Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[TL1961]

Schwarber is not a bad LF.

He is servicable as your third best OF in LF. But in the scenario suggested he would have been in RF as the #2. Not a good plan.

All moot.

 

[TL1961]

If Philly unloads Harper in 4 years it won’t matter a bit which team is more attractive to him.

 

[TL1961]

I don't particularly see why philly has any better shot at Trout than any of the other likely suitors. But even if they do, would people be that upset should the cubs land Lindor in 2 years? I mean he's the prototypical lead off hitter the cubs have been missing since Fowler left who just so happen to hit 38 HRs last year and who also may be the best defensive SS in the league. You pair him with Baez and that's a pretty crazy pair up the middle.

That would be one helluva dynamic infield pair. And the corners don’t suck.

 

[Castor76]

If all offers are equal, I'd say Philly has the inside track on Trout. But when are all offers ever equal? Right now, I'd put the number at 10/350 as the bar. IIRC, it would be the most in total and AAV.

 

[Omeletpants]

If Philly unloads Harper in 4 years it won’t matter a bit which team is more attractive to him.

full no trade

 

[CSF77]

He is servicable as your third best OF in LF. But in the scenario suggested he would have been in RF as the #2. Not a good plan.

All moot.

You are underrating him.

DRS had him at a 2. up from a -10. UZR150 14.0 up from a 8.8.

GG winner was Corey Dickerson 16 DRS and a 11.9 UZR150

Runner up's: Duvall 17 DRS 11.4 UZR150 and Yelch 0 DRS -5.4 UZR150 (jaded vote system huna)

I think we are good as long as he meets his hitting potential.

 

[CSF77]

If all offers are equal, I'd say Philly has the inside track on Trout. But when are all offers ever equal? Right now, I'd put the number at 10/350 as the bar. IIRC, it would be the most in total and AAV.

That doesn't even get the pen out.

 

[RacerX]

Tseng looks like hot garbage. Again.

 

[CSF77]

Or he just might extend with the Angels, which is rumored to being talked about now

Wouldn't be shocking if it happened. Trout seems the loyal type and would do a career. But if that team continues to suck balls don't expect it honestly.
They have made some poor choices as a organization. Paying Pujos that amount when he was in question as a PED user. Especially after he came from nowhere in a questionable STL franchise with a known user (Mac) as the face and LaRussa as the look the other way manager from Oak. and on. STL didn't fight to retain for a reason. Most likely they knew it was juiced and looking at a hard decline. Trout is pretty much clean and natural (allegedly)

 

[CSF77]

Tseng looks like hot garbage. Again.

To qualify as again there has to be a break in the hot garbage part.

 

[CSF77]

Looking over the Phills. They have to be the fav now,

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=phi

4 guys hit 20+ HR. Now 2 hit 30+. If their rotation is stable then that team could wipe up the east. Basically they need a starter. I believe that they are now at 212,975,280. over now. Adding Keuchel 3/60 keeps them under the threshold and lines up their rotation better. After Jake the rotation is rough with youth and a vet lefty would smooth it over and let the kids fight over 2 spots vs 3.

My big issue with them:

Pivetta seems legit. Avg low in IP/G 5.125. But 10.32 k/9 and 2.8 BB/9 he has potential.
Elfin also. 24 games but I'm looking at 5.33 IP/G as a keystone. SO/9 a tad low 8.65 but BB/9 2.6 makes up for it.

Velasquez 4.88 IP/G SO/9 not bad 9.88 but his BB/9 were the rotation worst 3.62. Which impacts his IP/G. He was worse than Jake there and that should be the bar honestly.

So Dallas IMO a good investment. Splits up the righties.

 

[Castor76]

That doesn't even get the pen out.

Trout will be entering his age 29 season then. A deal that would make him the highest paid player will get interest. It would be at best a 50/50 contract of good years versus declining years. Paying him 40 or 45 the first few and then 25-30 in the end would work. I also only called it the bar. Hell, Harper's AAV and details almost have me pissed the Cubs didn't make him a matching offer regardless of any trades they could make in the future this season.

Reality would be going for 6 years and 210-222 M. But if he wants the richest deal in total dollars, 350 is probably the mark.

 

[CSF77]

Trout will be entering his age 29 season then. A deal that would make him the highest paid player will get interest. It would be at best a 50/50 contract of good years versus declining years. Paying him 40 or 45 the first few and then 25-30 in the end would work. I also only called it the bar. Hell, Harper's AAV and details almost have me pissed the Cubs didn't make him a matching offer regardless of any trades they could make in the future this season.

Reality would be going for 6 years and 210-222 M. But if he wants the richest deal in total dollars, 350 is probably the mark.

No. He has pushed 2x the WAR either Manny or Harper did.

10/400 would be a mark that you should really look at with him.

Both Manny and Bryce avg 4.2 WAR over their careers. Both would have been 30M AAV players. Except Bryce took less AAV to get a no trade/career ender.

