Pitching Options for The 2014-2015 Winter

[dreadpirateroberts]

These are just two pitchers that the Cubs should sign next winter and there are many more to come as the upcoming season progresses. Both would benefit the Cubs tremendously in the future.

2014: Homer Bailey | Starting Pitcher | Cincinnati Reds
3 years/$8,000,000 = $24,000,000

2014: David Robertson | Closing Pitcher | New York Yankees
2 years/$3,500,000 = $7,000,000

 

[daddies3angels]

These are just two pitchers that the Cubs should sign next winter and there are many more to come as the upcoming season progresses. Both would benefit the Cubs tremendously in the future.

2014: Homer Bailey | Starting Pitcher | Cincinnati Reds
3 years/$8,000,000 = $24,000,000

2014: David Robertson | Closing Pitcher | New York Yankees
2 years/$3,500,000 = $7,000,000

You think thats all that going to take??????? Bailey going to get 20+ mil. Robertson 8+ mil

 

[patg006]

You think thats all that going to take??????? Bailey going to get 20+ mil. Robertson 8+ mil

I love how he smoothly looked to next offseason. Like this one is a lost cause or something

 

[SilenceS]

They think Homer Bailey is going to get somewhere up to 150 million dollars.

 

[beckdawg]

You think thats all that going to take??????? Bailey going to get 20+ mil. Robertson 8+ mil

Perhaps he's looking at arbitration numbers? I honestly don't know. However, I honestly could care less about Robertson. They have more than enough interesting bullpen arms and why would the yankees let him go if he's worth while? Bailey on the other hand is a bit more interesting and if negotiations between the reds break down I could see him being the type of pitcher the cubs went after via trade. He's good but not david price good which also means he's not going to cost david price prospects. Realistically you're probably talking Soler or Almora + a Vogelbach range prospect and probably a lessor third/fourth piece in the 15-20 range.

 

[CSF77]

I love how he smoothly looked to next offseason. Like this one is a lost cause or something

Well it is.

All I'm hoping is Baez gets promoted around the ASG. Up until then rather watch Iowa games.

 

[CSF77]

If I'm trading Almora it is for Price.

Baily 49-45 4.25 ERA BA against: .260 WHIP 1.32 IDK he is good but: Not an Ace type. I would put him a rung under Tanaka.

But he would get more than his value worth due to the lacking of next years field.

He is not even the ace on his staff.

 

[patg006]

Well it is.

All I'm hoping is Baez gets promoted around the ASG. Up until then rather watch Iowa games.

I'm sorry. I thought every season was sacred. I thought the goal every year was to win the world series.

My mistake.

 

[DewsSox79]

If I'm trading Almora it is for Price.

Baily 49-45 4.25 ERA BA against: .260 WHIP 1.32 IDK he is good but: Not an Ace type. I would put him a rung under Tanaka.

But he would get more than his value worth due to the lacking of next years field.

He is not even the ace on his staff.

just curious on who else you package for price.

fuck..i called that shit. tanaka signs and its now on to price.


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[SilenceS]

just curious on who else you package for price.

fuck..i called that shit. tanaka signs and its now on to price.


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Eh, I wouldn't go after Price. He has lost some velocity. He will come with a huge price tag and a huge prospect price tag. You would be looking at 2 of the big 4 and more.

 

[Boobaby1]

just curious on who else you package for price.

fuck..i called that shit. tanaka signs and its now on to price.


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How come every team in baseball has a bona fide ACE that came through their respective organizations, and the Cubs have to trade for one. WTF?

It isn't as if the Cubs couldn't already have an ACE in the system. They have had numerous top picks in the draft and it was their choice to take position players, and they will now get two top 4 picks in the next two drafts barring any miracles.

Why is there such a rush to sign David Price? All that does is take a step forward at the parent level and 2 steps back in the minor league prospect pool because it will cost Bryant or Baez.

Develop our own pitching and screw the rest of the league. They had every chance to get the Tanaka and didn't whether it meant way overpaying or not. They chose not to. Now it is time to sit back and draft the right friggin' pitchers in the next couple drafts.

If they can't do that, then the FO needs to be shit canned.

 

[beckdawg]

How come every team in baseball has a bona fide ACE that came through their respective organizations, and the Cubs have to trade for one. WTF?

Every team doesn't have an ace. KC had to trade for shields. Who's Minny's ace?...etc As for the draft, pitchers are much more risky then position players. Given that they needed both it was prudent for them to draft position players. Instead they've focused on finding guys with their later picks. Good pitchers come out of those picks. Seattle got Walker with the 46 pick IIRC.

