Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

As far as the Cubs are concerned: Manny hit .182. He played like a poor sport. Not a leader. Potential franchise ruining decision IMO. I wouldn't touch it. They were not better than 2017's team. All they did was get older and add a nice arm in the rotation. Should add another next year with their SS back. Manny was just a crutch for them to salvage a season and it worked. Play offs Manny didn't earn his keep.

So I'll still hold to Murphy at 2B for a fraction of the cost. That won't be enough to beat Boston this year but next year is not this year.

 

[chibears55]

As far as the Cubs are concerned: Manny hit .182. He played like a poor sport. Not a leader. Potential franchise ruining decision IMO. I wouldn't touch it. They were not better than 2017's team. All they did was get older and add a nice arm in the rotation. Should add another next year with their SS back. Manny was just a crutch for them to salvage a season and it worked. Play offs Manny didn't earn his keep.

So I'll still hold to Murphy at 2B for a fraction of the cost. That won't be enough to beat Boston this year but next year is not this year.

They already have an old guy to play 2B in Zobrist

 

[beckdawg]

Basically you are saying a pitcher can be good one year and bad the next.

I'm saying that because it's accurate save for a few rare exceptions. Ken Giles was a "dominant bullpen arm" 2 years ago and isn't even with the Astros anymore. Wade Davis got paid major money this past offseason and had an ERA north of 4. Hector Rondon who everyone was happy to let go had a 3.20/2.79 ERA/FIP this year just like everyone expected....etc. Point here being the variance year to year from relief pitchers is huge. For all we know Edwards goes out and dominates in 2019. It's not like he can't do it.

Regardless, my point here is you aren't going to have a boring bullpen. It never happens. And even if by some miracle you happen upon all 8 guys being right the chances of all of them staying healthy all year is so minimal. And frankly I think throwing a crap load of money at the problem is the wrong way to address the situation. They need to add another stopper. Last year they had Cishek and Strop largely for times when men were in scoring position. Both were decidedly above average. Mind you no one is really "good" with runners in scoring position. League average was a 11.79 ERA. But Cishek Strop and Edwards had 6.00, 7.20 and 9.95 ERA's in those situations.

If you add another middle reliever arm who's good in those situation you don't need to go out and sign a closer. You have Strop. Of the FA's who had an ERA under 8 and 10 ip with runners in scoring position they are as follows

LH
Tony Sipp - 4.38
Jorge De La Rosa - 7.71

RH
Shawn Kelley - 4.85
Kelvin Herrera - 5.23
Adam Ottavino - 6.55
Fernando Rodney - 7.06(team option)
Brad Brach - 7.32
Craig Kimbrel - 7.63
Jesse Chavez - 7.79
Bud Norris - 7.88
Tyler Clippard - 7.91

You'll notice that with the exceptions of Kimbrel and to a lessor extent Brach and Herrera most of those guys aren't closers. The vast majority of those guys aren't going to cost you more than $6-7 mil a year and hell I'm not even sure Brach would. Kimbrel definitely will but Brach and Herrera I think are more than likely going to cost set up guy type money and the tier below them with guys like Chavez is probably $4-5 mil

 

[chibears55]

Key Dates this week...

Oct 31: options need to be decided

Nov 2nd: QO deadline

Nov 3rd: FA eligible to sign

 

[CSF77]

I'm saying that because it's accurate save for a few rare exceptions. Ken Giles was a "dominant bullpen arm" 2 years ago and isn't even with the Astros anymore. Wade Davis got paid major money this past offseason and had an ERA north of 4. Hector Rondon who everyone was happy to let go had a 3.20/2.79 ERA/FIP this year just like everyone expected....etc. Point here being the variance year to year from relief pitchers is huge. For all we know Edwards goes out and dominates in 2019. It's not like he can't do it.

Regardless, my point here is you aren't going to have a boring bullpen. It never happens. And even if by some miracle you happen upon all 8 guys being right the chances of all of them staying healthy all year is so minimal. And frankly I think throwing a crap load of money at the problem is the wrong way to address the situation. They need to add another stopper. Last year they had Cishek and Strop largely for times when men were in scoring position. Both were decidedly above average. Mind you no one is really "good" with runners in scoring position. League average was a 11.79 ERA. But Cishek Strop and Edwards had 6.00, 7.20 and 9.95 ERA's in those situations.

If you add another middle reliever arm who's good in those situation you don't need to go out and sign a closer. You have Strop. Of the FA's who had an ERA under 8 and 10 ip with runners in scoring position they are as follows

LH
Tony Sipp - 4.38
Jorge De La Rosa - 7.71

RH
Shawn Kelley - 4.85
Kelvin Herrera - 5.23
Adam Ottavino - 6.55
Fernando Rodney - 7.06(team option)
Brad Brach - 7.32
Craig Kimbrel - 7.63
Jesse Chavez - 7.79
Bud Norris - 7.88
Tyler Clippard - 7.91

You'll notice that with the exceptions of Kimbrel and to a lessor extent Brach and Herrera most of those guys aren't closers. The vast majority of those guys aren't going to cost you more than $6-7 mil a year and hell I'm not even sure Brach would. Kimbrel definitely will but Brach and Herrera I think are more than likely going to cost set up guy type money and the tier below them with guys like Chavez is probably $4-5 mil

Chatwood might be interesting if he regains his command in a late inning role. But they have no choice other than regaining value on him at this point and if he rebounds as a closer type well...

