Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[kapooncha]

Is it bad to average 97 wins a year for 4 years?

So you're okay winning a lot of regular season games and getting bounced in the playoffs?

 

[CSF77]

And Schwarber being gone does what? Look you can throw this idea of change out there but if you're not changing for better players then what's the point? Schwarber was the 21st most valuable OF in terms of fWAR. You're not getting Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Yelich, JD Martinez, Cain, Stanton, Benintendi, Bellinger. You're also probably not getting Aaron Hicks, Mitch Nagiger, Brandon Nimmo, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Starling Marte, and Mallex Smith. Zobrist is already with the cubs. That leaves you with Bryce Harper, Micheal Brantley in FA. The other two names ahead of him are Brian Anderson with the Marlins and Eddie Rosario with the twins. Both are worse hitters than Schwarber. That's why this conversation is dumb. Unless you're signing both Brantley and Harper you're not replacing him with someone who's better and I'd argue even those two aren't necessarily worth the cost to upgrade given the difference in performance and price to pay them.

I think Harper makes more sense as a quasi-CF replacement if you don't want Machado with Heyward going to CF. But the fact of the matter is you're not getting rid of Heyward. He's gonna be with the team. And he's honestly fine in terms of being an OK CF. He would probably have been worth 3 wins this year if he were healthy all year. Compare him and Inciarte who finished with 2.9 fWAR. Heyward's a better hitter in 2018 and maybe a little worse defensively in CF but it's not much.

You can throw out nebulous concepts like they will get 2 new OF's but that's ignoring the reality of what players are realistically out there.

Thinking outside of the box on this:

Yasmani Grandal gave 3.6 WAR. Fell out of favor so I doubt LAD will make a legit run at him and his value might be repressed going in. Fact he didn't start...ya

But a bat first guy that can switch with Contreras to give them more AB's. Now he has time in at 1B vs LF so I'm not sure if it is possible honestly. But I digress here.

Russell Martin: .194/.338/.325. We have that. Not worth the dime.

So thinking bigger here: Say that they do trade Schwarber and ink Grendal and use a catcher swap. Schwarber becomes a big chip in getting a need.

As far as a line up goes I would go back to one that did work:

Almora CF
Heyward RF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Zobrist 2B
Contreras LF/C
Grendal LF/C

Grendal honestly is 29 so 3/60 might be his mark right now with the question marks going on.

Now rotation wise: Just let Texas eat the 6 mil on Hamels and sign him to a 2 year deal. 20M is really not smart. 14M per is.

At that point the largest issue is the pen. And that is where a trade chip like Schwarber pays off. Cubs need a 3rd guy in the pen. Smyly never pitched a pitch and honestly anything you get is bonus at this point.

Jordan Hicks would be lotto winner. But that is the talent that I would gauge.

 

[kapooncha]

Newsflash: 29 teams get bounced or fail to make the playoffs every year.

What is your point?

 

[beckdawg]

Thinking outside of the box on this:

Yasmani Grandal gave 3.6 WAR.

Seems like a stretch to me. Plus, you're not going to get Grandal cheap. C's are super hard to find. Just feels like change for the sake of change. Schwarber is basically the same type of hitter as him already. So you're moving Contreras to LF why?

I obviously don't agree with getting rid of Schwarber but if you're truly going to do it this is what you'd likely do. 1) sign Harper. That's basically non-negotiable IMO. 2) Move Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF. As mentioned, Heywards not going anywhere and you're going to replace 2 OF if you're getting rid of Schwarber. 3) because you no longer have a 3B you also likely have to get either Donaldson or Moustakes with my money being on Moose because it's going to be extremely hard to fit Donaldson and Harper under $246 mil in payroll.

Like I said I don't really agree with this plan because I think you're taking on a shit load of salary for not much gain in value but that's how you'd move Schwarber off the team if you were trying to do that.

 

[kapooncha]

Seems like a stretch to me. Plus, you're not going to get Grandal cheap. C's are super hard to find. Just feels like change for the sake of change. Schwarber is basically the same type of hitter as him already. So you're moving Contreras to LF why?

I obviously don't agree with getting rid of Schwarber but if you're truly going to do it this is what you'd likely do. 1) sign Harper. That's basically non-negotiable IMO. 2) Move Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF. As mentioned, Heywards not going anywhere and you're going to replace 2 OF if you're getting rid of Schwarber. 3) because you no longer have a 3B you also likely have to get either Donaldson or Moustakes with my money being on Moose because it's going to be extremely hard to fit Donaldson and Harper under $246 mil in payroll.

