Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

You're assuming he pitches well enough that the cubs want him in their bullpen. My entire point is I don't see that happening. It has nothing to do with him demanding to go to AAA. What I see happening is he's not good enough to make the cubs opening day roster. At that point, you can't option him obviously. So, you either have to release him or you have to DFA him because you have no other options. It's at that point this discussion becomes relevant because the cubs are on the hook regardless for his money. So, is it that outlandish to see them approach him and ask if he'd be willing to accept a AAA assignment especially when we all know most MLB teams don't go through a full season without injuries to their starting rotation?

From his perspective he would have 2 options. Either A) he says fuck that and hopes to find another job in a market that is moving glacially slow(Keuchel is way better and still has no contract) or B) he accepts the assignment and tries to work through his shit knowing that should any of the starting 5 get hurt he'd likely be the odds on favorite to be called up. Would you want to risk not finding a job in this market when you very well might pitch meaningful innings for a playoff team at some point in the 2019 season?

Again that falls under fate and performance. I highly doubt that they put any Merritt into spring training numbers.

They are looking at his command. That is it. If it looks like he is a lost cause. And this is a extremely unlikely decision. Then they can ask him to accept a minor league assignment.

The most likely answer is no.

After that it is on ownership to let him work his way through it. Most likely

Eat the deal. Least likely.

Even then they would have to replace with a league min and they have to weight the value of adding a unproven player over a player gone wild but has been a proven talent.

My opinion is weighed off of these factors and I believe that they would DL Bote after the bean and go 9 and allow time to dictate direction.

 

[beckdawg]

They are looking at his command. That is it. If it looks like he is a lost cause. And this is a extremely unlikely decision. Then they can ask him to accept a minor league assignment.

Why is it extremely unlikely his command is quite poor? This is a guy with a career 4.73 bb/9 who's coming off a year that is far far worse than that. I think it's incredibly likely he wont have good command because he never has. That outcome is far more likely than him suddenly having the command of someone who's a sub 4 bb/9 guy. And let's be blunt here.... do you want a guy with a 4+ bb/9 in your bullpen? I mean it's one thing were he like Edwards who strikes out ~12 guys an inning but he had a 7.38 k/9 last year and is a career 6.26. Now i'm willing to stipulate that goes up in the bullpen but he's not gaining 3-4 k/9 just by going to the bullpen. He might get 2 if he's lucky.

The simple fact of the matter is you have a basically mortal lock of 5 guys to start the season(6 if Morrow progresses quickly) with Edwards, Monty, Brach, Cishek and Strop. They are going to at a minimum carry a second lefty with the odds being it's either Duensing or Xavier Cedeño at the moment. So that's 6. I think it's safe to assume the cubs will run 8 relievers. If Cedeño wins a job and frankly I'd take the over on that happening, you also owe money to Duensing and Kintzler regardless. It's entirely plausible that both of those guys return to 2017 levels and are worthy of a job. It's also entirely plausible that one of the like 30 other relievers the cubs brought to camp stands out. Point here being you can't just pencil Chatwood into the bullpen even if he returns to career norms.

And when Morrow returns there's going to be even less room for him in the bullpen which makes it all the more likely that he wouldn't be someone they keep on the roster. For example, if you know Morrow is progressing well and let's say he's ready 2 weeks into the season you're far more likely to roster someone who has options because you're going to send them down in 2 weeks anyways.

So, frankly I don't really get why you're arguing the case that the cubs will keep him in the bullpen. I think that the chances of that happening are incredibly slim and it only happens if he essentially becomes the guy they bought in FA. If you want to argue it's silly to think he'd accept a AAA assignment that's fine. Like I said I wasn't stating he would I was pondering out loud whether or not he would. But I think having the conversation of what becomes of him when he doesn't make the team is quite prudent because it's overwhelmingly likely IMO.

 

[Castor76]

If you have been in a real one. And I don't mean a food workers one then you will get it. We work under a contract between the players and the owners. Normally a player will not go against the Union contract.

The faster that you understand it iS a vs and not a us thing the better.

Raised with them, Caterpillar.

