Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/Michael_Cerami/status/1058375367902277632?s=19


If Machado or Harper on the menu, probably look for Russell Chatwood and possibly Heyward to be on the move to avoid Tier 3

 

[beckdawg]

Jesse Rogers
✔
@ESPNChiCubs
Cubs deal official. Drew Smyly and a PTBNL to Texas for a PTBNL while team exercises 2019 option on Cole Hamels.

Given the cubs are also sending a PTBNL I would expect their PTBNL is more than a typical non-prospect PTBNL

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1058338172667678720?s=19

 

[chibears55]

Just saw cubs aren't tendering Justin Wilson..

Break my heart..lol

 

[beckdawg]

Bleacher nation brought up a good point. Chances are the guy coming to the cubs is rule 5 eligible and using the PTBNL here is a way of avoiding rostering a guy. If the guy they want gets picked the list of guys is additional choices but presumably the guy they "want" is rule 5 eligible which would also make sense given where the cubs are competition wise.

I was able to find a list of potential guys who were rule 5 eligible for the rangers. Not sure it has everyone but names that stick out to me as being possible are Adam Choplick, Scott Heineman and Yonny Hernandez. Choplick would be a pure bullpen arm. He spent the year in AA with 10.22/5.35 k/bb per 9 rates. He's a REALLY big LHP at 6' 9" / 250 and the cubs don't have a ton of good LHP depth. Heineman seems like a Szczur type OF who floats between AAA/MLB. Hernandez is kind of interesting as a good contact speed threat type that they've been drafting lately. He had a 13.1%/14.7% bb/k rate with 44 SB and a .260/.371/.327 as a 20 year old in A ball.

If I had to put money on it my guess would be Choplick then Hernandez then Heineman as to most likely to least.

 

[fatbeard]

I wish people would stop acting like the baseball luxury tax is a hard cap. It's a graduated soft cap with escalating year-over-year penalties that the Cubs can easily afford even now without their future TV deal. The Cubs were under the threshold last year and reset their clock. But no, one Buster Olney tweet and suddenly they're in dire financial straits.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wish people would stop acting like the baseball luxury tax is a hard cap. It's a graduated soft cap with escalating year-over-year penalties that the Cubs can easily afford even now without their future TV deal. The Cubs were under the threshold last year and reset their clock. But no, one Buster Olney tweet and suddenly they're in dire financial straits.

I don't think anyone is saying that (and I don't much Olney these days anyway). I think the Cubs have a number in mind for how much they want to go over the CBT. I think we can be sure that they won't cross the $246 mil second tier penalty which includes your first round draft selection moving down 10 picks but anything up to that is certainly in play.

 

[beckdawg]

So there's this...

He's either the biggest troll ever or he seriously wants to be in chicago.

 

[CSF77]

So there's this...

He's either the biggest troll ever or he seriously wants to be in chicago.

Little of both I believe.

 

[beckdawg]

Dodgers and Kershaw re-upped 3/$93 mil. If the best pitcher on the planet is only worth AAV of $31 mil I struggle to imagine Harper/Machado are getting more than that and more likely are under $30 mil/season.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think anyone is saying that (and I don't much Olney these days anyway). I think the Cubs have a number in mind for how much they want to go over the CBT. I think we can be sure that they won't cross the $246 mil second tier penalty which includes your first round draft selection moving down 10 picks but anything up to that is certainly in play.

I’ll believe it when I see it. Rickett’s have been running the Cubs like a business sense day 1. End of the day this was a purchase for Tom but his non baseball fan father. To this point it has been a solid investment. What has the investment increased to. 2.7B now? From this point on most deals aregoing to affect off of sales vs structural investments to the franchise.

End of the day his dad can flip the investment to another group. Making poor decisions on profits makes it a easier choice.

Sure Tom is a fan but it is his dad’s money

 

[anotheridiot]

Dodgers and Kershaw re-upped 3/$93 mil. If the best pitcher on the planet is only worth AAV of $31 mil I struggle to imagine Harper/Machado are getting more than that and more likely are under $30 mil/season.

I think it will finally put the emphasis where it belongs, players that start 160 games over the guy that starts 30

 

[chibears55]

I don't think anyone is saying that (and I don't much Olney these days anyway). I think the Cubs have a number in mind for how much they want to go over the CBT. I think we can be sure that they won't cross the $246 mil second tier penalty which includes your first round draft selection moving down 10 picks but anything up to that is certainly in play.

Right...
It not that they cant afford the money, it what they'll lose if they go over that 3rd tier

 

[CSF77]

Right...
It not that they cant afford the money, it what they'll lose if they go over that 3rd tier

tier 2 is a 40M gap. In this theory 30M buys a tier 1 player. So they can only run payroll up to a cap of 216M to be able to conceive inking Harper or Manny.

Cubs were at 196M est before today. Subtract 6M and add 20M. 210M. Add 30M 240M with a 6M re-investment window. Before 0 window with hard to move deals blocking or having to eat contract.

It really feels like they are going to have to move more contract if they go all in.

 

[chibears55]

tier 2 is a 40M gap. In this theory 30M buys a tier 1 player. So they can only run payroll up to a cap of 216M to be able to conceive inking Harper or Manny.

Cubs were at 196M est before today. Subtract 6M and add 20M. 210M. Add 30M 240M with a 6M re-investment window. Before 0 window with hard to move deals blocking or having to eat contract.

It really feels like they are going to have to move more contract if they go all in.

https://twitter.com/Michael_Cerami/status/1058375367902277632?s=19

Tier 3 of 246 is the magic number this year, theyll probably shoot to stay under that

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/Michael_Cerami/status/1058375367902277632?s=19

Tier 3 of 246 is the magic number this year, theyll probably shoot to stay under that

I’m not sure if his numbers are right though. He is well over cott’s est. he must be over weighing the 8 Arb cases

 

[Omeletpants]

This guy doesnt think Cubs will do much in FA this year

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

 

[TL1961]

Dodgers and Kershaw re-upped 3/$93 mil. If the best pitcher on the planet is only worth AAV of $31 mil I struggle to imagine Harper/Machado are getting more than that and more likely are under $30 mil/season.

Maybe they will because they’re better in the postse.....oh, wait. Nevermind

 

[TL1961]

One thing I will say is, I don’t expect Theo to do what many people expect.

Not in a “do it for shock value” way. Just that he has a plan and the “obvious move” isn’t necessarily a part of it.

When Price was a “slam dunk”, he went after Heyward as he had planned years before.

Stay under the tax threshold? Why? They can afford it.

I have long felt Harper would not be a Cub, but more recently felt he could be. Machado could be a great fit position-wise with Russell’s situation.

Just when you think Theo will zig, he'll zag.

I don’t think Hamels will be his big move. I think most would agree.

 

[TL1961]

I think it will finally put the emphasis where it belongs, players that start 160 games over the guy that starts 30

Give me the five best guys who “start 30”, and 8 avg players and I will beat your roster of the best 8 position players and 5 avg starters.