Like I said I don't really agree with this plan because I think you're taking on a shit load of salary for not much gain in value but that's how you'd move Schwarber off the team if you were trying to do that.

What is your plan for winning the 2019 WS? Just do the same thing as in 2017 and 2018?

 

[chibears55]

And Schwarber being gone does what? Look you can throw this idea of change out there but if you're not changing for better players then what's the point? Schwarber was the 21st most valuable OF in terms of fWAR. You're not getting Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Yelich, JD Martinez, Cain, Stanton, Benintendi, Bellinger. You're also probably not getting Aaron Hicks, Mitch Nagiger, Brandon Nimmo, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Starling Marte, and Mallex Smith. Zobrist is already with the cubs. That leaves you with Bryce Harper, Micheal Brantley in FA. The other two names ahead of him are Brian Anderson with the Marlins and Eddie Rosario with the twins. Both are worse hitters than Schwarber. That's why this conversation is dumb. Unless you're signing both Brantley and Harper you're not replacing him with someone who's better and I'd argue even those two aren't necessarily worth the cost to upgrade given the difference in performance and price to pay them.

I think Harper makes more sense as a quasi-CF replacement if you don't want Machado with Heyward going to CF. But the fact of the matter is you're not getting rid of Heyward. He's gonna be with the team. And he's honestly fine in terms of being an OK CF. He would probably have been worth 3 wins this year if he were healthy all year. Compare him and Inciarte who finished with 2.9 fWAR. Heyward's a better hitter in 2018 and maybe a little worse defensively in CF but it's not much.

You can throw out nebulous concepts like they will get 2 new OF's but that's ignoring the reality of what players are realistically out there.

Maybe i heard him differently but Epstein press conference sounded to me like a guy who wasn't happy seeing basically the same offensive struggle 2 years in a row...
Ok
So in order to change that up, it gonna take more then just the 1 addition and hoping everyone else figures it out

 

[beckdawg]

Maybe i heard him differently but Epstein press conference sounded to me like a guy who wasn't happy seeing basically the same offensive struggle 2 years in a row...
Ok
So in order to change that up, it gonna take more then just the 1 addition and hoping everyone else figures it out

You're reading into who he was talking about. Why is that Schwarber? Schwarber went from 103 wRC+ in 2017 to 115 wRC+. His defense improved. He didn't regress. He improved in measurable ways. What I don't get is why people assume Schwarber is gone when Happ clearly played worse. If we're getting rid of people who struggled he got actively worse as a player.

And it's not just "1 change." It's fundamentally how you use those players. They went into 2018 expecting Happ to be their lead off hitter and he clearly disappointed. If you want to argue Schwarber still isn't a good enough hitter I disagree but I'll humor that argument. Do you know how you get better as a team? Instead of solely relying on him to be "the guy" you build in redundancy with players who compliment him. I've said this a bunch but Almora and him are prefect platoon partners. The difference between relying on them to be 1 good OF and relying on Almora/Happ to be viable in CF and Schwarber to solely be viable in LF is enormous.

On top of that, going from someone like Russell to someone like Machado isn't a small change. Machado had a 140 wRC+ this year. Russell had a 80 wRC+. So you're talking about a 60% difference in output. That is a MASSIVE upgrade. Obviously I favor Machado over Harper but the same logic applies if you favor him. And as I've said I'd bring in a back up catcher to lighten the load on Contreras. We know Contreras can hit. But as with the Schwarber/Almora platoon I've mentioned, you build in redundancy to take the pressure off that one player.

Comparing what I outlined to the 2018 opening day roster is a massive difference. The 2018 team expected big play out of an Almora/Happ CF. It expected Schwarber solely to cover LF. It expected Russell solely to cover SS. And it expected solely Contreras to handle C. They had nothing planned if any of those players failed. Contrast that with what I've said. If Schwarber fails to be a good hitter in 2019, you can likely play Zobrist in LF, Heyward in RF and Almora in CF. For that to go bad both Almora and Schwarber have to be bad. At SS, are we betting Machado would be bad? At C, assuming they bring in someone who's a competent backup you're not counting on Contreras to go out there and play 140 games. A real vet back up is totally different than plugging in a rookie Caratini.

And like I said before, it's not like this was an 80 win team. They won 95 games despite all the problems listed above. If you eliminate individual points of failure with redundancy you eliminate a lot of your risk. Is it possible both Almora and Schwarber could be bad? Sure but Almora was playing like a damn all-star in the first half of the season and I've already outlined why I think Schwarber is good. I'm willing to give those two another chance to reach their potential. Could Contreras be bad again? Sure but if at the very least you have a good framing C behind him you can punt that position and go with someone who improves your pitching framing wise. That's how the team would be different.

