Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

How the **** is it being "biased" to have an opinion that Machado can play SS as good as Baez? He was a gold glove 3B and came up through the minors as a SS. It's not like I'm inventing him being good defensively out of whole cloth. Have anywhere in this discussion I suggested Baez is a bad defender? No. I just think he's better at 2B which isn't some sort of giant stretch. And let's say you're right. Let's say he's marginally better than Machado at SS. So what? Does that suddenly make Machado not worth getting? Because no matter what he's a great bat to add to the line up. Was Derek Jeter a better SS than Alex Rodriguez? No. But the Yankees made a move to get ARod's bat anyways.

You're arguing points that don't even matter. Machado isn't bad enough at SS that it's a net loss. Do you know how I know this? Because he's playing SS in the fucking world series. So, it's not like you're playing... idk Schwarber at SS suddenly. The guy can play SS and a smart team(LA) is my proof.

I’ve moved on from SS because I just don’t agree with you. He is a GG 3B and if the sign him trading Bryant for a pitching haul better be part of it. Because when you are paying 70M into 3 players and have Bryant looking at a mega also choices need to be made.

So I would agree to sign a 26YO to a mega then trade a pending mega for your future rotation. Because affording a F/A one is beyond reasonable with Manny Megabucks on payroll.

They are better suited investing into depth. Hamels, Chavez, a late inning arm because Edwards has been unreliable, retaining Strop because he has been reliable. And so on. Back up catcher so we don’t see a production drop.

Most of the O woes can be pointed at Contreras’ drop off and Bryant’s injury. Sure we can escape goat Davis or play the Manny card. But in reality it really comes down to managing your depth and playing time smarter.

 

[beckdawg]

Beck, the fucking baltimore orioles knew he was no longer a ss and moved him for JJ Hardy. I really find it hard to believe he should be moving Baez off shortstop.

JJ hard was a gold glove shortstop. You going to move a vet gold glove SS off his position for a rookie? They also had a good 2B at the time. That's why Machado ended up at 3B. And again this is a totally irrelevant point. You sign the player not the position. If it's true that Baez is just so much better than Machado at SS you make it work in some other way. You can have him play 3B and Bryant play RF. You can have him play 2B. Whatever.

 

[beckdawg]

I’ve moved on from SS because I just don’t agree with you. He is a GG 3B and if the sign him trading Bryant for a pitching haul better be part of it. Because when you are paying 70M into 3 players and have Bryant looking at a mega also choices need to be made.

So I would agree to sign a 26YO to a mega then trade a pending mega for your future rotation. Because affording a F/A one is beyond reasonable with Manny Megabucks on payroll.

They are better suited investing into depth. Hamels, Chavez, a late inning arm because Edwards has been unreliable, retaining Strop because he has been reliable. And so on. Back up catcher so we don’t see a production drop.

Most of the O woes can be pointed at Contreras’ drop off and Bryant’s injury. Sure we can escape goat Davis or play the Manny card. But in reality it really comes down to managing your depth and playing time smarter.

Well look, all I'm saying here is the belief he can't play SS is a totally meaningless argument. If you want to argue Machado is a bad signing because of the money that's an entirely different discussion and one potentially worth having. But why this bugs me so much is the position is an irrelevant point. The cubs can make him fit in their plans no matter which position he plays be it SS, 3B or even moving him to 2B.

As to your other point, I don't really agree. You seem to be thinking they need more talent. I think they need to consolidate the talent they have into better players. That's why I personally disagree with the signing lessor players plan you've thrown out and why I don't really agree with trading Bryant either if they were to sign Machado. Right now IMO the cubs have too many players like Almora/Happ. That is to say guys who are probably good enough to start on some teams but not necessarily the guys you want starting on a WS contender.

The thing is that you don't normally find guys like Machado available for trade. Like on a typical july deadline they don't exist so you can't normally add guys like him. On the contrary, you can usually fill in the roster with trades for useful second tier starters. The other issue is even if there were a guy like Machado on the trading block, the cubs can't trade for him because they don't have the prospects. On the contrary, they added a guy like Murphy for next to nothing and I'd argue he's a similar level talent to the Happ/Almora's of the world.