 

[zack54attack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It happened to him, and Kris Bryant knows top prospects will continue to have their service time manipulated. Seeing MLB Twitter accounts hype these kids doesn't help. "That infuriated me. Stop promoting the guy if you know exactly what's going to happen." <a href="https://t.co/7ONsH9RIZ2">https://t.co/7ONsH9RIZ2</a></p>— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) <a href="https://twitter.com/sahadevsharma/status/1100155306636599296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2019</a></blockquote>
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[CSF77]

Raised with them, Caterpillar.

Then you know.

These players have been screwed over the last 2 CBA's. And this is really not a players vs the Cubs thing. It isn't. What Zack posted on KB is just another outburst on the issue at hand. The owners have been screwing the players for a long time.

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall

Current Value 1-Yr Value Change Debt/Value Revenue Operating Income
#3 Chicago Cubs $2.9 B 8% 15% $457 M $102 M

Just reality here.

The Cubs put up a 457M year. 102 went to operations. 182,406,139 went to payroll. 172,593,861 went to their pockets. Sure tax is a issue here.

 

[chibears55]

Checking in to see if he'll take a short term deal..
[emoji848][emoji848][emoji848]


https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1100187229538996224?s=19

 

[Castor76]

Then you know.

These players have been screwed over the last 2 CBA's. And this is really not a players vs the Cubs thing. It isn't. What Zack posted on KB is just another outburst on the issue at hand. The owners have been screwing the players for a long time.

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall

Current Value 1-Yr Value Change Debt/Value Revenue Operating Income
#3 Chicago Cubs $2.9 B 8% 15% $457 M $102 M

Just reality here.

The Cubs put up a 457M year. 102 went to operations. 182,406,139 went to payroll. 172,593,861 went to their pockets. Sure tax is a issue here.

I have no sympathy for people who hire negotiators and then don't like what was negotiated for them. Hire better negotiators. Have people look at any deal and see how it will screw you. Hire somebody who's an asshole for things like that, like me, and get your best deal. But once you sign your name, shut up and deal with it until it's time for the next deal. It's like the NFL players bitching about concussions and what the league knew. They had people hired to look out for their best interests. Why weren't they talking about concussions 30 years ago? The primary purpose of a helmet and mouthpiece are to protect against concussions. I knew this when I was in high school 25 years ago.

Does the service time thing suck? Yep. Is it MLB's fault? Nope. Blame whomever didn't realize the loophole and agreed to it anyway.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

I have a hard time calling a CBA that gives the players guaranteed contracts, regardless of performance, with no chance for the teams to seek any compensation for lack of performance, "screwing the players". Try insisting on that in the NFL CBA and football would die as a sport. The strike/lockout would never end. Because the NFL owners never got taken to the cleaners on that one, and would never ever agree to it.

You give something, you get something...

-Doug

 

[beckdawg]

I have a hard time calling a CBA that gives the players guaranteed contracts, regardless of performance, with no chance for the teams to seek any compensation for lack of performance, "screwing the players". Try insisting on that in the NFL CBA and football would die as a sport. The strike/lockout would never end. Because the NFL owners never got taken to the cleaners on that one, and would never ever agree to it.

You give something, you get something...

-Doug

The issue is the union screws themselves IMO. They use minor league players and pre-arbitration players as bargaining chips to get more for the big FA's. But that's entirely shortsighted because it largely puts them in situations like the past 2 years where teams realize they can get such better ROI on young rookie deals and the players who are now FA also got screwed because FA's before them sold them down the river....etc.

 

[Castor76]

The issue is the union screws themselves IMO. They use minor league players and pre-arbitration players as bargaining chips to get more for the big FA's. But that's entirely shortsighted because it largely puts them in situations like the past 2 years where teams realize they can get such better ROI on young rookie deals and the players who are now FA also got screwed because FA's before them sold them down the river....etc.

Hence why I have no sympathy for them.

