Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

After seeing a report that SanFrancisco looking for an Outfielder and their once interest in Heyward.

Makes me wonder if that a deal that can be pulled off to free some cash for Harper

I would stop dreaming. People need to come to grips with the fact that Heyward is here. They also need to come to grips with the fact that he really wasn't that bad last year and considering specifically the cubs have been targeting leadership, he's the type of guy you want in a club house. That's not to say he's without flaws. But if you view him as CF which I think he would be should they sign Harper, there were 6 CF in the league with a 100 wRC+ of higher and at least 600 innings in CF. They were...

Mike Trout 5.6 UZR/150
Tommy Pham -1.0
Aaron Hicks -0.1
Lorenzo Cain 11.9
Charlie Blackmon -12.6
Starling Marte 4.4

We can debate just how good Heyward is in CF but in 647 innings in CF he has an UZR/150 of 13.5. You're talking about 6 guys in the league that possess a similar skillset. And that's just thinking Heyward's season is what it was in it's entirety. If you think he can be the player he was like May-June before getting concussed as well as other injuries setting him back there's probably more there. He finished 2018 with the third highest hard hit rate of his career behind his rookie year(38.8%) and his 3rd year(34.5%) with 29.7%. He finished with the lowest K rate of his career which lead to his 4th highest batting average. His walks are down from his great years but I think that's a choice rather than a decline in performance. He's seems more focused on putting the ball in play than early career Heyward.

Paradoxically, what is still holding him back some how is power. In 2013 he had an identical hard hit rate. In 2013 his ISO was .173. Last year it was .125. Part of that has to do with a difference in fly ball rate. You may recall me bringing this up early in the season right before he broke out. It was REALLY good last year. Like he was 1:1 FB/GB. In the first half he was 1.13 GB/FB vs 2.08 in the second half. The first half he hit .285/.344/.431(109 wRC+) and the second half he hit .247/.321/.337(82 wRC+).

Maybe Heyward is always going to be a tease in that if you squint hard enough there is a very good player to see. But IDK like... so much bad shit happened to various cubs players in the second half of 2018 i'm a bit inclined to throw it out. I am however confident in saying if Heyward puts the ball in the air at a 1:1 rate he's going to be a very good hitter and we literally saw him do it in the first half so clearly it's possible even at this point.

 

[Castor76]

did you just use wins on the "short"????

I'm not sure what that phrase means so I probably did. You either win a game or lose it.

 

[Castor76]

When you are walking 1 guy per inning and led the league in that category with under 100 IP you don’t hang your hat on that.

That is why the Martin flip makes sense. Theo is looking for that type. Jays are looking to shed. It makes sense and something could be worked out between the two sides. Jays are going nowhere and a trade like that just rids contract

Are you purposely missing my point or just doing it accidentally? The Cubs spent 13M to upgrade at SP when they are announcing they need to shore up the BP. I'm not saying the upgrade isn't significant because potential 6 game difference in Wins is a big deal. What I am saying is it indicates that either when they made the choice they weren't sure on Darvish or payroll isn't the factor they are saying it is.

 

[brett05]

I'm not sure what that phrase means so I probably did. You either win a game or lose it.

You do know that DeGrom and Giolitio had the same number of wins last year (10). Would you say those two are equal? Your original statement says they are. Using wins over a career is a tremendous stat. Using it for a season, well....Just look at DeGrom and Giolito.

 

[beckdawg]

You do know that DeGrom and Giolitio had the same number of wins last year (10). Would you say those two are equal? Your original statement says they are. Using wins over a career is a tremendous stat. Using it for a season, well....Just look at DeGrom and Giolito.

I would argue it's never a good stat if you're talking about pitching. Doesn't matter if it's over a season or a career the same silly rules justify what's a win. I get not everyone is a stats head like me but honestly if you're going to use "normal" stats just use ERA. You have to caveat it a bit in terms of number of innings pitched which often screws with reliever ERA but it's far better in indicating what actually occurred.