The down side to signing Machado is sure you're going to end up in a spot where Bryant, Baez, Machado and to an extent Heyward are all making huge money. At that point you probably have to do something because I don't know that you can afford to pay all of them market value. I'm not ignorant of that issue. But it's 3 years down the road at the earliest. I think Machado gives them the best chance to win during that window of time not just because he's a good player but because anything else they need to ad be it replacing Happ or whomever, they can get fairly cheaply comparatively in trade.

 

[CSF77]

While Daniel Murphy was largely viewed as a rental when the Cubs acquired him, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein hasn’t closed the door on retaining the veteran infielder, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. “I wouldn’t rule anything out,” said Epstein. “He did a lot to right our offense right after he got here and contribute while being asked to play a bigger role than we envisioned when we got him because of injuries and because of a lack of performance offensively and because of the schedule.” Murphy stumbled out of the gates in 2018 upon returning to the from offseason knee surgery, but he hit .322/.358/.502 from July through season’s end — including a .297/.329/.471 slash after the Nats traded him to the Cubs. Addison Russell’s suspension has clouded the Cubs’ middle-infield picture, though Murphy’s defense at second base has graded out terribly over the past two seasons, which the Cubs will have to consider.

It seems plausible that some clubs will prefer Murphy as a first baseman rather than a second baseman, though the Cubs have Anthony Rizzo locked in at first, so they’d have to be convinced he can play second base on a fairly regular basis.

I really don't know about this. I love the bat but man.

 

[CSF77]

Well look, all I'm saying here is the belief he can't play SS is a totally meaningless argument. If you want to argue Machado is a bad signing because of the money that's an entirely different discussion and one potentially worth having. But why this bugs me so much is the position is an irrelevant point. The cubs can make him fit in their plans no matter which position he plays be it SS, 3B or even moving him to 2B.

As to your other point, I don't really agree. You seem to be thinking they need more talent. I think they need to consolidate the talent they have into better players. That's why I personally disagree with the signing lessor players plan you've thrown out and why I don't really agree with trading Bryant either if they were to sign Machado. Right now IMO the cubs have too many players like Almora/Happ. That is to say guys who are probably good enough to start on some teams but not necessarily the guys you want starting on a WS contender.

The thing is that you don't normally find guys like Machado available for trade. Like on a typical july deadline they don't exist so you can't normally add guys like him. On the contrary, you can usually fill in the roster with trades for useful second tier starters. The other issue is even if there were a guy like Machado on the trading block, the cubs can't trade for him because they don't have the prospects. On the contrary, they added a guy like Murphy for next to nothing and I'd argue he's a similar level talent to the Happ/Almora's of the world.

The down side to signing Machado is sure you're going to end up in a spot where Bryant, Baez, Machado and to an extent Heyward are all making huge money. At that point you probably have to do something because I don't know that you can afford to pay all of them market value. I'm not ignorant of that issue. But it's 3 years down the road at the earliest. I think Machado gives them the best chance to win during that window of time not just because he's a good player but because anything else they need to ad be it replacing Happ or whomever, they can get fairly cheaply comparatively in trade.

I'm more concerned with Bryant walking. Now if you are thinking sign Machado and move him to 3rd when Bryant walks...well I honestly believe it makes better sense to trade him for the right return. Say to Oakland for Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk and Sean Murphy.

Catcher at AAA.

A preferred walk-on at Wright State after going undrafted out of high school in 2013, Murphy emerged as a Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American the next year and earned All-League honors in 2015-16. The dearth of college catchers in the 2016 Draft class boosted Murphy's stock, and he became the second-highest pick in Raiders history when the A's drafted him in the third round. He proved advanced in his first full season, earning California League All-Star honors after bypassing the Class A level entirely, and then receiving a midseason bump up to Double-A Midland. He continued to excel in the Arizona Fall League, showing well on both sides of the ball against advanced competition, and was ever better this season in his return to Midland before undergoing surgery for a broken hamate bone in July.

Murphy draws raves from evaluators for his athleticism, agility and defensive tools behind the plate. He stymies the running game with plus-plus arm strength and above-average pop times, so much so that only 46 baserunners attempted to steal against him over 91 games in 2017. His blocking, game-calling and receiving skills have all improved in the professional ranks, and club officials consistently praise his ability to handle pitchers.

