Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[TC in Mississippi]

Bold prediction here..[emoji3]

https://twitter.com/DavidHaugh/status/1071443169982722048?s=19

I think it's Cubs or Dodgers. There have been reports that he doesn't like Philadelphia the city. Still if everyone is offereing around $350 and they come up with $425 he'll go to Philly. That's $75 mil reasons to learn to like it.

 

[CSF77]

Think they are trying to fill the void created by Rizzo pulling out. I think it is Phillies, Sox myself. Cubs might be at 10% with the void.

 

[chibears55]

Think they are trying to fill the void created by Rizzo pulling out. I think it is Phillies, Sox myself. Cubs might be at 10% with the void.

What void with Rizzo???

I'd be shocked if he went to the Sox now, I think Boras using them to up the price

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I think the cubs should piece together a deal for Kluber around Schwarber. Then they should go after Brantley to fill Schwarber spot. Brantley is exactly the type of player the cubs need to add in a high average contact hitter. Then see if we could swap Chatwood and Kintzler/Duensing for Dee Gordon. Trade Quintana for either bullpen arms or to restock our farm some. Then they need to go after a late inning arm like Miller or Familia. Get a cheap vet back up catcher and check on billy Hamilton as a utility guy and see what kind of price tag he has.

 

[CSF77]

What void with Rizzo???

I'd be shocked if he went to the Sox now, I think Boras using them to up the price

GM from Washington. He pulled out from the Nats.

I see it as CWS will go 400M

Cubs don’t have a glaring need/major budget concerns.

Phillies are the clear favorites

LAD really don’t need him either. More a why not thing.

If the Cubs were 30M under then I would have said yep. Trust me on that.

This is what it takes: they would have to flip Zobrist for prospects right now to clear tax. No team is going to take on Theo’s mistakes.

So in view of this no and 10% just because of Bryant’s connection.

Philly: 50%
CWS: 20%

Then rest of league scrapping

The only dark horse would be SDP.

 

[jooo83]

Well ****... Morrow had an elbow clean up and may not be available to start the year.... He's a good pitcher and all but you gotta wonder about the signing as being the solution they hoped for because yet again for like the 5th straight year it seems like they are going into the offseason looking for a closer.

I said from the moment I heard about that signing that it simply did not make sense for a contender to court on a 33 year old injury prone player (now 34) to close games. They better not make the same mistake for next season. The cubs absolutely need a legitimate closer this offseason.

 

[chibears55]

GM from Washington. He pulled out from the Nats.

I see it as CWS will go 400M

Cubs don’t have a glaring need/major budget concerns.

Phillies are the clear favorites

LAD really don’t need him either. More a why not thing.

If the Cubs were 30M under then I would have said yep. Trust me on that.

This is what it takes: they would have to flip Zobrist for prospects right now to clear tax. No team is going to take on Theo’s mistakes.

So in view of this no and 10% just because of Bryant’s connection.

Philly: 50%
CWS: 20%

Then rest of league scrapping

The only dark horse would be SDP.

Ahhh. That Rizzo

I've been saying all along if Theo wants Harper and he wants to be a Cub, then itll happen..

Theo will trade whoever he needs to, and figure out how to fit the money in the contract to make it happen

 

[Castor76]

GM from Washington. He pulled out from the Nats.

I see it as CWS will go 400M

Cubs don’t have a glaring need/major budget concerns.

Phillies are the clear favorites

LAD really don’t need him either. More a why not thing.

If the Cubs were 30M under then I would have said yep. Trust me on that.

This is what it takes: they would have to flip Zobrist for prospects right now to clear tax. No team is going to take on Theo’s mistakes.

So in view of this no and 10% just because of Bryant’s connection.

Philly: 50%
CWS: 20%

Then rest of league scrapping

The only dark horse would be SDP.

It would all depend on what the ask back is. I truly doubt, unless ownership just says screw it, that Harper will be a Cub in 2019. Still Heyward had an OPS better than 12 teams' RF put up in 2018 and getting one to take him and say half his contract isn't impossible. It is improbable. It's why I think Cleveland could be an interesting trade partner. If Cleveland is shopping Kluber, I think/hope the Cubs could work out a deal that would free up about 10-15M.

 

[CSF77]

Ahhh. That Rizzo

I've been saying all along if Theo wants Harper and he wants to be a Cub, then itll happen..

Theo will trade whoever he needs to, and figure out how to fit the money in the contract to make it happen

They are at 225M right now. Basically 20M under tax. Ya they could but only if they can clear.

I went in thinking let Russell walk (5M cleared) didn’t do that.
Not retain Cole. Nope again didn’t do that. Added 13M
Let Strop walk...nope added 6.5M

I think at the end of the day a 30M commitment to a lux tax makes you worse.

That is why they won’t. Not unless a miracle happens.

Even if they clear Zo’s 14M that is also a core player that you are moving that gave positive wRC+.

So it feels pipe dream at this point.

A real scenerio:

Choo and 2 no names for Happ, Kintzler, Duesing and Chatwood. Dollars match. Lead off solved. Zo goes to 2B full time.

2nd real. Same thing with NYY as Beck said just another piece that fills a lead off role.

3rd: do nothing and play Zo in RF. Bring in a temp AAAA guy to fill UI.


Now what I think he will do?

