Quintana Is NOT The Answer

[SaberSox]

I get it. I do. On the surface, he looks great. He has a 1.98 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. But don't let that fool you into thinking he's the long-term answer for the 5th starter spot.

In the last two games, he has give up 19 hits. 19.

His xERA (eXpected ERA is 4.37). Why? Because he's not that good.

He only has 4.6 K/9 (which is really bad). But what's most telling is his strand-rate is 86%!! 75% is normal...86% means that an ERA correction (in the wrong direction) is extremely likely to happen. 86% is not sustainable and implies a great deal of luck (FWIW, his strand-rate yesterday was 89%).

19 hits.

It's been nice to see, but Quintana is not the answer.

 

[Jntg4]

Probably because Qunitana doesn't exist

 

[brett05]

What is Humber and Floyd during their last two starts???

 

[SaberSox]

What is Humber and Floyd during their last two starts???

Floyd has great stuff. His K/9 (8.4) is fantastic and his BB/9 (2.4) is acceptable and his K/BB is 3.5, which is also very good. His ERA is 5.38, but his xERA is 3.57. His strand-rate is 62%, which indciates some bad luck and should rebound which means his ERA will rebound (hence his xERA). And, not to mention, Floyd's HR/Flyball rate is 16%!! That's really, really high and really, really unlucky (it also doesn't help that he's a mental case).

Humber has a great K/9 too (8.5) but he walks way too many people (4.2 BB/9) and has a poorer K/BB rate (2.0). But he's also getting bad luck from a 62% strand rate and a HR/Flyball rate of 15%. His ERA is a hefty 5.92, but that should drop (xERA 4.26).

When evaluating pitchers, you HAVE to look at those peripheral skills and not just what is on the surface or what you see on TV. We must think long-term here. Quintana is primed to blow up and Floyd/Humber should improve. Especially Floyd.

But, this is baseball, so who the fuck knows. But numbers (usually) don't lie.

 

[SaberSox]

Probably because Qunitana doesn't exist

:angryfinger:

 

[ChitwnRyan60452]

Who said Quintana was the answer?

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Whether or not he's the answer depends on the question.

If the question is who do we keep and who do we put in the pen or send down? Yes, you keep Quintana in the rotation.

What I would like to see is Humber move to the pen, Floyd to 5, and Quintana to 4. Or switch Floyd and Quintana. It really doesn't matter. And then you send Stewart down to the minors.

Quintana is winning games right now and I think that's good enough to be a 4 or 5. I think Humber might do better in the pen to be honest. But who knows.

 

[GaelicSoxFan]

Floyd has great stuff. His K/9 (8.4) is fantastic and his BB/9 (2.4) is acceptable and his K/BB is 3.5, which is also very good. His ERA is 5.38, but his xERA is 3.57. His strand-rate is 62%, which indciates some bad luck and should rebound which means his ERA will rebound (hence his xERA). And, not to mention, Floyd's HR/Flyball rate is 16%!! That's really, really high and really, really unlucky (it also doesn't help that he's a mental case).

Humber has a great K/9 too (8.5) but he walks way too many people (4.2 BB/9) and has a poorer K/BB rate (2.0). But he's also getting bad luck from a 62% strand rate and a HR/Flyball rate of 15%. His ERA is a hefty 5.92, but that should drop (xERA 4.26).

When evaluating pitchers, you HAVE to look at those peripheral skills and not just what is on the surface or what you see on TV. We must think long-term here. Quintana is primed to blow up and Floyd/Humber should improve. Especially Floyd.

But, this is baseball, so who the fuck knows. But numbers (usually) don't lie.

We've been waiting for Floyd to improve for five fucking years. He is a

Spoiler

garbage ass

 

[SaberSox]

Whether or not he's the answer depends on the question.

The question is, what is the long-term solution to the White Sox 5th starter problem. And the answer is not Quintana for the reasons I stated in the initial post.

If the question is who do we keep and who do we put in the pen or send down? Yes, you keep Quintana in the rotation.

This is my point. What happens in his next outing when he gives up 6 runs? Then in his next outing when he does it again? Are you back to Humber getting that 5th SP spot? Quintana has already blown up; he just doesn't have the ERs to show for it....because he's been extremely lucky.

I have to think long-term. And if my only options are the lesser of two evils, I'm taking Humber (though I really don't want either of them long-term). Quintana does not have the skills, IMO, to be a MLB starter. 19 hits in 2 games. He should have an ERA of 5, but doesn't because, again, he has been extremely lucky. His luck is going to run out and the Sox will be right back to square one. At least with Humber, we know from his numbers that he is due for an ERA drop.

