league,” Chavez said to Mooney, and he went on to laud the Cubs’ “atmosphere, the history, the culture, the clubhouse, the stands, the fans.” That’s important, Mooney opines, writing that “Wrigley Field is not for everyone and you have to recognize who can handle it.” Chavez proved capable of handling it in 2018, as the right-hander recorded a microscopic 1.15 ERA with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (9.7 K/9, 1.2 BB/9) in 39 innings after Chicago picked him up.

This should be a done deal.

The Cubs project to be very deep in starting pitching options in 2019, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes, with the obvious caveat that several of those arms will have to rebound from injury-filled or just ineffective seasons. “We’re not looking to get rid of starting pitchers,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said. “We’re looking to have as much depth as possible so we can withstand multiple injuries.” As the team is expected to exercise their club option on Cole Hamels, Chicago will have Hamels, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, swingman Mike Montgomery, Yu Darvish looking to get healthy, Tyler Chatwood looking to improve on his brutal 2018 numbers, and Drew Smyly in his first full season recovered from Tommy John surgery. It makes for quite a surplus if all those arms are healthy and productive, though that would be a problem the Cubs would certainly be happy to face if it occurs.

Again Hamels is a done deal and the surplus will end up pushed into other situations.

In Cubs news, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat took an early look at the questions Theo Epstein and company need to address this offseason. The Cubs fell from first in runs scored to eighth in the second half, but exactly where in the lineup they’ll look to upgrade is as of yet unclear. Perhaps the easiest way to improve the offense is to get Kris Bryant’s shoulder back in good form, as the former NL MVP was in and out of the lineup for much of the second half with shoulder soreness. For now, the plan is to avoid surgery and hope that a longer offseason than usual helps the healing process.

This to me is a area of concern. Going into the season I feel that they will need to protect themselves at 3B.

Strop’s $6.25MM option seems like a more straightforward decision. On Strop, Epstein was extraordinarily complimentary of his longtime setup man (Twitter links via Wittenmyer), calling him “such a big part of the heartbeat of this team” and lauding the way in which he pitched through pain when returning from a “four to six week injury” in roughly half that time frame. As for injured closer Brandon Morrow, the Cubs are “very comfortable” with him as the team’s primary closer next season and will “commit again to a very structured role with him” in an effort to maintain his health.

This seems settled.


So looking at the main issues:

Back up 3B.

Russell: 40 game suspension. He would return in May.

As a F/A answer: Marwin González. He would cover most areas of concern next year. 3B/SS/2B/LF

At that point they could target the line up and make changes from a position of strength.

wRC+
Baez: 131
Rizzo: 125
Bryant: 125
Zobrist: 123
Schwarber: 115
Happ: 106
Contreras: 100
Heyward: 99
Bote: 95
Almora: 89
LaStella: 86
Russell: 80
Caratini:65

They need a back up catcher. Contreras played too much. Nick Hundley IMO is a solid back up. 91 wRC+
Gonzalez would replace Russell. 104 wRC+

LaStella and Almora as bench rolls. They are both below ML average.

Bryant being healthy should alone fix the line up IMO. removing the weakest links also improves the over all team.

It really comes down to if they trust Happ and Schwarber playing everyday or trading them.

 

[beckdawg]

Back up 3B.

Not sure that's really an issue. Baez can play 3B. Presumably if they sign Machado he can as well. Russell if he's back will be available by May. In my eyes if Bryant is hurt you're looking at a different 2B as you just move Baez to 3B. But ultimately that's another reason I sign Machado not Harper.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure that's really an issue. Baez can play 3B. Presumably if they sign Machado he can as well. Russell if he's back will be available by May. In my eyes if Bryant is hurt you're looking at a different 2B as you just move Baez to 3B. But ultimately that's another reason I sign Machado not Harper.

I don’t see them going after Manny

If they invest it should go towards Hamels and Chavez.

They need insurance not a starter in the IF. If they were thinking on trading Baez and signing Manny that is one thing. Pushing Baez off SS for a worse SS is questionable. But when your best 2 hitter play Manny’s spot and the next 2 best players on play the other 2 spots.

If you really want to look at 2 spots for upgrades it would be in the OF.