Edwards I believe was injured. I do not know much on his current situation this off season.

Going into spring, as far as the pen is concerned I’m not expect huge turn over. Smyly in for Wilson. Cishek, Strop, Morrow as the prime 7-9 guys. They may bring back Chavez and axe Kintzler. Well that is a safe bet. Out side of that I would expect status que and in season injury would create opertunites for promotion.

 

[TL1961]

2 years ago Maddon wasn't even confident enough in Strop to use him in the playoffs. He leaned almost entirely on Chapman/Monty in 2016. That's basically the point I'm making. Year to year you can't predict this stuff.

Strop was hurt late in 2016 season and was not 100% in the playoffs. And Joe also insisted on pitching Chapman 7 innings a day.

 

[TL1961]

Call me crazy, but I'd be Ok with Wilson staying. (Or is he no longer under contract?)

 

[CSF77]

Call me crazy, but I'd be Ok with Wilson staying. (Or is he no longer under contract?)

He is a F/A.

 

[CSF77]

Strop was hurt late in 2016 season and was not 100% in the playoffs. And Joe also insisted on pitching Chapman 7 innings a day.

Strop was more of a slider pitcher back then also. Rondon I believe was injured. Rondon had a nice 98 fastball but lacked a whole package. Seems like he matured last year.

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1056989006137827329?s=19


Im gonna say Chavez and DeLaRosa are the only guys they try and bring back from this group

 

[fatbeard]

Strop was more of a slider pitcher back then also. Rondon I believe was injured. Rondon had a nice 98 fastball but lacked a whole package. Seems like he matured last year.

Rondon had velocity and a decent slider but his fastball had a Farnsworth-like lack of movement, and when he left it in the zone it'd get hammered.

 

[SilenceS]

There is no matching the talent on the 2018 Red Sox team. You know that's what I'm saying so I'm not sure why you're acting dumb about it.

The 2016 Cubs won because they took advantage of a fairly down year overall in terms of MLB play. The 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox teams are both significantly better than the 2016 Cubs. Anyone who says differently is an idiot.

KB? Is that you? Please say it is so

 

[kapooncha]

KB? Is that you? Please say it is so

Lou Piniella here

 

[CSF77]

Rondon had velocity and a decent slider but his fastball had a Farnsworth-like lack of movement, and when he left it in the zone it'd get hammered.

Fair enough. So did Farnsworth succeed in his Pro Rasslin career?

 

[CSF77]

KB? Is that you? Please say it is so

Trump bought the rights to that term off KB...

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1056989006137827329?s=19


Im gonna say Chavez and DeLaRosa are the only guys they try and bring back from this group

De La Rosa: no. He really brings nothing. It feels push on 2017 Duesing honestly. The talent has left port.

Chavez I like him. Cubs do not have a hot arm that needs a automatic promote. I would set a limit though. They are most likely eating 8.5 mil to start the off season so a investment over 5M should be avoided. More than 1 year avoided also. Age and talent upwelling.

Murphy IDK honestly. I doubt that he takes a discount. Part of me really wants to see a impact trade here.

 

[chibears55]

De La Rosa: no. He really brings nothing. It feels push on 2017 Duesing honestly. The talent has left port.

Chavez I like him. Cubs do not have a hot arm that needs a automatic promote. I would set a limit though. They are most likely eating 8.5 mil to start the off season so a investment over 5M should be avoided. More than 1 year avoided also. Age and talent upwelling.

Murphy IDK honestly. I doubt that he takes a discount. Part of me really wants to see a impact trade here.

Didn't realize Delarosa was 37, holy cow

Yea, i dont see him being resigned

 

[TL1961]

No way you can go into a season with Murphy as a regular middle infielder.

 

[CSF77]

No way you can go into a season with Murphy as a regular middle infielder.

It is not they don't want him. More so at his age he will want a 3 year deal. Opening day he turns 34 so he is not going to do this 1 year thing. So a AL team is far more likely for him. Cubs have 3 quality MI up welling.

Giambrone should be at AAA, Put up .251/.333/.440 26 SB and 17 HR so basically a 20/20 bat.
Ademan at AA .207/.291/.273 I see him as a UI but evaluators love him still after that turd. Age clause only works so long.
Nico: AA again (most likely) .327/.450/.571

I see Ademan moved to 2B here. Nico's bat is just that good.

Regardless I really could see a 1 year offer about it. Looking over the landscape it sucks in general honestly. So bad that trading for Billy Hamilton is not stupid as it sounds. He has 1 year left of control and I'm guessing they would flip him for almost anything. He is due 6.25M I would move him into a 2B/CF platoon myself of sorts. Between Zo and Almora to split up the AB's. Gives a set of legs late inning on those games. Plays CF at the same level as Almora. Over all not dumb.

Russell for him might be a fair swap. Happ I honestly believe holds more value in trade weight so that would be a bigger thing. Speaking of Happ he would be the ideal 2B if they pushed him that way and had him focus more on contact vs power. Splits: .202/.291/.317 .244/.374/.442 He lost the ability to hit RH for some reason. Year before .276/.313/.476.

To be honest here he should have never lead off last year. He caught the same stupid bug that Schwarber got the year before. Must walk duh....

 

[anotheridiot]

No way you can go into a season with Murphy as a regular middle infielder.

Not with the needs in the pen (dollar wise) and the quality you have to put on the field at second base.

I think people are expecting Murphy to expect some 6 million dollar deal.