 

[CSF77]

I would stop dreaming. People need to come to grips with the fact that Heyward is here. They also need to come to grips with the fact that he really wasn't that bad last year and considering specifically the cubs have been targeting leadership, he's the type of guy you want in a club house. That's not to say he's without flaws. But if you view him as CF which I think he would be should they sign Harper, there were 6 CF in the league with a 100 wRC+ of higher and at least 600 innings in CF. They were...

Mike Trout 5.6 UZR/150
Tommy Pham -1.0
Aaron Hicks -0.1
Lorenzo Cain 11.9
Charlie Blackmon -12.6
Starling Marte 4.4

We can debate just how good Heyward is in CF but in 647 innings in CF he has an UZR/150 of 13.5. You're talking about 6 guys in the league that possess a similar skillset. And that's just thinking Heyward's season is what it was in it's entirety. If you think he can be the player he was like May-June before getting concussed as well as other injuries setting him back there's probably more there. He finished 2018 with the third highest hard hit rate of his career behind his rookie year(38.8%) and his 3rd year(34.5%) with 29.7%. He finished with the lowest K rate of his career which lead to his 4th highest batting average. His walks are down from his great years but I think that's a choice rather than a decline in performance. He's seems more focused on putting the ball in play than early career Heyward.

Paradoxically, what is still holding him back some how is power. In 2013 he had an identical hard hit rate. In 2013 his ISO was .173. Last year it was .125. Part of that has to do with a difference in fly ball rate. You may recall me bringing this up early in the season right before he broke out. It was REALLY good last year. Like he was 1:1 FB/GB. In the first half he was 1.13 GB/FB vs 2.08 in the second half. The first half he hit .285/.344/.431(109 wRC+) and the second half he hit .247/.321/.337(82 wRC+).

Maybe Heyward is always going to be a tease in that if you squint hard enough there is a very good player to see. But IDK like... so much bad shit happened to various cubs players in the second half of 2018 i'm a bit inclined to throw it out. I am however confident in saying if Heyward puts the ball in the air at a 1:1 rate he's going to be a very good hitter and we literally saw him do it in the first half so clearly it's possible even at this point.

What I think that they are doing right now iscommiting to Heyward to CF vs RH and Almora in CF vs LHSP. Zobrist becomes the main RF. Adding Decalso on a 2 plus a opt opens up Happ and Almora for trade which could end up as a facilitator to moving Chatwood. Russell returns those AB’s move to the OF.

 

[anotheridiot]

What I think that they are doing right now iscommiting to Heyward to CF vs RH and Almora in CF vs LHSP. Zobrist becomes the main RF. Adding Decalso on a 2 plus a opt opens up Happ and Almora for trade which could end up as a facilitator to moving Chatwood. Russell returns those AB’s move to the OF.

Which is the whole point, bring in a free agent, and lose our controlled young talent to get different players, even though you are trading a guy who you just penciled into the starting lineup against LHSP just to get someone to take Chatwood.

Yes, when they signed Heyward, Fowler was leaving and he was brought in for center, but then they went back to get Fowler, possibly from what they saw of Heyward in center, we will never know. The reason to move him has very little to do with how he plays center field, its having money to be able to sign Bryant and Baez. Pretty sure the starting point for Bryant will be whatever MAchado and Harper average out to, plus three years of inflation.

I think we will see a change in Maddon this year. He has heard Theo, he wont be doing little league switches every game, just some games. Its one thing to have players prepared to play multiple positions, its a different thing making them feel they dont have a spot.

 

[CSF77]

Are you purposely missing my point or just doing it accidentally? The Cubs spent 13M to upgrade at SP when they are announcing they need to shore up the BP. I'm not saying the upgrade isn't significant because potential 6 game difference in Wins is a big deal. What I am saying is it indicates that either when they made the choice they weren't sure on Darvish or payroll isn't the factor they are saying it is.

I’ve said this before. Signing Hamels removed Chatwood last year. Montgomery replaced Darvish well before. When Hamels was signed and Chatwood demoted it signified that he was below Montgomery in the depth chart.

