Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[SilenceS]

I don't particularly see why philly has any better shot at Trout than any of the other likely suitors. But even if they do, would people be that upset should the cubs land Lindor in 2 years? I mean he's the prototypical lead off hitter the cubs have been missing since Fowler left who just so happen to hit 38 HRs last year and who also may be the best defensive SS in the league. You pair him with Baez and that's a pretty crazy pair up the middle.

Baez wants an extension and he is worth over a 100 million as it stands. I don’t see it.


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[knoxville7]

4.48 BB/9 is a issue going forward. 3.13 FIP Edwards 2.93. Strop 3.43. Morrow 2.97. Cishek 3.45

I would rank on pure stuff Edwards 1 and Morrow #2 then Kimbrel. Edwards had major command issues. 5.54 BB/9 pretty much screwed him. But looking at it from a uninhabitable mark he is right there and keeping in zone makes him a force.

I just see it as they need to stick with more command types in the pen.

BB/9:
Morrow: 2.64
Montgomery: 2.83
Strop: 3.17
Cishek: 3.58
Kintzler: 4.50
Edwards: 5.43
Duesing: 6.93
Chatwood: 8.25

New guys:
Cedeno: 4.32
Brach: 4.02
Barnette: 1.71

So I can see them targeting this a bit already.

Right..so you claim kimbrel is too wild, but Edwards was even more wild. Morrow can’t be counted on due to health reasons...so when I say kimbrel would step in as our best reliever for 2019, should we sign him...I’m not really wrong or far off. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they will sign kimbrel, or even should depending on the contract. Just that if they could get him on a 1 or 2 year deal, it would be worth considering

 

[beckdawg]

Baez wants an extension and he is worth over a 100 million as it stands. I don’t see it.


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Why? The only money the cubs have committed for sure in 2022 is Heyward(2 @ $22) and maybe Darvish($19/18). I imagine between those two and Bryant, Contreras and Baez you get to ~$100 mil in a given season. Obviously a lot depends on where you go pitching wise but i'd be really surprised if the cubs aren't able to pull their 4th/5th starters internally. And given how cheap Nola was locked up for I don't expect Hendricks to be that pricey especially with his skillset. So assuming Darvish doesn't opt out you'd be looking for one starter, and you'd need to figure out LF, 1B and CF assuming you sign Lindor and you likely have 75-80 mil to play with.

 

[SilenceS]

Why? The only money the cubs have committed for sure in 2022 is Heyward(2 @ $22) and maybe Darvish($19/18). I imagine between those two and Bryant, Contreras and Baez you get to ~$100 mil in a given season. Obviously a lot depends on where you go pitching wise but i'd be really surprised if the cubs aren't able to pull their 4th/5th starters internally. And given how cheap Nola was locked up for I don't expect Hendricks to be that pricey especially with his skillset. So assuming Darvish doesn't opt out you'd be looking for one starter, and you'd need to figure out LF, 1B and CF assuming you sign Lindor and you likely have 75-80 mil to play with.

Until the Cubs can produce pitching, they are going to have to pay for it. Bryant is going to command a 250 plus million contract whether he is here or not. Baez you can get for a 100 million or more, but if he comes out and continues to get better. You are talking another superstar pay day. Our farm needs to grow for us to be able to have flexibility. Right now, its no where close.

 

[beckdawg]

Until the Cubs can produce pitching, they are going to have to pay for it. Bryant is going to command a 250 plus million contract whether he is here or not. Baez you can get for a 100 million or more, but if he comes out and continues to get better. You are talking another superstar pay day. Our farm needs to grow for us to be able to have flexibility. Right now, its no where close.

They should have no trouble founding 4th/5th pitcher types with the group they have between A and AA right now. You have easy 10 guys who could be MLB pitchers. Now sure none of them is likely to be an ace but you're gonna get something out of them just by sheer volume.

 

[DanTown]

The problem with Kimbrel is giving up draft picks to sign relievers is often a fool's errand; especially if it's short term. Think of Greg Holland last year. Obviously I doubt Kimbrel is that bad but don't chase relievers. Jesse Chavez was just as good as him the last two months of the year and cost WAAAAY less in terms of prospect given up and dollars.