Heyward is untradable. So that is locked up. Schwarber is getting into arb so now might be a prime time to deal. I personally believe Brantley is the correct move to solidify the lead off. Happ covers many positions so he have more over all value to Joe. Kyle is a log in LF

 

[CSF77]

But if you were thinking Manny at 3B and Bryant to LF that would be a thing. But I believe that 30!mil could be used more effectively

 

[anotheridiot]

But if you were thinking Manny at 3B and Bryant to LF that would be a thing. But I believe that 30!mil could be used more effectively

I know they say Bryant is happy to play anywhere, but he looks stiff and worried in the outfield. You are trying to return an MVP to that level and I believe part of that is Bryant at third base. Infielders are always more in tune with the game than outfielders. To me, this is not much different than ANY shortstop that was moved from Shortstop. They say draft the SS because they can play anywhere, they are mostly known as the best player on the team thru development, so it is a shot to the ego when they get moved to a lesser position In this case, the place they tried to hide Schwarber. Let them keep playing with Bote going out there and finding more spots to play.

 

[beckdawg]

Projected arb salaries for 2019 https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html

Kris Bryant – $12.4MM
Kyle Hendricks – $7.6MM
Javier Baez – $7.1MM
Addison Russell – $4.3MM
Kyle Schwarber – $3.1MM
Mike Montgomery – $3.0MM
Carl Edwards Jr. – $1.4MM
Tommy La Stella – $1.2MM

 

[beckdawg]

Following up previous comments re machado and only SS....

I apparently had missed this but Jon Heyman said in August he “is willing to play third base for the right team.” Take that for what it is worth.

 

[CSF77]

Following up previous comments re machado and only SS....

I apparently had missed this but Jon Heyman said in August he “is willing to play third base for the right team.” Take that for what it is worth.

That is a vague statement. But KB would have to be moved to the OF to make it happen.

 

[CSF77]

Realistically the White Sox have a better chance. They can offer a mega and have a wave of youth emerging. They sign him and let the team build around. It would be a Lester deal the Cubs made.

 

[kapooncha]

Realistically the White Sox have a better chance. They can offer a mega and have a wave of youth emerging. They sign him and let the team build around. It would be a Lester deal the Cubs made.

Players don't have much interest in playing for the White Sox. Their stadium sucks ass.

 

[brett05]

Not many like the smell of urine, kapooncha is an exception

 

[chibears55]

Realistically the White Sox have a better chance. They can offer a mega and have a wave of youth emerging. They sign him and let the team build around. It would be a Lester deal the Cubs made.

Wave of youth emerging????

Who??

When?

Machado not going to sign with a rebuilding team that probably 2 to 3 yrs away at least

That would be a terrible waste for the Sox to pay that kind of money now, when their not even close to competing

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Wave of youth emerging????

Who??

When?

Machado not going to sign with a rebuilding team that probably 2 to 3 yrs away at least

That would be a terrible waste for the Sox to pay that kind of money now, when their not even close to competing

the White Sox are a lot closer than you think. I don't think they'll break through in 2019 necessarily, the loss of Kopech is going to hurt, but if you don't see that they're close then you aren't paying attention. Plus in thst division competing could come earlier than expected. Moncada IS going to have a breakthrough season, they do have some pitching already and Jimenez should be up in late April. With a few additions they could easily be .500 or better next year. Now all that said I can't see the White Sox inking a $300 mil player but who knows?

If I'm them though I would be active in FA. That division is too weak not to try, especially when you're only talking money.

 

[anotheridiot]

I am not sure Machado would take a deal without a full no trade clause that the sox would want to offer. Its too easy to expect to be able to flip the guy who is now under control for a big haul.

I do think they fixed sux park when they cut out the big holes in the wall behind home plate, the ball jumps there and is prime for a guy who wants to pad stats, even if it is on a bad team. I just do not think they are going to approach the 200 million it is going to take when they cant sell half the seats unless the cubs are playing there. If you think thats wrong, it took 182 to get Heyward three years ago.

 

[chibears55]

the White Sox are a lot closer than you think. I don't think they'll break through in 2019 necessarily, the loss of Kopech is going to hurt, but if you don't see that they're close then you aren't paying attention. Plus in thst division competing could come earlier than expected. Moncada IS going to have a breakthrough season, they do have some pitching already and Jimenez should be up in late April. With a few additions they could easily be .500 or better next year. Now all that said I can't see the White Sox inking a $300 mil player but who knows?

If I'm them though I would be active in FA. That division is too weak not to try, especially when you're only talking money.

Dont know how you think that their close and going to be 20 games better and play. 500 ball...

Moncada was supposed to break out this year, not saying the kid dont have potential, but.....

Their best player outside of Abreu who will be 32, is Anderson and he still figuring things out..

Outside of Lopez, the pitching has a long way to go .
Talented yes, potential yes

Why i say 3 yrs the earliest
Too many question marks still

 

[beckdawg]

the White Sox are a lot closer than you think. I don't think they'll break through in 2019 necessarily, the loss of Kopech is going to hurt, but if you don't see that they're close then you aren't paying attention. Plus in thst division competing could come earlier than expected. Moncada IS going to have a breakthrough season, they do have some pitching already and Jimenez should be up in late April. With a few additions they could easily be .500 or better next year. Now all that said I can't see the White Sox inking a $300 mil player but who knows?