 

[CSF77]

Seems like a stretch to me. Plus, you're not going to get Grandal cheap. C's are super hard to find. Just feels like change for the sake of change. Schwarber is basically the same type of hitter as him already. So you're moving Contreras to LF why?

I obviously don't agree with getting rid of Schwarber but if you're truly going to do it this is what you'd likely do. 1) sign Harper. That's basically non-negotiable IMO. 2) Move Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF. As mentioned, Heywards not going anywhere and you're going to replace 2 OF if you're getting rid of Schwarber. 3) because you no longer have a 3B you also likely have to get either Donaldson or Moustakes with my money being on Moose because it's going to be extremely hard to fit Donaldson and Harper under $246 mil in payroll.

Like I said I don't really agree with this plan because I think you're taking on a shit load of salary for not much gain in value but that's how you'd move Schwarber off the team if you were trying to do that.

-It is not moving Contreras to LF. It is reducing the work load.

2017: 377 AB .276/.356/.499
2018: 474 AB .249/.339/.390

Apr: .270/.365/.446
May: .273/.369/.500
June: .272/.348/.383
July: .309/.405/.471
Aug: .213/.323/.300
Sep: .159/.232/.254

That is what you call hitting a wall.

Now Grandal will cost less than Harper or Machado. So your argument goes both ways. Why would you spend big to move Bryant or Baez off position?

 

[CSF77]

But a personal catcher thing. Contreras is a better blocker and guys that goto the dirt more or need help controlling the runners. Grandal frames better. So figure the best match ups and go personal catcher system again.

 

[chibears55]

You're reading into who he was talking about. Why is that Schwarber? Schwarber went from 103 wRC+ in 2017 to 115 wRC+. His defense improved. He didn't regress. He improved in measurable ways. What I don't get is why people assume Schwarber is gone when Happ clearly played worse. If we're getting rid of people who struggled he got actively worse as a player.

And it's not just "1 change." It's fundamentally how you use those players. They went into 2018 expecting Happ to be their lead off hitter and he clearly disappointed. If you want to argue Schwarber still isn't a good enough hitter I disagree but I'll humor that argument. Do you know how you get better as a team? Instead of solely relying on him to be "the guy" you build in redundancy with players who compliment him. I've said this a bunch but Almora and him are prefect platoon partners. The difference between relying on them to be 1 good OF and relying on Almora/Happ to be viable in CF and Schwarber to solely be viable in LF is enormous.

On top of that, going from someone like Russell to someone like Machado isn't a small change. Machado had a 140 wRC+ this year. Russell had a 80 wRC+. So you're talking about a 60% difference in output. That is a MASSIVE upgrade. Obviously I favor Machado over Harper but the same logic applies if you favor him. And as I've said I'd bring in a back up catcher to lighten the load on Contreras. We know Contreras can hit. But as with the Schwarber/Almora platoon I've mentioned, you build in redundancy to take the pressure off that one player.

Comparing what I outlined to the 2018 opening day roster is a massive difference. The 2018 team expected big play out of an Almora/Happ CF. It expected Schwarber solely to cover LF. It expected Russell solely to cover SS. And it expected solely Contreras to handle C. They had nothing planned if any of those players failed. Contrast that with what I've said. If Schwarber fails to be a good hitter in 2019, you can likely play Zobrist in LF, Heyward in RF and Almora in CF. For that to go bad both Almora and Schwarber have to be bad. At SS, are we betting Machado would be bad? At C, assuming they bring in someone who's a competent backup you're not counting on Contreras to go out there and play 140 games. A real vet back up is totally different than plugging in a rookie Caratini.

And like I said before, it's not like this was an 80 win team. They won 95 games despite all the problems listed above. If you eliminate individual points of failure with redundancy you eliminate a lot of your risk. Is it possible both Almora and Schwarber could be bad? Sure but Almora was playing like a damn all-star in the first half of the season and I've already outlined why I think Schwarber is good. I'm willing to give those two another chance to reach their potential. Could Contreras be bad again? Sure but if at the very least you have a good framing C behind him you can punt that position and go with someone who improves your pitching framing wise. That's how the team would be different.