Offensively, Murphy possesses an intriguing blend of power potential and on-base skills from the right side of the plate. There's some natural hitting ability there too, and he proved comfortable using the entire field in his first full season. Even if his production is only modest, Murphy's defensive chops alone could make him an everyday catcher at the highest level.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 65 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 55
Viewed as a potential No. 1 overall pick for the 2016 Draft after a dominant sophomore season at Florida, Puk was plagued by back spasms and didn't show the same consistency as a junior. He still ended up going sixth overall to the A's and signed for $4,069,200, the largest bonus for a pitcher in franchise history. Puk lived up to the hype in his first full season, as the left-hander garnered California League All-Star honors before advancing to Double-A in June and then appearing in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game the following month. However, his progress has been delayed by Tommy John surgery that will require him to miss all of 2018.

Puk has elite bat-missing ability, a notion supported by his Minor League-leading 13.2 strikeouts-per-nine in 2017. He induces many of those whiffs with his plus fastball-slider pairing, as he'll operate at 93-97 mph with his heater to set up a devastating mid- to upper-80s slider. Puk also features a curveball and changeup, both of which improved as the season progressed. What's more, Puk's entire arsenal plays up because he gets tremendous extension from his 6-foot-7 frame.

Puk made strides as a strike-thrower in his first full season after making an adjustment to his delivery early in the year. His control and command should continue to improve as he learns to control his long levers and repeat his delivery with greater consistency. With further gains on that front, and the development of a more effective changeup to use against right-handed hitters, Puk could achieve his ceiling of a No. 2 starter.

So that is the kinda return that I'm thinking.

Now on a slight retool?

I really don't like using resource towards a limited player like Murphy. If they do it feels waste of time honestly. They are doing nothing. At all.

Here is your 25 man:

Bryant, Baez, Murphy, Rizzo, Contreras. Schwarber, Almora, Heyward

Zobrist, Cartini, Happ, Bote(becomes Russell)

Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Darvish, Q

Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Chatwood, Smyly, Cishek, Montgomery

leaves 1 spot that they have 2 guys paid to do as is....

Yep.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm more concerned with Bryant walking. Now if you are thinking sign Machado and move him to 3rd when Bryant walks...well I honestly believe it makes better sense to trade him for the right return. Say to Oakland for Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk and Sean Murphy.

I think you're being a bit to cute with this thought process. Here's what I mean by that... You don't have to trade Bryant now. I'm not even sure if you signed machado and if it got to the point where you weren't going to be able to afford everyone that he'd be the guy to go. For example, I think you might let Javy walk before him.

But let's set that aside for a moment and go with your thought process. Why trade Bryant now? Sure you get more value for him now than you would in 2 years. No denying that. But if you're trying to win the world series in the next two years you're undoubtably better with both Machado and Bryant than you are without. So, I don't think you'd make that move. I think you make that move when you have to closer to the time you have to for a couple of reasons aside from just trying to win. The other reason is you don't necessarily know what you'll need 5 years down the line because you don't know which prospects develop. It's entirely possible that Ademan rebounds next year and starts to look like an All-Star caliber SS and at that point maybe you just decide javy's the guy to go. Or, maybe some of this pitching they drafted starts to break out.

You're likely going to have to do a reset anyways around that time point because Rizzo's deal is up after 2021 as well as Lester and various other guys. My view is you just go all in as much as you can the next 2-3 years and figure the rest out later. If that means you have to take a 1-2 year break to sort out some issues with payroll and what not then so be it. But I was listening to a recent podcast some where and they were talking about some rival execs who basically suggested they had told the people on the podcast that the cubs issue is they were built for 162 not for the playoffs this year which I think is a great way to put it. I'm not sure any other team in the league could have played that 30 day stretch the cubs did. But when it came down to must win games the cubs didn't have the star bats produce.

 

[beckdawg]

Can't remember if I said this or just thought about it but something to keep in mind with regard to happ is Nico Hoener IMO. Originally I thought he might go back to A+ to start next year after a semi-slow start in the AFL(typically it's AA level competition). However he's gotten hot lately and is hitting .326/.347/.457 over 46 ABs. So, I'm now thinking he may start in AA and it wouldn't entirely shock me to see him called up in september next year or possibly faster if he just went nuts in AA/AAA.

