Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

Following Jim Hickey’s departure from the team, the Cubs may have found a favorite to fill their vacant pitching coach position from within the organization. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that Tommy Hottovy, who currently serves as the club’s run prevention coordinator, has emerged as a leading candidate to seize the job, although no final decision has been made. Just 37, Hottovy has endeared himself to players and coaches up and down the organization, and his presence may help quell some of the uncertainty that comes with Hickey’s unexpected resignation. He has been touted for his communication skills and analytical inclination, and his working relationship with catching coach Mike Borzello has been cited as part of the reason for the team’s sustained pitching success despite coaching instability. Hottovy and Borzello have been credited with tapping into the potential of numerous pitchers over the years, fueling breakouts from Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and others. Furthermore, he would provide a familiarity that President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein covets, much like newly-hired hitting coach Anthony Iapoce, who worked in the Cubs organization from 2013-15.

 

[CSF77]

Yup who needs Hendricks for 4/80 when we can pay Garbish $22m per year.

20M is steep for Kyle.

Dallas Keuchel – Nationals. Four years, $82MM with a Cy Young. Predication.

More realistic:

Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox. Four years, $60MM. Honestly 15M per is a realistic AAV for him.

Darvish has put up 19.1 fWAR. 2018 was a outlier vs a normal year.

I see Kyle as a 3 WAR pitcher. Yu is a 4-5 WAR pitcher. And that is why 1 guy gets paid 20M and the other doesn't.

For Kyle to get into the business he needs to do this:

3. Patrick Corbin – Yankees. Six years, $129MM. No player in recent memory has done more to increase his value in one season than Corbin. The 29-year-old southpaw dominated in his 200 innings for the Diamondbacks this year, posting a 3.15 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 in 33 starts. Corbin had a breakout year in 2013 for the D’Backs but went down for Tommy John surgery in March 2014. He had some stumbles post-surgery, particularly in 2016, but progressed from solid in ’17 to possibly one of the five best starting pitchers in baseball this year. Corbin’s velocity took a dip in May, setting off alarm bells, but it didn’t seem to affect his performance and actually crept back up past 92 miles per hour in the second half. Corbin ramped his slider usage up past 40 percent this year to great success.

Back in April, before Corbin seemed like a potential $100MM guy, the pitcher admitted to Bob Nightengale of USA Today that it would “definitely be great” to pitch for his childhood team, the Yankees. The Yankees have the money and the need, but teams like the Astros, Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants, Angels, and Twins make sense too. With age on his side, we foresee a bidding war taking Corbin up past Yu Darvish money. He has been tagged with a qualifying offer by the Diamondbacks.

 

[CSF77]

Kimbrel not an option for Cubs?
Nov. 20: The Cubs' bullpen faltered down the stretch last season, contributing to a second-place finish in the NL Central and a loss to the Rockies in the NL Wild Card Game. NBC Sports Chicago's Tony Andracki writes that the club will be focused on adding bullpen depth so that its relievers aren't overused, which the front office sees as a big reason for the late-season struggles.

While Craig Kimbrel is the premier closer on the free-agent market, Andracki suggests that given president of baseball operations Theo Epstein's track record in free agency, it is unlikely Chicago will spend big on a closer. Andracki sees the club going after other late-inning relievers instead, which potentially includes Zach Britton and Andrew Miller.

"It's more likely we'll see the Cubs make some smaller moves in free agency (maybe bringing back Jesse Chavez?) and potentially acquire an impact reliever via trade (a la Wade Davis for Jorge Soler two years back)," Andracki writes.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-2019-mlb-free-agents-and-trade-rumors/c-297641124

 

[kapooncha]

Following Jim Hickey’s departure from the team, the Cubs may have found a favorite to fill their vacant pitching coach position from within the organization. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that Tommy Hottovy, who currently serves as the club’s run prevention coordinator, has emerged as a leading candidate to seize the job, although no final decision has been made. Just 37, Hottovy has endeared himself to players and coaches up and down the organization, and his presence may help quell some of the uncertainty that comes with Hickey’s unexpected resignation. He has been touted for his communication skills and analytical inclination, and his working relationship with catching coach Mike Borzello has been cited as part of the reason for the team’s sustained pitching success despite coaching instability. Hottovy and Borzello have been credited with tapping into the potential of numerous pitchers over the years, fueling breakouts from Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and others. Furthermore, he would provide a familiarity that President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein covets, much like newly-hired hitting coach Anthony Iapoce, who worked in the Cubs organization from 2013-15.

