Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

This is one area, I think we agree. I agree with this because it's a first time thing and we really don't know what happened. At some point we need to still be that nation of forgiveness and have a willingness to give someone a second chance, provided the player appears to be contrite.

Also, I don't want to look at Cubs numbers from this past season, including Russell, as the instruction they were getting appears to have upset the apple cart.

It is a factor but you can’t ball them all up and make Davis the escape goat. Baez improved under him. So there is that.

Also I regards to Russell he did get worse but he was never at MLB AVG as a hitter. So it feels like a bias arguement over valuing his D. This is a over rated Barney repeat.

The thing is you can’t keep on bringing in D>O players. Then you end up with 1-2 runs scored per game again. They are sacrificing O in RF as it is at the cost of 23M. Then you sacrifice O at SS at 5M and so on eventually you have no O and no way out because of the negative value.

There is a reason why the O was absent. And why it picked up. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

 

[anotheridiot]

Moving Russell around is nonsensical.

You suggest moving him just to spite him?

Moving on from him due to the domestic issue would be understandable. Keeping him and Moving him around makes no sense at all. What on earth do we accomplish by doing that?

because part of breaking someone like him is letting him know that he is not the best player on the team and should not be getting the special treatment.

 

[Parade_Rain]

It is a factor but you can’t ball them all up and make Davis the escape goat. Baez improved under him. So there is that.

Also I regards to Russell he did get worse but he was never at MLB AVG as a hitter. So it feels like a bias arguement over valuing his D. This is a over rated Barney repeat.

The thing is you can’t keep on bringing in D>O players. Then you end up with 1-2 runs scored per game again. They are sacrificing O in RF as it is at the cost of 23M. Then you sacrifice O at SS at 5M and so on eventually you have no O and no way out because of the negative value.

There is a reason why the O was absent. And why it picked up. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

I don't disagree with you about Russell in the context of today's game from a defensive perspective. The more balls head to the OF, the less important defense at SS becomes.

 

[CSF77]

I can see a argument for a avg O and above avg D. Or a avg D and above avg O starting. You have a positive value and a neutral value. A positive and a negitive is a neutral result. Paying out millions on a neutral result is stupid. Which is why a term contract on Murphy is just as stupid.

I would rather start Zo and filter Happ in to get better. At least you are not dumping 3-5 mil on a neutral value. And you might get something out of it unexpected. With Russell you have years of negitive value and you are now paying a cost on it. It is bad business

 

[beckdawg]

I think people are skewing data to suit their argument re: Russell. He hit .285/.355/.407 over 277 PAs March-June for a 107 wRC+. That's not a tiny sample size and it's even better if you just look at May/June. The issue was he really got banged up in early july and frankly was never healthy after. That's not to say Russell doesn't have improvement to make but to sit here and act like the guy can't hit is just disingenuous. And it's not like he was the only cub who died after the all star break either. At least in his case we know specifically there were injuries involved.

If you want to argue the morality issue of having him return fine but don't turn this into a disingenuous look at his ability to hit.

 

[chibears55]

I want Whit Merrifield from the Royals to play 2B and leadoff [emoji6]

 

[beckdawg]

Something i haven't seen anyone suggest is the idea of trading Zobrist. While I get why you wouldn't want to do that given he's one of the better hitters the cubs had in 2018... he counts $14 mil toward the luxury tax and he's obviously not a long term piece. Having him on a 1 year $12.5 mil deal for some team would be a pretty good contract. You'd imagine at the very least he'd returning something useful back either in terms of a fringe top 100 type prospect or more likely in my eyes something like a useful LH reliever.

I'm not sure it's the first move I'd want to make but if you wanna cut a bit of money to sign Harper/Machado that is a fairly easy way to do it. If you go out and get Harper, you can move Happ full time to 2B with potentially him/Russell as your depth there. If you go out and get Machado and push Baez to 2B you're a little weaker in RF unless it's something like Baez to 3B, Bryant to RF, and again Happ/Russell at 2B.

 

[CSF77]

I want Whit Merrifield from the Royals to play 2B and leadoff [emoji6]

Me too

 

[CSF77]

Something i haven't seen anyone suggest is the idea of trading Zobrist. While I get why you wouldn't want to do that given he's one of the better hitters the cubs had in 2018... he counts $14 mil toward the luxury tax and he's obviously not a long term piece. Having him on a 1 year $12.5 mil deal for some team would be a pretty good contract. You'd imagine at the very least he'd returning something useful back either in terms of a fringe top 100 type prospect or more likely in my eyes something like a useful LH reliever.

I'm not sure it's the first move I'd want to make but if you wanna cut a bit of money to sign Harper/Machado that is a fairly easy way to do it. If you go out and get Harper, you can move Happ full time to 2B with potentially him/Russell as your depth there. If you go out and get Machado and push Baez to 2B you're a little weaker in RF unless it's something like Baez to 3B, Bryant to RF, and again Happ/Russell at 2B.

