Random cubs/baseball talks

[JP Hochbaum]

So, I've just been looking at some stats, and I'm struck by the stat lines of two different players, who are having some comparable factors in their seasons. One of them is known as a flashy defender, but is otherwise not regarded all that highly by the national baseball press. The other has been hailed by the baseball press as the Second Coming of the Baseball Messiah, even though Kyle Schwarber has shown better defensive chops than him this year.

As of this morning, the first guy is slashing .269/.300/.570, with 52 total hits, 9 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 13 HRs, 32 RS, 42 RBIs, and 45 SOs. The second guy is slashing 283/.418/.567, with 53 total hits, 11 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 14 HRs, 39 RS, 39 RBIs and 68 SOs. Note the second guy has exactly the same number of RBIs and RS -- a sign of lack of peak productivity, either of the player himself or by the lineup as constructed.

The first guy is Javy Baez. The second guy is Aaron Judge.

Yep, Judge takes a lot more walks, playing in the #2 slot in the lineup every day. Javy has been played in nearly every slot in the order, batting in front of everyone from KB to the pitcher's slot.

Judge is by far and away worse at striking out. Javy may be a free swinger, but he ain't nothing compared to Judge. Considering the rest of the numbers, Javy puts the ball into play a hell of a lot more than Judge does.

Considering the one major difference in their stats -- Judge has walked 42 times, as compared to Javy's six, count 'em, six, walks (four of which have been intentional) -- and considering the big lumber that comes up behind Judge, I have to come to the conclusion that the additional seven runs Judge has scored over Javy is *way* less than you would expect from the walk inequality. And the fact that Judge has the same number of runs scored as RBIs is another indicator of under-performance -- the guy must be hitting mostly solo shots, otherwise he'd be getting more guys in in front of him.

So, you have two guys with pretty even performance, except for walks, which don't appear to be having as large of an impact for the Yankees as you'd expect. And yet, the New York-dominated media still hail Aaron Judge as the be-all and end-all of baseball performance.

Which just goes to show, the New York-based baseball media have their heads up their asses, from which vantage point they can only see baseball played in New York...

This is why wOBA is an important stat. IT weights hits higher than it does walks.

Baez has OBA of .300 but wOBA of .359

Judge goes from .418 to .418

So while Judge is still doing better as an on base machine, you could see how much contact helps Javy bring up his wOBA.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So, I've just been looking at some stats, and I'm struck by the stat lines of two different players, who are having some comparable factors in their seasons. One of them is known as a flashy defender, but is otherwise not regarded all that highly by the national baseball press. The other has been hailed by the baseball press as the Second Coming of the Baseball Messiah, even though Kyle Schwarber has shown better defensive chops than him this year.

As of this morning, the first guy is slashing .269/.300/.570, with 52 total hits, 9 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 13 HRs, 32 RS, 42 RBIs, and 45 SOs. The second guy is slashing 283/.418/.567, with 53 total hits, 11 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 14 HRs, 39 RS, 39 RBIs and 68 SOs. Note the second guy has exactly the same number of RBIs and RS -- a sign of lack of peak productivity, either of the player himself or by the lineup as constructed.

The first guy is Javy Baez. The second guy is Aaron Judge.

Yep, Judge takes a lot more walks, playing in the #2 slot in the lineup every day. Javy has been played in nearly every slot in the order, batting in front of everyone from KB to the pitcher's slot.

Judge is by far and away worse at striking out. Javy may be a free swinger, but he ain't nothing compared to Judge. Considering the rest of the numbers, Javy puts the ball into play a hell of a lot more than Judge does.

Considering the one major difference in their stats -- Judge has walked 42 times, as compared to Javy's six, count 'em, six, walks (four of which have been intentional) -- and considering the big lumber that comes up behind Judge, I have to come to the conclusion that the additional seven runs Judge has scored over Javy is *way* less than you would expect from the walk inequality. And the fact that Judge has the same number of runs scored as RBIs is another indicator of under-performance -- the guy must be hitting mostly solo shots, otherwise he'd be getting more guys in in front of him.

So, you have two guys with pretty even performance, except for walks, which don't appear to be having as large of an impact for the Yankees as you'd expect. And yet, the New York-dominated media still hail Aaron Judge as the be-all and end-all of baseball performance.

Which just goes to show, the New York-based baseball media have their heads up their asses, from which vantage point they can only see baseball played in New York...

Aaron Judge has a 167 wRC+ and a .985 OPS, Javy Baez has a 127 wRC+ and a .870 OPS. Clearly Judge is the more productive player by a fairly large margin, judging by wRC+ Judge is a 67% above league average run producer while Baez is a 27% above average run producer . RBI and runs scored are essentially team stats, not individual stats. In no way can you draw the conclusion that they are essentially equal offensive players. OBA is important and gives your team more opportunities to score runs, you can't just ignore it.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

OBA is important and gives your team more opportunities to score runs, you can't just ignore it.

Which is what I always thought. but... only seven more runs?

Really?

Scoring seven more runs over roughly 50 games makes Judge so much of a greater performer?

