Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/nationals-bryce-harper-dont-expect-return-re-sign-rumors.html

 

[Castor76]

Cubs aren't trading Hamels. they literally just picked up his option meaning they want him back.

I think that has as much to do with insurance for Darvish. Kluber replaces that.

 

[beckdawg]

I think that has as much to do with insurance for Darvish. Kluber replaces that.

You don't give a guy $20 mil as "insurance." He's going to be part of the team. Besides the cubs already had lots of depth. They want hamels back because they want him. They wanted him before he was traded to Texas and he was great as a cub. Plus its a 1 year deal which are really hard to go wrong with.

 

[beckdawg]

bleacher nation brought up an interesting idea of going after Puig. Short version is LA may trade him and the expectation is they wont get a ton. It's an interesting idea because he destroyed RHP last year hitting .297/.357/.564(150 wRC+). He only hit .209/.268/.360(70 wRC+) vs LHP so you'd likely want to platoon him a bit but that's also kind of interesting because it plays well with Almora. Presumably if you made this trade you play Schwarber(crushes RHP .241/.356/.503 123 wRC+) in LF, Heyward in CF(.265/.334/.401 100 wRC+) in CF and Puig in RF vs RHP and vs LHP you'd go Almora in CF(.295/.340/.402 101 wRC+) Heyward in RF(.290/.340/.376 97 wRC+) and probably Schwarber in LF though depending on how the infield shapes out you could potentially go Happ or Zobrist.

 

[Castor76]

You don't give a guy $20 mil as "insurance." He's going to be part of the team. Besides the cubs already had lots of depth. They want hamels back because they want him. They wanted him before he was traded to Texas and he was great as a cub. Plus its a 1 year deal which are really hard to go wrong with.

You do anything that makes your team better.

 

[CSF77]

You do anything that makes your team better.

No this is wrong on many levels.

If they were going to trade Kluber it would be to shed payroll. Kluber owed 13M. Hamels 20M is stupid. Then the arb1 on Schwarber...just gets worse.

Kluber put up 5.6 fWAR. Schwarber 3.2 fWAR. 13M vs 3M most likely.

After that they would want raw talent. You can argue 1 year of Kluber and 3 years of Schwarber honestly balance out so you could see 2 prospects. DJ Wilson and Michael Rucker level. They might hold out for Brailyn Marquez but that would be just him and Schwarber for 1 year of Kluber.

I would only do it if I have a deal lined up with Brantley first and a trade partner on Q. Q/Schwarber off sets Kluber contract wise.

 

[CSF77]

bleacher nation brought up an interesting idea of going after Puig. Short version is LA may trade him and the expectation is they wont get a ton. It's an interesting idea because he destroyed RHP last year hitting .297/.357/.564(150 wRC+). He only hit .209/.268/.360(70 wRC+) vs LHP so you'd likely want to platoon him a bit but that's also kind of interesting because it plays well with Almora. Presumably if you made this trade you play Schwarber(crushes RHP .241/.356/.503 123 wRC+) in LF, Heyward in CF(.265/.334/.401 100 wRC+) in CF and Puig in RF vs RHP and vs LHP you'd go Almora in CF(.295/.340/.402 101 wRC+) Heyward in RF(.290/.340/.376 97 wRC+) and probably Schwarber in LF though depending on how the infield shapes out you could potentially go Happ or Zobrist.

I doubt the Dodgers will help improve the Cubs this offseason.

 

[CSF77]

You don't give a guy $20 mil as "insurance." He's going to be part of the team. Besides the cubs already had lots of depth. They want hamels back because they want him. They wanted him before he was traded to Texas and he was great as a cub. Plus its a 1 year deal which are really hard to go wrong with.

I'm pretty sure that they originally went in thinking Chatwood was a gamble so they signed Smyly if he would suck. Smyly never recovered in time to factor which forced trading for Hamels. This would have happened regardless of what happened to Darvish.

Montgomery replaced Darvish.
Hamels replaced Chatwood.

Going into 2019 The rotation should end up Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Darvish, Q. Depth after that is Montgomery then Chatwood. AAA Underwood and Mills. Alozay IMO ends up a pen arm due to not having a stable 3rd pitch. But has a power curve with a plus fastball. Which opens up Edwards as a trade commodity this year.

Over all they really don't have to do much in the meetings. They sign Miller as a set up and sit on what they have until the deal line it is not going to screw them at all.