I’m not against it. It is difficult to trade positive value and versatility. The return would have to be excellent IMO

 

[CSF77]

I think people are skewing data to suit their argument re: Russell. He hit .285/.355/.407 over 277 PAs March-June for a 107 wRC+. That's not a tiny sample size and it's even better if you just look at May/June. The issue was he really got banged up in early july and frankly was never healthy after. That's not to say Russell doesn't have improvement to make but to sit here and act like the guy can't hit is just disingenuous. And it's not like he was the only cub who died after the all star break either. At least in his case we know specifically there were injuries involved.

If you want to argue the morality issue of having him return fine but don't turn this into a disingenuous look at his ability to hit.

Taking a hot streak out of 3 years of data is skewing also.

 

[beckdawg]

Taking a hot streak out of 3 years of data is skewing also.

3 months of data isn't a "hot streak." Streaks normalize after 100 PAs. That's nearly 3x that.

 

[chibears55]

Something i haven't seen anyone suggest is the idea of trading Zobrist. While I get why you wouldn't want to do that given he's one of the better hitters the cubs had in 2018... he counts $14 mil toward the luxury tax and he's obviously not a long term piece. Having him on a 1 year $12.5 mil deal for some team would be a pretty good contract. You'd imagine at the very least he'd returning something useful back either in terms of a fringe top 100 type prospect or more likely in my eyes something like a useful LH reliever.

I'm not sure it's the first move I'd want to make but if you wanna cut a bit of money to sign Harper/Machado that is a fairly easy way to do it. If you go out and get Harper, you can move Happ full time to 2B with potentially him/Russell as your depth there. If you go out and get Machado and push Baez to 2B you're a little weaker in RF unless it's something like Baez to 3B, Bryant to RF, and again Happ/Russell at 2B.

Id do it in a heartbeat..

I love Zobrist but yea, if their gonna make changes to benefit past 2019

Id definitely move him

 

[CSF77]

3 months of data isn't a "hot streak." Streaks normalize after 100 PAs. That's nearly 3x that.

It doesn’t over ride the 3 years going into it. The same argument holds for Almora. He was running unstainable production early year and it normalized later.

That is why you look at the whole year. A 107 run is a blip in a 80 year. Happ gave 106 in a down year. Russell has had a 90 a 95 a 85 and a 80. I believe the data proves below avg O.

If he had a 107 year then a down turn due to injury I would have never brought up the arguement because he has had a sustained impact from both sides.

At best he is 5% off from league avg. if his D is top end (which it is not anymore.) then yes your arguement is valid.

 

[CSF77]

Id do it in a heartbeat..

I love Zobrist but yea, if their gonna make changes to benefit past 2019

Id definitely move him

I wouldn’t move him in a dump. You have to remember 2 years ago he was nominated for a GG at 2B. Thus positive impact. 123 wRC+ psiitive impact. And the ability to fill many diffrent roles on a team. So in reality he is a impact addition or subtraction to ANY team.

Thus the I would want a result that makes sense to the Cubs.

If it was a tag along to shed Chatwood for a prospect package that basically removes 27M then they use that 27M on Manny sure it makes sense. Why not.

Now Dierkes at MLBTR are thinking that they need to add O and the Rickett could break their imaginary payroll but neither believe it. That is why they said Clutch to RF platoon Heyward and Almora and decide on Schwarber or Happ to trade. All in their jotcast and worth the read.

Getting into that: I feel that Schwarber is a positive impact now. The fact he has neutralized his negative D value while giving positive wRC+ means he is a worth while investment going forward.

 

[chibears55]

I wouldn’t move him in a dump. You have to remember 2 years ago he was nominated for a GG at 2B. Thus positive impact. 123 wRC+ psiitive impact. And the ability to fill many diffrent roles on a team. So in reality he is a impact addition or subtraction to ANY team.

Thus the I would want a result that makes sense to the Cubs.

If it was a tag along to shed Chatwood for a prospect package that basically removes 27M then they use that 27M on Manny sure it makes sense. Why not.

Now Dierkes at MLBTR are thinking that they need to add O and the Rickett could break their imaginary payroll but neither believe it. That is why they said Clutch to RF platoon Heyward and Almora and decide on Schwarber or Happ to trade. All in their jotcast and worth the read.

Getting into that: I feel that Schwarber is a positive impact now. The fact he has neutralized his negative D value while giving positive wRC+ means he is a worth while investment going forward.

My guess only team that would take Zobrist now, would be one that looking towards the postseason

So if it more about moving his money so they can add a Harper, then most theyll get back is a prospect or a reliever the trading team not counting on..

 

[Parade_Rain]

I wouldn’t move him in a dump. You have to remember 2 years ago he was nominated for a GG at 2B. Thus positive impact. 123 wRC+ psiitive impact. And the ability to fill many diffrent roles on a team. So in reality he is a impact addition or subtraction to ANY team.

