Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[TC in Mississippi]

You can laugh at this if you want but this account is right more than wrong. Clearly someone with some access.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

But fav:

Mets-Manny

Phil’s-Harper

I'll be a little shocked if Harper goes to Philly. I think they'd have to over pay by 10%-15% to get it done. I've been saying the finalists will be LA and the Cubs with Harper ultimately becoming a Dodger but there's something brewing with the Cubs interests so we'll see.

 

[RacerX]

You can laugh at this if you want but this account is right more than wrong. Clearly someone with some access.

I would prefer to allocate the funds elsewhere, I fear another Seabrook contract though I know the dynamics are different with Harper.

 

[fatbeard]

I would prefer to allocate the funds elsewhere, I fear another Seabrook contract though I know the dynamics are different with Harper.

The Seabrook contract was toxic because he was overpaid, already declining in production, and on the wrong side of the aging curve on a cash-strapped team in a hard cap sport. Not seeing any comparisons between him and Harper, other than the generalization that any big contract can hurt you if things go bad.

 

[anotheridiot]

I would prefer to allocate the funds elsewhere, I fear another Seabrook contract though I know the dynamics are different with Harper.

I am pretty sure Harper will have value 2 years after he signs the deal. Seabrook got paid for checking the red wing into the hawk bench at Wrigley field in 2009.

 

[RacerX]

The Seabrook contract was toxic because he was overpaid, already declining in production, and on the wrong side of the aging curve on a cash-strapped team in a hard cap sport. Not seeing any comparisons between him and Harper, other than the generalization that any big contract can hurt you if things go bad.

Yup, I agree on the different dynamics at play, I guess I’m just suffering PTSD from long-term contracts.

 

[CSF77]

Theo’s history: no
Rickett’s history: no

Doesn’t matter were Harper prefers. Boras would have to do some contract deferred to back end or Rickett’s push the deal

 

[CSF77]

Basically this is a ownership level negotiation. Theo couldn’t pull the strings on this

 

[Castor76]

Basically this is a ownership level negotiation. Theo couldn’t pull the strings on this

Not that I think it would happen, but Boras is known for going directly to owners and getting them to want the guy. As I said, I don't think it will sway the Ricketts, but Boras seems to win more often than not.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Theo’s history: no
Rickett’s history: no

Doesn’t matter were Harper prefers. Boras would have to do some contract deferred to back end or Rickett’s push the deal

He's not going to the team offering the most money, because that's the Phillies and very few people think he's going there. He doesn't like the city. It's the Cubs, Dodgers or the Yankees out of the blue. There won't be any "mystery" teams this time because the only other team that could reasonably afford him is Boston and they aren't in. Atlanta could afford him too but with the farm system they have tehy basically get anyone they want without putting up that kind of money.

 

[CSF77]

He's not going to the team offering the most money, because that's the Phillies and very few people think he's going there. He doesn't like the city. It's the Cubs, Dodgers or the Yankees out of the blue. There won't be any "mystery" teams this time because the only other team that could reasonably afford him is Boston and they aren't in. Atlanta could afford him too but with the farm system they have tehy basically get anyone they want without putting up that kind of money.

When they say it is not about the money it is. He is not going to go submarine his market value just to play with Bryant.

This is what I believe needs to happen:

1. He needs to defer 15M off of year 1 to year 2-4 So say he wants 30M per. That means he would have to take 15M year 1 then 35M years 2-4 then it rolls back to 30M. Basically Zo coming off alone balances that hit.

It really depends on the years though. If he takes 10 I believe he wants 34M per. To get him at 30 which is what the Nats offered then it would take 2-4 more years.

It would be a sticking his middle finger to the Nat’s and their fans to take equal or less. Basically he said not enough. And he takes less then it was but ****-you DC.

He won’t do it and Boras wouldn’t either with their history.

So it is about the money. It always is.

 

[chibears55]

He's not going to the team offering the most money, because that's the Phillies and very few people think he's going there. He doesn't like the city. It's the Cubs, Dodgers or the Yankees out of the blue. There won't be any "mystery" teams this time because the only other team that could reasonably afford him is Boston and they aren't in. Atlanta could afford him too but with the farm system they have tehy basically get anyone they want without putting up that kind of money.

Yankees supposedly just said their out on Harper

I really believe it gonna be the Cubs
I think Theo got some moves up his sleeves to make it happen

 

[CSF77]

Yankees supposedly just said their out on Harper

I really believe it gonna be the Cubs
I think Theo got some moves up his sleeves to make it happen

Would be unrelated. Word was that they didn’t want to take on another mega after Stanton. Imo Judge is a better talent so you keep budgeted to retain him.

 

[chibears55]

Would be unrelated. Word was that they didn’t want to take on another mega after Stanton. Imo Judge is a better talent so you keep budgeted to retain him.

More teams pull out, better for the cubs if they want him

 

[CSF77]

More teams pull out, better for the cubs if they want him

They would have to defer a large chunk spread out after the contract ends. Like 100M over 10 years. Then make year 1 15M then year 2 30M. Later contract it eases off.

But it would be more so to leverage Bryant’s deal

 

[CSF77]

Still putting it at:

Phillies
CWS
CHC
SDP

LAD would have to move OF to make it happen. Kemp is dead weight. Puig last year. More cost effective. I just don’t see them being a huge player on him. They move Kemp and I believe that they are in. As of right now I believe their focus is Catcher. They really don’t need much.

 

[Castor76]

Money always talks, especially with a Boras agent, but the next few weeks will be very interesting. At this point, I'll think of it like winning the lottery. If it happens I'llbe really happy, but I ain't planning my life on it.

 

[CSF77]

Sounds like Boras is complaining about Mark Lerner opening up about the Negotiation between them. Sounds border line MLBPA violations.

Basically numbers were publicly released which are in violation.

 

[beckdawg]

Maybe I'm connecting dots that aren't actually there but the more I read into the Harper situation the more I think his first choice is the cubs. Read something last night suggesting his wife was going to be a big part of the decision with regard to how they would fit into the club house with kids and what not. That's interesting on two levels. One it's no secret she and Bryant's wife are extremely close. It's also no secret Harper's dog wrigley was named by her. And it's also no secret the cubs in particular have made a huge effort to include family into the recruiting process going so far as to suggest doctors local for pregnant families and schools for those with kids.

Then you read stuff like the market for harper is only 3 teams. And you read the news today that apparently the ownership has signed off on a big ticket purchase. How this reads to me is if they can make the money work(ie get creative as theo said) it's going to happen. It's also kind of telling that there hasn't been a whole bunch of talk about cubs plans and what they have said would seem to suggest they like their internal players. You could read that as they aren't going to do anything but I think you could also read it as they don't plan to make many moves but adding in one for Harper would also fit that narrative.

 

[chibears55]

Anyone seen Tom

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1072324007158902785?s=19