As far as resigning Hamels it had little to do with a BP arm. What they had to decide was were they ok with Darvish off injury and Smyly off injury as their 4-5? The answer was no and they invested into stability.

So that choice was unrelated

As far as Morrow was concerned that surgery happened Nov 1 and the time table opened after the signing. Which could prelude another trade to address a late inning arm.

Ie freeing up Happ or Almora to package with Chatwood

 

[brett05]

I would argue it's never a good stat if you're talking about pitching. Doesn't matter if it's over a season or a career the same silly rules justify what's a win. I get not everyone is a stats head like me but honestly if you're going to use "normal" stats just use ERA. You have to caveat it a bit in terms of number of innings pitched which often screws with reliever ERA but it's far better in indicating what actually occurred.

For starting pitchers over a career there are little to no instances where the totals are deceptive on what type of pitcher they were. If you have examples that say otherwise, I'd be open to changing that position.

 

[beckdawg]

For starting pitchers over a career there are little to no instances where the totals are deceptive on what type of pitcher they were. If you have examples that say otherwise, I'd be open to changing that position.

I mean I'm not sure what your end goal is using them. Jamie Moyer has 269 career wins and a 4.25 career ERA. Is he better than Bob Gibson who has 251 career wins and a 2.91 career ERA? Of course not. So, then what's the point in using wins as a measure of quality? I mean sure the starters who got no run support in a given season will eventually even out to more accurately reflect what happened but what if you're a great pitcher on a team that is historically bad? You might suffer through multiple years as a .500 pitcher when on a better team you might finish with 15-18 wins.

I guess the point I'm getting at here is why bother using wins when ERA has less ambiguity and is just as accessible? If a guy has an ERA below 3.25 he's probably a great pitcher.

 

[beckdawg]

What I think that they are doing right now iscommiting to Heyward to CF vs RH and Almora in CF vs LHSP. Zobrist becomes the main RF. Adding Decalso on a 2 plus a opt opens up Happ and Almora for trade which could end up as a facilitator to moving Chatwood. Russell returns those AB’s move to the OF.

Not how I really see it. I think the fact they got him for 2 years is just a way of sort of replacing zobrist cheaply after this year. By then you hopefully have nico and/or ademan ready for MLB bench work at the very least. That being said, if they don't get Harper you very may well be right with Zobrist in RF and Happ at 2B. I just don't think they are dealing Happ/Almora anymore. Well I never thought it with Almora. He's perfect in a 4th OF role that plays more than a typical 4th OF. Happ I initially thought might be traded because he didn't make a ton of sense to me in the OF. But, if the plan going forward is Javy at SS then giving him more of a 2B role with occasional chances in LF/CF as PH/days off suit isn't a terrible role.

I don't think moving chatwood requires a sweetner to be honest. There's not much pitching out there and while Chatwood certainly isn't a super appealing option, if you're talking about a bad contract swap he's probably worth the gamble. He's not really making that much and if you assume whatever bad asset you are trading away likely costs ~$10 mil to get rid of anyways he's basically on a 2 year $16 mil deal. That's peanuts for a durable starter and should he find his command again he's easily a flippable player in july.

 

[brett05]

I mean I'm not sure what your end goal is using them. Jamie Moyer has 269 career wins and a 4.25 career ERA. Is he better than Bob Gibson who has 251 career wins and a 2.91 career ERA? Of course not. So, then what's the point in using wins as a measure of quality? I mean sure the starters who got no run support in a given season will eventually even out to more accurately reflect what happened but what if you're a great pitcher on a team that is historically bad? You might suffer through multiple years as a .500 pitcher when on a better team you might finish with 15-18 wins.

I guess the point I'm getting at here is why bother using wins when ERA has less ambiguity and is just as accessible? If a guy has an ERA below 3.25 he's probably a great pitcher.

Fair enough. I prefer era as well, but have no issues with using Wins long term. And even though he had a 4.25 era, He'd get a vote from me for the Hall. Longevity has a lot of value.