The reason I bring up Happ is I think Nico is going to play the same sort of super utility role as Happ was supposed to this year. He can play SS but he's probably not a starter there. He can probably play CF. Realistically given his skillset he can probably play anything but C although you may not love him at SS/3B/RF because of his arm being just average. And if he's going to be ready for the majors possibly by late next year do you really need Happ?

 

[fatbeard]

this is unbelievable in your eyes? I really dont know why you are reading what this idiot writes as fact, I guess you just like to feel smarter that someone here so you continue to dog my posts. What is so hard with just ignoring them? Put something out there for the discussion instead of just agreeing with the popular vote.

Feel free to post a single shred of evidence that supports your claim.

Show your work.

 

[CSF77]

I think you're being a bit to cute with this thought process. Here's what I mean by that... You don't have to trade Bryant now. I'm not even sure if you signed machado and if it got to the point where you weren't going to be able to afford everyone that he'd be the guy to go. For example, I think you might let Javy walk before him.

But let's set that aside for a moment and go with your thought process. Why trade Bryant now? Sure you get more value for him now than you would in 2 years. No denying that. But if you're trying to win the world series in the next two years you're undoubtably better with both Machado and Bryant than you are without. So, I don't think you'd make that move. I think you make that move when you have to closer to the time you have to for a couple of reasons aside from just trying to win. The other reason is you don't necessarily know what you'll need 5 years down the line because you don't know which prospects develop. It's entirely possible that Ademan rebounds next year and starts to look like an All-Star caliber SS and at that point maybe you just decide javy's the guy to go. Or, maybe some of this pitching they drafted starts to break out.

You're likely going to have to do a reset anyways around that time point because Rizzo's deal is up after 2021 as well as Lester and various other guys. My view is you just go all in as much as you can the next 2-3 years and figure the rest out later. If that means you have to take a 1-2 year break to sort out some issues with payroll and what not then so be it. But I was listening to a recent podcast some where and they were talking about some rival execs who basically suggested they had told the people on the podcast that the cubs issue is they were built for 162 not for the playoffs this year which I think is a great way to put it. I'm not sure any other team in the league could have played that 30 day stretch the cubs did. But when it came down to must win games the cubs didn't have the star bats produce.

Last 60 days Contreras went from all star to bench player. wearing the catcher gear wears anyone down much less a guy who hit the DL the year before so really never experienced a full year in the gear. The Cubs are built to depend on his production. Add to it they lost their MVP and Baez's 2 WAR improvement did not offset a loss of 6 WAR. It was not possible.

So I get this new logic of Murphy. The Cubs were choking and Murphy worked. Well they were choking because they lost 6 WAR of production (4 with Baez's boost) but that was off set by Contreras' loss of production from wear and tear.

So what to do? Like I said reducing Wilson's work load behind the dish is a major issue going in. Now I did not say PA's because the Cubs depend on them. That is solved with a MLB quality starting catcher soaking up games. As in 65 approx. That way Wilson is limited to under 100 there. That leaves 62 games that he can platoon in a corner OF spot or just take the day off. That is why they need a legit back up that can hit also. Not just be a bat that can't catch or a catcher that is an auto out.

That move IMO should be of the highest priority before even looking at any major deals.

 

[CSF77]

Nick Hundley (35)
Kurt Suzuki (35)
Jonathan Lucroy (33)

Few names on it. Minor deals end up being the best value ones. Cishek paid off way more than the rest....

 

[chibears55]

I really don't know about this. I love the bat but man.

I doubt Theo resigns him, nowhere to play him...
I think Theo just saying positive things for him for other teams to sign him

That said , if he does sign him the only reason i can think of is to maybe play him at 3B and move Bryant to OF

But again i strongly doubt Theo brings him back

 

[CSF77]

I feel it is a reach also. He is far to limited and if they do it signals frugal move to keep payroll close to tax

 

[fatbeard]

I really don't know about this. I love the bat but man.

Murphy needs to find a nice AL team to settle down with and DH the remainder of his career.

 

[chibears55]

I think you're being a bit to cute with this thought process. Here's what I mean by that... You don't have to trade Bryant now. I'm not even sure if you signed machado and if it got to the point where you weren't going to be able to afford everyone that he'd be the guy to go. For example, I think you might let Javy walk before him.

