Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[knoxville7]

Actually, you should be most skeptical of defensive analytics. Their reliability is definitely up for debate. In regards to offense and pitching, analytics are on a much more solid footing and appear to be quite reliable.

I can watch film and figure out if a guy can hit or pitch pretty easily. I can’t watch a game and go off of the 3 defensive plays a guy has and tell if he is better than his peers as easily. Just my opinion. Like I said, I’m a baseball dinosaur that doesn’t rely on the analytics much anyways.

 

[chibears55]

Heyward happens.

Exactly my point

 

[zack54attack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For what it’s worth, my source who is close to Bryce Harper tells me <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dodgers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Dodgers</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cubs</a> were 1st choices all along and he prefers not to sign with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Phillies</a>. I’ve been hearing all winter that Harper does not want to play for Gabe Kapler due to analytics and quirky personality</p>— Randy Miller (@RandyJMiller) <a href="https://twitter.com/RandyJMiller/status/1100510574146961408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
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[Castor76]

He wants to be a Cub so badly.

 

[chibears55]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For what it’s worth, my source who is close to Bryce Harper tells me <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dodgers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Dodgers</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cubs</a> were 1st choices all along and he prefers not to sign with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Phillies</a>. I’ve been hearing all winter that Harper does not want to play for Gabe Kapler due to analytics and quirky personality</p>— Randy Miller (@RandyJMiller) <a href="https://twitter.com/RandyJMiller/status/1100510574146961408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Interesting, I think someone on here said this the other day..lol

He doesn't want to play for Philly or Kapler despite the 10 yr 300+ mil offered and may take a shorter deal elsewhere ..

His preference is either the Dodgers or Cubs

 

[chibears55]

Machado signed
Arenado signed
Harper about to be signed
Trout says to be looking to extend with Angels

All the young big hitters about to be off the board

Teams will most likely be looking to extend their own guys over the next couple seasons

 

[anotheridiot]

7 of the top 50 still unsigned, along with two top pitchers who seem to have no excuse of teams waiting for Harper to decide and possible going for Adam Jones.

I get Harper and Machado holding all the position players futures in limbo, but Keuchel and Kimbrel?

 

[SilenceS]

7 of the top 50 still unsigned, along with two top pitchers who seem to have no excuse of teams waiting for Harper to decide and possible going for Adam Jones.

I get Harper and Machado holding all the position players futures in limbo, but Keuchel and Kimbrel?

Kimbrel isnt going to get the contract he wants. He is in decline. Keuchel is going to be an over pay and will probably end up on the Phillies. He isnt a top of the line starter.

 

[beckdawg]

Sure sounds like Bryant is angling for a contract extension. If they aren't going to go after a Harper or something else I feel like they may as well get it done sooner rather than later.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Sure sounds like Bryant is angling for a contract extension. If they aren't going to go after a Harper or something else I feel like they may as well get it done sooner rather than later.

A contract extension? For a Boras client?

Wouldn't that be a first?

-Doug

 

[brett05]

Sure sounds like Bryant is angling for a contract extension. If they aren't going to go after a Harper or something else I feel like they may as well get it done sooner rather than later.

Based on his interview with Levine I tend to lean that thanks to the Cubs lying to him on making the team from ST, he's headed for sure to FA

 

[beckdawg]

Based on his interview with Levine I tend to lean that thanks to the Cubs lying to him on making the team from ST, he's headed for sure to FA

Would be a fairly petty reason to avoid negotiating with a team. I'm sure it pisses him off but that's the business and there are literally dozens of examples of the other MLB teams doing the same thing to top 5 prospects.

 

[CSF77]

A contract extension? For a Boras client?

Wouldn't that be a first?

-Doug

No. Strasberg.

 

[CSF77]

Would be a fairly petty reason to avoid negotiating with a team. I'm sure it pisses him off but that's the business and there are literally dozens of examples of the other MLB teams doing the same thing to top 5 prospects.

