OT: Red Sox

[JZsportsfan]

Dang Pablo sticking it to SF. MLBN just said the Giants offered between 90-$95 mil for him. If it was that close, idk why he did not stay. He probably could have made that $10 M up pretty quick in appearances, and marketing

 

[brett05]

There seems to be some "not so fast" talk on both of these contracts although I think early reports are most likely right and I would be surprised if they don't both sign before the holiday. As far as how it affects Lester Boston media seems to think that if Lester will sign the deal as offered they'll still ink him but are less likely to go to the high end right now. Ken Rosenthal's Tweet yesterday about 6 teams being in on Lester seems like his agent is concerned about dollars if Boston isn't going to be as aggressive on him as they seemed to be. i really don't think that there are 6 teams with the wherewithal and money to get in that derby. If Boston is out I'd call the Cubs the front runner and St. Louis the strong darkhorse, Of course I don't believe Boston in out just yet. There are also a lot of pitchers on the trading block right now including David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, and Cole Hamels and Boston has the major league and minor league talent to be in that mix too.

There are more than 6 teams that could easily fit the Lester contract, two in Chicago alone. Zimmermann is not on the block, it was fabricated. Samardzija isn't either. We'll see though...things are definitely exciting.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There are more than 6 teams that could easily fit the Lester contract, two in Chicago alone. Zimmermann is not on the block, it was fabricated. Samardzija isn't either. We'll see though...things are definitely exciting.

I think Zimmermann to the Cubs was fabricated but it sure looks like he's on the block to me.

http://www.federalbaseball.com/2014...-chatter-about-nats-trading-jordan-zimmermann

I have quite a few friends that are fans of the Nationals, and a few pretty well connected ones, and they all say the same thing and that's that Mike Rizzo has made it known he's taking calls on Fister and Zimmermann.

As far as Samardzija it's only a matter of time until that happens. They can't sign him and his value will never higher than it will be after the big three free agents sign.

As far as teams that would legitimately take that Lester contract. I disagree. The 6 teams that are said to be interested are Atlanta, Miami, Anaheim, St. Louis, Boston and Chicago. We've gone over the last three and in any scenario he ends up in one of them. Of the first three Atlanta is not nearly ready, Miami would be nuts to make a signing like that right this minute and I just don't see Anaheim adding those kind of numbers with so much questionable paper already on the books. I get it that they want to make another run or two at a World Series but the price would seemingly be too high. Are there other teams not being mentioned? Sure, I'm surprised Texas hasn't been mentioned and I could see the Yankees getting involved but the White Sox? That makes very little sense with their budget and the fact that TOR pitching is not their problem.

 

[brett05]

I think Zimmermann to the Cubs was fabricated but it sure looks like he's on the block to me.

http://www.federalbaseball.com/2014...-chatter-about-nats-trading-jordan-zimmermann

I have quite a few friends that are fans of the Nationals, and a few pretty well connected ones, and they all say the same thing and that's that Mike Rizzo has made it known he's taking calls on Fister and Zimmermann.

As far as Samardzija it's only a matter of time until that happens. They can't sign him and his value will never higher than it will be after the big three free agents sign.

As far as teams that would legitimately take that Lester contract. I disagree. The 6 teams that are said to be interested are Atlanta, Miami, Anaheim, St. Louis, Boston and Chicago. We've gone over the last three and in any scenario he ends up in one of them. Of the first three Atlanta is not nearly ready, Miami would be nuts to make a signing like that right this minute and I just don't see Anaheim adding those kind of numbers with so much questionable paper already on the books. I get it that they want to make another run or two at a World Series but the price would seemingly be too high. Are there other teams not being mentioned? Sure, I'm surprised Texas hasn't been mentioned and I could see the Yankees getting involved but the White Sox? That makes very little sense with their budget and the fact that TOR pitching is not their problem.

Right now the Sox are competing with the lowest of the low in payroll. The White Sox probably have the most free cash available of any team.

Seattle and Texas can both take and use a Lester.

Athletics can easily afford him as well.

The Tigers could do Lester and pass on the more expensive Max.

Toronto has the cash and the need and he'd look great in Baltimore.

Giants have cash with the loss of Pablo.

My argument is the pool is bigger than 6 that could use him and it would be a good fit. I think I've done that.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Right now the Sox are competing with the lowest of the low in payroll. The White Sox probably have the most free cash available of any team.