A. I wasn't outing Schwarber per se

Though i personally think he may be traded, i do think it mostly depends on if Harper their guy or not

I just dont see an outfield of Schwarber Heyward and Harper being all that great defensively for a full year

 

[beckdawg]

Now Grandal will cost less than Harper or Machado. So your argument goes both ways. Why would you spend big to move Bryant or Baez off position?

Because I don't think Baez is that amazing at SS. I think he's a way better 2B. It's an entirely different thing than starting a guy who's primary position is C in LF. I think you're spending a lot of money for a guy who is going to play what? maybe 80 games a year as your back up C? If you wanna have this conversation assuming Machado/Harper don't sign ok I think that's a different conversation but it wouldn't be my opening plan. I'd put this idea in a similar tier as say going after Moustakes which wouldn't be my first plan but if shit hits the fan I'd think about it.

 

[beckdawg]

I just dont see an outfield of Schwarber Heyward and Harper being all that great defensively for a full year

I don't think it would be that great either. But again Harper isn't my first choice here. And the other thing to consider is you would still have Almora who you can bring off the bench as needed. I think Heyward is a pretty good CF. Past 2 years for the cubs he's +7 DRS in 414.2 innings and was 4.1 UZR/150 over that time period. Granted that's not an amazing sample to draw firm defensive conclusions on but we know the guy is a great RF with a cannon. If you prorate those numbers over 1050 innings that's like 18 DRS which would put him roughly in the range of the top 5 defensive CF in baseball. To use Inciarte again, he was 17 DRS and 7.4 UZR/150 over 1341 innings in CF. In terms of batting he hit .265/.325/.380(90 wRC+). Heyward hit .270/.335/.395(99 wRC+). And I think you can argue if Heyward is healthy all year maybe he doesn't stop being as hot as he was in May and June and hits even better than that.

So, like I've said, I think Heyward going to CF is a bigger upgrade than you think it is especially from the aspect of hitting. Heyward's problem isn't necessarily that he's a bad hitter. He's not. He's basically league average this year. His issue is you typically want more out of a corner OF. So, by moving him to CF where defensively he is decent you open up the ability to add hitting.

From a defensive stand point I think it matters how you figure out RF. You could go with Bryant in RF, Baez/Machado at 3B/SS in some fashion and Zobrist at 2B or you could go with Zobrist in RF. Zobrist in RF was a +2 DRS in 424.2 innings this year in RF and 3.9 UZR/150. At 2B he was +2 over 395.2 innings and 7.7 UZR/150. So, realistically he's probably fine either place but I wouldn't call him amazing at either.

Schwarber is better than people think in LF. He was +2 DRS over 943.2 innings and 14.0 UZR/150. So, it's not like he's a gapping hole there. If you went with Heyward, Schwarber and Zobrist as you're opening day starting OF all 3 would be slightly above average based on 2018 numbers.

Harper in RF lately hasn't been all that great. I'd probably prefer him in LF. His biggest issue the past few years is he just hasn't had great range. That's a bit worrying because typically range doesn't come back once you lose it.

Bryant hasn't really played enough RF to judge but he kinda looks average-ish on the numbers he has done. His biggest issue has been his error rate but given he's typically been your starting 3B, I think that's something that improves with reps were you to play him there.

 

[chibears55]

I don't think it would be that great either. But again Harper isn't my first choice here. And the other thing to consider is you would still have Almora who you can bring off the bench as needed. I think Heyward is a pretty good CF. Past 2 years for the cubs he's +7 DRS in 414.2 innings and was 4.1 UZR/150 over that time period. Granted that's not an amazing sample to draw firm defensive conclusions on but we know the guy is a great RF with a cannon. If you prorate those numbers over 1050 innings that's like 18 DRS which would put him roughly in the range of the top 5 defensive CF in baseball. To use Inciarte again, he was 17 DRS and 7.4 UZR/150 over 1341 innings in CF. In terms of batting he hit .265/.325/.380(90 wRC+). Heyward hit .270/.335/.395(99 wRC+). And I think you can argue if Heyward is healthy all year maybe he doesn't stop being as hot as he was in May and June and hits even better than that.

So, like I've said, I think Heyward going to CF is a bigger upgrade than you think it is especially from the aspect of hitting. Heyward's problem isn't necessarily that he's a bad hitter. He's not. He's basically league average this year. His issue is you typically want more out of a corner OF. So, by moving him to CF where defensively he is decent you open up the ability to add hitting.