I just don't buy it. Not compared to the 37 more times he got on base than Baez did.

The fact that Judge is not a fast or smart baserunner, while Baez is elite in those categories, may also have something to do with scoring once you get on base.

 

[TL1961]

So, I've just been looking at some stats, and I'm struck by the stat lines of two different players, who are having some comparable factors in their seasons. One of them is known as a flashy defender, but is otherwise not regarded all that highly by the national baseball press. The other has been hailed by the baseball press as the Second Coming of the Baseball Messiah, even though Kyle Schwarber has shown better defensive chops than him this year.

As of this morning, the first guy is slashing .269/.300/.570, with 52 total hits, 9 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 13 HRs, 32 RS, 42 RBIs, and 45 SOs. The second guy is slashing 283/.418/.567, with 53 total hits, 11 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 14 HRs, 39 RS, 39 RBIs and 68 SOs. Note the second guy has exactly the same number of RBIs and RS -- a sign of lack of peak productivity, either of the player himself or by the lineup as constructed.

The first guy is Javy Baez. The second guy is Aaron Judge.

Yep, Judge takes a lot more walks, playing in the #2 slot in the lineup every day. Javy has been played in nearly every slot in the order, batting in front of everyone from KB to the pitcher's slot.

Judge is by far and away worse at striking out. Javy may be a free swinger, but he ain't nothing compared to Judge. Considering the rest of the numbers, Javy puts the ball into play a hell of a lot more than Judge does.

Considering the one major difference in their stats -- Judge has walked 42 times, as compared to Javy's six, count 'em, six, walks (four of which have been intentional) -- and considering the big lumber that comes up behind Judge, I have to come to the conclusion that the additional seven runs Judge has scored over Javy is *way* less than you would expect from the walk inequality. And the fact that Judge has the same number of runs scored as RBIs is another indicator of under-performance -- the guy must be hitting mostly solo shots, otherwise he'd be getting more guys in in front of him.

So, you have two guys with pretty even performance, except for walks, which don't appear to be having as large of an impact for the Yankees as you'd expect. And yet, the New York-dominated media still hail Aaron Judge as the be-all and end-all of baseball performance.

Which just goes to show, the New York-based baseball media have their heads up their asses, from which vantage point they can only see baseball played in New York...

You are very biased in your reporting and conclusions.

If the batters behind Judge never drive him in it does not make his performance equal to Javy’s. It reflects on their performance. Judge’s obp is vastly superior to that of Javy, regardless of how you try to spin it.

Dropping in the implication that Judge walks more due to where he bats in the order is silly. Then flat out stating that his run total somehow lessens his obp is equally absurd.

 

[TL1961]

Aaron Judge has played one season, and in it, hit twice as many HRs as Javy in his best year.

Perhaps THAT has a little to do with why the wicked, terribly biased media speak well of him

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Which is what I always thought. but... only seven more runs?

Really?

Scoring seven more runs over roughly 50 games makes Judge so much of a greater performer?

I just don't buy it. Not compared to the 37 more times he got on base than Baez did.

The fact that Judge is not a fast or smart baserunner, while Baez is elite in those categories, may also have something to do with scoring once you get on base.

Getting on base gives the hitters behind you opportunities to score. Whether those teammates actually batted him home is irrelevant. The fact remains that the more you get on base the higher percentage is that you'll score. Whether or not the player will score is not entirely in his control. Let's take a bit of an absurd example. Say one player gets on base 10 times in a row but fails to score, while another player gets on base 3 out 10 times but scores three runs. Would you say that the player who scored the 3 runs did his job better? I would assume that the answer is obvious that the guy with the 1.0 OBP put his team in a better chance to win than the guy with the .300 OBP regardless of the results. However you seem to be saying the opposite in your argument. How does that make sense?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Which is what I always thought. but... only seven more runs?

Really?

Scoring seven more runs over roughly 50 games makes Judge so much of a greater performer?

I just don't buy it. Not compared to the 37 more times he got on base than Baez did.

The fact that Judge is not a fast or smart baserunner, while Baez is elite in those categories, may also have something to do with scoring once you get on base.

OBA is an individual stat. RBI/RS is a team stat.

 

[fatbeard]

So, I've just been looking at some stats, and I'm struck by the stat lines of two different players, who are having some comparable factors in their seasons. One of them is known as a flashy defender, but is otherwise not regarded all that highly by the national baseball press. The other has been hailed by the baseball press as the Second Coming of the Baseball Messiah, even though Kyle Schwarber has shown better defensive chops than him this year.

As of this morning, the first guy is slashing .269/.300/.570, with 52 total hits, 9 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 13 HRs, 32 RS, 42 RBIs, and 45 SOs. The second guy is slashing 283/.418/.567, with 53 total hits, 11 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 14 HRs, 39 RS, 39 RBIs and 68 SOs. Note the second guy has exactly the same number of RBIs and RS -- a sign of lack of peak productivity, either of the player himself or by the lineup as constructed.

The first guy is Javy Baez. The second guy is Aaron Judge.