Thus the I would want a result that makes sense to the Cubs.

If it was a tag along to shed Chatwood for a prospect package that basically removes 27M then they use that 27M on Manny sure it makes sense. Why not.

Now Dierkes at MLBTR are thinking that they need to add O and the Rickett could break their imaginary payroll but neither believe it. That is why they said Clutch to RF platoon Heyward and Almora and decide on Schwarber or Happ to trade. All in their jotcast and worth the read.

Getting into that: I feel that Schwarber is a positive impact now. The fact he has neutralized his negative D value while giving positive wRC+ means he is a worth while investment going forward.

I don't want Machado anywhere near the Cubs after watching him in the post-season. The guy is a total ****** on the field.

 

[beckdawg]

It doesn’t over ride the 3 years going into it. The same argument holds for Almora. He was running unstainable production early year and it normalized later.

That is why you look at the whole year. A 107 run is a blip in a 80 year. Happ gave 106 in a down year. Russell has had a 90 a 95 a 85 and a 80. I believe the data proves below avg O.

If he had a 107 year then a down turn due to injury I would have never brought up the arguement because he has had a sustained impact from both sides.

At best he is 5% off from league avg. if his D is top end (which it is not anymore.) then yes your arguement is valid.

But you're entirely ignoring development in your argument that he's an 80 wRC+ hitter which is my point. Javy Baez through the end of his age 24 season was a .255/.300/.427 hitter for a 89 wRC+. Russell through his age 24 season is a .242/.313/.392 hitter for a 88 wRC+. And I'll tell you right now that Russell as a career 8.4%/24.0% bb/k rate not to mention a 2018 8.6%/21.3% bb/k rate is a lot closer to making a break through than Baez was with a 2017 5.9%/28.3% bb/k rate and a 5.1%/29.3% career rate prior to 2018.

The point of this isn't to shit on Baez. The point is if you were paying attention to the last 3 months of 2017 he hit .290/.336/.504 for a wRC+ of 111. And what did Baez hit in 2018, .290/.326/.554. So, when you see Russell hit .285/.355/.407 over a 3 month span you should pay attention to it because it's very possibly a precursor to a break out.

 

[beckdawg]

Morosi brought up something kind of interesting....

In general, the Cubs seem more enamored with players becoming available via free agency in future offseasons -- such as Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado -- than those in the current class. However, it's noteworthy that Harper would welcome the opportunity to play with childhood friend Kris Bryant -- and reportedly has a dog named Wrigley.

I almost mentioned this before because the fangraphs prospect guys were talking about this awhile ago on their podcast on whether or not the Rockies re-sign Arenado. To cut to the chase, they think he's gone after 2019 and they move story to third and Brenden Rodgers comes in as their every day SS. My initial thought was what if they made him available? I'm not going to speculate on cost because you never know with these things. But he's a gold glove 3B who AFAIK is supposed to be a really good guy clubhouse wise. He's a high contact bat(15.5% career K rate). My one concern is he's not the same hitter outside of coors. For his career he's a .320/.374/.609 at Coors and .263/.318/.469 on the road. That's 129/108 wRC+ gap.

 

[CSF77]

My guess only team that would take Zobrist now, would be one that looking towards the postseason

So if it more about moving his money so they can add a Harper, then most theyll get back is a prospect or a reliever the trading team not counting on..

It felt stretch while typing it. I just believe it works with the Cubs. Serously the Rickett’s are a bad bet to have faith in oking a 400M deal.

 

[CSF77]

But you're entirely ignoring development in your argument that he's an 80 wRC+ hitter which is my point. Javy Baez through the end of his age 24 season was a .255/.300/.427 hitter for a 89 wRC+. Russell through his age 24 season is a .242/.313/.392 hitter for a 88 wRC+. And I'll tell you right now that Russell as a career 8.4%/24.0% bb/k rate not to mention a 2018 8.6%/21.3% bb/k rate is a lot closer to making a break through than Baez was with a 2017 5.9%/28.3% bb/k rate and a 5.1%/29.3% career rate prior to 2018.

The point of this isn't to shit on Baez. The point is if you were paying attention to the last 3 months of 2017 he hit .290/.336/.504 for a wRC+ of 111. And what did Baez hit in 2018, .290/.326/.554. So, when you see Russell hit .285/.355/.407 over a 3 month span you should pay attention to it because it's very possibly a precursor to a break out.

90=>95=>85=>80.
Vs
97=>94=>98=>131

I see stable then break out vs normal improvement to nose dive after personal issues and injury.

Look if this was a 600K investment vs a 5M investment then sure. But losing Apr then dealing with the fallout after for a maybe.

If anything it will worsen.

If he lost impact due to hidden issues what is going to happen when the MB hate crowd wakes up again? I think that we already walked this walk and the road is unstable.