 

[TL1961]

Fair enough. I prefer era as well, but have no issues with using Wins long term. And even though he had a 4.25 era, He'd get a vote from me for the Hall. Longevity has a lot of value.

That’s insane. Long term mediocrity does not equal HOF worthiness.

Wait, the Baines election just proved that some believe it does....

 

[beckdawg]

That’s insane. Long term mediocrity does not equal HOF worthiness.

Wait, the Baines election just proved that some believe it does....

I'm not entirely sure I agree. I mean I get the point you're making and to an extent agree but longevity is often as valuable as elite skill. For example, take Mike Mussina. He's 17th all time on fangraphs pitching war at 82.6. Having a near elite guy you know is just going to be there for the year is a huge deal. I mean look at Lester's value. Is he the best pitcher in the league? Probably not but he's always a guy you know who's going to give you 180-200 innings. As we saw with Darvish last year, an injury can really screw up a season so guys that are consistently durable are IMO underrated. It's one of the reasons I've always like Hendricks despite lessor stuff. He's a reasonably durable starter who will give you good innings.

 

[CSF77]

Not how I really see it. I think the fact they got him for 2 years is just a way of sort of replacing zobrist cheaply after this year. By then you hopefully have nico and/or ademan ready for MLB bench work at the very least. That being said, if they don't get Harper you very may well be right with Zobrist in RF and Happ at 2B. I just don't think they are dealing Happ/Almora anymore. Well I never thought it with Almora. He's perfect in a 4th OF role that plays more than a typical 4th OF. Happ I initially thought might be traded because he didn't make a ton of sense to me in the OF. But, if the plan going forward is Javy at SS then giving him more of a 2B role with occasional chances in LF/CF as PH/days off suit isn't a terrible role.

I don't think moving chatwood requires a sweetner to be honest. There's not much pitching out there and while Chatwood certainly isn't a super appealing option, if you're talking about a bad contract swap he's probably worth the gamble. He's not really making that much and if you assume whatever bad asset you are trading away likely costs ~$10 mil to get rid of anyways he's basically on a 2 year $16 mil deal. That's peanuts for a durable starter and should he find his command again he's easily a flippable player in july.

When full I see it as

Schwarber LF
Heyward CF
Zobrist RF
Bryant 3B
Russell SS
Baez 2B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C

Bench: New guy takes Zo’s job right now but adds SS.

After that they have Happ and Almora. Happ is more flexible. Almora is a more fundamental plus player.

Cartiani fits into C and 1B

So going into ST Bote would have the 12th spot. When Russell returns the pieces shift to above.

Now as is the need to do nothing is they are happy as is. But seeing Morrow out it really depends if they trust Chatwood in a late inning role or would rather find a trade partner.

I thought that the Tor trade made sense. Maybe expand it to Chatwood and Caratini for Martin and a stable BP arm. Happ would increase the quality of the return.

So I really don’t see them sitting on what they have pen wise. Even full there is a clear lacking.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Fair enough. I prefer era as well, but have no issues with using Wins long term. And even though he had a 4.25 era, He'd get a vote from me for the Hall. Longevity has a lot of value.

Dude played for 26 seasons and 7 of them were 3 WAR or above and even in those seasons his best ERA was 3.53. He was the very definition of a #3 or #4 starter for most of his career. I admire Moyer, he looked like he'd be out of baseball after 1990 and played for 20 more years. Impressive, but in no way even close to a HoF pitcher. I mean, not close and I kind of bet he would tell you that himself as he's a well known student of the game.

 

[Castor76]

You do know that DeGrom and Giolitio had the same number of wins last year (10). Would you say those two are equal? Your original statement says they are. Using wins over a career is a tremendous stat. Using it for a season, well....Just look at DeGrom and Giolito.