He has been adding UI’s left and right just to lose them over and over again. Theo just needs a month and he is not going to invest heavy here. He has 4 openings on the 40 so we might see a rule V SS and they drop him and pay the rental fee to the team they got him off of. Very likely cost effective solution.

On the OF. Honestly I’m fine as is. Enuf said.

Vet presence? They have Rizzo. I don’t get why This is a thing.

The glaring NEED is a closer. Morrow is a train wreck waiting to happen.

Sometimes the answers are in plain sight.

 

[Castor76]

I said earlier that it is funny that the Cubs offensive needs could be met just by the team getting healthy and meeting expectations. Bp is of course always a need for just about everybody.

 

[CSF77]

I said earlier that it is funny that the Cubs offensive needs could be met just by the team getting healthy and meeting expectations. Bp is of course always a need for just about everybody.

Well Harper most likely costs 30M. 30M is equal to Ben Zobrist (3.6 WAR), Rizzo (2.9 WAR), Javy Baez (6.5M est/ 5.3 WAR), Schwarber (2.75M est/3.2 WAR) and Contreras 2.6 WAR... ya that is 30M. Basically they got 18 WAR for 30M.

That is why Theo most likely doesn't go there. He gets far more bang for the buck not going big.

 

[chibears55]

They are at 225M right now. Basically 20M under tax. Ya they could but only if they can clear.

I went in thinking let Russell walk (5M cleared) didn’t do that.
Not retain Cole. Nope again didn’t do that. Added 13M
Let Strop walk...nope added 6.5M

I think at the end of the day a 30M commitment to a lux tax makes you worse.

That is why they won’t. Not unless a miracle happens.

Even if they clear Zo’s 14M that is also a core player that you are moving that gave positive wRC+.

So it feels pipe dream at this point.

A real scenerio:

Choo and 2 no names for Happ, Kintzler, Duesing and Chatwood. Dollars match. Lead off solved. Zo goes to 2B full time.

2nd real. Same thing with NYY as Beck said just another piece that fills a lead off role.

3rd: do nothing and play Zo in RF. Bring in a temp AAAA guy to fill UI.


Now what I think he will do?

He has been adding UI’s left and right just to lose them over and over again. Theo just needs a month and he is not going to invest heavy here. He has 4 openings on the 40 so we might see a rule V SS and they drop him and pay the rental fee to the team they got him off of. Very likely cost effective solution.

On the OF. Honestly I’m fine as is. Enuf said.

Vet presence? They have Rizzo. I don’t get why This is a thing.

The glaring NEED is a closer. Morrow is a train wreck waiting to happen.

Sometimes the answers are in plain sight.

How do you get 225 ?
I see them at 208

If they can trim all or some of Chatwood and or Heyward salary, theyll have plenty of room for Harper and others especially if they can back load Harper's deal

 

[Castor76]

Well Harper most likely costs 30M. 30M is equal to Ben Zobrist (3.6 WAR), Rizzo (2.9 WAR), Javy Baez (6.5M est/ 5.3 WAR), Schwarber (2.75M est/3.2 WAR) and Contreras 2.6 WAR... ya that is 30M. Basically they got 18 WAR for 30M.

That is why Theo most likely doesn't go there. He gets far more bang for the buck not going big.

That's a game that can be played with all kinds of "Haven't reached FA yet" players. And Rizzo signed a sweet heart deal a la Steph Curry. I truly don't think Harper will sign with the Cubs unless Harper only wants t play for them. I could also see a half fire sale happening to make it happen. I don't think it will. But theoretically, then Cubs could trade Zobrist and Hamels, both who have value,and open up the money to sign Harper. Not saying that's a good idea, but that could happen.

 

[Castor76]

How do you get 225 ?
I see them at 208

If they can trim all or some of Chatwood and or Heyward salary, theyll have plenty of room for Harper and others especially if they can back load Harper's deal

Cot's has the Cubs 2019 40 man CBT estimated at just under 225M. They are very good at predicting what guys get in arbitration. So, I'd guess that's about right.

Also, there's about 15M in estimate player benfits that's added in that I think is making up the difference

 

[chibears55]

Cot's has the Cubs 2019 40 man CBT estimated at just under 225M. They are very good at predicting what guys get in arbitration. So, I'd guess that's about right.

Also, there's about 15M in estimate player benfits that's added in that I think is making up the difference

Ok..
I see that

 

[CSF77]

Ok..
I see that

I go by Cots. They have a competitive tax calculator

 

[beckdawg]

Ok..
I see that

Cots also includes the players benefits which you need in the luxury tax.

 

[beckdawg]

Time for more dumb trade ideas from me....

If my other suggestions(Ellsbury/Martin) aren't viable for whatever reason.... what about Chatwood for 2 relievers that aren't particularly great? My first thought was Mark Melancon who has 2 years $28 mil left and is more or less equal money. SF has Stratton and Suarez who both were pretty terrible last year as 2 of their back 3. Admittedly Chatwood isn't a for sure improvement but he'd give you some competition and depth.

But there's likely other relievers in the $5-6 mil range who are over paid a la Kintzler with the cubs. At the very lead you'd think they could spin that sort of trade to fill out their bullpen with depth rather than quality.

 

[chibears55]

Cots also includes the players benefits which you need in the luxury tax.

I do look at cots, I forgot to swipe left to see the other part of it that showed those numbers

 

[chibears55]

Winter Meetings start today

Should see what Theo plans are this week with trades and signings for 2019

I think he gonna surprise everyone with some big moves