But let's set that aside for a moment and go with your thought process. Why trade Bryant now? Sure you get more value for him now than you would in 2 years. No denying that. But if you're trying to win the world series in the next two years you're undoubtably better with both Machado and Bryant than you are without. So, I don't think you'd make that move. I think you make that move when you have to closer to the time you have to for a couple of reasons aside from just trying to win. The other reason is you don't necessarily know what you'll need 5 years down the line because you don't know which prospects develop. It's entirely possible that Ademan rebounds next year and starts to look like an All-Star caliber SS and at that point maybe you just decide javy's the guy to go. Or, maybe some of this pitching they drafted starts to break out.

You're likely going to have to do a reset anyways around that time point because Rizzo's deal is up after 2021 as well as Lester and various other guys. My view is you just go all in as much as you can the next 2-3 years and figure the rest out later. If that means you have to take a 1-2 year break to sort out some issues with payroll and what not then so be it. But I was listening to a recent podcast some where and they were talking about some rival execs who basically suggested they had told the people on the podcast that the cubs issue is they were built for 162 not for the playoffs this year which I think is a great way to put it. I'm not sure any other team in the league could have played that 30 day stretch the cubs did. But when it came down to must win games the cubs didn't have the star bats produce.

100% this....

He worried about 2022 over trying to put the best possible team on the field now to win championships

You add another stud everyday bat to the lineup with Baez Bryant and Rizzo
now at least half the lineup are solid everyday players that can carry the team at any time during the season and postseason..

Not discounting the others in Contreras Heyward or whomever, if they rebound and pick their game up then the lineup is even better

The starting pitching is pretty much set considering they have control on everyone, i think it just a matter of if they prefer someone else as an upgrade or going younger as far bringing back Hamels and or Quintana.

Bullpen i think gonna get a little makeover..
I think he gonna add someone to protect any possible overuse of Morrow and possibly reshape the middle relief a bit..

Chavez Monty and Chatwood could be guys used in the middle or moved out for upgrades

Why im excited about this offseason, Theo and Jed have multiple moves they can make to upgrade this team and make them even better

 

[CSF77]

100% this....

He worried about 2022 over trying to put the best possible team on the field now to win championships

You add another stud everyday bat to the lineup with Baez Bryant and Rizzo
now at least half the lineup are solid everyday players that can carry the team at any time during the season and postseason..

Not discounting the others in Contreras Heyward or whomever, if they rebound and pick their game up then the lineup is even better

The starting pitching is pretty much set considering they have control on everyone, i think it just a matter of if they prefer someone else as an upgrade or going younger as far bringing back Hamels and or Quintana.

Bullpen i think gonna get a little makeover..
I think he gonna add someone to protect any possible overuse of Morrow and possibly reshape the middle relief a bit..

Chavez Monty and Chatwood could be guys used in the middle or moved out for upgrades

Why im excited about this offseason, Theo and Jed have multiple moves they can make to upgrade this team and make them even better

You realize that they are over tax now right? Manny is a luxury. Not a necessary piece. If they do go 30+M over that is uncharted. Not just for the Rickett’s but the Org.

I really have serious doubts based off of history. Historically they have not. And they have a history of avoiding this. In reality signing a mega is very unlikely and hype driven.

 

[chibears55]

You realize that they are over tax now right? Manny is a luxury. Not a necessary piece. If they do go 30+M over that is uncharted. Not just for the Rickett’s but the Org.

I really have serious doubts based off of history. Historically they have not. And they have a history of avoiding this. In reality signing a mega is very unlikely and hype driven.

If Theo Jed and Rickett want to add Machado or Harper to the team, then im sure their smart enough to figure out the best way to keep the team WS contenders and avoid major punishment for going over the Tax threshold

So me as a fan, im not going to worry about oh my gosh i hope they dont sign this impact player because he gonna cost too much..
Because I trust this group to do whatever necessary to keep my favorite team competing for championships

If they decide to go over and their not worried about it, then why should I be

I only care about the talent on the field and winning games, not how much their paying for it

 

[TL1961]

There is that also.

After seeing how Shark and Arrieta when well wishful thinking there.

What I believe happens is no mega. They currently have 3 going on and I don’t see 4.