If I'm them though I would be active in FA. That division is too weak not to try, especially when you're only talking money.

This seems like an overly rosey picture to me. I got nothing against the sox personally. I'm not one of those cubs fans that has to hate the sox. But having said that I don't see anything resembling a sure fire no doubt building block. The 2018 white sox weren't the 2014 cubs as an example. The 2014 cubs won 73 games. The sox won 62.

Rodon, Lopez and Giolito come with prospect hype certainly but nothing in the numbers points to an imminent breakout. They may get there eventually but expecting it in the next two years to me would be setting yourself up for disappointment. As for Moncada, I think he's going to disappoint. This is a guy that had a 30.9% K rate in AA. And the K rate in the majors is going up year to year. Baez has some what proven me wrong this year so it's possible guys can transition but to be honest, I'm not expecting Baez to continue to be as good as he was in 2018. As for Eloy, keep in mind the cubs basically decided to trade him rather than Schwarber. Maybe Eloy doesn't have the same hiccups Schwarber has but that shows that even someone who lays waste to the minors can take time to develop into a premium player.

Personally, I think the sox are probably more like 3-4 years away. The difference between their rebuild and the cubs rebuild is the cubs got Rizzo as the rebuild started and by the time the young guys came up he was a star. They also got Strop and Arrieta in a steal of a deal and Fowler likewise. The cubs also made some shrewd signings like Hammel who they not only rode to wins but also used to get even more young talent.

For me personally to feel like the sox are close you'd have to see them adding infrastructure around these young guys the past few years and that doesn't really seem to be the case. They look like a team that was going to be crappy and knew it so they just tanked the season. I looked on ESPN's FA tracker for the past 2 years and they haven't even signed anyone above $5 mil.

 

[CSF77]

Dont know how you think that their close and going to be 20 games better and play. 500 ball...

Moncada was supposed to break out this year, not saying the kid dont have potential, but.....

Their best player outside of Abreu who will be 32, is Anderson and he still figuring things out..

Outside of Lopez, the pitching has a long way to go .
Talented yes, potential yes

Why i say 3 yrs the earliest
Too many question marks still

Sox can pay him. At the end of the day if they can out leverage other teams that holds weight.

Pitching is their biggest concern. They should have Eloy in LF and Mo at 2B. I would push Anderson to CF then. Pitching wise pull out from Shields. If he takes a reduced that is fine but I would sit on 1-2 year deals. Only 2 guys that I would sit on are Lopez and Rondon. Rather fill in with vets vs posers.

 

[beckdawg]

To get back to the cubs...

Most of the talk about the new tv deal has been about how it impacts FA signings. But I had a different take to think about. Whether we like it or not there's effectively a cap to how much money you can spend in FA. However, there's other areas of the game that aren't regulated, specifically scouting. Fans in general don't really seem to know all that much about scouting. It's sort of nebulous and I think most people just assume it's basically the same between teams. That's why I find what the prospect guys at fangraphs are doing so interesting. They have a podcast where they talk about various scouting subjects and one that comes up often is how teams scout.

To cut to the chase, apparently some teams don't scout below A ball at all. The example they gave was a team like the Mets and point to that as the reason the mets often don't do well in trades. There's also apparently teams like Houston who really doesn't rely on scouting much at all and is super into their analytics. There's also teams apparently like the cubs who don't scout the low minors heavily when in a winning window but can divert resources up and down their org as needed. Anyways, something they mentioned recently was about the yankees doing some things that might not be super cost effective but may provide some marginal benefits. They can do that because they have all the money they need.

That got me to thinking about some of the things the cubs have invested into recently. They started by building a new international facility very early in the process. They then did the same thing with mesa while also working on wrigley. For the most part those endeavors are done. This year they added a second rookie league team in mesa. I think the cubs are going to have the ability to make some really interesting moves if this whole tv network idea works. The thing with scouting in particular is you rarely have enough guys. On any given day a guy can look crappy and you may only see some of these guys once or twice a year. However, if you have more scouts you can see more players more times.

In some regards I think what we've seen the past 6 years is just the steps to get to a top tier franchise. In other words, the tribune company left the team with some glaring stuff that had to be dealt with. And for the most part other than some minor renovations to wrigley that is all done. But I think there's a contrast between what had to be done and what's still possible. They've likely spent large chunks of their operating budget revamping the DSL and rookie league facilities which presumably is largely done now. So, they not only have those resources but likely will have even more to put to use.

It will be really interesting to see where they go with this.