I think it is a over view of a flaw vs a finger point. The Cubs have made him the highest paid at every venture and now have a guideline with Arenado base a extension off of.

The main reason why he wouldn't would be akin to Trout. Shit team not in the play offs with bad contracts and a shit farm. No reason to stay then.

Cubs can go 200M per year. I really don't see a huge issue giving him a quality team to play on.

I can see them locking up Baez, Hendricks and Bryant. Rizzo depends if he rebounds. I'm not sure if they will lock up 1B long term with Bryant potentially taking it over in his 30's.

 

[beckdawg]

So, this is rather unlikely but I had an interesting thought. If we presume the cubs aren't in on harper to the level we would expect because they intend to stay under $246 mil rather than them just not having money there is I believe a novel way around this. From my understanding the luxury tax counts as a percentage of games. That is to say if a guy is making say $10 mil and you acquire him after 2 months of the 5 month season you would only count 60% of his salary toward your luxury tax figure. I'm not 100% sure that is accurate but it seems to be.

If that is the case, what's to stop Harper sitting out until june or july? The money seems fine for the cubs after 2019. It seems like it's just a case of 2019 being the road block presumably because of the luxury tax. The other interesting thing is if he does sit out until after the june draft the QO pick tied to him goes away. And the other bit of interesting wiggle room from a cubs perspective is typically you keep some money until june/july for in season moves. So, that would in theory be money they have now but would typically be unwilling to spend because you never know what could happen by july. But if Harper were sitting there a FA in july.... it would effectively be like trading for a big player.

 

[chibears55]

Phillies about to back out on Harper

https://twitter.com/StevePhillipsGM/status/1100821644308856832?s=19

 

[chibears55]

So, this is rather unlikely but I had an interesting thought. If we presume the cubs aren't in on harper to the level we would expect because they intend to stay under $246 mil rather than them just not having money there is I believe a novel way around this. From my understanding the luxury tax counts as a percentage of games. That is to say if a guy is making say $10 mil and you acquire him after 2 months of the 5 month season you would only count 60% of his salary toward your luxury tax figure. I'm not 100% sure that is accurate but it seems to be.

If that is the case, what's to stop Harper sitting out until june or july? The money seems fine for the cubs after 2019. It seems like it's just a case of 2019 being the road block presumably because of the luxury tax. The other interesting thing is if he does sit out until after the june draft the QO pick tied to him goes away. And the other bit of interesting wiggle room from a cubs perspective is typically you keep some money until june/july for in season moves. So, that would in theory be money they have now but would typically be unwilling to spend because you never know what could happen by july. But if Harper were sitting there a FA in july.... it would effectively be like trading for a big player.

Doubt he would sit out 3 months just to save the cubs money ....

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Doubt he would sit out 3 months just to save the cubs money ....

No, but if he really wants to play for either the Cubs or the Dodgers (as has been reported), and neither can manage the 2019 bump but can deal with a 10-year, $330 million contract beyond this year, that would enable him to sign for a team he wants to spend 10 years with by giving them the flexibility needed to do it.

If it's that or a pillow contract and try again next year, I'd do the wait-out game.

-Doug

 

[beckdawg]

Doubt he would sit out 3 months just to save the cubs money ....

Like I said it's rather unlikely but we're basically in March already and it seems obvious he's not happy with the teams after him presently. And there's reports and the obvious flirtation with the cubs prior to the offseason. Keep in mind this a guy who enrolled in a community college at 17 to get to the majors sooner. He's clearly not opposed to doing unusual things to get what he wants.

 

[chibears55]

Like I said it's rather unlikely but we're basically in March already and it seems obvious he's not happy with the teams after him presently. And there's reports and the obvious flirtation with the cubs prior to the offseason. Keep in mind this a guy who enrolled in a community college at 17 to get to the majors sooner. He's clearly not opposed to doing unusual things to get what he wants.

Still think he ends up a cub