 

[chibears55]

I think that has as much to do with insurance for Darvish. Kluber replaces that.

No..
If anything, it would have more to do with that their not going to do anything to fix the offense much other then hope guys figure it out and want to have a rotation that has the ability to shut teams down more often then not..

Also why theyll probably go after relievers that can strengthen the bullpen

 

[chibears55]

bleacher nation brought up an interesting idea of going after Puig. Short version is LA may trade him and the expectation is they wont get a ton. It's an interesting idea because he destroyed RHP last year hitting .297/.357/.564(150 wRC+). He only hit .209/.268/.360(70 wRC+) vs LHP so you'd likely want to platoon him a bit but that's also kind of interesting because it plays well with Almora. Presumably if you made this trade you play Schwarber(crushes RHP .241/.356/.503 123 wRC+) in LF, Heyward in CF(.265/.334/.401 100 wRC+) in CF and Puig in RF vs RHP and vs LHP you'd go Almora in CF(.295/.340/.402 101 wRC+) Heyward in RF(.290/.340/.376 97 wRC+) and probably Schwarber in LF though depending on how the infield shapes out you could potentially go Happ or Zobrist.

My guess if they trade him, itll be to an AL team

They definitely wont want him biting them in the ass by keeping him in NL

 

[CSF77]

No..
If anything, it would have more to do with that their not going to do anything to fix the offense much other then hope guys figure it out and want to have a rotation that has the ability to shut teams down more often then not..

Also why theyll probably go after relievers that can strengthen the bullpen

I tend to agree with this.

Apr: #10 101 wRC+
May: #2 119
June: #10 100
July: #11 107
Aug: #23 94
Sept: #24 78

They got worse in general. But They have proven that they can play at a higher peak. So the talent is there and adding Murphy really did not change the script. What they need is their core producing more consistently.

 

[Castor76]

While I'll agree they want/hope/expect the offense to fix itself with hopefully a healthy season, I'm not buying they spent 20M on a, as some put it, #3/4 starter no matter how much they like him. That's money that could have gone to a BP arm or two. Hamels was awesome, but if they were expecting Darvish to be what they paid for from the start of the season, bringing back Hamels at that price tag doesn't make sense.

 

[CSF77]

While I'll agree they want/hope/expect the offense to fix itself with hopefully a healthy season, I'm not buying they spent 20M on a, as some put it, #3/4 starter no matter how much they like him. That's money that could have gone to a BP arm or two. Hamels was awesome, but if they were expecting Darvish to be what they paid for from the start of the season, bringing back Hamels at that price tag doesn't make sense.

In reality he cost 13M Smyly cost 7M. Basically they paid 13M to upgrade from Smyly to Hamels in 2019.

As far as worth?
1st half:

Lester 1 WAR
Hendricks: .8
Q: .6
Montgomery: .5
Darvish: .2
Chatwood: 0

2nd half:

Hendricks: 2.5 WAR
Hamels: 1.5
Montgomery: .9
Q: .9
Lester: .6

For the season:

Hendricks: 3.2 WAR
Lester: 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 1.4 WAR
Montgomery: 1.4 WAR

And Hamels?

2.0

2nd best staff pitcher in value.

pitched 32 games and put up 190 IP Add to it he was hovering 95 MPH. So age has not caught up to him.

I think 3 WAR is not out of reach for him.

 

[CSF77]

Getting to Darvish:

If he is a question mark going in. I would not be opposed to pushing him into late inning work for the season and starting Montgomery. Or targeting Kluber as ESPN was musing. He put up a 11.03 SO/9 in a starter role. I would hate to see him in short bursts.

 

[Castor76]

In reality he cost 13M Smyly cost 7M. Basically they paid 13M to upgrade from Smyly to Hamels in 2019.

As far as worth?
1st half:

Lester 1 WAR
Hendricks: .8
Q: .6
Montgomery: .5
Darvish: .2
Chatwood: 0

2nd half:

Hendricks: 2.5 WAR
Hamels: 1.5
Montgomery: .9
Q: .9
Lester: .6

For the season:

Hendricks: 3.2 WAR
Lester: 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 1.4 WAR
Montgomery: 1.4 WAR

And Hamels?

2.0

2nd best staff pitcher in value.

pitched 32 games and put up 190 IP Add to it he was hovering 95 MPH. So age has not caught up to him.