 

[knoxville7]

The problem with Kimbrel is giving up draft picks to sign relievers is often a fool's errand; especially if it's short term. Think of Greg Holland last year. Obviously I doubt Kimbrel is that bad but don't chase relievers. Jesse Chavez was just as good as him the last two months of the year and cost WAAAAY less in terms of prospect given up and dollars.

The giving up draft picks is a very legit reason to not do it. Jesse Chavez isn’t anywhere near as good as kimbrel, however

 

[SilenceS]

The problem with Kimbrel is giving up draft picks to sign relievers is often a fool's errand; especially if it's short term. Think of Greg Holland last year. Obviously I doubt Kimbrel is that bad but don't chase relievers. Jesse Chavez was just as good as him the last two months of the year and cost WAAAAY less in terms of prospect given up and dollars.

Kimbrel numbers suggest he is on the down turn and with how wishy washy relievers are with velocity's. I agree with you. Mariano was an exception because he had one pitch until the day he retired. Thats a rare occurrence.

 

[Castor76]

Actually, given that half of all first round picks are straight up busts, giving up a pick is nothing.

Bryant, if he really is willing to go extension. I offer a 10/276 to overwrite his current deal. Pay him 15M this season as "make up" for the late call up. The final 9 at 18/24/30/36/36/36/36/25/20.

Baez - Wouldn't look to sign to an extension until late June at the earliest. If he's putting up All-Star number again, I'd try for a 7y/146M at 9/14/21/28/28/28/28.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs most likely address this mid season if necessary.

I would much rather status que it and give opertunity to Alozay to break into the majors later on as a relief.

I'm not concerned with this and over paying on a decline kills you.

 

[anotheridiot]

Actually, given that half of all first round picks are straight up busts, giving up a pick is nothing.

Bryant, if he really is willing to go extension. I offer a 10/276 to overwrite his current deal. Pay him 15M this season as "make up" for the late call up. The final 9 at 18/24/30/36/36/36/36/25/20.

Baez - Wouldn't look to sign to an extension until late June at the earliest. If he's putting up All-Star number again, I'd try for a 7y/146M at 9/14/21/28/28/28/28.

Given Bryant will be 30 when he reaches free agency, he would almost need to take an extension deal to get that number up. I dont think he is counting on 35 million being the mark of a good player per year.

The thing with Baez, is they probably had a shot to do a rizzo deal this off season and could have probably gotten 5/60 range. Another strong year and that number will go to 146 or worse yet, expect the Machado deal. Javy is alot like Rizzo, he spends his money on dog shelters in puerto rico. He will still be worth 12 million per season easy just for his glove. Look at what has been acceptable for Heyward.

To me, that is the biggest reason to move Heyward, because eventually, the guys producing more will expect to be paid more.

 

[TL1961]

I wonder if Kimbrel at this point would take a 1 or 2 year deal. The bullpen is still my biggest concern, and he would give us a legit closer this year

I keep hoping for a surprise move on Kimbrel by the Cubs just as you suggest. He’s not getting what he expects. On one hand, it seems like a really good move for the Cubs but for a guy like Kimbrel, he may need to lock up more long-term. a two-year deal could be the worst thing for a pitcher his age.

 

[TL1961]

Giving up pics doesn’t become nothing simply because there is a bust rate.

if the bust rate is 50% and you give up 50% of your first round picks, now you’re at the one in four a shot of getting somebody in the first round.

You can’t build teams like that.

 

[anotheridiot]

Giving up pics doesn’t become nothing simply because there is a bust rate.

if the bust rate is 50% and you give up 50% of your first round picks, now you’re at the one in four a shot of getting somebody in the first round.

You can’t build teams like that.

But if you are a top team and end up with your first round pick being 25 or later every year, its basically a compensatory pick anyway. Its not like a top 5 guy is not being chosen.

