Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

They need to play it up and force his 2019 Arb value down.

That's not how arbitration works. It's not like you're signing the guy to a contract. Arbitration works by the arbiter choosing either the figure the team offers or the figure the player demands based on the players performance prior. The arbiter wont care about the extenuating circumstances for 2019. If the cubs come in vastly lower than you typically would they are just going to lose the arbitration case.

 

[kapooncha]

If it was your personal family member I doubt anyone would pass it off. So let’s get that bit strait.

People always say that, "what if it was your family member that was abused." But it wasn't. Russell didn't hurt anyone in my family. It's a first strike penalty for him, and MLB punished him severely. He's going to serve out his suspension and then play ball again.

Or are you advocating that he never play baseball again? If you're advocating that he can play ball, just not in Chicago, I don't really understand your logic there.

 

[CSF77]

That's not how arbitration works. It's not like you're signing the guy to a contract. Arbitration works by the arbiter choosing either the figure the team offers or the figure the player demands based on the players performance prior. The arbiter wont care about the extenuating circumstances for 2019. If the cubs come in vastly lower than you typically would they are just going to lose the arbitration case.

I know how it works. That is why give a min amount that they can. The arberator most likely will side with the Cubs here if they are reasonable

 

[CSF77]

People always say that, "what if it was your family member that was abused." But it wasn't. Russell didn't hurt anyone in my family. It's a first strike penalty for him, and MLB punished him severely. He's going to serve out his suspension and then play ball again.

Or are you advocating that he never play baseball again? If you're advocating that he can play ball, just not in Chicago, I don't really understand your logic there.

What I don’t understand is your logic.

All I’m hearing is: not my problem. Don’t care.

But if that was your daughter or niece then you would want his head.

So what is the honest doffrence here? Honestly. From what I see is you are a little self absorbed and can’t see it as a black and white situation.

What he did was wrong.

He has no leverage going in.

He put up a 88 wRC+.

That is it. Getting into the personal stuff. Well not really a role model that I want to promote to my fan base.

So from my perspective: I would rather walk away honestly and let him suffer. Maybe another team will float him a deal. Maybe not but that 3 mil+ is better served elsewhere.

Now honestly as a fan: if he was a 130 wRC+!hitter like Baez it would be easier to forgive but to be honest I would not feel that way if it was just another guy that beat his wife. I problem want him removed from society.

So it really comes down to selfishness > morals

There is a right and a wrong. If we start to adjust our needle then what are we? Motivated by situation?

Pretty pathetic IMO. GET A BACK BONE

 

[beckdawg]

I know how it works. That is why give a min amount that they can. The arberator most likely will side with the Cubs here if they are reasonable

You apparently don't know how it works because that's not how the arbiter would decide it at all. Russell being suspended plays 0 part in this because the cubs aren't paying him for those games anyways. The point of all of this is to find a "fair" salary for his 2019 season and that is done solely based on what his previous results have been. It doesn't matter that the cubs wouldn't be able to play him until may because as I just said they aren't paying for those games anyways.

 

[beckdawg]

Speaking of which I'm not 100% sure on this but I also don't think the cubs would be on the hook for the luxury tax purposes either for the games Russell misses. For the sake of easy math here let's say he gets $5 mil in arbitration. I think he has 28 games left on his suspension. So that's roughly 17% of the season which if I'm not mistaken and I could be but if I'm not the cubs would only count ~$4.15 of the $5 mil toward the luxury tax.

 

[Castor76]

With Russell, it's either you get past it and have him back or you don't and want him gone from baseball entirely. As it stands, he's no more than the #7 hitter in a regular lineup anyway.

 

[kapooncha]

What I don’t understand is your logic.

All I’m hearing is: not my problem. Don’t care.

But if that was your daughter or niece then you would want his head.

So what is the honest doffrence here? Honestly. From what I see is you are a little self absorbed and can’t see it as a black and white situation.

What he did was wrong.

He has no leverage going in.

He put up a 88 wRC+.

That is it. Getting into the personal stuff. Well not really a role model that I want to promote to my fan base.

So from my perspective: I would rather walk away honestly and let him suffer. Maybe another team will float him a deal. Maybe not but that 3 mil+ is better served elsewhere.

Now honestly as a fan: if he was a 130 wRC+!hitter like Baez it would be easier to forgive but to be honest I would not feel that way if it was just another guy that beat his wife. I problem want him removed from society.

