Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

The only plan that makes sense is trading Chatwood.

Heyward is unmovable. But a OF of Schwarber Almora and Heyward is a wRC+ avg of 100. So sure it is cost efficient. About 8M per position but lacking.

Harper makes the most sense on the F/A market but cost wise it makes no sense.

So I believe they have to flip Chatwood for a OF upgrade. That makes sense to me. To move the contract needed to slip 30M under 246M will hurt more than help in 2019. Teams in general don’t want negative value players in general. But absorbing a contract to boot is bad business. But a bad deal flip is common.

 

[chibears55]

The only plan that makes sense is trading Chatwood.

Heyward is unmovable. But a OF of Schwarber Almora and Heyward is a wRC+ avg of 100. So sure it is cost efficient. About 8M per position but lacking.

Harper makes the most sense on the F/A market but cost wise it makes no sense.

So I believe they have to flip Chatwood for a OF upgrade. That makes sense to me. To move the contract needed to slip 30M under 246M will hurt more than help in 2019. Teams in general don’t want negative value players in general. But absorbing a contract to boot is bad business. But a bad deal flip is common.

Why is Heyward untradeable

 

[Castor76]

This is where some or all of you may hunt me down to kill me or put me in a mental hospital.

The drawback of any huge deal is what it will do to the future payroll flexibility of the team. So, unless AAV is what's put towards the CBT, why not bite the bullet hugely and pay a ton of money in the first year of the deal? If the team is already teetering with a threshold, what's to stop them from going vastly over it, absorbing all the hit in one season, and then having things go back to a "normal" cap hit for the remainder. If a team had the available funds, why not offer, in this case Harper, the 400 M over 14 years and pay him 270 M in the first season leaving the remaining 13 years at 10 M a year. Maybe ego would stop the player from taking the salary at the level for the rest, but the idea would be pay a massive amount in year one with the rest being a very manageable number thereafter.

This is all predicated on a team being able to actually afford it in the one year. But then the price is paid and never felt again as far as the impact to payroll and draft picks.

<ducks for cover>

 

[CSF77]

why is heyward untradeable

23m aav

 

[CSF77]

This is where some or all of you may hunt me down to kill me or put me in a mental hospital.

The drawback of any huge deal is what it will do to the future payroll flexibility of the team. So, unless AAV is what's put towards the CBT, why not bite the bullet hugely and pay a ton of money in the first year of the deal? If the team is already teetering with a threshold, what's to stop them from going vastly over it, absorbing all the hit in one season, and then having things go back to a "normal" cap hit for the remainder. If a team had the available funds, why not offer, in this case Harper, the 400 M over 14 years and pay him 270 M in the first season leaving the remaining 13 years at 10 M a year. Maybe ego would stop the player from taking the salary at the level for the rest, but the idea would be pay a massive amount in year one with the rest being a very manageable number thereafter.

This is all predicated on a team being able to actually afford it in the one year. But then the price is paid and never felt again as far as the impact to payroll and draft picks.

<ducks for cover>

When Bryant gets into his F/A year and they can’t carry 2 Boras players avg 30M per then you will know.

 

[chibears55]

23m aav

It not 23 aav

19 20 mil opt out
20 21 mil
21 21mil
22 22 mil
22 22 mil

So, depending on who wants him, it not really that much for a 29 YO GG outfielder with over .700 OPS

What average now, probably 16 to 20 per

 

[Castor76]

They did not go and sign Mike Trout or Stanton to win the first one, The big deal they made did not even make a difference on the field. Now it will take Harper to win another one?

Neither of those players has ever been a Free Agent. I also seem to remember Gold Glove Defense and the rally talk that most every player says took the team over the hump. I think the move would be more a sign to the team that the organization is not just resting on the laurels of 2016.

 

[chibears55]

This is where some or all of you may hunt me down to kill me or put me in a mental hospital.