I think 3 WAR is not out of reach for him.

WAR is a theoretical number that looks nice but doesn't actually mean anything. It's an algorithm that can't be applied in the real world. I'm not doubting the effectiveness of Hamels either last season or what is hoped for this season. The Smyly trade was made to help make room, but could have happened regardless.

 

[CSF77]

WAR is a theoretical number that looks nice but doesn't actually mean anything. It's an algorithm that can't be applied in the real world. I'm not doubting the effectiveness of Hamels either last season or what is hoped for this season. The Smyly trade was made to help make room, but could have happened regardless.

It weighs heavy on FIP and IP. Lester’s WAR was deflated because his BB/9 was over 4. He benifited form a strong 1st half of solid wRC+. 2nd half the run support fell and Hendricks and Hamels were the best 2 starters.

That is why I do not weight W/L as having any value.

I concider Hamels worth 13M on a 1 year deal. He has earned that. He is not worth 20M but they are not paying that amount after making the Rangers take on Smyly.

I just don’t see them adjusting the staff. It makes more sense to keep it simple and invest into Andrew Miller and let Strop close games. I’m honestly 100% fine with Strop as the closer this year. Morrow then can be used as needed vs forced into back to back.

 

[Castor76]

It weighs heavy on FIP and IP. Lester’s WAR was deflated because his BB/9 was over 4. He benifited form a strong 1st half of solid wRC+. 2nd half the run support fell and Hendricks and Hamels were the best 2 starters.

That is why I do not weight W/L as having any value.

I concider Hamels worth 13M on a 1 year deal. He has earned that. He is not worth 20M but they are not paying that amount after making the Rangers take on Smyly.

I just don’t see them adjusting the staff. It makes more sense to keep it simple and invest into Andrew Miller and let Strop close games. I’m honestly 100% fine with Strop as the closer this year. Morrow then can be used as needed vs forced into back to back.

But they are paying 20 and not 13. It's a 13M difference and an upgrade, but let's not pretend the Cubs are only on the hook for 13M. They spent an extra 13M to keep Hamels. I'm not saying it's the wrong move. I'm saying they did it as insurance on Darvish.

 

[CSF77]

But they are paying 20 and not 13. It's a 13M difference and an upgrade, but let's not pretend the Cubs are only on the hook for 13M. They spent an extra 13M to keep Hamels. I'm not saying it's the wrong move. I'm saying they did it as insurance on Darvish.

You have to look at it from a payroll perspective. The hit is 13M not 20M.

On insurance to Darvish? No again. Hamels was a upgrade to Chatwood. Darvish is his own case. Even now. I’m pretty sure that he will rebound fine but if he looks sketchy going in they will make a move in response.

The Smyly => Hamels decision was simple. Cole wanted in and performance wise deserved it. Sure they could have let Tex eat the 6M and signed him to 13M but this helped both sides while keeping positive relations open

 

[CSF77]

What about Jacoby Ellsbury in a bad contract swap? Not sure the Yankees would want Chatwood/Kintzler/Duensing but if you dealt those 3 for Ellsbury and say $10 mil in cash it would be mostly luxury tax neutral. Ellsbury wouldn't be amazing by any means but as a lefty hitting bench bat who can play CF and provide some vet experience he wouldn't be terrible. For example, he hit .264/.348/.402 in 2017. He would pair well with Almora who's obvious issue has always been RHP. Ellsbury has hit .287/.346/.434 vs RHP on his career. He also stole 22 bases in 112 games in 2017 so he'd give you a little speed off the bench.

I'm not entirely sure where he is health wise as he missed all of 2018 but he'd be another guy I wouldn't mind having in a way to get rid of Chatwood.

Another idea is going back to the Rangers with Choo. He is owed 21M (x2). He profiles as a RF (fringe is fine but they have Almora) and every day lead off.

I would go as far as moving Happ plus Chatwood (13M) Kintzler (5M) Duesing (3.5M). Now The obvious problem would be the 40 man. Cubs could take on 4 guys. I doubt Texcould do the same so each move would cause a non tender. Or Tex could send 3 minimal Impacts off their 40 to balance the roster hit.

 

[chibears55]

Bold prediction here..[emoji3]

https://twitter.com/DavidHaugh/status/1071443169982722048?s=19