I do see that they will look at the data on Contreras and get a legit back up. If they would have let Kyle catch this could have been easily solved internally. Now they have to reduce Contreras’ PA’s or see another drop off in Aug. Cartiani is not a solution. Suzuki IMO is the best move. Then they can add AB’s in LF for Schwarber.

Over all I feel that having Bryant and Darvish healthy with a full year of Chavez makes them better naturally. Then they have to reinforce with quality. As in a solid late inning guy. Boston has become a force there. Eovidelli just made the 7-9 unwinnable if behind. The Cubs should value the worth of a shut down pen.

After that Russell? Cut and replace or push out there in May and slide Baez back to 2B? This one is a pickle.

OF? Almora dropped off but as Beck said it was after Joe pulled him from the top. Almora/Heyward combo I’m fine with as they put the ball in play. I just don’t see a massive upgrade at CF to justify a move.


So IMO it is not worth signing Manny unless they want to trade Bryant for a future rotation. And I mean a ransom of pitching. Then I’m pretty much I get it. Boras sucks and this deal is not about getting another Pujos contract.

You don't sign a FA to a $ 350 million+ contract so that you can trade an MVP winner for future players.

 

[CSF77]

You don't sign a FA to a $ 350 million+ contract so that you can trade an MVP winner for future players.

Normally I would agree but Bryant will be 30 and with Boras you can pretty much expect a Pujos ending here. Locked into 1B (early injury).

Reality is far better players have regressed in their 30 and have not earned fair value.

So if you are looking at it naive sure I agree. But looking at it from a historic and intellectual viewpoint Manny at 26 is a far wiser investment.

Not on when to trade Bryant. Well that is another story. Every year decreases return and the deadline on a failure maybe the answer.

I don’t see them going to bed with Boras.

 

[fatbeard]

Normally I would agree but Bryant will be 30 and with Boras you can pretty much expect a Pujos ending here. Locked into 1B (early injury).

Reality is far better players have regressed in their 30 and have not earned fair value.

So if you are looking at it naive sure I agree. But looking at it from a historic and intellectual viewpoint Manny at 26 is a far wiser investment.

Not on when to trade Bryant. Well that is another story. Every year decreases return and the deadline on a failure maybe the answer.

I don’t see them going to bed with Boras.

First of all, Boras' schtick of selling a player straight to ownership in order to force the GM to make a foolhardy deal isn't working as consistently as it used to, and it almost certainly wouldn't work on Ricketts and Epstein, who are as tied philosophically at the hip as an owner and president can be. GMs these days have much more information available to them in order to push back against an overzealous owner, and Boras' clients are beginning to pay for it.

Second, asserting that Bryant is destined for 1B because of an "early injury" that is so serious it will not even require surgery is just laughable. Half of this forum acts like Bryant's arm requires amputation, and the Cubs need to deal him before the gangrene sets in. It's just so bizarre.

Third, you assert that you don't see the Cubs "going to bed" with Boras while simultaneously arguing that Manny Machado is a better investment for a mega deal. Well, I hate to break it to you, but guess who Manny Machado's agent is?

 

[CSF77]

First of all, Boras' schtick of selling a player straight to ownership in order to force the GM to make a foolhardy deal isn't working as consistently as it used to, and it almost certainly wouldn't work on Ricketts and Epstein, who are as tied philosophically at the hip as an owner and president can be. GMs these days have much more information available to them in order to push back against an overzealous owner, and Boras' clients are beginning to pay for it.

Second, asserting that Bryant is destined for 1B because of an "early injury" that is so serious it will not even require surgery is just laughable. Half of this forum acts like Bryant's arm requires amputation, and the Cubs need to deal him before the gangrene sets in. It's just so bizarre.

Third, you assert that you don't see the Cubs "going to bed" with Boras while simultaneously arguing that Manny Machado is a better investment for a mega deal. Well, I hate to break it to you, but guess who Manny Machado's agent is?

1. Fair enough on Boras
2. Age matters after 36. Year 6 of 10 at 30+M never ends up well. Players over ask to pay for the earlier discount they played for.
3. Manny is the same age that Beltre was when he hit F/A. As far as the investment is concerned it is sound.

Again my issue is the vast majority expecting a NYY type of move when there has been 0 history to back it. Could it happen?

Odds
50% no
25% Harper
25% Manny