Seattle and Texas can both take and use a Lester.

Athletics can easily afford him as well.

The Tigers could do Lester and pass on the more expensive Max.

Toronto has the cash and the need and he'd look great in Baltimore.

Giants have cash with the loss of Pablo.

My argument is the pool is bigger than 6 that could use him and it would be a good fit. I think I've done that.

Agreed, but you're taking teams that no one has even come close to reporting are interested. I understand low profiles and of the teams you mention the White Sox excel at low profile signings. They don't telegraph their intentions very often. The other ones you bring up do and I'd be very surprised to see them involved.

Since we started this conversation the Ramirez and Sandoval signings have been more or less confirmed so I think it's safe to say the Lester conversation has changed. First in a piece from 2010 (courtesy of Cubs Den) Lester had this to say about Ramirez:

A fluffy question was posed to Lester: had he and Ramirez, back when they were in the minors, perhaps gone out for a pizza one night and talked about someday playing in the All-Star Game?

"I'd have a better chance of being struck by lightning than me and him getting a pizza together," Lester said. "You can take that for what it's worth. But there was no chance on God's green earth that I was getting a pizza with him."

Money cures a lot of ills but you have to put that as a negative in the Lester to Boston column. The other thing is that Boston needs Lester a lot less now with trade options all over the place. One rumor has them trading Cespedes to the Reds for Johnny Cueto and if they really wanted to they could almost certainly get Cole Hamels now. You gotta love hot stove baseball.

 

[brett05]

Agreed, but you're taking teams that no one has even come close to reporting are interested. I understand low profiles and of the teams you mention the White Sox excel at low profile signings. They don't telegraph their intentions very often. The other ones you bring up do and I'd be very surprised to see them involved.

Since we started this conversation the Ramirez and Sandoval signings have been more or less confirmed so I think it's safe to say the Lester conversation has changed. First in a piece from 2010 (courtesy of Cubs Den) Lester had this to say about Ramirez:



Money cures a lot of ills but you have to put that as a negative in the Lester to Boston column. The other thing is that Boston needs Lester a lot less now with trade options all over the place. One rumor has them trading Cespedes to the Reds for Johnny Cueto and if they really wanted to they could almost certainly get Cole Hamels now. You gotta love hot stove baseball.

Players will always find teammates they don't get along with/ In the minors you bunk up to save money. Lester would never have to do a single thing with Ramirez if it was an issue. Is it a negative? OK. How much? about -0.00001%

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Players will always find teammates they don't get along with/ In the minors you bunk up to save money. Lester would never have to do a single thing with Ramirez if it was an issue. Is it a negative? OK. How much? about -0.00001%

You know what? You may be right. the thing is in this case the consensus was that Lester would sign with Boston for quite a bit less money (some rumors said $10 million less on a 6 year deal) than he would sign with the Cubs. To me the quote above combined with the fact that Boston lowballed him not once but twice (4 years/$70 million 5 months ago and 6/years less than $120 million 10 days ago) means that he might still sign with them but I don't think he'd take that much less over a Cubs offer.

 

[brett05]

You know what? You may be right. the thing is in this case the consensus was that Lester would sign with Boston for quite a bit less money (some rumors said $10 million less on a 6 year deal) than he would sign with the Cubs. To me the quote above combined with the fact that Boston lowballed him not once but twice (4 years/$70 million 5 months ago and 6/years less than $120 million 10 days ago) means that he might still sign with them but I don't think he'd take that much less over a Cubs offer.

If it's simply about the most money, then it is anyone's game. But if it is something more, than the Cubs need to come up a heck of a lot more than $10 million since the odds are very much against them being a winner while Lester is a major contributor.

 

[chibears55]

Dang Pablo sticking it to SF. MLBN just said the Giants offered between 90-$95 mil for him. If it was that close, idk why he did not stay. He probably could have made that $10 M up pretty quick in appearances, and marketing

Might be looking down the road and seeing that DH is in his near future. ...

 

[chibears55]

Lester might be thinking NL is a bit easier to pitch in if money and years are about equal. .

I heard on radio this morning that Bosox set the payroll budget at 187, they are now at 180..

So, either they have a big trade to make to get room to add Lester

Or

Their going to use the younger 3rd basemen and SS who just lost their jobs ss trade bait for pitching

 

[brett05]

Lester might be thinking NL is a bit easier to pitch in if money and years are about equal. .