The drawback of any huge deal is what it will do to the future payroll flexibility of the team. So, unless AAV is what's put towards the CBT, why not bite the bullet hugely and pay a ton of money in the first year of the deal? If the team is already teetering with a threshold, what's to stop them from going vastly over it, absorbing all the hit in one season, and then having things go back to a "normal" cap hit for the remainder. If a team had the available funds, why not offer, in this case Harper, the 400 M over 14 years and pay him 270 M in the first season leaving the remaining 13 years at 10 M a year. Maybe ego would stop the player from taking the salary at the level for the rest, but the idea would be pay a massive amount in year one with the rest being a very manageable number thereafter.

This is all predicated on a team being able to actually afford it in the one year. But then the price is paid and never felt again as far as the impact to payroll and draft picks.

<ducks for cover>

He may want or Boras may want 13/14 years at 400 mil

Reality, there isnt 1 team out there that will come close to offering that

He wont get offered more then 10 yrs with options attached to it and probably not much more then 300 total..
and i can see the breakdown having the larger sum more towards middle and end of the deal

That my prediction

 

[Castor76]

When Bryant gets into his F/A year and they can’t carry 2 Boras players avg 30M per then you will know.

Why not? The cost of Harper would be 10 or 15 M per year then and unless they change the rule, they could do the same thing for Bryant.

 

[Castor76]

He may want or Boras may want 13/14 years at 400 mil

Reality, there isnt 1 team out there that will come close to offering that

He wont get offered more then 10 yrs with options attached to it and probably not much more then 300 total..
and i can see the breakdown having the larger sum more towards middle and end of the deal

That my prediction

You don't think Boras is going to want the richest deal in baseball history? Maybe. All it's going to take is for one team to think another will do it. But someone tell me why a team wouldn't or shouldn't just load all the penalty into one season's worth of payroll and then move on to life as normal. Philly is possibly desperate, though I think they are more set on Machado. The Dodgers might feel it too being in the Seires the past two years and coming up short. You never know what the Yankees will do. The Giants might think he puts them back over the top along with the Angels or Mariners. Then Washington could go for it.

And anybody that's wanting either Harper or Machado will be even more desperate.

 

[chibears55]

You don't think Boras is going to want the richest deal in baseball history? Maybe. All it's going to take is for one team to think another will do it. But someone tell me why a team wouldn't or shouldn't just load all the penalty into one season's worth of payroll and then move on to life as normal. Philly is possibly desperate, though I think they are more set on Machado. The Dodgers might feel it too being in the Seires the past two years and coming up short. You never know what the Yankees will do. The Giants might think he puts them back over the top along with the Angels or Mariners. Then Washington could go for it.

And anybody that's wanting either Harper or Machado will be even more desperate.

Like i said, he may want it
Doubt very much he gets it

 

[beckdawg]

This is where some or all of you may hunt me down to kill me or put me in a mental hospital.

The drawback of any huge deal is what it will do to the future payroll flexibility of the team. So, unless AAV is what's put towards the CBT, why not bite the bullet hugely and pay a ton of money in the first year of the deal? If the team is already teetering with a threshold, what's to stop them from going vastly over it, absorbing all the hit in one season, and then having things go back to a "normal" cap hit for the remainder. If a team had the available funds, why not offer, in this case Harper, the 400 M over 14 years and pay him 270 M in the first season leaving the remaining 13 years at 10 M a year. Maybe ego would stop the player from taking the salary at the level for the rest, but the idea would be pay a massive amount in year one with the rest being a very manageable number thereafter.

This is all predicated on a team being able to actually afford it in the one year. But then the price is paid and never felt again as far as the impact to payroll and draft picks.

<ducks for cover>

Wouldn't matter. If you put 99 mil in year 1 and 1 mil in year two of a 2 year deal for the luxury tax that counts $50 mil for both years. Additionally, any deal that big is going to include opt outs which just shoots you in the foot putting all the money before the opt out.

If you want to game the luxury tax you just offer him a 15-20 year deal which obviously he's not going to fulfill and spread the money out that way

 

[beckdawg]

Patrick Mooney
✔
@PJ_Mooney
It would be risky and controversial. There has been no guarantee or final decision yet. But the Cubs are seriously considering bringing back Addison Russell after his domestic abuse suspension, sources told The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/631232/2018...ssessing-the-messy-addison-russell-situation/

Pretty much what I thought would happen.

