Offseason rumors/discussion thread

beckdawg

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Trulo has not played at all star capacity sense 2014.

wRC+ 2014 at Coors: 170
2015 101 that was his trade year.
2016 104
2017 79

Now playing on astro turf most likely caused his bone spur issue but he was pushing a 170 at a highly suspect ball park.

I believe that he is a downgrade to Russell. Pure and simple. He is not the same guy that ripped apart mile high. But looking at him as ridding Russell and getting a cheap fix is ok I guess.

But to expect a bounce back might be a reach. 100 wRC+ might be it for him.

There is a coors effect obviously but he still has been a career .269/.338/.453(112 wRC+) outside of coors. Zobrist hit .305/.378/.440(123 wRC+) last year. So sure to an extent it's a downgrade albeit a small one. You're talking about a difference of 27 OPS. But that's kind of ignoring the point. The point is moving Zobrist potentially allows you to sign Harper. Harper in a down year was a 135 wRC+ in RF. Heyward was 99 wRC+ the last year and while he'd likely be still with the team him and Almora in CF would also upgrade that.
 

CSF77

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A quick answer to that situation:

Jays have Gurriel now at SS and Bichette a year out. They might be a place to dump Russell as the Jays have the ability to not offer after this year.

Basically Chattwood 12,667,667 and Russell 5Mil 17 Mil on the books to sell.
Jays Martin 16.4M So almost a wash here. Cubs could pay 1/2 Chatwood's 2020 to balance it.

Now as far as dumping both Zo and Chatwood and basically getting prospects in return? No I really don't see that as a realistic situation. Zo holds the most value at the dead line as a rental if the Cubs suck. Chatwood you would have to take a worse contract. End of story.

The only way the Cubs can take on Harper is if the Cubs do something totally stupid like pack Bryant with a bad deal...which would push any bad deal they have... or they go against every thing that they have said regarding budget.

If Harper really wants to be a Cub he should sign a 1 year deal and give the Cubs the time needed to shed contract. This is all about bad timing.

End of the day I believe that he ends up a Dodger as long as LA can move Puig.
 

CSF77

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There is a coors effect obviously but he still has been a career .269/.338/.453(112 wRC+) outside of coors. Zobrist hit .305/.378/.440(123 wRC+) last year. So sure to an extent it's a downgrade albeit a small one. You're talking about a difference of 27 OPS. But that's kind of ignoring the point. The point is moving Zobrist potentially allows you to sign Harper. Harper in a down year was a 135 wRC+ in RF. Heyward was 99 wRC+ the last year and while he'd likely be still with the team him and Almora in CF would also upgrade that.

No. You are looking at it from a vacuum. Life doesn't work that way.
 

beckdawg

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No. You are looking at it from a vacuum. Life doesn't work that way.

I have no idea what that's suppose to mean. Regardless, Tulo was a 3 win player in 2016 with the jays when he played 131 games. Zobrist was a 3.6 win player last year in a similar amount of PAs. Acting like Tulo is some how a bad player is just being ignorant of the fact he's been hurt. Frankly Tulo makes sense with or without trading Zobrist. As I said the entire point of this was trading Zobrist frees money to allow you to realistically add Harper.

Is it possible you're weaker with Tulo and company than with Zobrist at 2B? Yeah probably but the cubs have 2 deep behind him right now with Happ/Russell and Tulo would make them quite deep. And who knows, maybe Happ goes out and dominates spring training and it becomes and academic question. However, Zobrist was here last year and it didn't stop the offense from sputtering last in the year.

If you don't want Harper for whatever reason fine but just say that. This is by far the most realistic way the cubs can get him however.
 

CSF77

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I have no idea what that's suppose to mean. Regardless, Tulo was a 3 win player in 2016 with the jays when he played 131 games. Zobrist was a 3.6 win player last year in a similar amount of PAs. Acting like Tulo is some how a bad player is just being ignorant of the fact he's been hurt. Frankly Tulo makes sense with or without trading Zobrist. As I said the entire point of this was trading Zobrist frees money to allow you to realistically add Harper.

Is it possible you're weaker with Tulo and company than with Zobrist at 2B? Yeah probably but the cubs have 2 deep behind him right now with Happ/Russell and Tulo would make them quite deep. And who knows, maybe Happ goes out and dominates spring training and it becomes and academic question. However, Zobrist was here last year and it didn't stop the offense from sputtering last in the year.

If you don't want Harper for whatever reason fine but just say that. This is by far the most realistic way the cubs can get him however.