I heard on radio this morning that Bosox set the payroll budget at 187, they are now at 180..

So, either they have a big trade to make to get room to add Lester

Or

Their going to use the younger 3rd basemen and SS who just lost their jobs ss trade bait for pitching

Or their budget is bigger

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If it's simply about the most money, then it is anyone's game. But if it is something more, than the Cubs need to come up a heck of a lot more than $10 million since the odds are very much against them being a winner while Lester is a major contributor.

OK, that's an interesting statement. The odds are against them being a winner in 2015? If that's what you're saying then I completely agree. If you're saying the odds are against them being a winner in 2016 and beyond than I couldn't disagree more. I'm not sure there's a team in baseball with greater upside (greater does not mean equal) with the possible exception to Houston although there are some troubling signs there. If I'm looking at 2-3 years from now I would say that the Cubs have a far greater chance at being a year in year out winner than Boston has.

 

[brett05]

OK, that's an interesting statement. The odds are against them being a winner in 2015? If that's what you're saying then I completely agree. If you're saying the odds are against them being a winner in 2016 and beyond than I couldn't disagree more. I'm not sure there's a team in baseball with greater upside (greater does not mean equal) with the possible exception to Houston although there are some troubling signs there. If I'm looking at 2-3 years from now I would say that the Cubs have a far greater chance at being a year in year out winner than Boston has.

You can say that and it might happen, but we are talking odds here. And odds are they Cubs won't be winners while Lester is a TOR. I don't know what to tell you about that to make you see that.

Yes The Cubs are improving their odds. But improving the odds and being an odds on favorite on being a winner is a pretty big chasm.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You can say that and it might happen, but we are talking odds here. And odds are they Cubs won't be winners while Lester is a TOR. I don't know what to tell you about that to make you see that.

Yes The Cubs are improving their odds. But improving the odds and being an odds on favorite on being a winner is a pretty big chasm.

As of today, in Las Vegas the odds of the Cubs winning the 2015 World Series are identical to that of Boston at 25:1. I don't necessarily agree with that but you did bring up odds.

 

[chibears55]

As of today, in Las Vegas the odds of the Cubs winning the 2015 World Series are identical to that of Boston at 25:1. I don't necessarily agree with that but you did bring up odds.

Im more worried about the giants or dodgers getting Lester now then the redsox. ..

Only real way i see the cubs getting him is if they give him the 7th yr with the money...

 

[brett05]

As of today, in Las Vegas the odds of the Cubs winning the 2015 World Series are identical to that of Boston at 25:1. I don't necessarily agree with that but you did bring up odds.

And you do know how odds work in Vegas right?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Im more worried about the giants or dodgers getting Lester now then the redsox. ..

Only real way i see the cubs getting him is if they give him the 7th yr with the money...

No way the Dodgers get in with Andrew Friedman at the helm. He's looking to add pieces but cut payroll while still trying to contend for a World Series. Wouldn't shock me to see them trade for a rental like Samardzija or Fister thought. They were barely in on Martin and I'd be shocked if they got in on Lester.

The Giants are intriguing. Signing Lester doesn't quite fit their model and they just won a World Series so there's no desperation to win. Doesn't mean they won't get in, I just don't see them as the highest bidder but I could be way off there. They have a top five pitcher in Bumgarner already who just won a World Series all by himself. if they got him help they'd be the favorite to win another one. I do think the Cubs want Lester badly and have a number they'll rise to. I think Boston still wants him and he wants Boston but I think Boston's number just dropped. Someone could get in with a silly offer and more power to them if that happens but in the end my prediction is he signs with the Cubs for 6 years say $145 mil but I suppose $150 million won't surprise me. If he signs elsewhere I think it will be a crazy contract of say 7 years $180 million.

 

[Parade_Rain]

And you do know how odds work in Vegas right?

Yes. They had the Bears at 8-8 while meathead reporters believed the hype about contending for a Super Bowl.

 

[brett05]

Yes. They had the Bears at 8-8 while meathead reporters believed the hype about contending for a Super Bowl.

Well, one moment, that's not the same thing that we are talking about here.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

And you do know how odds work in Vegas right?

Of course. You brought up odds and odds are fickle and based on who's betting on whom. If you're looking at reading tea leaves and who has brightest futures in baseball I say almost without question those teams are Houston and Chicago and I stand by that.