From a defensive stand point I think it matters how you figure out RF. You could go with Bryant in RF, Baez/Machado at 3B/SS in some fashion and Zobrist at 2B or you could go with Zobrist in RF. Zobrist in RF was a +2 DRS in 424.2 innings this year in RF and 3.9 UZR/150. At 2B he was +2 over 395.2 innings and 7.7 UZR/150. So, realistically he's probably fine either place but I wouldn't call him amazing at either.

Schwarber is better than people think in LF. He was +2 DRS over 943.2 innings and 14.0 UZR/150. So, it's not like he's a gapping hole there. If you went with Heyward, Schwarber and Zobrist as you're opening day starting OF all 3 would be slightly above average based on 2018 numbers.

Harper in RF lately hasn't been all that great. I'd probably prefer him in LF. His biggest issue the past few years is he just hasn't had great range. That's a bit worrying because typically range doesn't come back once you lose it.

Bryant hasn't really played enough RF to judge but he kinda looks average-ish on the numbers he has done. His biggest issue has been his error rate but given he's typically been your starting 3B, I think that's something that improves with reps were you to play him there.

We'll see what happens comes December..

On Harper, everything ive read points to him being the guy

Of course those are just "others" speculation

 

[beckdawg]

We'll see what happens comes December..

On Harper, everything ive read points to him being the guy

Of course those are just "others" speculation

Yeah that does seem to be the feeling though I don't think people thought the cubs would be in on heyward that year either so IDK. I could see Machado's immaturity scaring off the cubs front office. Ultimately it's hard for me as a fan to gauge that in these sort of discussions. But from a logistical stand point he makes the most sense to me.

 

[CSF77]

Because I don't think Baez is that amazing at SS. I think he's a way better 2B. It's an entirely different thing than starting a guy who's primary position is C in LF. I think you're spending a lot of money for a guy who is going to play what? maybe 80 games a year as your back up C? If you wanna have this conversation assuming Machado/Harper don't sign ok I think that's a different conversation but it wouldn't be my opening plan. I'd put this idea in a similar tier as say going after Moustakes which wouldn't be my first plan but if shit hits the fan I'd think about it.

The arguement can be said about Contreras. He is a league worst framer and wears out on month 4 of 6. By reducing his games catching it increases his biggest impact. His bat.

Now the funny part of this is you are reducing the value of worth Baez gives while promoting a worse quality SS over him.

Is it a name value arguement?

 

[CSF77]

Yeah that does seem to be the feeling though I don't think people thought the cubs would be in on heyward that year either so IDK. I could see Machado's immaturity scaring off the cubs front office. Ultimately it's hard for me as a fan to gauge that in these sort of discussions. But from a logistical stand point he makes the most sense to me.

If you made it a complete void and took away the financial impact then Machado is the best hitter on the market and the best fit.

But that is not the case.

What I honestly believe is that they do not go all in on a mega. They did that last year and got nothing in return and had to scramble later season to replace almost every investment made. Cishek was the only F/A that paid his value.

I believe that this will be a major factor in the decision process going in. Does throwing cash fix the problem? Uhm no it doesn’t. It causes more strain on retention and doesn’t guarantee shit.

So if anything I kinda expect trades being a major player this off.

 

[chibears55]

Just read that Theo looking to have Morrow in a more structured role

Wonder if that means limiting him to the 7th and 8th inning and looking for another closer

Me personally, i wouldn't mind if they just went with a rotation of relievers to close games out

 

[beckdawg]

Now the funny part of this is you are reducing the value of worth Baez gives while promoting a worse quality SS over him.

That's just like your opinion man. I understand why you think that's the case but what I will tell you is Machado was a no doubt SS in the minors. The only reason he moved off SS in the first place was baltimore already had a gold glove SS in JJ hardy. Javy always had SS range/arm but the guy has never been good at routine plays. Plus, what you're missing is just how much impact Javy has in the run game at 2B. His quick tags are something that separates him from others. That's not something you get from him at SS.

 

[beckdawg]

Just read that Theo looking to have Morrow in a more structured role

Wonder if that means limiting him to the 7th and 8th inning and looking for another closer

Me personally, i wouldn't mind if they just went with a rotation of relievers to close games out

Doubt it. They also talked about having him be limited in how he's used. Putting him earlier in the game is more use on him where as if he's the closer you have a bit more say when you use him.

 

[chibears55]

Doubt it. They also talked about having him be limited in how he's used. Putting him earlier in the game is more use on him where as if he's the closer you have a bit more say when you use him.

If he going to be limited more then he was this past season then having him as the closer is pointless if he only going to be used probably twice a week..

If that the case then he being used as i said i wouldn't mind seeing, in a mix of closers