Bryant IMO would be the gauge for 10/350M in 4 years he has put up 23.1 fWAR. (1 injured) AVG 5.775 fWAR per season. Which in dollar value is 46.2 mil market value. I think that you could justify it with another 7 WAR this year.

Trout has put up 64.7 fWAR over 8 seasons. or 8.09 fWAR avg and that comes up to 64.7mil in market value.

When you really look at it 10/400 is a very realistic number and 350M is a face slap. We are talking about a all time great that has a Mickey Mantle impact on any team.

 

[knoxville7]

I wonder if Kimbrel at this point would take a 1 or 2 year deal. The bullpen is still my biggest concern, and he would give us a legit closer this year

 

[CSF77]

I wonder if Kimbrel at this point would take a 1 or 2 year deal. The bullpen is still my biggest concern, and he would give us a legit closer this year

He has really declined this year and wants top dollar.
i believe his fastball was topping at 98 which is 2 MPH lower. This lead him to increase his curveball usage and the increase walk rates as a result. You would get a Jake Arretta result where you are getting a shade of what you pay for.

 

[knoxville7]

He has really declined this year and wants top dollar.
i believe his fastball was topping at 98 which is 2 MPH lower. This lead him to increase his curveball usage and the increase walk rates as a result. You would get a Jake Arretta result where you are getting a shade of what you pay for.

I understand he’s up there in age and is declining, but for 2019 he would be arguably the best reliever we have. Hence, why I pondered if he would take a 1 or 2 year deal at this point over potentially not playing at all. I mean, the guy did have a WHIP under 1 still last year...so even declining, pretty damn good

 

[Castor76]

No. He has pushed 2x the WAR either Manny or Harper did.

10/400 would be a mark that you should really look at with him.

Both Manny and Bryce avg 4.2 WAR over their careers. Both would have been 30M AAV players. Except Bryce took less AAV to get a no trade/career ender.

Bryant IMO would be the gauge for 10/350M in 4 years he has put up 23.1 fWAR. (1 injured) AVG 5.775 fWAR per season. Which in dollar value is 46.2 mil market value. I think that you could justify it with another 7 WAR this year.

Trout has put up 64.7 fWAR over 8 seasons. or 8.09 fWAR avg and that comes up to 64.7mil in market value.

When you really look at it 10/400 is a very realistic number and 350M is a face slap. We are talking about a all time great that has a Mickey Mantle impact on any team.

The CBT threshold in 2021 is 210 M. That Mickey Mantle impact hasn't lead to much team success. That's what he'll be looking for, IMO. Couple that in with his age by then and it knocks him down. WAR is a nice number, but in no way will determine what he gets paid. A team just couldn't afford to put almost 20% of their payroll in one player.

 

[CSF77]

The CBT threshold in 2021 is 210 M. That Mickey Mantle impact hasn't lead to much team success. That's what he'll be looking for, IMO. Couple that in with his age by then and it knocks him down. WAR is a nice number, but in no way will determine what he gets paid. A team just couldn't afford to put almost 20% of their payroll in one player.

Angles had 11.0 fWAR pitching.(22 out of 30) 24.4 hitting. You take his 9.8 fWAR away the O (14.6) sits with the Royals. ranked #23 out of 30.

You could say that they would have been a 100 loss team with out him with out batting a eye. I wouldn't be wrong saying he alone made them a 80 win team vs a 60 win team.

 

[CSF77]

Well when you pay Pujos 27 Mil for -.2 fWAR you are doing it wrong. and 3/87 left and no trade. Ya they can't add a impact player to help the sunk ship. This makes Heyward look not so bad. They did a 10/240 on Albert and have 8.78 fWAR to show for it. Basically he has been worth 70.24 Mil and has been paid 153mil to date. (losing 11.8 mil per year) Vs Jason 32mil value 58 Mil paid (losing 8.7 Mil per year)

It is deals like that that screw you

 

[CSF77]

I understand he’s up there in age and is declining, but for 2019 he would be arguably the best reliever we have. Hence, why I pondered if he would take a 1 or 2 year deal at this point over potentially not playing at all. I mean, the guy did have a WHIP under 1 still last year...so even declining, pretty damn good

4.48 BB/9 is a issue going forward. 3.13 FIP Edwards 2.93. Strop 3.43. Morrow 2.97. Cishek 3.45

I would rank on pure stuff Edwards 1 and Morrow #2 then Kimbrel. Edwards had major command issues. 5.54 BB/9 pretty much screwed him. But looking at it from a uninhabitable mark he is right there and keeping in zone makes him a force.

I just see it as they need to stick with more command types in the pen.

BB/9:
Morrow: 2.64
Montgomery: 2.83
Strop: 3.17
Cishek: 3.58
Kintzler: 4.50
Edwards: 5.43
Duesing: 6.93
Chatwood: 8.25

New guys:
Cedeno: 4.32
Brach: 4.02
Barnette: 1.71

So I can see them targeting this a bit already.