I just worry that everyone is fooled by Quintana's "great" last two outings, which were anything but great.

The only thing Quintana has going for him is his 2.0 BB/9, but the walks are so low because everyone is getting hits!

 

[Capt. Serious]

Floyd is what he is...a fucking mental head case.

 

[ClydeLee]

Floyds gotten worse every single season.

I didn't think long term answer and 5th starter spot could be said in the same phrase.

 

[brett05]

Missed it what are Floyd are Humbers numbers for the last two starts?

 

[SaberSox]

We've been waiting for Floyd to improve for five fucking years.

Dude, believe me. I feel your pain. It's really frustrating to watch him sometimes. But I have to keep it in perspective that 5 years ago, he was only 22. Pitchers don't usually peak until they're 29, and right now, Floyd is only 27.

If you look at his numbers, he's got really good stuff. There are two things wrong with Floyd. 1) He has been unlucky in many areas like low strand rate and high % of home runs/fly ball.

Even in his last 31 days where he has managed to sport an abysmal 10.52 ERA, his K/9 rate was 8.8, his walk rate 2.1 and his K/BB rate 4.2. All really good numbers. He only stranded 46% of runners (which means 54% of his earned base runners have scored)! That is 30% lower than average. Only 39% of his pitches have been fly balls, which is really low, but 29% of those have left the park. This is ridiculously abnormal. Even in his 10.52 ERA, his xERA was only 3.79 in the last 31 days.

Basically, all of what I just said amounts to one thing. EXTREME BAD LUCK.

And I know it doesn't mean much to most because the results have been awful, but there is no way this bad luck can continue, right?

The second thing wrong with Floyd is his mental game. There's no way to prove that the bad luck is derived directly from his inability to stay out of his own head, but if he can go out and have one great outing, I think he'll be back on track.

Hopefully.

 

[Capt. Serious]

Missed it what are Floyd are Humbers numbers for the last two starts?

Humber- 8.71 ERA

Floyd- 7.36 ERA

 

[SaberSox]

Missed it what are Floyd are Humbers numbers for the last two starts?

Why are you so fixated on the last two starts? It's all about longevity, the entire body of work, and who has the skills to perform long term and who doesn't.

And the only numbers I gave on Quintana's last two starts were 19 hits all other numbers were all of his starts (which, I understand, aren't many).

Last two starts. Humber: 13 hits; Floyd: 14 hits.

 

[SaberSox]

Floyds gotten worse every single season.

Skill-wise, that is completely false. Look at his numbers in the attachment, more specifically in the highlighted rows. xERA continuously drops, BB/9 (CTL) continuously drops, K/9 (DOM) continuously on the rise, K/BB (CMD) continuously on the rise.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Except for the fact that getting out of jams is part of being a good pitcher. I'm not saying to make him be one of the top pitchers in the rotation.

I'm saying that he's alright as the fifth starter. He is and was winning games and that's all you want from a fifth starter. To go out and win a couple games or at least keep the team in it.

Humber isn't capable of doing that. He's been alright and has shown some signs of being good, but it isn't enough. I hate the stat "Wins" but you want a pitcher that's going to give you a shot to win. Humber isn't doing that.

And at the very least keep the rotation as is and move Quintana to the bullpen and just get Stewart out. Career 5.87 ERA isn't exactly something to brag about.

 

[DewsSox79]

Why are you so fixated on the last two starts? It's all about longevity, the entire body of work, and who has the skills to perform long term and who doesn't.

And the only numbers I gave on Quintana's last two starts were 19 hits all other numbers were all of his starts (which, I understand, aren't many).

Last two starts. Humber: 13 hits; Floyd: 14 hits.

unless you own a delorian with a flex capasitor there is no way that can be stated as absolute fact. You can use any metric you want, the fact is the metrics cant predict the future as much as some like to always fall back onto "projections"

he is a soft tossing lefty, il take singles and hits he gives up over walking people to drive up his their pitch counts and throwing up meatballs for homeruns all day long.

 

[brett05]

^ this

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Exactly. Who gives a shit that Floyd has an xERA that's good? Not once has he gotten his real ERA close to that.

He just doesn't win games like we'd like. I'm fine with him as a 4 or 5. But I'd take the guy who wins games or gives the the Sox a good chance to win over the one that hasn't won but has a good projected ERA.