Predictions for next season...?

[Jntg4]

FWIW this page says GIDP is worth -.85 runs and CS is worth -.40

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...+Worth&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari

So GIDP is worse than CS.

 

[AddisonStation]

If you put any stock into those numbers going for the steal to stay out of the double play would be worth it if you have a runner who has a high success rate.... But IMO only if he has a high success rate.

 

[AddisonStation]

So GIDP is worse than CS.

Ya, but I think you have to make that decision on who the runner is.

 

[IvyPickin87]

so basically steals are not worthless thanks for doing the research addison.

 

[Jntg4]

so basically steals are not worthless thanks for doing the research addison.

Exactly.

 

[AddisonStation]

so basically steals are not worthless thanks for doing the research addison.

Exactly.

Well not completely worthless but according to that data a SB is only worth .16 runs so the only way you are benefiting from a SB attempt is if the runner has a very high success rate. Of course IMO it all depends on situations.

 

[Jntg4]

Well not completely worthless but according to that data a SB is only worth .16 runs so the only way you are benefiting from a SB attempt is if the runner has a very high success rate. Of course IMO it all depends on situations.

How is that calculated, BTW?

 

[AddisonStation]

How is that calculated, BTW?

Honestly i really don't know but its from the book "The Book" which was referred to me by either Lefty or poodski. I dont remember. Id like to know myself...

 

[Jntg4]

Honestly i really don't know but its from the book "The Book" which was referred to me by either Lefty or poodski. I dont remember. Id like to know myself...

Lefty is a genius, so I'll agree with it.

 

[AddisonStation]

I would imagine it is calculated in some way like the following:

A runner attempts a steal. He is thrown out. The current batter hits a homerun therefor costing the team one run that could have been on the board.

Those kind of situations taken into consideration maybe?

Help Lefty?!

 

[wadedog21]

I predict the Cubs making a run at the wild card this year. The central appears to be one of the toughest divisions this year but hopefully we can compete and still be in the wild card race. If everyone stays healthy and performs like they can there is no reason we can't make a run at the division. I may be fooling myself but there is no reason to have high expectations!

 

[Jntg4]

I predict the Cubs making a run at the wild card this year. The central appears to be one of the toughest divisions this year but hopefully we can compete and still be in the wild card race. If everyone stays healthy and performs like they can there is no reason we can't make a run at the division. I may be fooling myself but there is no reason to have high expectations!

Toughest? No way. But it is the one where teams will be fighting to the final day. But AL East is toughest for sure.

 

[nickofypres]

Cubs will battle St. Louis for third. Brew Crew and Reds are just too good in comparison.

 

[Jntg4]

Cubs will battle St. Louis for third. Brew Crew and Reds are just too good in comparison.

Cincy sucks.

 

[nickofypres]

Yeah they had a losing record against teams with winning records. But it was the first season the baby Reds found their legs. They're a young team thats only going to get better with age.

 

[DewsSox79]

Yeah they had a losing record against teams with winning records. But it was the first season the baby Reds found their legs. They're a young team thats only going to get better with age.

agreed.

 

[Jntg4]

Yeah they had a losing record against teams with winning records. But it was the first season the baby Reds found their legs. They're a young team thats only going to get better with age.

But they were 13 games under against .500 and above teams. Then they lost Harang and Cabrera, who weren't replaced well, unless you think Renteria will carry over his World Series success to the Regular Season. they'll have a tougher schedule this year too. I'm just not impressed.

 

[nickofypres]

But they were 13 games under against .500 and above teams. Then they lost Harang and Cabrera, who weren't replaced well, unless you think Renteria will carry over his World Series success to the Regular Season. they'll have a tougher schedule this year too. I'm just not impressed.

Harang isn't really all that good. Infact, since 2007 he's 18-38 with a 4.71 ERA. Harang hasn't been the man since 2007. And I agree losing Cabrera sucks for them, but I don't think its a big deal. They still have a pretty good, young, solid core, whom may I repeat WILL GET BETTER!

:shrug2:

 

[Jntg4]

Harang isn't really all that good. Infact, since 20067 18-38 with a 4.71 ERA. Harang hasn't been the man since 2007. And I agree losing Cabrera sucks for them, but I don't think its a big deal. They still have a pretty good, young, solid core.

:shrug2:

I see a decline from Rolen and I don't see them being that good this year with the much tougher schedule.

I think they had the easiest schedule in MLB history last year, could anybody look that up (Games against teams over or at .500, and games against teams under .500).

 

[nickofypres]

I see a decline from Rolen and I don't see them being that good this year with the much tougher schedule.

I think they had the easiest schedule in MLB history last year, could anybody look that up (Games against teams over or at .500, and games against teams under .500).

Rolen is getting older yes, but his stats don't imply he's on the decline (not saying it won't happen) but his stats haven't really declined that much over the last few seasons.

I just glanced over their 2011 schedule, and I think the Reds win 91 games this season IMO. Its not that tough.