What it means is thinking that you can just remove Chatwood and Zobrist’s contract is a vacuum viewpoint.

No team will take on Chatwood and negate the Cubs commitment. That never happens.

Zobrist I could see but right now? No. Deadline yes if the storm is perfect. Sure he is coming of a strong year but let’s be honest here. Team are not going to line up to absorb 14M
 

CSF77

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Now with that lastest info the Cubs could still walk on Russell. To be honest this is more shit on the pile and if the commish decides they could levy more time. Which most likely will cause a MBA backlash in grievances. Cubs offer is NOT guaranteed so honestly it might be a smart decision to walk out saying the complete extent was withheld from the team in bad faith and they have rescinded the offer. Then sign Troy. Saves around 5 mil
 

beckdawg

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What it means is thinking that you can just remove Chatwood and Zobrist’s contract is a vacuum viewpoint.

No team will take on Chatwood and negate the Cubs commitment. That never happens.

Zobrist I could see but right now? No. Deadline yes if the storm is perfect. Sure he is coming of a strong year but let’s be honest here. Team are not going to line up to absorb 14M

Why not re: zobrist? The angels literally just gave Ian Kinsler who hit .240/.301/.380(87 wRC+) at age 36 a 2 year $8 mil contract. There are going to be teams that will value him not the least of which because it's literally a 1 year gamble. If he's not great then you're out $12.5 mil they would be paying him in 2019.

As for Chatwood, like i said he isn't going to be the easiest player to move but they are going to be trying to move him regardless of what happens with Harper. They probably aren't just going to flat out dump his money but there's ways of moving him and i mean Edwin Jackson of all people had a MLB deal last year with the A's. Someone will take a chance on a guy with elite stuff.
 

CSF77

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Why not re: zobrist? The angels literally just gave Ian Kinsler who hit .240/.301/.380(87 wRC+) at age 36 a 2 year $8 mil contract. There are going to be teams that will value him not the least of which because it's literally a 1 year gamble. If he's not great then you're out $12.5 mil they would be paying him in 2019.

As for Chatwood, like i said he isn't going to be the easiest player to move but they are going to be trying to move him regardless of what happens with Harper. They probably aren't just going to flat out dump his money but there's ways of moving him and i mean Edwin Jackson of all people had a MLB deal last year with the A's. Someone will take a chance on a guy with elite stuff.

What is he 37-38? 14M is a hit to tax.

This is what I’m thinking: sit on the situation. Zo most likely gives around 100 wRC+ I would think that is fair. If they are doing good then it works out. If not and he is having a good year then sell him off.

That is all I think about it honestly. To sign Harper it is not about finding teams to take on payroll.

That is BULLSHIT

IF THEY WANTED Harper THEN THEY WOULD STEP UP VS SPILL CRAP ABOUT BUDGETARY MATTERS
 

CSF77

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That is all I can say about it. They a scared to death about having to pay 400M. That is it nothing else.
 

beckdawg

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What is he 37-38? 14M is a hit to tax.

This is what I’m thinking: sit on the situation. Zo most likely gives around 100 wRC+ I would think that is fair. If they are doing good then it works out. If not and he is having a good year then sell him off.

That is all I think about it honestly. To sign Harper it is not about finding teams to take on payroll.

That is BULLSHIT

IF THEY WANTED Harper THEN THEY WOULD STEP UP VS SPILL CRAP ABOUT BUDGETARY MATTERS

The other 29 teams aren't as tight with the luxury cap as the cubs are. Most don't have tax concerns so that's really a pointless rationale. As for not shedding payroll, that's how budgets work. All indications are Harper wouldn't fit in their current budget. You may not like that but that's the reality of the situation. Moving close to $30 mil out of their budget allows them to add something that size.

Also where are you pulling a 100 wRC+ for Zobrist out of your ass from? The past 3 years he's hit .270/.363/.422(111 wRC+) and is coming off an even better year than that. Brantley put up similar numbers to Zobrist last year and got a 2 year $32 mil deal. At $12.5 mil for 2019 he's a value because you couldn't sign any other FA coming off the year he had for 1 year $12.5 mil. Now that's not to say the cubs would get an amazing prospect in return for him but they'd get something decent.
 