Yep, Judge takes a lot more walks, playing in the #2 slot in the lineup every day. Javy has been played in nearly every slot in the order, batting in front of everyone from KB to the pitcher's slot.

Judge is by far and away worse at striking out. Javy may be a free swinger, but he ain't nothing compared to Judge. Considering the rest of the numbers, Javy puts the ball into play a hell of a lot more than Judge does.

Considering the one major difference in their stats -- Judge has walked 42 times, as compared to Javy's six, count 'em, six, walks (four of which have been intentional) -- and considering the big lumber that comes up behind Judge, I have to come to the conclusion that the additional seven runs Judge has scored over Javy is *way* less than you would expect from the walk inequality. And the fact that Judge has the same number of runs scored as RBIs is another indicator of under-performance -- the guy must be hitting mostly solo shots, otherwise he'd be getting more guys in in front of him.

So, you have two guys with pretty even performance, except for walks, which don't appear to be having as large of an impact for the Yankees as you'd expect. And yet, the New York-dominated media still hail Aaron Judge as the be-all and end-all of baseball performance.

Which just goes to show, the New York-based baseball media have their heads up their asses, from which vantage point they can only see baseball played in New York...

"Two guys with pretty even performance?" Aaron Judge put up 8.2 fWAR in a year; Javy Baez has 5.4 fWAR in his career. Judge had the fourth-best rookie season in MLB history (back to 1871) and shattered McGuire's rookie HR record. And you're seriously questioning why Judge gets more press than Baez?

 

[JP Hochbaum]

What makes Baez special is that he is one of the more dangerous hitters in the game because of his ability to hit pitches well outside the zone. It makes it very difficult to pitch around him.

That being said, his best strength is also his weakness. Because of this ability he swings at way too many pitches. He needs to realize that just because he can hit a pitch a foot out of the zone for a homer doesn't mean he should keep trying to. If he were to improve the way Russell, Schwarber and Bryant have in just one year, he'd likely be an MVP.

 

[beckdawg]

i'm not going to beat a dead horse here as others have largely covered the points on Judge I would have made. But there's another angle I wanna hit this at. The reason why OBP is in vogue isn't just the walks. It's how high walk rate players tend to play. What I mean by that is sure the walks are great but the real benefit here is making a pitcher work. Baez averages 3.37 pitches per plate appearance. Judge averages 4.31. Now that may seem like nothing because who cares about 1 pitch? The thing is it's not 1 pitch it's 4 pitches over the course of most games if not more. And that's the average. Judge is going to have long 8-9 pitch at bats to keep that number high. Baez usually isn't going to go over 5 with a number that low. And the thing is with pitch counts it's not exactly the number of pitches you throw but it's how difficult the pitches are. For example, if you are just mowing down a team you probably can throw 110+ pitches without much wear on you. However, if you're constantly in jams having to throw the nastiest stuff you have as hard as you can that's going to wear you down.

As that pertains to these two players, Baez is gonna do what he's gonna do but he's not going to make you work. Judge on the other hand is someone who's going to make you work to get him out and that has an added benefit of kicking out starters earlier in games and make anyone else the pitcher faces in that inning harder to get out because often times they will have seen everything the guy throws.

 

[anotheridiot]

If a guy hit .500 seeing 3 pitches per at bat, hit 40 home runs and drove in 120, he would still be slammed for not taking walks.

 

[fatbeard]

If a guy hit .500 seeing 3 pitches per at bat, hit 40 home runs and drove in 120, he would still be slammed for not taking walks.

What an unbelievably stupid thought.

 

[CSF77]

Reyes off DL in STL. word is rotation; not limited

 

[chibears55]

Some good news

https://twitter.com/TonyAndracki23/status/1001858364517879809?s=19

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

Montgomery would have had Sat regardless. Yu can’t come off before the 7th. Weird tweet. All that needed to be said was not expected to go beyond the 15 days

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Montgomery would have had Sat regardless. Yu can’t come off before the 7th. Weird tweet. All that needed to be said was not expected to go beyond the 15 days

He would be eligible to come off the DL on Saturday. The thought was he might have only missed the one start.

 

[CSF77]

He would be eligible to come off the DL on Saturday. The thought was he might have only missed the one start.

Got ya. I didnt know that they abolished the 15 day and reinstated the old 10 day.

 

[CSF77]

Swear too many knuckle heads out there whining about Darvish and blaming Theo for not meeting Boras’ demands for Jake.

All I can think of is Lester year 1 to now. 2015 he played 2nd fiddle to Jake and was a disappointment. WS later where he ran #2 in the Cy young....now he is looking like his old self.

Too early with Yu. There was a 126 mil investment and his elbow acted up. The one that TJ happened. You error on caution vs label a guy.

If you invested 126 mil into something you protect that investment vs run it to the ground while spitting on it as it dies.

Some peeps are plain dumb.

 

[chibears55]

000

 

[chibears55]

7th in NL in batting average, playing GG defense and not on All Star Ballot..
For cubs outfield..
Heyward Schwarber and
Zobrist????[
The guy plays twice a week
Who picks the players Maddon