So it really comes down to selfishness > morals

There is a right and a wrong. If we start to adjust our needle then what are we? Motivated by situation?

Pretty pathetic IMO. GET A BACK BONE

Once again, it isn't my daughter or niece. As far as I'm concerned, this is a matter between him, his wife (ex-wife), and the police. I'm not involved at all in this, neither are you.

I don't understand your logic in regards to letting him walk. MLB has a policy in place for first time domestic abusers right? Cubs and Russell are following the policy. So I just can't wrap my head around why you don't want to follow that policy.

With regards to his wRC, last year wasn't a normal year for him. He obviously had a lot on his mind and my gut tells me that it was affecting his play. So I want to see him come back from the suspension and see what he can do. If he struggles again, then we can re-evaluate. But I don't see the need to do that now. You'd have to play Baez out of position at SS and then use Zo/Happ at 2B which doesn't excite me all that much.

 

[kapooncha]

With Russell, it's either you get past it and have him back or you don't and want him gone from baseball entirely. As it stands, he's no more than the #7 hitter in a regular lineup anyway.

Russell is still a very young player. He was a 7.6 WAR player in 2015 and 2016. He struggled in 2017 and 2018 but my gut tells me that had something to do with his personal situation.

What I don't get is why people are willing to say that Schwarber, Happ, and Almora are all really young and can get better, but they don't think that Russell can get better. Makes no sense to me.

 

[TL1961]

Putting aside any comments on the abuse for now.....

1. It is crazy to call him just a utility infielder. SS with his defensive ability do not grow on trees. Defense at SS is far more valuable than many fans realize in the offense is everything age we are in.

2. "no better than a #7 hitter anyway". Why is that a problem? Somebody bats 7th. If it's a very good defensive SS, I am OK with that.

3. "Arbitrator".

 

[CSF77]

Russell is still a very young player. He was a 7.6 WAR player in 2015 and 2016. He struggled in 2017 and 2018 but my gut tells me that had something to do with his personal situation.

What I don't get is why people are willing to say that Schwarber, Happ, and Almora are all really young and can get better, but they don't think that Russell can get better. Makes no sense to me.

Russell has been through injury to his shoulder. That caused him to DL at the end of 2017. 2018 he was not as injured but held a 80 wRC+

Now I know that you are over valuing him on his D. But if you look at his O it has never broke 100 wRC+.

So with this in mind. He is between 10-20% worse than a avg major league hitter. And he will be set up to earn anywhere between 3-5M playing less quality O to Baez or Zobrist. Who both hold 130 wRC+. Or 30% better than a avg MLB player.

I am honestly fine if he gets the low end side and acts the UI role. MLBTR thinks they trade him. I do also because he is worse than both Zobrist and Baez. Even at his best he was below avg as a hitter and he has worsen as a player.

So your arguement is false. Schwarber and Almora both improves this year. Even Happ with all of his flaws is a better hitter. At the end of the day if you can’t hit on par you are a bench utility. Joe has miss used him and has caused the lacking of O in his decisions.

 

[kapooncha]

Russell has been through injury to his shoulder. That caused him to DL at the end of 2017. 2018 he was not as injured but held a 80 wRC+

Now I know that you are over valuing him on his D. But if you look at his O it has never broke 100 wRC+.

So with this in mind. He is between 10-20% worse than a avg major league hitter. And he will be set up to earn anywhere between 3-5M playing less quality O to Baez or Zobrist. Who both hold 130 wRC+. Or 30% better than a avg MLB player.

I am honestly fine if he gets the low end side and acts the UI role. MLBTR thinks they trade him. I do also because he is worse than both Zobrist and Baez. Even at his best he was below avg as a hitter and he has worsen as a player.

So your arguement is false. Schwarber and Almora both improves this year. Even Happ with all of his flaws is a better hitter. At the end of the day if you can’t hit on par you are a bench utility. Joe has miss used him and has caused the lacking of O in his decisions.

Zobrist is in his late 30s. He can't play everyday and he's going to fall off a cliff at some point, maybe next season.

So say you trade Russell and Zo falls off or gets injured. Then what do you do? Well you don't do shit cause you're fucked, game over. Don't even mention Happ or Bote because nobody will take you seriously at that point.

 

[CSF77]

Zobrist is in his late 30s. He can't play everyday and he's going to fall off a cliff at some point, maybe next season.