 

[zack54attack]

Arenado got PAID

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Third baseman Nolan Arenado and the Colorado Rockies are finalizing an eight-year, contract extension worth more than $255M, league sources tell ESPN. Deal includes an opt-out after three years, would give Arenado the largest per-year salary of any position player.</p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1100438342213218308?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
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[beckdawg]

Arenado got PAID

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Third baseman Nolan Arenado and the Colorado Rockies are finalizing an eight-year, contract extension worth more than $255M, league sources tell ESPN. Deal includes an opt-out after three years, would give Arenado the largest per-year salary of any position player.</p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1100438342213218308?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Good for him but I'm not sure I would have gave him that much. Good player but I question how good a hitter he is outside Coors. Least now we have the basic framework for a bryant deal. No way he's getting $400 mil as some have suggested.

 

[CSF77]

Hence why I have no sympathy for them.

It is a negotiation. They have to give something up to get something.

It happens even in my job. Career wanted more and sacrificed new hires creating a non career. Thus not eligible for retirement benefits. In other words they have you for 2-5 years working you to death and that time is not counted towards retirement.

The ones who were in negotiations were not going to be affected and they were on the gain side thus the sacrificing of the lamb.

MLB did the same thing. Screwed the new players to benefit the established players. Bit them on the ass.

 

[chibears55]

Good for him but I'm not sure I would have gave him that much. Good player but I question how good a hitter he is outside Coors. Least now we have the basic framework for a bryant deal. No way he's getting $400 mil as some have suggested.

Thing about his deal is the last 5 yrs is a player option..

Teams can kill themselves giving those out for extended length

 

[anotheridiot]

Makes you think about comments that were made towards Mike Trout the end of last season. How he is not around enough promoting baseball in the off season. How about you fine the organizations that should clearly be starting some rookies right out of spring training.

I mean, with all the talk from here about how it was OK to hold Bryant and Schwarber back ever since Fontenot made super 2 status, you would think the majority here are for hurting the little guys. Sounds pretty simple, you make the all star game or top 5 in certain stats amongst the players in your position, or use that almighty WAR number and if you exceed 5 in any of your first three seasons you get a year off of team control, or some type of restricted free agent opportunity.

To me its pretty stupid these places are not tying up their talent when it proves themselves. Like Rizzo, 60 million sounded like alot but he will be grossly underpaid all the years of this deal.

 

[anotheridiot]

Makes you think about comments that were made towards Mike Trout the end of last season. How he is not around enough promoting baseball in the off season. How about you fine the organizations that should clearly be starting some rookies right out of spring training.

I mean, with all the talk from here about how it was OK to hold Bryant and Schwarber back ever since Fontenot made super 2 status, you would think the majority here are for hurting the little guys. Sounds pretty simple, you make the all star game or top 5 in certain stats amongst the players in your position, or use that almighty WAR number and if you exceed 5 in any of your first three seasons you get a year off of team control, or some type of restricted free agent opportunity.

To me its pretty stupid these places are not tying up their talent when it proves themselves. Like Rizzo, 60 million sounded like alot but he will be grossly underpaid all the years of this deal.

 

[CSF77]

Thing about his deal is the last 5 yrs is a player option..

Teams can kill themselves giving those out for extended length

Heyward happens.

 

[zack54attack]

Some NL Central news:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mikolas four-year, $68M extension with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> covers 2020-23. First reported: <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JonHeyman</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@dgoold</a>.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1100469200672309249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
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[fatbeard]

Much appreciated. I’m one of those baseball dinosaurs that relies on the eye test more than the analytics, so I’m sure I’ll have some questions about those too haha. I do think the defensive analytics hold a lot of water, not so much the others

Actually, you should be most skeptical of defensive analytics. Their reliability is definitely up for debate. In regards to offense and pitching, analytics are on a much more solid footing and appear to be quite reliable.

 

[CSF77]

Actually, you should be most skeptical of defensive analytics. Their reliability is definitely up for debate. In regards to offense and pitching, analytics are on a much more solid footing and appear to be quite reliable.

For sure on that. I prefer DRS. UZR150 is good on a fielder's range if you are singling out a metric. Catcher dont bother. Most metrics are off. All you can look at is framing and blocking ability. Arm is a lesser factor now with most teams not built to run.