Football is different, because most of the top 90 players picked in the draft are actually on a professional roster, but the bears gave up two first round picks to get Mack, and its not like they are going to be franchise changing players like if they are top 5 picks. (yes, there are cases like Eddie Jackson who would have been there if not for a serious injury that you pick up later) but there are still the few like Tom Brady and Russell wilson , or Mookie Betts in this conversation that was a 5th round pick that can throw it all out of balance. But that is why you invest millions in scouting.

 

[CSF77]

Given Bryant will be 30 when he reaches free agency, he would almost need to take an extension deal to get that number up. I dont think he is counting on 35 million being the mark of a good player per year.

The thing with Baez, is they probably had a shot to do a rizzo deal this off season and could have probably gotten 5/60 range. Another strong year and that number will go to 146 or worse yet, expect the Machado deal. Javy is alot like Rizzo, he spends his money on dog shelters in puerto rico. He will still be worth 12 million per season easy just for his glove. Look at what has been acceptable for Heyward.

To me, that is the biggest reason to move Heyward, because eventually, the guys producing more will expect to be paid more.

Bryant thought the Arendo was a lot. 32.5 is not a bad mark. Cubs should take that cue and offer a 10 year extend covering this year. So if you think about it 10/300 would be a legitimate offer right now. Cover 3 arb years and 7 F/A years. 32.5M would be a good AAV covering the last 7 but scale up over the 3 controlled years. If he wanted til 40 IMO mutual options added or more in line with Harper's 25. IMO Bryant seems more locked into the higher AAV.

 

[Castor76]

Giving up pics doesn’t become nothing simply because there is a bust rate.

if the bust rate is 50% and you give up 50% of your first round picks, now you’re at the one in four a shot of getting somebody in the first round.

You can’t build teams like that.

It becomes nothing because the bust rate is so high, especially in the latter part of the first round. It's part of my argument with being afraid of the 10 spot drop for CBT penalty. There's a higher chance of success for picks 31-40 versus 21-30. If you're signing a Type-A free agent, you're supposed to be getting a proven MLB talent. You might overpay versus what production you get, but you're buying known product.

 

[CSF77]

It becomes nothing because the bust rate is so high, especially in the latter part of the first round. It's part of my argument with being afraid of the 10 spot drop for CBT penalty. There's a higher chance of success for picks 31-40 versus 21-30. If you're signing a Type-A free agent, you're supposed to be getting a proven MLB talent. You might overpay versus what production you get, but you're buying known product.

I wouldn't concern myself over being pushed back if that move is significant. But it doesn't matter in this case. Tom Ricketts has said plain as day that they are at their budget limit and Jed did minor signings for the pen to eek it all out of him.

This is another tired subject that some fans believe that Tom is lying to them and budgets are imaginaries vs realities.

 

[Castor76]

I wouldn't concern myself over being pushed back if that move is significant. But it doesn't matter in this case. Tom Ricketts has said plain as day that they are at their budget limit and Jed did minor signings for the pen to eek it all out of him.

This is another tired subject that some fans believe that Tom is lying to them and budgets are imaginaries vs realities.

Don't get me wrong. Other than Harper, there isn't a FA who interested me and I get the Cubs not signing him and their reasons. I was just talking about how the loss of the 1st round pick shouldn't prevent a team from making a signing. I don't like the rule and think a team should simply get compensatory picks, but that's another argument.

 

[CSF77]

Don't get me wrong. Other than Harper, there isn't a FA who interested me and I get the Cubs not signing him and their reasons. I was just talking about how the loss of the 1st round pick shouldn't prevent a team from making a signing. I don't like the rule and think a team should simply get compensatory picks, but that's another argument.

Getting rid of that would be worth a time clock on pitching. That would be a fair CBA trade off.

 

[anotheridiot]

I wouldn't concern myself over being pushed back if that move is significant. But it doesn't matter in this case. Tom Ricketts has said plain as day that they are at their budget limit and Jed did minor signings for the pen to eek it all out of him.

This is another tired subject that some fans believe that Tom is lying to them and budgets are imaginaries vs realities.

It was pretty simple to me, get Harper and lose Bryant, Rizzo or Baez, possibly 2/3. I guess our cub fans are not to attached to them since we should have position players set for the next 5 years, but somehow they want them to be replaced for a bigger name.