I didn't use the wins and losses by the player. I used the wins and losses of the team in the games the player pitched in. I know wins and losses isn't the greatest stat, with the exception of it's the only damn thing that matters when the season ends. You can lead the league in in lots of team categories and that's fine. Don't win enough games, you don't go to the playoffs. Play a 3 game series where you score 20 runs to the other team's 9 looks good unless you score 18 in one game and they score 3 in each of them.

I know my post is a snapshot of what the team did, but it's all we've got to look at. I still go back to my original point of if the Cubs were close to cash strapped as they claim, that spending 13M more in a spot that isn't a glaring need isn't the best use of that money.

 

[brett05]

Dude played for 26 seasons and 7 of them were 3 WAR or above and even in those seasons his best ERA was 3.53. He was the very definition of a #3 or #4 starter for most of his career. I admire Moyer, he looked like he'd be out of baseball after 1990 and played for 20 more years. Impressive, but in no way even close to a HoF pitcher. I mean, not close and I kind of bet he would tell you that himself as he's a well known student of the game.

As did Harold, however, yes longevity for me counts. He'd get my vote.

 

[beckdawg]

Something to consider....

Ben Zobrist - $12.5 mil($14 mil AAV)
Tyler Chatwood - $12.5 mil this year $13 mil next($12.666 mil AAV).

You move those two players and that's nearly $27 mil in luxury tax space. Considering they were signed you have to assume whatever budget the cubs have they fit into. Presumably Harper isn't going to get a crazy contract given the lukewarm interest atm. For the sake of argument, say $30 is the tippy top he can get. You move those two players and your basically there. Zobrist would be an incredibly easy trade to make. I mean given his 2018 performance and given you really can't lose on a 1 year deal moving him would be easy. The ramification to do so are kinda sucky but if you want Harper..... that's one of the easier ways to do it. Chatwood obviously is a much tougher sell. But say you find someone.

What if they offer Tulo the chance to start at short or 2B should they feel javy is better at SS. The cubs are a contender. And unlike most teams the cubs are in a some what interesting situation given Russell's situation. Shoul Tulo get hurt they have their 2018 starting SS. And should his personal issues be too much for them to keep they also have Happ at 2B. You do that then you add Harper and things get pretty interesting. Obviously its a bit of a gamble going from Zobrist to tulo but you'd also be picking up Harper in the exchange.

I don't know struck me as an interesting gambit.

 

[CSF77]

Something to consider....

Ben Zobrist - $12.5 mil($14 mil AAV)
Tyler Chatwood - $12.5 mil this year $13 mil next($12.666 mil AAV).

You move those two players and that's nearly $27 mil in luxury tax space. Considering they were signed you have to assume whatever budget the cubs have they fit into. Presumably Harper isn't going to get a crazy contract given the lukewarm interest atm. For the sake of argument, say $30 is the tippy top he can get. You move those two players and your basically there. Zobrist would be an incredibly easy trade to make. I mean given his 2018 performance and given you really can't lose on a 1 year deal moving him would be easy. The ramification to do so are kinda sucky but if you want Harper..... that's one of the easier ways to do it. Chatwood obviously is a much tougher sell. But say you find someone.

What if they offer Tulo the chance to start at short or 2B should they feel javy is better at SS. The cubs are a contender. And unlike most teams the cubs are in a some what interesting situation given Russell's situation. Shoul Tulo get hurt they have their 2018 starting SS. And should his personal issues be too much for them to keep they also have Happ at 2B. You do that then you add Harper and things get pretty interesting. Obviously its a bit of a gamble going from Zobrist to tulo but you'd also be picking up Harper in the exchange.

I don't know struck me as an interesting gambit.

Trulo has not played at all star capacity sense 2014.

wRC+ 2014 at Coors: 170
2015 101 that was his trade year.
2016 104
2017 79

Now playing on astro turf most likely caused his bone spur issue but he was pushing a 170 at a highly suspect ball park.

I believe that he is a downgrade to Russell. Pure and simple. He is not the same guy that ripped apart mile high. But looking at him as ridding Russell and getting a cheap fix is ok I guess.

But to expect a bounce back might be a reach. 100 wRC+ might be it for him.