So say you trade Russell and Zo falls off or gets injured. Then what do you do? Well you don't do shit cause you're fucked, game over. Don't even mention Happ or Bote because nobody will take you seriously at that point.

Starting at the top: you are assuming Zo will be injured. So you have a bias opinion. I could say what if they get stuck with 5M and his shoulder goes out. Then you are in that same box but with a 5M hit. Will it happen? About the same chance that Zo goes grey at the ancient age of 38. Funny

But what you do? Well they did pick up Reinheimer who can play SS. So my biggest concern was back up SS not 2B. But getting to 2B they have LaStella and Bote under contract. Happ I believe will get traded also. I felt that he should have been focusing at 2B more than CF. Let’s be honest if he was able to be AVG D because Murphy was fine there in his stint. he is also far below avg but the bat justified it.

So I would target a young controlled UI type myself that is pre Arb. Using Happ and Russell as trade bait. Basically someone who can fill Baez’s old role.

In house option. If Happ is able to make the needed adjustments to cut his SO’s and not be a void hitting RH then he might be worth seeing action at 2B again. Again Murphy was there and they were playing their best baseball then. So it is more of a O position.

 

[anotheridiot]

Russell has been through injury to his shoulder. That caused him to DL at the end of 2017. 2018 he was not as injured but held a 80 wRC+

Now I know that you are over valuing him on his D. But if you look at his O it has never broke 100 wRC+.

So with this in mind. He is between 10-20% worse than a avg major league hitter. And he will be set up to earn anywhere between 3-5M playing less quality O to Baez or Zobrist. Who both hold 130 wRC+. Or 30% better than a avg MLB player.

I am honestly fine if he gets the low end side and acts the UI role. MLBTR thinks they trade him. I do also because he is worse than both Zobrist and Baez. Even at his best he was below avg as a hitter and he has worsen as a player.

So your arguement is false. Schwarber and Almora both improves this year. Even Happ with all of his flaws is a better hitter. At the end of the day if you can’t hit on par you are a bench utility. Joe has miss used him and has caused the lacking of O in his decisions.

But its still the trust you have in the guy. You know he did not come clean about the problems when they first came to light. We also know he has a lingering issue with his hand that has him losing control of his bat ALOT. I dont think anyone throws their bat after a swing as much as Russell does. That tends to show that he has had problems with that finger or hand for a longer time than what came about last year.

So just that side of it, can you trust him to tell you that his shoulder is hurt or his finger or wrist whatever issues need attention or is he just afraid of losing his job and his position with Javy here? He is off the first 28 or whatever games, the new girl will probably give birth by then, how soon will she put up with him?

This is part of why I say to move Russell around as well, because if he cannot take it and is going to be having anger issues, you kind of want to know before you make a long term decision. When you have MVP and MVP candidates willing to go wherever they are needed, (even though it costs one a gold glove) then who is Addison to say I only play shortstop? No I in team.

 

[kapooncha]

Starting at the top: you are assuming Zo will be injured. So you have a bias opinion. I could say what if they get stuck with 5M and his shoulder goes out. Then you are in that same box but with a 5M hit. Will it happen? About the same chance that Zo goes grey at the ancient age of 38. Funny

But what you do? Well they did pick up Reinheimer who can play SS. So my biggest concern was back up SS not 2B. But getting to 2B they have LaStella and Bote under contract. Happ I believe will get traded also. I felt that he should have been focusing at 2B more than CF. Let’s be honest if he was able to be AVG D because Murphy was fine there in his stint. he is also far below avg but the bat justified it.

So I would target a young controlled UI type myself that is pre Arb. Using Happ and Russell as trade bait. Basically someone who can fill Baez’s old role.

In house option. If Happ is able to make the needed adjustments to cut his SO’s and not be a void hitting RH then he might be worth seeing action at 2B again. Again Murphy was there and they were playing their best baseball then. So it is more of a O position.

LaStella and Bote? You can't be serious dude. Cubs are trying to win NOW man.

And with Zobrist, I said injury or his play drops significantly. You think that's crazy? You think he's going to produce like he did last season if he has to play everyday? C'mon man.

 

[TL1961]

Russell has been through injury to his shoulder. That caused him to DL at the end of 2017. 2018 he was not as injured but held a 80 wRC+

Now I know that you are over valuing him on his D. But if you look at his O it has never broke 100 wRC+.