 

[JosMin]

Bailey's case is interesting because he's slowly improved since he was drafted 7th overall in '04. I watched him a lot when he pitched here in Louisville for the Bats and he's certainly shown more of a willingness to challenge guys in the strikezone early in counts before moving to his out pitches. His fastball velocity has remained consistent as he worked deeper into games, and that's helped him curtail both keeping pitch counts in check and being able to expand the strikezone when necessary.

I think he's really solidified himself as a #2 in the league -- great power stuff, keeps his walks to a minimum, and is able to command his strikeout pitches. He's been healthy and with youth on his side, I expect him to get a deal between $18-22 million annually. I don't think the Reds are going to let him walk, they have a really solid rotation with him, Latos, Cingrani and Cueto.

 

[CSF77]

just curious on who else you package for price.

fuck..i called that shit. tanaka signs and its now on to price.


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Few factors and a big one is amount of control and if Price will extend in the deal.

Looking at Garza was what the Rangers gave up worth what they got? No. Garza did not factor. And he moved on after. It was a bad rental and they gave up allot for it.

But to the question:

I do not make the deal unless he will extend. Peroid. If he will then I'm looking at Shields deal as a measuring stick. KC had to give up a #1 prospect over it.

So I would have to bet it would take Alomora and Soler #18 and a #42 rank prospect. Then add in Johnson back end of the top 100 and Vogelbach.

Now if they want either Baez or Bryant it would cost less players over all. Bryant would slot at 1B. Baez I'm not sure if they want him over Bryant with Longera at 3B and Lee ML ready that can play SS/2B. Who knows.

Regardless I would push the Almora/Soler/Johnson/Vogelbach pitch. It is a big haul for a team that lives by the reload.
Cubs move Bryant to RF/Alcantara to CF/Baez to 2B/Price as Ace they do not lose much and a year is taken off the wait to boot.



S: He is still a top 10 SP in the league regardless if he dropped 2 MPH or not. Don't get wrapped up with that shit. Add to it he was injured. He has a pretty good chance of bouncing right back.

shoot look at Cliff Lee. He is still a top 3 starter and there are many pitchers under him who have better stuff. Means shit in the end.

 

[CSF77]

I'm sorry. I thought every season was sacred. I thought the goal every year was to win the world series.

My mistake.

Doesn't the mantra ever end?

I guess I care less. I'd rather hang at the beach this summer then watch a piss poor team and get worked up over it.

 

[Boobaby1]

Every team doesn't have an ace. KC had to trade for shields. Who's Minny's ace?...etc As for the draft, pitchers are much more risky then position players. Given that they needed both it was prudent for them to draft position players. Instead they've focused on finding guys with their later picks. Good pitchers come out of those picks. Seattle got Walker with the 46 pick IIRC.

Geez! My fault. Practically every team. Now counter that with teams that have two like the Cardinals, Oakland when they had Gonzalez who is now with the Nats and Strasburg. Look around at the rotations and see their teams versus the Cubs. Sure, their may be an exception, but the point is they developed.

The Latos for Alonzo trade was young player for young player. Had Latos been in the same class as Price, he would have cost a ton.

My point of this whole thing is develop your own pitchers. I don't want to go backwards any more. Some may be okay with it, and that's there choice.

To get a David Price, it will cost prospects because teams like Tampa aint gonna take Anthony Rizzo in a trade because they don't want to take on salary.

Rizzo and Castro are the ones who should be in trade discussions for pitching, not Baez and/or Bryant. They continue to struggle, so then they are not worth much.

 

[SilenceS]

Bailey's case is interesting because he's slowly improved since he was drafted 7th overall in '04. I watched him a lot when he pitched here in Louisville for the Bats and he's certainly shown more of a willingness to challenge guys in the strikezone early in counts before moving to his out pitches. His fastball velocity has remained consistent as he worked deeper into games, and that's helped him curtail both keeping pitch counts in check and being able to expand the strikezone when necessary.

I think he's really solidified himself as a #2 in the league -- great power stuff, keeps his walks to a minimum, and is able to command his strikeout pitches. He's been healthy and with youth on his side, I expect him to get a deal between $18-22 million annually. I don't think the Reds are going to let him walk, they have a really solid rotation with him, Latos, Cingrani and Cueto.

Ive read that the Reds could trade him out this year because of the contract he commands. I smell PEDS with Bailey. He has increased his velocity by 2 MPH in the past 2 years.

 

[JosMin]

Ive read that the Reds could trade him out this year because of the contract he commands. I smell PEDS with Bailey. He has increased his velocity by 2 MPH in the past 2 years.

He's always been a mid-90s guy. Based on this from FanGraphs, his average velocity has increase marginally. That very well could be an effect of tweaking mechanics and arm slot. I see the attraction of trading him, but their rotation is certainly a strong point. I'd try to keep that in tact.