Castor76

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To just put out there a series of "Lots of moving parts, but if if worked, oh boy" ideas. The Cubs have 3 10 figure guys who are tradeable assets now, Zobrist, Hamels, and Quintana. Possible trade partners for teams looking to compete right now in 2019 who either aren't at their traditional spending levels or could be looking to up it a bit are, in no particular order, the Angels, Braves, Mets, Rays, and Yankees. IF the Cubs started by getting Trulo to sign, things could get interesting. Then, they find landing spots for the three mentioned above, provided the chatter about the Indians looking to move Kluber is also true. So, in this fantasy, the Cubs land 3-6 B level prospects. They then package Schwarber, choice of Happ or Almora, and whatever other lesser pieces the Indians want for Kluber. Then check in with the Blue Jays to see if they really want to do a bad for bad with Martin and Chatwood, maybe add 2nd year money or a small piece to make up for the two years versus one on the deal.

IF, and big if that is, that all happened, it frees up about 27M leaving a starting 5 of Kluber, Lester, Hendrix, Darvish, and Montgomery. Pen is as is. You have Contreas and Martin at C, Rizzo 1B, Baez 2B, Russell at SS (if they keep him), Bryant at 3B, Trulo and Descalso back up IF, Heyward and whichever is left between Almora and Happ for OF. That would take the payroll down to about 200M. If they let Russel go, there's another 5M. Plug the holes as you would.
 

CSF77

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The other 29 teams aren't as tight with the luxury cap as the cubs are. Most don't have tax concerns so that's really a pointless rationale. As for not shedding payroll, that's how budgets work. All indications are Harper wouldn't fit in their current budget. You may not like that but that's the reality of the situation. Moving close to $30 mil out of their budget allows them to add something that size.

Also where are you pulling a 100 wRC+ for Zobrist out of your ass from? The past 3 years he's hit .270/.363/.422(111 wRC+) and is coming off an even better year than that. Brantley put up similar numbers to Zobrist last year and got a 2 year $32 mil deal. At $12.5 mil for 2019 he's a value because you couldn't sign any other FA coming off the year he had for 1 year $12.5 mil. Now that's not to say the cubs would get an amazing prospect in return for him but they'd get something decent.

More to do with giving into a 400M commitment. Let’s face it the team is owned by the father and he lets his kids play with his investment. Selling how 1 player is worth 400M is going to be a hard line sale as is. Not to mention that the dad doesn’t even care for the sport and the team is profiting regardless.

If Tom was the controlling party than I would have another opinion but as of this moment I just don’t see any greenlite deals of that magnitude.

2nd I tend to aim low on elder pall players. 100 wRC+ is league avg. for me to give league avg for a player at that point is honestly glowing. If he has another plus production left great. But I don’t go into the season expecting it. I believe Joe managed his playing time better than 2017 so I see him at most a 75% regular as is. The 25% that has to go on others deflates his over all value right now.

The best way to put things right now is acceptance of the situation that the Cubs are in. Theo made poor decisions last off season that handcuffed this off. It is what it is.

Getting Yu healthy rectifies a huge chunk of those errors. Duesing and Kintzler bouncing back fixes 2 more errors. Chatwood tossing less scuds or offloading all together is another major error.

Morrow and Darvish IMO were injury related. You really can’t judge those. Rest were poor judgment calls.

The only investment that pulled off was Cishek well and Hamels later season.

Most of what we have been talking about has been related to this. Removing Theo’s **** ups or misjudged payments. So I really doubt Theo wants to make a 400M **** upgrade now after this run of shit results.
 

Castor76

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Player options are always dicey thing. On one hand, the player is betting they'll perform well enough to go back onto the market and get more than they have remaining on the current deal. OTOH, it's insurance if they don't. Teams can like them simply because it can let them get out of the rest of a contract. of course it all comes down to how the pay is set out. Give a guy either a back loaded or evened out deal and you can feel you're paying too much at the end of a long deal per year, but that is how you keep them from opting out.
 

chibears55

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Cardinals about to get Andrew Miller..

Cubs well, their hoping everyone gets better
 

CSF77

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Yup. Cards having a great offseason and Cubs doing jack all.

Cards were a worse team going in. Cubs at 100% still are a better team. Even the Crew wouldn’t have been that good unless they had a unexpected MVP performance to tie a injury plagued Cubs.

Right now Cubs have the best team on paper. Crew and Cards are close. I would give all 3 90 plus. Baez repeats and Bryant and Rizzo go back to norms. Best 5 rotation in the central. Strop showing that he can close games. Morrow might end up his set up with his delay.

I still think they are the best team on paper. Even with the Russell drama.
 

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