So with this in mind. He is between 10-20% worse than a avg major league hitter. And he will be set up to earn anywhere between 3-5M playing less quality O to Baez or Zobrist. Who both hold 130 wRC+. Or 30% better than a avg MLB player.

I am honestly fine if he gets the low end side and acts the UI role. MLBTR thinks they trade him. I do also because he is worse than both Zobrist and Baez. Even at his best he was below avg as a hitter and he has worsen as a player.

So your arguement is false. Schwarber and Almora both improves this year. Even Happ with all of his flaws is a better hitter. At the end of the day if you can’t hit on par you are a bench utility. Joe has miss used him and has caused the lacking of O in his decisions.

Russell is a starting SS and a very good one defensively. At a young age he had a 99 rbi season and won playoff games with his bat.

You are comparing Happ to him by pointing out offense.

Happ has nowhere near the value Russell does defensively, so he would have to be far far superior offensively to have equal value.

Better way of looking at this is: If replacing Happ, there are a lot of people who you could acquire who would be comparable. Play some second or OF at a decent level, and hit at a decent level. No better than avg defensively.

Try to replace a starting top defensive SS. Not many equal players. You can’t plug in a poor glove and think you can offset it with a guy who hits more. That is recipe for disaster.

 

[TL1961]

But its still the trust you have in the guy. You know he did not come clean about the problems when they first came to light. We also know he has a lingering issue with his hand that has him losing control of his bat ALOT. I dont think anyone throws their bat after a swing as much as Russell does. That tends to show that he has had problems with that finger or hand for a longer time than what came about last year.

So just that side of it, can you trust him to tell you that his shoulder is hurt or his finger or wrist whatever issues need attention or is he just afraid of losing his job and his position with Javy here? He is off the first 28 or whatever games, the new girl will probably give birth by then, how soon will she put up with him?

This is part of why I say to move Russell around as well, because if he cannot take it and is going to be having anger issues, you kind of want to know before you make a long term decision. When you have MVP and MVP candidates willing to go wherever they are needed, (even though it costs one a gold glove) then who is Addison to say I only play shortstop? No I in team.

Moving Russell around is nonsensical.

You suggest moving him just to spite him?

Moving on from him due to the domestic issue would be understandable. Keeping him and Moving him around makes no sense at all. What on earth do we accomplish by doing that?

 

[CSF77]

LaStella and Bote? You can't be serious dude. Cubs are trying to win NOW man.

And with Zobrist, I said injury or his play drops significantly. You think that's crazy? You think he's going to produce like he did last season if he has to play everyday? C'mon man.

wRC+

Baez: 131
Zobrist: 123
Happ: 106
Bote: 95
La Stella: 86
Russell: 80

So lets keep this in perspective. Russell is the worst hitter of the above.


Now my first choice is trade out for a sensible 'back up'

but

my 2nd choice is honestly Happ...wow I just said it but after seeing Murphy out there and the O picked up ya.

2B has always been a spot that defaulted as a failed SS prospect with a quality bat. Baez has spoiled us. but Castro is pretty much the traditional situation.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Once again, it isn't my daughter or niece. As far as I'm concerned, this is a matter between him, his wife (ex-wife), and the police. I'm not involved at all in this, neither are you.

I don't understand your logic in regards to letting him walk. MLB has a policy in place for first time domestic abusers right? Cubs and Russell are following the policy. So I just can't wrap my head around why you don't want to follow that policy.

With regards to his wRC, last year wasn't a normal year for him. He obviously had a lot on his mind and my gut tells me that it was affecting his play. So I want to see him come back from the suspension and see what he can do. If he struggles again, then we can re-evaluate. But I don't see the need to do that now. You'd have to play Baez out of position at SS and then use Zo/Happ at 2B which doesn't excite me all that much.

This is one area, I think we agree. I agree with this because it's a first time thing and we really don't know what happened. At some point we need to still be that nation of forgiveness and have a willingness to give someone a second chance, provided the player appears to be contrite.

Also, I don't want to look at Cubs numbers from this past season, including Russell, as the instruction they were getting appears to have upset the apple cart.

 

[kapooncha]

This is one area, I think we agree. I agree with this because it's a first time thing and we really don't know what happened. At some point we need to still be that nation of forgiveness and have a willingness to give someone a second chance, provided the player appears to be contrite.

Also, I don't want to look at Cubs numbers from this past season, including Russell, as the instruction they were getting appears to have upset the apple cart.

Good point about Davis. I wasn't even factoring that in but its worth some consideration.