Run Prevention Coordinator? That's a thing? lol

 

[CSF77]

Run Prevention Coordinator? That's a thing? lol

First I've heard of it.

 

[CSF77]

I'm kinda fine with them targeting Miller or Briton and seeing if the can pull off a trade with Russell. IDK honestly though. If Almora has a break out it really solves the lead off issue going forward.

I see their biggest need as bull pen depth so Miller I believe becomes the 40th man. Going any further would a trade off the 40 or strait DFA of Tseng. Tsng might happen anyways to add more AAAA pen arms anyways later.

 

[Omeletpants]

Run Prevention Coordinator? That's a thing? lol

I thought Heyward was the run prevention coordinator

 

[Castor76]

I'm kinda fine with them targeting Miller or Briton and seeing if the can pull off a trade with Russell. IDK honestly though. If Almora has a break out it really solves the lead off issue going forward.

I see their biggest need as bull pen depth so Miller I believe becomes the 40th man. Going any further would a trade off the 40 or strait DFA of Tseng. Tsng might happen anyways to add more AAAA pen arms anyways later.

I know the sample size is pretty small, but in just over 230 PA in the leadoff spot, Almora has a .350+ OBP.

 

[DanTown]

Here's something I'm curious about.... where's the extension for Hendricks? He's under control for 2 more years and you really haven't heard much if any discussion about it. He's only made ~$6 mil over his first 4 seasons and unlike Bryant/Schwarber...etc he wasn't a first round pick. He was an 8th round pick so you're likely only talking about some where between $10-100k bonus. He also isn't much of a merchandizing type guy as far as i'm aware. So, he would appear from the outside to be the prototypical type of guy to extend. You add into that the fact he's not really a typical top tier pitcher who's got crazy stuff and the fact ya know... he's a pitcher and they get hurt all the time and it seems likely there's a deal to be had there.

I think the main problem is any deal would have a drastically higher AAV than his 2019 salary so you're adding to the tax number for 2021-2023 savings but the money is tight in this year. The second issue is that the Kyle Hendrick's of the world are likely to see their market fall, not rise, as teams continue to try and stockpile bullpen arms. Kyle is dependable and takes the ball most times and gets you 30 starts and 180 innings at a decent rate (3.3 - 3.8 FIP) but that's not "wow, we have to overpay for him" type stuff.

I think the answer is use his two arbitration years and then decide on where his market is and maybe you can keep him cheaper then than it likely would even cost now to sign him to an extension.

 

[chibears55]

I think the main problem is any deal would have a drastically higher AAV than his 2019 salary so you're adding to the tax number for 2021-2023 savings but the money is tight in this year. The second issue is that the Kyle Hendrick's of the world are likely to see their market fall, not rise, as teams continue to try and stockpile bullpen arms. Kyle is dependable and takes the ball most times and gets you 30 starts and 180 innings at a decent rate (3.3 - 3.8 FIP) but that's not "wow, we have to overpay for him" type stuff.

I think the answer is use his two arbitration years and then decide on where his market is and maybe you can keep him cheaper then than it likely would even cost now to sign him to an extension.

It wouldn't surprise me if in a couple years we start seeing more 4 man rotations of guys just going 4-5 innings and then using bullpen guys who can go 2+

 

[CSF77]

It wouldn't surprise me if in a couple years we start seeing more 4 man rotations of guys just going 4-5 innings and then using bullpen guys who can go 2+

More likely a 6 man rotation

 

[chibears55]

More likely a 6 man rotation

Why would a team pay for an extra starter...

Go 4 man, limit pitches and innings so they can go on 3 days rest or if needed have a bullpen day..