 

[chibears55]

Pretty much what I thought would happen.

I take that with a grain of salt...

Mooney and his "sources" are hardly right

Sounds like something that usually said before you move a player

I get your point of holding onto him to get more value for him in season, i just personally think it better to move on from him before ST starts if that the plan

 

[TL1961]

Gold gloves have been awarded, and Javy did not win.

They gave it to LeMahieu.

At least Cards fans will be pissed that Wong didn't get it.

Rizzo tied with Freeman for first at first,

Javy will not get one while splitting time at so many positions. He also needs to reduce his errors on plays where he tries to do too much. But there was not better play from Lemahieu. No way, no how.

 

[Castor76]

Wouldn't matter. If you put 99 mil in year 1 and 1 mil in year two of a 2 year deal for the luxury tax that counts $50 mil for both years. Additionally, any deal that big is going to include opt outs which just shoots you in the foot putting all the money before the opt out.

If you want to game the luxury tax you just offer him a 15-20 year deal which obviously he's not going to fulfill and spread the money out that way

That's why I said "unless the AAV is what's counted towards the CBT." And the deal would only include an Opt out if you gave them. He's probably going to want one or two

 

[Castor76]

I take that with a grain of salt...

Mooney and his "sources" are hardly right

Sounds like something that usually said before you move a player

I get your point of holding onto him to get more value for him in season, i just personally think it better to move on from him before ST starts if that the plan

I also think they'll move on from Russell, but his value is nil right now.

 

[beckdawg]

I take that with a grain of salt...

Mooney and his "sources" are hardly right

Sounds like something that usually said before you move a player

I get your point of holding onto him to get more value for him in season, i just personally think it better to move on from him before ST starts if that the plan

I'm telling you guys I am pretty sure that given theo's comments he's going to play the "it's out job to help rehabilitate him" card. Theo isn't someone who plays with subterfuge. He's a straight shooter and he talked about helping both Russell's wife and Russell himself. Just saying people need to be prepared for that because whether it's right or wrong I am pretty sure it's coming.

And that's setting aside whether or not it's the right baseball move. Because if we look at it as a pure baseball move it's a terrible move to get rid of him. You're not going to find a team who'll give you anything of value for him right now. You're not going to know whether you've signed Harper/Machado before the non-tender date. So, just non-tendering him would be terrible because you create more team needs on a team already tight with money and you're not going to replace the value Russell provides for the cost he'll make in arbitration.

I think there's maybe a slim chance something happens in the winter meetings but I also think it's unlikely because if you're wanting to acquire him you're thinking of him as your SS of the future. But the problem there is you have no SS until May so you have to then also have someone else behind him for a month. That's why I've always said it makes far more sense that if you're going to move him you do it in july. He'll have more value and the cubs themselves will know more about their situation. I mean given the way Javy plays what if he goes down a la Bryant? Waiting until July lets you assess the situation you're in and move him for things you need then that you may not realize you need in december or conversely should Javy go down maybe what you need is a middle infielder who can play defense which is what he is. In other words, if you're selling lowish, at least do it when you know what you're going to need for a playoff run in july.

 

[kapooncha]

I take that with a grain of salt...

Mooney and his "sources" are hardly right

Sounds like something that usually said before you move a player

I get your point of holding onto him to get more value for him in season, i just personally think it better to move on from him before ST starts if that the plan

Why do you hate Russell so much?

 

[anotheridiot]

Gold gloves have been awarded, and Javy did not win.

They gave it to LeMahieu.

At least Cards fans will be pissed that Wong didn't get it.

Rizzo tied with Freeman for first at first,

Javy will not get one while splitting time at so many positions. He also needs to reduce his errors on plays where he tries to do too much. But there was not better play from Lemahieu. No way, no how.

Officially, only 102 games for Javy at 2B. If it was just when he moved to SS, it would have been different, but so many starts at third I dont know what people were expecting. I remember 2016 when Joe kept the infield the same and got the whole crew to the all star game. You get Javy 130-140 at one position he will win the gold glove.