 

[Jntg4]

Prefer Ricky Vaughan

 

[beckdawg]

Geez! My fault. Practically every team. Now counter that with teams that have two like the Cardinals, Oakland when they had Gonzalez who is now with the Nats and Strasburg. Look around at the rotations and see their teams versus the Cubs. Sure, their may be an exception, but the point is they developed.

The Latos for Alonzo trade was young player for young player. Had Latos been in the same class as Price, he would have cost a ton.

My point of this whole thing is develop your own pitchers. I don't want to go backwards any more. Some may be okay with it, and that's there choice.

To get a David Price, it will cost prospects because teams like Tampa aint gonna take Anthony Rizzo in a trade because they don't want to take on salary.

Rizzo and Castro are the ones who should be in trade discussions for pitching, not Baez and/or Bryant. They continue to struggle, so then they are not worth much.

Well this ought to be good...

Angels - Jared Weaver 1st round (12th pick) though Wilson was actually a better pitcher last year and he was a FA
Astros - yeah they got nothing atm unless you're relying on prospects
A's - Colon was their "ace" last year an he was a FA. No other pitcher the had produced more than a 2 WAR.
Jays - Dickey I guess is their "ace" and they gave up the farm to the mets to get him. He also had a terrible year. Buehrle produced more WAR and he was a FA
Braves - Mike Minor 1st round (7th pick) was their best pitcher but I'd hardly call him an ace. Probably more of a fringe #1 type. But I'll humor you and count him.
Brewers - Lohse was their best pitcher last year and was a FA. Yovani Gallardo(2nd rounder) was close but neither was even as good as Shark in terms of WAR so I don't think they count.
Cardinals - Adam Wainwright(1st round (29th pick) by ATL acquired in JD Drew trade). Lynn(1st round (39th pick)) was decent but more of a #2. Shelby Miller(1st round (19th pick))
Cubs - obviously very little at the MLB level
D-backs - Patrick Corbin(2nd rounder drafted by LAA acquired via Dan Haren trade) was their best pitcher.
Dodgers - Kershaw(1st round (7th pick)). Grienke is also #1 quality but he was a FA
Giants - Bumgarner(1st round (10th pick))
Indians - Justin Masterson(2nd rounder) is more of a #2 and was acquired via trade with the redsox for Victor Martinez
M's - Felix Hernandez(IFA), Hisashi Iwakuma was signed via posting process
Marlins - Jose Fernandez(1st round (14th pick))
Met's - Matt Harvey(1st round (7th pick))
Nationals - Stephen Strasburg(1st round #1) probably would be their ace when healthy though Jordan Zimmermann(2nd rounder) has pitched more/better than him the past several years
O's - Wei-Yin Chen was their best pitcher last year and he was posted and clearly wasn't a "ace"
Padres - Cashner was likely their best pitcher acquired via trade for Rizzo though I'd struggle to call him an ace. He had a 4.00 ERA on the road and a 1.95 ERA at home. Probably more of a #2/3
Phillies - Lee was their best pitcher but traded for. Hamels(1st round (17th pick)) counts though.
Pirates - Burnett and Liriano were their best two pitchers. One was a trade the other was a FA. Cole MIGHT be one but I think its a bit early to call it.
Rangers - Darvish was posted. Derek Holland(25th round) counts.
Rays - David Price(1st round 1st pick) counts.
Red Sox - Jon Lester(2nd round) was their best pitcher last year. Buchholz(1st round (42nd pick)) probably also counts
Reds - Mat Latos was traded for. I'll count Bailey(1st round (7th pick))
Rockies - Jhoulys Chacin(IFA) was their best pitcher. I REALLY struggle to call him an ace.
Royals - Shields was their best pitcher who they traded for.
Tigers - Sanchez and Scherzer were their best pitchers last year and they were traded for but I'll count them for Justin Verlander(1st round (2nd pick))
Twins - The got nothing worth talking about
White sox - Sale(1st round (13th pick))
Yankees - CC Sabathia was their "ace" and they signed him as a FA.

So even being fairly liberal in what you consider an "ace," only 16 of the 30 teams have home grown players that turned out that way. And of those almost all of them were top 15 picks many being top 10 picks.

Edit: to answer your earlier question why don't the cubs have someone like these guys, simple. They haven't drafted a pitcher in the top 15 picks since Prior at #2 in 2001. Bobby Brownlie was the 21st pick. Luke Hagerty was the 32nd pick. Chadd Blasko was the #36 pick. Matthew Clanton was the 38th pick. Mark Pawelek was the 20th pick. Andrew Cashner was the 19th pick. Hayden Simpson was the closest at 16. Add that to the fact that Hendry in general didn't produce much in terms of draft picks until his last draft. I seem to recall them not being very active in the latin america either though they did produce Castro and Zambrano out of that. So, I'm not sure if I'm just being revisionist there or if that was actually a thing.