Stock up the bullpen (cheaper in cost) with arms that can go multiple innings

 

[CSF77]

Why would a team pay for an extra starter...

Go 4 man, limit pitches and innings so they can go on 3 days rest or if needed have a bullpen day..

Stock up the bullpen (cheaper in cost) with arms that can go multiple innings

6 man is 27 GS each. Works out even.

Getting 200 IP is avg 7.4 IP per start.

So let’s say the Avg is 7 IP per game. With 5 days off this is realistic as long as the starter doesn’t choke. But if that happens you have a 7th guy that can pitch 5 innings.

So pen 6+ 1 guy that can solve a **** up.

Then on avg the pen needs to cover 2 innings. So say 4 guys to keep the arms fresh.

11 pitchers.

That gives 1-2 roster spots for adjustments.


But I see it as you invest into your rotation and give them more time off but make them more of a active party in the result of their start. I would tossout pitch counts also. Makes them pusses

 

[chibears55]

6 man is 27 GS each. Works out even.

Getting 200 IP is avg 7.4 IP per start.

So let’s say the Avg is 7 IP per game. With 5 days off this is realistic as long as the starter doesn’t choke. But if that happens you have a 7th guy that can pitch 5 innings.

So pen 6+ 1 guy that can solve a **** up.

Then on avg the pen needs to cover 2 innings. So say 4 guys to keep the arms fresh.

11 pitchers.

That gives 1-2 roster spots for adjustments.


But I see it as you invest into your rotation and give them more time off but make them more of a active party in the result of their start. I would tossout pitch counts also. Makes them pusses

That opposite of what I said...

I said I see SP in a couple years going shorter stints..
4 to 5 IP, limiting pitches per starts

Why I said 4 starter

 

[CSF77]

That opposite of what I said...

I said I see SP in a couple years going shorter stints..
4 to 5 IP, limiting pitches per starts

Why I said 4 starter

It just retraining arms. Japan runs a 6 man and it has been fine. They come over and their arms go under the knife regularly

 

[chibears55]

It just retraining arms. Japan runs a 6 man and it has been fine. They come over and their arms go under the knife regularly

Ok......

 

[CSF77]

Ok......

I think that you are approaching it from a $. I’m looking at it as your best pitchers are your starters and pulling them early places worse pitchers into middle innings.

You always want your best out there but if he tosses a dud then that is why you carry a durability arm or 2.

Then you can invest into 4 guys for the 8-9 that puts you into a winning situation.

You are saying get 4-5 out of your starter and toss out a middle inning guy or 2 or 3. Basically piggy back a lesser starter. Saving a arm but lessening your chances to win.

 

[chibears55]

I think that you are approaching it from a $. I’m looking at it as your best pitchers are your starters and pulling them early places worse pitchers into middle innings.

You always want your best out there but if he tosses a dud then that is why you carry a durability arm or 2.

Then you can invest into 4 guys for the 8-9 that puts you into a winning situation.

You are saying get 4-5 out of your starter and toss out a middle inning guy or 2 or 3. Basically piggy back a lesser starter. Saving a arm but lessening your chances to win.

No...
I was just throwing something out there that I think could happen in a couple years with the way some teams seem to be leaning more with relying on relievers from the 5th inning on..

 

[CSF77]

No...
I was just throwing something out there that I think could happen in a couple years with the way some teams seem to be leaning more with relying on relievers from the 5th inning on..

So is about how team BA goes up after the 3rd time?

I used to remember this Padre pitcher who would start 4 seem/curve early inning. His arm would tire but it added movement. So he switch to 2 seem change up latter inning. It worked and gave the hitters a whole new challenge.

It is really more about talent and learning to pitch vs toss out another pitcher.

End of the day a closer is a failed starter. Goes down hill from there.

 

[chibears55]

So is about how team BA goes up after the 3rd time?

I used to remember this Padre pitcher who would start 4 seem/curve early inning. His arm would tire but it added movement. So he switch to 2 seem change up latter inning. It worked and gave the hitters a whole new challenge.

It is really more about talent and learning to pitch vs toss out another pitcher.

End of the day a closer is a failed starter. Goes down hill from there.

Lol